From: Lopen | Posted: 8/24/2005 7:17:32 PM | #249
It really comes down to whether you think Ken and Chun Li have a significant gap between em... I think they do.

FWIW I think there's no relevant difference between (Ryu apart) any of the original 12 SF2 characters. Certainly not enough that I'd pick one over a random opponent and not any of the others.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

While I don't think she'll DOMINATE, per say, I currently think Tifa's taking down Sonic and Mega Man.

It's valid reasoning, but once again I'm putting the linearity of the X-stats into question. We've only seen 4 matches out of Vyse, and 2 of them were blowout losses. It's not like we have loads of data on him like we have for a Samus, or a Cloud, or a Sonic.

We've constantly seen instances where we've overrated a character because they were able to blow out a weaker character, only to sour those expectations a little later. Samus, Mega Man, and now Zelda are a few examples of this.

What we have to realize is that we shouldn't cling on to linearity so much. Zelda may be much more liked than Vivi, but does that automatically make people like her more than Solid Snake. You can use numbers and statistics all you want, but the bottom line still is that a character has to DISPLACE a character to beat them directly.

Tifa may be overwhelmingly liked more than Vyse, but to beat Sonic we have to assume that voters like Tifa better than Sonic. Of course we don't know where Tifa ranks, due to this being her first contest. But it is EXTREMELY hard to be able to break into the ranks of the most popular characters. A character may gain enough popularity to blow fodder out of the water, but the bottom line is that character STILL has to displace the elite characters to beat them. Of course, if anybody can break through the ranks, it would be Tifa or Vincent, since they may very well be already there. But I think the linearity dissipates once you get near the top of the ranks. It's a theory still in question, but it's one I sincerely believe.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

You do know Ryu never lost to a character outside the noble 9 (neither has Knuckles, but you get the point)
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.

You do know Ryu never lost to a character outside the noble 9 (neither has Knuckles, but you get the point)

Neither has Bowser.

so is knuckles stronger than shadow?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

^who was that to?
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

w00t! I knew Snake wouldn't let me down.
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Kirby 3:16
55th/125 in the Guru Standings. Why did I pick Kratos? *sigh*

Alright, Zelda closed the percentage gap. I was happy that Snake was winning, but Zelda was doing too badly. Good to see she brought it over 45%.

67.25% had Ganon over Auron. Very impressive. The Spring Contest effect is still helping him. Now let's see how many idiots put him over Samus.

Anyway, I'm going to guess the consensus is that Snake has returned to around his 2003 level because of the higher vote totals. Good thing I have him in the Final 4!
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Snake vs. Zelda - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Snake (36/40)

Haha, Zelda actually won that update.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

I'm going to say over 30% have Ganon winning next round.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

personally, I think that Ken and Chun Li are close. Ken might be a little stronger, but not by a lot.

Well, if Ken is stronger than Chun-Li statistically, Bowser is closer to his 2003 number than his Sp2K5 number.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

And Zelda has won several updates. Auron did, too. In a match within 55/45, the other character usually does win a few updates here and there.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

I don't disagree with what you're saying therealmnm; you're right, even. I just don't think it's right enough in this case, degrading as that may sound (and no offense is intended, as always).
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Hmmm....is Zelda getting....the after-school vote....possibly?
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti

Also, I'd have to say that if any characters have the best opportunity to break into the Noble Nine, it'd have to be Vincent or Tifa. FFVII is a great force here.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

I agree with mnm. I don't think anyone completely trusts the linearity. I will say that I trust the linearity amongst the top a lot more than I do the bottom. I don't trust linearity amongst fodder at all.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

Linearity at the top has caused more trouble than at the bottom, I would say.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Also, I'd have to say that if any characters have the best opportunity to break into the Noble Nine, it'd have to be Vincent or Tifa. FFVII is a great force here.

Oh, no doubt. I already stated that they might already BE more popular than many of the elites. I was just stating that I won't base their ranking off of one match, especially since we've seen many times before where we've overestimated a character based on an earlier match.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

This match actually lines up pretty well if you hold Zelda constant since 2003 and use Snake's adjusted ranking, both of which aren't something that's really out there to begin with.

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To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.

well, there are fewer instances where it goes completely haywire - MM/Link, for example. when someone beats a midcarder like Vivi with 60%, they're suddenly projected up there with the Noble Nine. that's a big jump to me. same with Tifa - I'm not convinced that 78% on a cult character like Vyse is enough to take her over Sonic or Mega Man.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

The only reason people had trouble accepting that is Vivi. The 20XX adjustment is looking better and better, really.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Just to make sure, the Noble Nine are:
Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Samus, Crono, Sonic, Megaman, Mario, Snake?

Not in that order, but those are indeed the "Noble Nine."

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To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.

I think linearity is fine at the top of the ranks. Samus, Mega Man, and now Zelda had blowouts early and went on to still snuggly fit into their expected ranks. There may be fluctuation caused by direct matchups between the top characters, as we've seen with Mega Man vs. Link, and Sonic vs. Cloud. Some characters may very well increase or decrease slightly like we've seen for Cloud and Sonic.

