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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 214
From: transience | Posted: 8/24/2005 12:37:02 AM | Message Detail
NOBLE NINE'D

*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Spring 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/27

All Time Extrapolated Standings:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/alltimexsts.htm



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251

!yawa tsoP
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: LuniNutz99 | Posted: 8/24/2005 12:37:30 AM | Message Detail
Squall > Knux

---
Lunatic Under Narcotic Influence
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/24/2005 12:39:03 AM | Message Detail
Good thinking, old chap. 50 more posts and who knows WHAT would've happened... heh.
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Raiden fact of the post: Raiden is disappointed with Snake's performance thus far. It's about 30% too low.
From: transience | Posted: 8/24/2005 12:40:59 AM | Message Detail
I'm amazed people haven't posted with "SO LATE????"

and I really hope I don't regret that noble nine comment, heh.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Eggplant Lord | Posted: 8/24/2005 12:42:09 AM | Message Detail
>_>
<_<

OMG SO LATE!!?!

===
Oh. My. God.
Did the PS2's light just change color...?!
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/24/2005 12:42:12 AM | Message Detail
The Plan must be fulfilled!
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/24/2005 1:40:21 AM | Message Detail
I'll take that as a yes...
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/24/2005 1:40:21 AM | Message Detail
...That's a new one.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: LuniNutz99 | Posted: 8/24/2005 1:41:15 AM | Message Detail
Haha! I succeeded!

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Lunatic Under Narcotic Influence
From: transience | Posted: 8/24/2005 1:41:24 AM | Message Detail
omg palindromic stats topic

anyway, as I was posting:

one would assume that hard-to-predict matches would be close matches - that's why they're hard to predict, after all.

I don't think anyone expected Snake to break 55% - which he may still have trouble doing by the way - and a good chunk of the board were calling for a Zelda win. this is incredibly anticlimactic.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/24/2005 1:41:48 AM | Message Detail
Vincent > Dante/Squall and Tifa > Luigi/Sonic.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/24/2005 1:41:48 AM | Message Detail
Holy moly, 1 thousand vote lead when I awake. Damn, I guess Vivi either dropped or rSFF'd. Regardless, maybe Zelda IS over-rated afterall. Though, I do have Snake in my bracket, but Zelda winning would of caused some more excitement..meh.
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/24/2005 1:41:52 AM | Message Detail
Solid Snake 57.03% 4070
Zelda 42.97% 3066
TOTAL VOTES 7136

100 minutes, 1000 votes.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/24/2005 1:42:33 AM | Message Detail
Solid Snake 57.03% 4070
Zelda 42.97% 3066
TOTAL VOTES 7136

I wouldn't say it's that anticlimactic, because I think it was always Snake's match to lose.
---
Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/24/2005 1:44:13 AM | Message Detail
Very few matches are actually ever in question. Expecting 5 in a row is sort of ridiculous. Being hard to predict doesn't usually mean being incredibly close. Link vs. cloud is in question, but whoever wins well probably pull out the type of victories we saw in 2k3 and 2k4 between the two.
---
Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996
From: transience | Posted: 8/24/2005 1:46:32 AM | Message Detail
well, of the round 2 matches, these five are probably the most debated. (besides Squall/Magus - whoops!) I don't think anyone expected 5 straight 51-49 matches, but out of the first two, only Auron/Ganon was interesting, and that was only for the first few hours.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/24/2005 1:48:21 AM | Message Detail
There's also Dante/Vincent, Chief/DK, and Luigi/Tifa. All of those are interesting matches, regardless of what the result may be.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/24/2005 1:48:28 AM | Message Detail
Hmm, Snake only gained eight votes that update.

I hope he isn't tanking before the morning even comes.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/24/2005 1:50:07 AM | Message Detail
Once again, how are people expecting Alucard/Sora to go? Assuming constant Ganon, Auron would be expected to get 53.33% on Alucard, so things are still looking good for the Son of Lisa.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/24/2005 1:50:18 AM | Message Detail
Snake's stalled every once in a while so far, but he comes roaring back after an update or two.

I'm actually anticipating virtually all of the second round matches except for perhaps Yoshi/Pac-Man. Even Vercetti/Crono is worth watching, if only to get a decent read on Vercetti and the endless enigma that is Kefka.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/24/2005 1:51:32 AM | Message Detail
*checks*

Yeah, that was definitely a roar.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: transience | Posted: 8/24/2005 1:51:38 AM | Message Detail
I can't get worked up about Alucard/Sora, mostly because I don't care about either character. I guess it's Sora's match to lose, but it could go either way. Ganon beating Auron with 54%+ does make Alucard look a little stronger.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: transience | Posted: 8/24/2005 1:53:32 AM | Message Detail
TV/Crono should be interesting simply to find out how much SFF there was in Crono/Kefka. other than that, it's going to be a snoozefest.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/24/2005 2:01:55 AM | Message Detail
We could write a waltz for this match. Stall, Stall, Gain. Stall, Stall, Gain. Or even, Gain, Gain, Stall, Gain, Gain, Stall. tra la tra la tra la.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: transience | Posted: 8/24/2005 2:03:50 AM | Message Detail
random question: having seen this, what non-noble nine character would you take over Snake? Ganon? Zero? Bowser?

