you're both wrong; HM is just less wrong than Leon. Snake will be beating Bowser.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

We shall see.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Ryu will beat Bowser.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 36/40 points
Current Match Prediction: Solid Snake vs. Zelda

hmm.. what's the BOP say for Alucard/Sora?
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http://picturesofwalls.com

Sora won the BOP barely.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 36/40 points
Current Match Prediction: Solid Snake vs. Zelda

Something like 67-63, in favor of Sora.
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti

There's nothing wrong with Ganon getting 55% on Zelda.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

ah. I was gonna say that tonight's board vote should be interesting, since Alucard is a board favourite and Sora is not, yet Sora is the "favourite". it would have been a nice time to see how much bracket voting happens.. but if they're that close, nevermind. based on the round 1 results, it looks like Alucard should jump out to an early lead.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

I think Alucard will get the lead, and then get buried by the day vote.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 36/40 points
Current Match Prediction: Solid Snake vs. Zelda

Alucard is among the best with the first night vote. He kept decently close to Ganondorf until morning last year.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

I think Alucard will get the lead.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

How's Sora's day vote?

one would expect Alucard to have an advantage with both night votes and Sora to have the day vote. never know, though.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

Alucard is terrible with the day vote. He went from 63% on Kratos to 55% by the end of the day.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 36/40 points
Current Match Prediction: Solid Snake vs. Zelda

Not that good, from what we've seen. He hardly did anything with it against Agent 47 (though it did get him above 70%). He lost about half a percent against Samus and he lost a little against HK-47. He did gain against Hayabusa though.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

*60
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Summer 2005 Contest - 36/40 points
Current Match Prediction: Solid Snake vs. Zelda

Alucard is terrible with the day vote. He went from 63% on Kratos to 55% by the end of the day.

...

He never was above 61%, and he didn't fall with the day vote, he never stabilized at a high percentage. The whole match was him losing percent.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

There's nothing wrong with Ganon getting 55% on Zelda.

Except that it puts Ganon at 34% in 2k3 stats, when he should be closer to 30%, according to Knuckles, Mega Man, Sam Fisher, Luca Blight, etc.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

...

He never was above 61%, and he didn't fall with the day vote, he never stabilized at a high percentage. The whole match was him losing percent.

I know, I fixed the number. See post above.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 36/40 points
Current Match Prediction: Solid Snake vs. Zelda

Well, it's not like it matters. Ganondorf's performance yesterday doesn't look good at all for Sora.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 36/40 points
Current Match Prediction: Solid Snake vs. Zelda

Alucard is going to dominate Sora throughout the match, starting with around 58% and moving down to 53% by the end. Auron would barely beat Alucard, and you guys think Sora could do it? Sheesh.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

It would imply that Ganondorf has gained moreso than Zelda, if that's the case.

Strangely enough, Ganondorf (through 2003 Alucard) would have been expected to get 54.33% on completely unadjusted Auron.

Sora 2004 would be expected to get 52.36% on 2003 Alucard, for the record.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Auron would barely beat Alucard, and you guys think Sora could do it? Sheesh.

I don't think Auron would have much trouble with Alucard.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 36/40 points
Current Match Prediction: Solid Snake vs. Zelda

Except that it puts Ganon at 34% in 2k3 stats, when he should be closer to 30%, according to Knuckles, Mega Man, Sam Fisher, Luca Blight, etc.

....

This isn't 2k3....
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Is this still on target for over 100K votes?
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

Yeah, it's 4000 ahead of Ness/CJ, and it's almost exactly even with Vivi/Zelda. We'll break 100k easily.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

I don't think Auron would have much trouble with Alucard.

Assuming constant Ganon from 2k4 to 2k5, Auron only wins with 53.3%. You were saying?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Assuming constant Ganon from 2k4 to 2k5, Auron only wins with 53.3%. You were saying?

...That's having trouble?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Assuming constant Ganon from 2k4 to 2k5, Auron only wins with 53.3%. You were saying?

The stats had Zelda winning today. You were saying?
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Summer 2005 Contest - 36/40 points
Current Match Prediction: Solid Snake vs. Zelda

Except that it puts Ganon at 34% in 2k3 stats, when he should be closer to 30%, according to Knuckles, Mega Man, Sam Fisher, Luca Blight, etc.

....

This isn't 2k3....

Yeah, I know, but one would expect the ratio between Ganon and Zelda to stay fairly similar.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/24/2005 11:15:40 PM | #326
Yeah, it's 4000 ahead of Ness/CJ, and it's almost exactly even with Vivi/Zelda. We'll break 100k easily.

Cheers. Trying to gauge whether I can get another prophet challenge right. I think 8000 may be a bit conservative unless Zelda can benefit from the night vote a bit.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

The stats had Zelda winning today. You were saying?

That's just the unadjusted stats. Those same stats have CATS over Ganon. I was using adjustments, obviously.

