Yeah, but Metal Gear isn't that popular around here... Metal Gear Solid is where it's at.

I played Metal Gear first as well... but uh... nah, I can't say I'm with you on that. Of course, I also greatly prefer Metal Gear Solid to Metal Gear, that can't help.
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Raiden fact of the post: Raiden was originally casted to be in Metal Gear, but he couldn't bear being all spritely like that... Snake admittedly looks way better than Raiden in 8-bits.

I played Metal Gear back in the day too, and that picture STILL looked like **** to me. And with Frog having that huge bandwagon, I think it was more than enough for people to switch support to Frog... especially since Frog was going to lose anyway. Chrono Trigger is a very popular game on this site, yo.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

evidently not enough for Magus to beat Knuckles...

That still shocks me. We had people who would take him over Sonic, and he lost to Knuckles...

grr, and MC will win!

Is Snake particularly good at any time of the vote?
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

Does anybody have Contest Stats & Discussion 156 anymore? I need it for my analysis tonight.
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NOMINATE KEN MASTERS FOR SC2K5
http://img291.echo.cx/img291/3398/ken23rc.gif

Snake's good with the first night vote... or rather, he isn't very good with the day vote.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters

Donkey Kong will win and take Knuckles' time in the sun from him.

Magus's match against Link wasn't too much different from Frog's match against Snake. 2k3 was Magus's first year in the contest, and people wanted him to do well. Everyone knew he was going to lose against Link, so a lot of people probably wanted him to do as well as possible against Link.

I'm not saying that is the case for everyone, but Chrono Trigger IS one of the most popular games on this site. I wouldn't be surprised if someone who would normally vote for Link decided to vote for Magus in that one match.

Now that Magus and Frog have had their glory in the contest, they dropped back down to earth. At least that's my theory...
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

It's as plausible as any other, I think. They both overperformed in their first contests and have been getting throttled lately. Meh. I'd love to see a Ganondorf/Magus payback next year. =P
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

All we need now is Robo to get in, have him have close matches with some yutz everyone thinks he'll beat easily and have him overpeform on a noble niner to have him really high in the stats and watch him flop the year after

Metroid and Zelda aren't the same series, despite both being Nintendo.

and yet, Zelda: LTTP beat Super Metroid 74% to 26%. i still don't understand how that could have been such a blowout without some sort of bastard Nintendo SFF. and don't get me started on OOT beating Super Mario 64 with over 76%. that's just a crime against humanity.

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."

so you're telling me that people thought the following:

"wow, Magus made it! I'm gonna vote for him to make sure he has a good showing for his first time!"

"oh, Magus is back... well, I voted for him last time, but he's had his time in the sun."

seems a tad bit farfetched to me. I think CT is just not as popular as it was last year. that makes more sense to me.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

A Ganondorf/Magus rematch would probably rival Kuja/MH and WW/SoA as the most disgusting match in history.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters

so you're telling me that people thought the following:

"wow, Magus made it! I'm gonna vote for him to make sure he has a good showing for his first time!"

"oh, Magus is back... well, I voted for him last time, but he's had his time in the sun."

seems a tad bit farfetched to me. I think CT is just not as popular as it was last year. that makes more sense to me.

What's so farfetched about that? Voters aren't robots. People throw their support to other characters all the time! We do it here all the time, where we see people say "I usually would vote for X but I decided to give Y a sympathy vote", or something of the sort. What makes us so much different from the average voter? There probably are plenty of voters who like characters from a variety of different series. They aren't bound to voting the same way every time.

To simplify it: Just imagine 50000 people like Heroic Mario sitting behind their computers. :P
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

"seems a tad bit farfetched to me."

Oddly enough it's how I treated both Magus and Frog...
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

Does anybody have Contest Stats & Discussion 156 anymore? I need it for my analysis tonight.

156? I've got that one on file.
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Stats and Discussion Pt156.htm
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

weird. I look at the poll, say "I like you more", and I vote. I really think that's overanalyzing, but hey, to each their own.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

and yet, Zelda: LTTP beat Super Metroid 74% to 26%. i still don't understand how that could have been such a blowout without some sort of bastard Nintendo SFF. and don't get me started on OOT beating Super Mario 64 with over 76%. that's just a crime against humanity.

well, first I have to say "games don't equal characters," but ignoring that, because it's still relevant, Link vs Samus back in 2k3 wasn't too sff riddled. I'm sure there was an amount, but it wasn't anything as bad as the spring contest. I think it should be a decent match; she certainly shouldn't crush him as Link did.

