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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 213
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/23/2005 9:15:26 PM | Message Detail
People put way to much weight on vote totals in general. Of course a match where one character is complete fodder is going to have low vote totals, saying that those low vote totals make snake weak is about as ridiculous as the people who were calling samus weaker then last year after her match against yuri.
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From: transience | Posted: 8/23/2005 9:20:11 PM | Message Detail
or both, yup; I meant that most people definitely like one.

and yeah, vote totals are overexaggerated, just like pictures are. overanalyzing is what the stats topic is all about.
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/23/2005 9:26:36 PM | Message Detail
82-0.

I want you to ponder that for a moment. 82 times has a Noble Nine character faced one outside of that elite group, and 82 times the Noble Niner hasn't come out triumphant. If that's not domination, I don't know what is.

Although, statistically speaking, the likes of Ganondorf and Zero came and put a wrench in that denomination, the Noble Nine is more than just "the nine strongest characters". It's a legacy, one of nine characters that were pegged as the front-runners before the contest even began. And dominate they did, as they left their closest competitors, Aeris and Ryu, totally in the dust in the standings.

And suddenly, one Black Mage slaughter later, it's looking to fall apart. Sure, there was the obvious threat of Tifa who looks like it's going to materialize, but what could very well happen tomorrow, from a pre-contest perspective, could come out right of left field. Zelda, representing a company that's 13-0 outside of same-company match-ups so far this year... only 4 people picked her in the BOP. As many as Pac-Man over Ocelot. And since it's common knowledge that Ganondorf is more popular than Bowser among these parts, and one can make a very solid case for Zelda at least being as strong as the G-man is... we could very well be seeing a fight for a spot in the Final 4. This has been the ladies' contest so far, anyway... at least those made of organic material. We could be missing out on an all-female Final 4 because of pathetic representation in the third quarter of the bracket, for all we know.

82-0. After tomorrow, will that 0 still be there?
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/23/2005 9:27:25 PM | Message Detail
hasn't come out triumphant... I mean has, of course.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/23/2005 9:31:40 PM | Message Detail
And just to repeat the stat watch I had going on earlier today, so far if Ganondorf = Zelda, Auron beats Vivi with 55.62%. As a reminder, based on the matches against Sephiroth, this percentage goes down to 53.95%.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 8/23/2005 9:31:42 PM | Message Detail
Beautiful. That almost made me cry.
Well, not really, but it really makes me want Zelda to win.

Vote Zelda to create a legend!
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/23/2005 9:33:12 PM | Message Detail
Slow, if I didn't have Spanish 150 at 8:00 in the morning, you woulda been the reason I'd stay up for this match; that's got me hyped.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: shadow8021 | Posted: 8/23/2005 9:35:40 PM | Message Detail
Zelda will make it 82-1. Just you wait and see. The Noble Nine's legacy will be in ruin.
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Summer Contest Score: 35/38
Today's Pick: Ganondorf
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/23/2005 9:37:28 PM | Message Detail
Great post slow, great post. That's one hell of a legacy that looks read to fall apart at some point in this contest. Snake has both bowser and zelda to go through, and sonic has to take on a big bewbed aeris. None are easy tasks.
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From: transience | Posted: 8/23/2005 9:39:58 PM | Message Detail
you know, if Snake does lose, the term just gets renamed to elite 8. people have been saying Snake doesn't belong in that group for a good year now.
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/23/2005 9:41:50 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, it's been obvious that snake is outclassed by quite a few opponents for a while, but to officially lose to a non-noble niner marks the real end of the legacy. The elite eight just isn't the same, because the term hasn't been around since the first contest started.
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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/23/2005 9:42:04 PM | Message Detail
I'll always refer to "them" as the 'elite(s)'. That pretty much tells you which characters you're talking about without some corny little name.

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To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.
From: transience | Posted: 8/23/2005 9:43:56 PM | Message Detail
well, when you say noble nine, everyone knows exactly who you mean. when you use the word "elite", it isn't as clear. is it corny? yup, but it's a term everyone understands.
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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/23/2005 9:46:15 PM | Message Detail
Who in the world doesn't understand who you're talking about when you refer to the "elite" set of characters? I have, maybe, used the term "Noble Nine" once or twice. I don't see a need to refer to those characters by that title nor do I think we need some corny name for the next set up. Because then what happens if Tifa or Vincent get added to that group? Extend it back out? You have the "elite" characters and then you have the "near-elite" characters. I think that's pretty clear on who you're referring to.