It's usually the lower characters that take the huge drops in the stats. Some have reasons, but some have no excuse for dropping so far in strength. Nonlinearity is probably the only thing that would explain it.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Where would Vivi rank if you used 2k3 Zelda?
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Vivi would rank around the 23% mark on 2004 Link, if you hold Zelda constant from 2003.

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To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.

24.50... or below DK.

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http://picturesofwalls.com

mine is through 2k3 Link.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

24.50... or below DK.

. . . what? Vivi ends up quite a bit above Donkey Kong. In fact, he would still beat DK, but with around 52% this time.

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To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.

Just for kicks...

Characters who have been in more than two contests and have never lost to anyone besides the Noble Nine:
Bowser
Ryu
Zero
Frog
Knuckles
Squall
Fox
Aeris
Zelda
Ken
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?

mine is through 2k3 Link.

Don't use 2003 Donkey Kong for that then.

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To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.

Solid Snake based on 2003 Zelda: 33.24%, slightly higher than his adjusted 2004 value.

Solid Snake based on 2004 Vivi: 39.47%, above Mega Man

Zelda based on unadjusted Snake: 27.09%, almost exactly even with Vivi's 2004 level.

Vivi based on unadjusted Snake: 21.91%, slightly above Viewtiful Joe.

Vivi based on adjusted Snake: 24.35%, right below KOS-MOS.

Vivi based on DK (Sam Fisher): 26.90%, not far below his 2004 value.

Zelda based on Vivi (DK/Sam Fisher): 33.25%

Snake based on Vivi (DK/Sam Fisher): 36.49%, right below Sonic.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

oh, good old Mega Man. my bad.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

Good stuff. I can see things lining up in my eyes if I take certain things into consideration. Of course, I'm not going to say my thoughts yet...
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

14:10:00 54.34% 45.66%
14:05:00 54.35% 45.65%
14:00:00 54.35% 45.65%
13:55:01 54.40% 45.60%
13:50:01 54.41% 45.59%
13:45:01 54.41% 45.59%

Heh heh. Nice pattern.

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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti

Popularity chain on GameFAQs:

Link >= Cloud >> Sephiroth >> Samus > Mario = Crono > Mega Man > Sonic > Solid Snake

IMO. Cloud may upset Link due to Advent Children, and Mario may SFF Samus, but I would say that is about right on the money.
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"Frog > Samus, because Samus is a woman." - Dino Duck

Crono is above Mario until proven otherwise. Winning 2 out of 3 meetings is irrelevant when Crono won the last one decisively.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Link > Cloud >> Samus > Sephiroth >>> Crono > Mario >> Mega Man > Sonic = Solid Snake

There we go, fixified and everything. You can't have Sephiroth too high, or you get crazy stuff like Ganon > Mario.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

I'm glad Snake has casted all doubt... :D
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Summer 2005 Contest - 36/40 points
Current Match Prediction: Solid Snake vs. Zelda

You can't have Sephiroth too high, or you get crazy stuff like Ganon > Mario.

Which having Sephiroth > Samus does not create. It only creates that problem if Sephiroth is very near Link's 2003 level, as he was when he beat Mario.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Based on how I think it'll play out this year. . .

Cloud > Link > Sephiroth > Mario > Samus >= Crono > Sonic > > Solid Snake.

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To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.

So you think Mega Man dropped out of the NN HM?

Put Mega Man under Crono and above Sonic. The only one who I don't think is in that "elite" set is Solid Snake.

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To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.

From: Dranze | Posted: 8/24/2005 5:14:06 AM | Message Detail
Anyone here think Bowser (If he gets past Ryu) still has a chance?

No, and Bowser never had much of a chance in the first place.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 36/40 points
Current Match Prediction: Solid Snake vs. Zelda

Bowser will still be beating Solid Snake. Nothing today really changed my opinion one way or another on that match.

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To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.

So now you don't think that Tifa will take out the Blue Blur?
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"Frog > Samus, because Samus is a woman." - Dino Duck

I was just ranking those characters; that wasn't my prediction for the top 10 or whatever. If it were, I'd be adding Vincent and Tifa into it.
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To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.

I'm sure Ryu beating Bowser will change your mind, HM.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Good thing I won't have to worry about that, considering that Ryu isn't going to beat Bowser.

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To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.

Bowser will still be beating Solid Snake. Nothing today really changed my opinion one way or another on that match.


That seems kinda ridiculous to me now. Consider how close Vivi and Auron are. From the Spring, Ganon would be expected to get 51.6% on Bowser, and if Bowser = Snake, and assuming Zelda ends with 46%, Ganon would get 55.5% on Zelda before SFF, which seems to be a far larger difference than there was in 2k3.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

I'm sure Ryu beating Bowser will change your mind, HM.

Forgot about KOS-MOS? Bowser > Yoshi > Luigi > Ryu, according to her. >_>
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.