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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

I don't think so many people would just give up on Magus and not vote for him..... I dunno, maybe they did. That's still a crazy upset that happened. We'll see how Knuckles does against Squall. Watch him win again, that'd be hilarious.

And, argh, I forgot to crank my Oracle percentage up to 54% like I was thinking last night, so now I'm stuck with the 50.05 for Ganondorf. Ah well, least I didn't pick Auron. I couldn't decide which to vote for, so I voted for both...
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.

fair enough, Falcon, but i still think there will be SSBM SFF involved in Samus vs. Ganondorf. definitely not as much as Link gave him, though.

oh, and STILL, noone has chosen me a good close-up picture of Snake.

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."

From: cyko | Posted: 8/23/2005 6:06:10 PM | #197
even though, i am one of the biggest and most vocal supporters of match pics making a difference, Snake's really doesn't seem that horrible, compared to what it could be. someone, please show me an extreme close-up of Snake that actually looks good.

Contrary to popular belief, the picture that CJayC gave Snake originally wasn't a closeup. Here's the original:

http://image.com.com/gamespot/images/2005/026/920776_20050127_screen013.jpg

And his CODEC picture from MGS could have easily been used.

http://rkillcrazy.homeip.net/mgs/Wallpaper/CODEC%20BACKGROUND%20WALL%20PAPERS/CODEC_BACKGROUND_TANKER_1280x1024.jpg
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]

well, the fact remains that nothing has SFFed a Zelda character except another Zelda character. I don't see why this would change for Samus/Ganon. heck, I've seen a couple of people say Tifa has a chance at Crono because she's some FF7 and he's not - why would this change for Ganon?
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http://picturesofwalls.com

er, from ff7, not some. I rule.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

Zelda wins, 50.15-49.85
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Summer Contest Score: 35/38
Today's Pick: Ganondorf

oh, and STILL, noone has chosen me a good close-up picture of Snake.

Snake has a ton of good closeups in the actual in-game cutscenes. Here's a decent one I just picked up off of IGN:

http://media.ps2.ign.com/media/014/014538/img_1271981.html
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I am preparing to change my sig just in case the time comes. Move along.

Wait, I forget, can you post screenshots from IGN? I might have to delete that...
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I am preparing to change my sig just in case the time comes. Move along.

why couldn't you?
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http://picturesofwalls.com

I don't know, I can't ever remember what we're allowed to link to and what we're not these days.
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I am preparing to change my sig just in case the time comes. Move along.

don't get me started on OOT beating Super Mario 64 with over 76%. that's just a crime against humanity.

That most certainly was a travesty.


http://www.sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=15&phid=54

By no means is it great, but I still like that better than what he's gettin' tomorrow.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Also, there's also good closeup MGS2 art that Ceej could hasn't even used in past contests, and there's always his Codec art from MGS1, too.
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I am preparing to change my sig just in case the time comes. Move along.

You mean melted Snake?

Everyone complains about Snake's pic.

You mean melted Snake?

There's other MGS2 art than that pic, though it is in the same style.

Everyone complains about Snake's pic.

Aside from this and Solid ****, his pictures have been more or less recognizable, which is really all I ask. Even the MGA pic from last round was good enough to be at least sort of recognizable.
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I am preparing to change my sig just in case the time comes. Move along.

Face it, Snake is just ugly. That's all there is to it, there's nothing to complain about. Oh, and the reason we've never seen a Zelda cahracter get SFF'd by a non-Zelda character is because the only Zelda character to face a Nintendo character stronger than him is Ganon (against Link). Really, you can't say it won't happen when we've never had a chance to see it happen.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

Face it, Snake is just ugly.

XDXDXD

I don't know why but that just really made me laugh out loud a lot.
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996

I don't mind if Snake gets a picture that makes him look ugly...just as long as it makes him look like Snake.
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I am preparing to change my sig just in case the time comes. Move along.

And while I'll agree that this one is fairly bad for Snake, the last one look just like him. Considering that the obnoxious complaining is equally prevalent to the last time Snake had a match (and the time before that as well) I'm going to go out on a limb and say that if I were to believe you then I'd still have to consider you to be in the minority of the complainers.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

Also, I must ask. Does Snake having the 3rd highest individual vote totals in a match help him at all?
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Summer 2005 Contest - 34/38 points
Current Match Prediction: Ganondorf vs. Auron

Well, you said yourself you don't bother with the rest of Board 8 other than the occasional guru standings. I can say with relative confidence that the complaining for the first MGA picture was nowhere *near* as bad as it was for the Solid **** picture and this one. Maybe in this topic it's different...but this match hasn't even started, and you can find at least 50 topics on this single picture alone.
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I am preparing to change my sig just in case the time comes. Move along.