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To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.
From: LuigiGoterelli | Posted: 8/23/2005 9:50:57 PM | Message Detail
After glancing through Slow's whole deal about the Noble Nine, wouldn't it be fitting to extensively chronicle the history of the Noble Nine once it falls (if it does, of course; there's still a fair chance of the Noble Nine surviving the contest)?

I'm talking a whole thing about the speculation before 2k2, performances for each character and such, a history of all the characters who were supposedly able to break into the Noble Nine, and all that. There's a few people who seem to like doing write-ups for matches and the like, so this could be something to think about, I guess.
From: transience | Posted: 8/23/2005 9:52:29 PM | Message Detail
well, when you say "elite", do you mean Snake? some people here think of Snake as "elite" while some don't.

if Tifa beats Sonic or Vincent beats Crono, the term Noble Nine goes away. you don't add and subtract people at will just to make the Noble Nine term fit; you either make a new term or go with calling them "elites".
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/23/2005 10:01:07 PM | Message Detail
Solid, Sonic, Mega Man, and even Crono have a shot of being upset this year by a non-Noble Nine member...imagine if all four happened; the board would be in absolute chaos, I tell ya. Let's not even get into how we would get, too.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/23/2005 10:01:59 PM | Message Detail
After glancing through Slow's whole deal about the Noble Nine, wouldn't it be fitting to extensively chronicle the history of the Noble Nine once it falls (if it does, of course; there's still a fair chance of the Noble Nine surviving the contest)?

I think that's a great idea, myself, if it happens.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Phediuk | Posted: 8/23/2005 10:04:21 PM | Message Detail
Well, tomorrow may be the best chance we get to test the Noble Nine's integrity. Snake has proven to be outclassed by other non-Noble Nine characters and he has an atrocious pic to boot.

Godspeed, Zelda. Godspeed.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Fett0001 | Posted: 8/23/2005 10:07:40 PM | Message Detail
I picked zelda....Go Zelda!
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Vote Diablo in SC2k5.
PWN'D by yoblazer in the guru contest. Congrats.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/23/2005 10:21:36 PM | Message Detail
Heh, I just got to lookin' around at old stats...if we were to revert to 2k2 numbers, Squall could not only lose to Knuckles but also lose with 44%. That'd be so awesome. =)
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Tai | Posted: 8/23/2005 10:22:08 PM | Message Detail
Very intriguing.

All the other N9 characters warming Snake up for the fight of his and the N9 legacy's life, us hoping for Zelda to put the dagger into N9's heart...

I'll see you in 1:30 hours. :-)
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From: cyko | Posted: 8/23/2005 10:23:01 PM | Message Detail
here's hoping that Zelda crashes and burns like the pathetic excuse for a character that she is! ^_^

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."
From: transience | Posted: 8/23/2005 10:25:03 PM | Message Detail
well, it took a while, but it looks like Auron finally stopped Ganon and is winning some updates. here's to hoping he gets it under 54%.
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From: transience | Posted: 8/23/2005 10:25:54 PM | Message Detail
..blah, and as I write that, Ganon gains 22 votes.

blah.
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/23/2005 10:55:24 PM | Message Detail
Does anyone think the wierd not bheing able to vote glitch was done intentionally? I mean it's quite obvious that cjayc is well aware of the whole zero wing craze and how it's easily the biggest fad on board 8, and possibly all of gamefaqs.
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/23/2005 10:56:17 PM | Message Detail
CJay would have acknowledged it if he did it on purpose for CATS.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/23/2005 11:00:11 PM | Message Detail
Maybe he well when the poll is over. It just seems to coincidental to actually be a coincidence.
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From: Fett0001 | Posted: 8/23/2005 11:02:36 PM | Message Detail
What vote glitch?
From: transience | Posted: 8/23/2005 11:03:35 PM | Message Detail
it was definitely not coincidental. it was logging people in and out, deleting the FAQs, doing all kinds of wacky things. that ain't no joke.

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From: Lopen | Posted: 8/23/2005 11:04:55 PM | Message Detail
For the last 5 minutes, Auron should be replaced by CATS, and with 95% of the vote. That would be so cool.

Not that it'll happen... but so what, it would be cool.
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/23/2005 11:05:32 PM | Message Detail
This has been the ladies' contest so far, anyway... at least those made of organic material.

Joanna Dark, Chun-Li, Terra and Kerrigan don't count, I assume?
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: transience | Posted: 8/23/2005 11:05:41 PM | Message Detail
er, i'm stupid. not purposeful. that's the second time i've done that today.
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From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/23/2005 11:06:24 PM | Message Detail
For the last 5 minutes, Auron should be replaced by CATS, and with 95% of the vote. That would be so cool.