...Magus? (Magus jokes never get old.)
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/24/2005 2:05:37 AM | Message Detail
As of now, I would consider strongly taking Vincent and Tifa over Snake. Very strongly.

Bowser, Ganon, Zero...nuh uh. The stats can only take them so far. I don't see them doing it.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: transience | Posted: 8/24/2005 2:06:32 AM | Message Detail
Tifa is the only one I would take over Snake. I alllllllmost took her over Sonic.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/24/2005 2:11:33 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/24/2005 2:14:26 AM | Message Detail
Bleh, nevermind that post.
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/24/2005 2:16:44 AM | Message Detail
Too late, I did the math already (not perfectly, but I didn't need a calculator that way).

Through 2k4 Lara? Unadjusted Snake would get around 68%, and adjusted gets around 71% or so.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/24/2005 2:18:30 AM | Message Detail
Oh, well, at least she wasn't over-rated.
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/24/2005 2:19:16 AM | Message Detail
Unless Lara dropped from 2k3 to 2k4, which wouldn't surprise me.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: transience | Posted: 8/24/2005 2:21:08 AM | Message Detail
use 2k2 Lara and you'll get a better number for Zelda. 2k3 is probably somewhere in the middle of those two numbers.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: voltch | Posted: 8/24/2005 2:25:07 AM | Message Detail
bowser/ryu ain't been talked about no more. does everyone really think bowser has it in the bag?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: transience | Posted: 8/24/2005 2:26:08 AM | Message Detail
I think Bowser/Ryu is the easiest to call of the so-called Gauntlet. if Bowser can double up Chun Li, I'm confident he can take Ryu.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: voltch | Posted: 8/24/2005 2:30:16 AM | Message Detail
by the way if there was an all female contest would bloodrayne have any decent strength?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/24/2005 2:31:13 AM | Message Detail
I'm about as confident as I ever was about Bowser/Ryu. Ryu could still take it, but again, I would have rather had Bowser's first round match than Ryu's.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/24/2005 2:31:43 AM | Message Detail
by the way if there was an all female contest would bloodrayne have any decent strength?

Here? Probably not. Enough to beat fodder (and a lot of such a contest would be fodder), but not enough to contend with any real competition.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: transience | Posted: 8/24/2005 2:41:48 AM | Message Detail
a female contest would be dumb. you'd have a million Square characters, Samus, Zelda and... um.. umm.. Jill Valentine?
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/24/2005 2:42:56 AM | Message Detail
Another game contest, a company contest, or a console/handheld contest.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/24/2005 2:43:20 AM | Message Detail
The Final Four of a balanced all-female bracket would almost undoubtedly be Samus/Aeris and Tifa/Zelda. Samus and Tifa would take their respective matches with ease, and Samus would win the whole thing comfortably. IMO.
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: transience | Posted: 8/24/2005 2:44:44 AM | Message Detail
I'm dying for game contest II. I really don't know where you could go from here with a character contest - this is about as good as it's gonna get and it's still pretty predictable. with a game contest, we've never even had cross-generational matches besides the final four. that field would be wide open.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/24/2005 2:47:33 AM | Message Detail
I'd love to see a game contest as well, IF Ceej doesn't decide to indulge his love of the rematach heavily. Halo v. Starcraft won't be the same twice...
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/24/2005 2:47:48 AM | Message Detail
*rematch
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Only the Snake is the true hero. Solid Snake to the Final Four!
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/24/2005 2:50:07 AM | Message Detail
bowser/ryu ain't been talked about no more. does everyone really think bowser has it in the bag?

While bowser is likely somewhat stronger then in 2k3 (for obvious reasons), I think ryu was overrated by the 2k4 stats a bit. He only made it to round two, and I think he overperformed on sonic. The fact that him a kos-mos rised in the xstats by almost the exact same amount compared to their 2k3 level is as good an idication as any. Kos-MOS's absolutely craptastic performance on luigi and ryu doing badly on rikku doesn't exactly make him look good either. I'll bet anything short of my account that bowser is going to win that one.
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 8/24/2005 2:53:46 AM | Message Detail
Bowser will win with ease. I could see him getting 55%.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: transience | Posted: 8/24/2005 3:03:44 AM | Message Detail
what dragoon said, plus: Nintendo being 13-1 to this point, the villain contest, and the fact that 1 out of every 6 people (approximately 16000) would need to have Ryu > Bowser > Chun Li. I just can't see that happening, and I rank them Ryu > Chun > Bowser.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: KingBartz | Posted: 8/24/2005 3:43:21 AM | Message Detail
Well, Frog had 59% on Master Chief after an hour, with a lead of 616...

But this is MC we are talking about, the absolute master of the day vote due to outside help :P


Zelda is screwed, with Snake's 1500 vote lead 3 and a half hours in.

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My Summer Contest Score: 34/40 - Todays Pick: Solid Snake
KingBartz: Been a Virgin since '87
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/24/2005 3:44:55 AM | Message Detail
Zelda was screwed after the first hour. Now she's just being raped.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 8/24/2005 3:49:59 AM | Message Detail
This match looks like it will end with 57-42%. How high is Solid Snake in the Xstats if we use a constant Vivi?
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When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg
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