Also, I must ask. Does Snake having the 3rd highest individual vote totals in a match help him at all?

Considering it was against Manny Calavera, not really.
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I am preparing to change my sig just in case the time comes. Move along.

Zelda will have PMF. Previous match factor! A lot of people that voted Ganon today will come back and say "Look, another Zelda character!" and vote for Zelda.

Hey, It's more believable than some crazy theories. >_>
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti

if anything, people would be upset about Auron losing and vote Snake out of spite for Nintendo characters.

and even that I don't believe.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

Especially since a lot of the people voting probably don't visit gamefaqs on a daily basis.
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996

Back in the Games contest, before lockdown, I was worried about FFX perhaps getting anti-voted against Wind Waker by people still bitter from Final Fantasy VI and Final Fantasy VII beating Link to the Past and Ocarina of Time.

Well, I still took LttP over FFVI and FFX over Wind Waker. Guess I never got to find out if FFX was getting anti-voted, as, ya know, neither game actually made the division finals. **** you Starcraft... right in your behind.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 37/40 (Kefka, Magus, Ocelot)

atch 37: (1) Solid Snake vs. (5) Zelda

Past Performances

Solid Snake

Summer 2005
Beat Manny Calavera, 84.09% - 15.91%

Win - Lose Record
10-3

Zelda

Summer 2005
Beat Vivi Ornitier, 59.56% - 40.44%

Win - Lose Record
2-1

Analysis

The second match of the overrated Gauntlet. Like today’s tomorrow’s match will never be in question. I find that this match is going to be the way of Yoshi/Luigi and Ocelot/Wily where we all know how the match is going to end up and then the first round comes and this becomes all hyped and when it does happen the winner does as good as we thought before round 1 came.

Snake has a huge range from his unadjusted 2k4 stats to his 2k3 stats and since he was against a new character last round doesn’t help us at all. Something weird happened on Mega Man/Snake and Link/Mega Man and we won’t really know for sure until this contest has ended. Many people think his performance was bad (probably because after Tanner he should beat all fodder with 90%+), but it was about as I expected.

Never compare different x-st with each other since they will probably give you different numbers anyways. Most people called this an all Zelda gain, but if you take a look at the other FFIX performances this year it seemed like Vivi was destined to fall. I also believe with along Link and Ganondorf, Zelda has also gained from hype for the new game, but it won’t be enough for a Zelda win.

I would like to mention here on how bad the picture is for this match. Sure Snake isn’t the prettiest of them all, but at least make him look good. Zelda doesn’t look good either. This has to be one of the worst pictures CJayC had made.

Zelda is going to be the second Nintendo character eliminated, but this time there won’t be any SFF. I like both Zelda and Snake about the same, but I have Snake in the final 4 so I would rather have Snake win this match than Zelda. This will another over hyped match, but then again if Zelda does pull this out I wouldn’t be surprised since it might’ve been coming, but if she wants to win she better hope Snake doesn’t get a huge night vote since that will be his strongest time. Though, by the time morning breaks it will probably be too late for her to win anyways.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Solid Snake over Zelda

charmander6000’s Prediction: Solid Snake wins, 54.45% - 45.55%

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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.

Gear Division Round 2 - Match 37 – (1)Solid Snake vs. (5)Zelda

Snake - Raiden Staus: Missing and presumed dead.
Round 1 – vs. Manny (Snake: 84.09% - Manny: 15.91%)

Manny gets over 15% of the vote! Looks like he’s loved by more than just the board.

Zelda - She’d kick Peach’s butt.
Round 1 – vs. Vivi (Zelda: 59.56% - Vivi: 40.44%)

Vivi weaker? Zelda stronger? Hope we find out soon.

Usually, I’d just say Snake = Top 9 character, he wins, blah blah, let’s go on with our lives. BUT, I can’t. You people like reading, so let’s look in close at this match.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1352 – Mega Man/Zelda
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1364 – Mega Man/Snake

Common opponents! Both Zelda and Snake faced Mega Man back in 2003. Zelda got 39.25% on him, while Snake got 46.5%. Pretty easy to see whose stronger there. Of course though, that was back in 2003, and things change over the years. Want an example?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1775 – Mega Man/Snake ‘04

Snake? What happened buddy? You dropped over 4% on an opponent you faced back in 2003. You also did 4% worse in your match against Knuckles. Is that a pattern I see?