95 is a bit excessive. I mean, CATS is only projected to get 50.27% on Ganondorf.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: transience | Posted: 8/23/2005 11:12:00 PM | Message Detail
yeah, wouldn't wanna mess up the x-stats.
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/23/2005 11:14:08 PM | Message Detail
I'm gone to bed now, but I'll ask this: Auron or Squall, who wins?

Also, Ganon will have 73.78% of the brackets gettin' him out of this four-pack.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/23/2005 11:15:11 PM | Message Detail
CATS is only projected to get 50.27% on Ganondorf

CATS would probably SFF him... you know how Ganondorf has an abandoning fanbase. But yeah, we should be realistic here. CATS with 71%.
From: transience | Posted: 8/23/2005 11:15:13 PM | Message Detail
I was going to say "call me crazy, but Ganon with 70%." there goes that bold prediction.

um, I'll take Auron.
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/23/2005 11:17:12 PM | Message Detail
Ganon will have 63.21% of the brackets.

I'd pick Auron over Squall... and Vincent, while we're at it.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 8/23/2005 11:18:57 PM | Message Detail
Zelda/Snake should be a lot of fun. It's my most anticipated match of the round; I dig both characters and hope they put on a good show. With any luck it'll be a close one throughout that'll live up to expectations - unlike tonight's - and the ne'er do wells from both sides won't flood the board muchly with random reprisals & cheap *****ing.

Pretty good totals for Ganon/Auron, despite losing over forty minutes of voting time.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/23/2005 11:34:41 PM | Message Detail
Heh, this is off-topic, but I just finished writing my Double Dragon 2 write-up in my top games list. I just had to post this pic of one of the most devistating moves in a beat-'em-up game:

http://www.emumaniak.zel.pl/info/screeny/
Double%20Dragon%202%20-%20The%20Revenge%20(U)(1).jpg


Super Uppercut > you
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: transience | Posted: 8/23/2005 11:36:24 PM | Message Detail
that crazy knee attack > cyclone kick > uppercut.
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/23/2005 11:37:57 PM | Message Detail
Gannon with 65% of brackets on his side, and I predict zelda to take the board vote with ease. Even if solid is preferred here on board 8 (I'm not sure if he is) so is auron and he lost the board vote as well. The reason? The board vote isn't a board vote at all. The amount of actual board members who stay up to vote are probably in the lower end of the double digits, and the rest who quickly vote are more of a hardcore fanbase vote. LOZ related things always seems to either win that, or at least do better in it then they do in the rest of the match.
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/23/2005 11:39:11 PM | Message Detail
This is just going to fall short of 100k votes. Probably by about 500 votes. That's sort of a shame given that this is the best nintendo vs. square match we've seen so far in the contest.
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From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/23/2005 11:39:34 PM | Message Detail
that crazy knee attack > cyclone kick > uppercut.

Yeah, but I couldn't find any pics of the POWER KNEE! I would have preffered finding a pic of someone power kneeing the first boss off the side of the building....
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: transience | Posted: 8/23/2005 11:40:29 PM | Message Detail
I've got Snake taking the "board vote". the term board vote is a bit of a misnomer, since it's clearly more than just the board voting. I have some friends who are quite interested in the contest and have never been to the gamefaqs boards in their lives.
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From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/23/2005 11:41:41 PM | Message Detail
The reason? The board vote isn't a board vote at all. The amount of actual board members who stay up to vote are probably in the lower end of the double digits, and the rest who quickly vote are more of a hardcore fanbase vote.

It's really because it's not just a Board 8 vote. It's EVERYONE who is on GameFAQs at that particular time.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/23/2005 11:41:49 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, if you master the crazy knee attack, you are a combat god. It's so cool going through the level just doing that repeatedly instead of walking... even better, having you and your friend do that down the road.

"Those two are bad mamma jammas"
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From: transience | Posted: 8/23/2005 11:42:24 PM | Message Detail
look what google found me:

http://oldskooled.keenspace.com/guest/guest_rhoads2.gif

...whoa.
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/23/2005 11:44:04 PM | Message Detail
It's really because it's not just a Board 8 vote. It's EVERYONE who is on GameFAQs at that particular time.

Well obviously, but the initial surge of votes would suggest that the vast majority of people who vote in the first 5 minutes know when the poll is going to start, thus the "hardcore" vote. It differs a lot from any point in the rest of the match a lot of the time.

My only point is that loz related things seem to always win it, or at least most of te time. Link vs. cats would be an exception.
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