And...forgot about MGS3 and MGA? Was there a new Zelda game I'm unaware of that had Ganon but not Zelda?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

That's just the unadjusted stats. Those same stats have CATS over Ganon. I was using adjustments, obviously.

And...forgot about MGS3 and MGA? Was there a new Zelda game I'm unaware of that had Ganon but not Zelda?

Of course I remember MGS3 and MGA. That's why I've said since yesterday that Snake would get 55%. And the stats were expecting at least a close match.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 36/40 points
Current Match Prediction: Solid Snake vs. Zelda

From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/24/2005 11:16:40 PM | #329
The stats had Zelda winning today. You were saying?

What? Are you trying to work over different years or something? There's only one set of stats with Zelda in. Trying to adjust over different years with any sort of precision is silly.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

Assuming constant Ganon from 2k4 to 2k5, Auron only wins with 53.3%. You were saying?

...That's having trouble?

Heh, only when you think about the actual match, I suppose. Alucard would probably be winning for quite a while in that match.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Auron's night vote is pretty good, too. I don't think Alucard would ever lead.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Of course I remember MGS3 and MGA. That's why I've said since yesterday that Snake would get 55%. And the stats were expecting at least a close match.

Assume MGS3 and MGA pushed Snake back up to 2k3 levels, and that Zelda went up 3% because of ZCE/TP/whatever pushed up Ganon and Link, and she gets 46% in this match. When there are outside factors, you have to adjust your expectations to match them. I don't see why Auron or Alucard would have any reason for a big change though.

Auron's night vote is pretty good, too. I don't think Alucard would ever lead.

Hmm, looks like you're right. Alucard was only ahead for the first hour or so.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

That seems kinda ridiculous to me now.

It's not ridiculous in the slightest. I think any gain that Zelda made was minimal between 2003 and 2004. I really have no problem with dropping Vivi down to 23% this year as opposed to his 25.55% last year, which would predict this match quite perfectly if you hold Zelda constant from 2003.

And Ganon in 2003 was projected to get something like 56. 37% against Zelda. I could also see a greater reason for Ganon to increase -- going with that whole overrated business -- than I would for Zelda.

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To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.

And Ganon in 2003 was projected to get something like 56. 37% against Zelda. I could also see a greater reason for Ganon to increase -- going with that whole overrated business -- than I would for Zelda.


Ganon in 2k3 is clearly overrated. Adjust him with Tidus 2k4 and he loses to Zelda. Of course, I wouldn't adjust him down quite that far, but he wouldn't get over 56% by any stretch.

It's not ridiculous in the slightest. I think any gain that Zelda made was minimal between 2003 and 2004. I really have no problem with dropping Vivi down to 23% this year as opposed to his 25.55% last year, which would predict this match quite perfectly if you hold Zelda constant from 2003.


Why would Zelda's gain be less than Ganon's? Both of them had equal representation relative to the rest of the series in ZCE, and there's been more TP info on Zelda than on Ganon.

And Vivi and Auron both had fairly similar performances on Sephiroth, or did you just want to forget about that? Or did Vivi perhaps rSFF Seph? Did Seph get "sword SFF" on Auron? Please.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Looks like Advent Children has been officially delayed, folks.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Well, with the AC delay being pretty much confirmed now, the FFVII crew has it's work cut out for it. The Japanese version is still coming out on time, but I doubt a Japanese release will do anything of significance.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]

From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/24/2005 11:50:38 PM | #340
Looks like Advent Children has been officially delayed, folks.

Is that the one with Vincent in that people were saying would carry him to winning his division, the ToC and the presidency of the USA, or is that the other one?
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

That's Dirge of Cerberus, not AC.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/24/2005 11:52:12 PM | #343
That's Dirge of Cerberus, not AC.

OK. I really have no interest in either of them so it's easy to mix the two up.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

Looks like Advent Children has been officially delayed, folks.

Surprise, surprise. After HM said that there was no way it would be delayed, was there really any doubt? ;)

And good for Snake; he certainly deserves this win. He'll still be losing to Bowser, but this is nice to see. Tomorrow's match is meh to me, though it should be close, but I can't wait until Kirby beats Tidus. Pity I won't know about it until Monday.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

but I can't wait until Kirby beats Tidus. Pity I won't know about it until Monday.

Sorry to disappoint you but Kirby's not beating Tidus

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka

Looks like Advent Children has been officially delayed, folks.

GG Cloud.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 38/42 points
Current Match Prediction: Alucard vs. Sora

After HM said that there was no way it would be delayed, was there really any doubt? ;)

Apparently, Square Enix stated themselves at their Party 05 that they never officially announced a release date for American to begin with. Nomura said that he would was not going to delay it anymore, and he actually held true to that. It's still being released in Japan on September 13th.

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To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.

I don't know how this match helps you stay confident in Bowser > Snake, personally. This kinda keeps it a toss up.

Not that Bowser is even getting past Ryu though.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

I don't know how anyone can believe Bowser will take Snake after this match.