Alright, say Snake is 4% weaker and Zelda faces him, Snake still wins with 54.15% using a constant Mega Man. Of course, 2004 is screw thanks to Mega bombing against Link. One more match to look at though…

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2075 – Zelda/Vivi

Vivi’s rank in 2004 was 27.05%, assuming no SFF in the Mage’s match with Seph. Vivi was expected to get 44.65% on ’03 Zelda, but instead he only got 40.44%. That’s over 4% worse. It’s possible that Zelda has increased 4% since ’03? If so, that puts her RIGHT UNDER Snake. Snake would win a match by less than a percent.

Sephiroth though is tough to calculate. He fluctuates like crazy and almost never does what he’s supposed to. It is possible that Vivi received some SFF against Seph, or Seph was even weaker than we thought in 2004. Zelda increasing should be correct, but Snake also should increase with MGS and MGA in his corner. Zelda could impress though, but I’m not counting on the upset.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Snake will win

Moltar’s Prediction is: Snake: 52% - Zelda: 48%



Ulti’s Analysis

(Special note from Ulti: I'm either getting married or on my honeymoon as you're reading this, so know that all of my second round writeups will suck. I'm doing the same short writeups that I did for the last round, because I don't have time to be extensive.)

(Special note from Moltar: The Analysis Crew rocks!)

I have Snake in my bracket, but this will be the first time all contest where I go against my bracket in one of these writeups. Win or lose, I have this odd feeling that Zelda will be a monster in this contest. And I will FULLY take the time to laugh at everyone who took the time to laugh at me when I suggested that she had the capability to win this match. Can she win? Probably not. But at least she has a decent chance.

Zelda with 53.23%



Tnote’s Analysis

Welcome folks, to Revolver Ocelot/Dr. Wily: Redux. For those who were not here in the spring, Nemesis gave Ocelot all he could handled, Wily pounded a Square villain, and the entire board was in tears at the thought of the eminent Ocelot loss costing our brackets two points. Come match time, Ocelot throttled Wily, and everyone could not believe how fodderific Ultros was, AND how strong Nemesis was. Enter Zelda. In a match that was suppose to swing 55/45 tops, she pounds the black mage, leading everyone to believe she is going to make a run at the upset. Please people, this is Solid Snake. His strength may be wavering, but he will have votes to spare tomorrow. And he may need them when he throws down with Sora next round.

Solid Snake with 54.83%

Soul’s Analysis


How they got here

Solid Snake defeated Manny Calavera 84.09% - 15.91%
Zelda defeated Vivi 59.56% - 40.44%

If you are completely new to the contests, you would make a topic saying that Snake could easily defeat Zelda since his 84% is better then her 59%. Of course, you'd be completely wrong, and you would get pwned in the upcoming posts.

What was supposed to be the second closest match of round 1 turned out to be a massacre for the Princess of Hyrule. Seriously, 60% on Vivi is an accomplishment.

Snake takes out board favorite Manny Calavera with more then 84%. Of course, no one thought that Manny would be a powerhouse in these contests. Everyone knew that Snake was going to get around 80%+ against him. This match is looking a lot closer considering Vivi's strength. In fact, with those numbers, it looks like Zelda can give Ganondorf a tough time. Seeing as how many people believe Ganondorf to be stronger then Snake, this is looking mighty good for Zelda.

Of course, then there are people who believe that Snake just bombed for no reason against Mega Man. Causing insult to injury, Mega Man went out and bombed against Link in the very next round. If you look at the X-Stats, that would put Snake around 5% higher then Vivi.

Yeah, of course, X-stats don't mean much. I'm a firm believer that there are too many variables in different matches that will cause the stats to be obsolete. But nows not the time to argue about the stats (I'll leave that to Ulti).

Anyways, everything is looking great for Zelda right now. With Twilight Princess hype and being associated with the Zelda franchise, she will become a very strong competitor in these contests. Strong enough to beat Snake? Yeah, I think so.

My prediction: Zelda wins with 50.50%. If Zelda actually does win, expect massive whining and complaining.



Outback’s Analysis

First off, let's take a look at the first round matches of each participant.

Snake: 84-16 against Manny Calavera
Zelda: 60-40 against Vivi Ornitier

Now for Snake to have performed up to expectations, Manny would have to be equal to Guybrush. Manny has a PC game that's about ten years old. Guybrush has four games, one relatively recent and he has a PS2 port. I can't see Manny being over 7% on BL; forget the 9% that Guybrush has.

Zelda faced Vivi, who, even in the unadjusted stats, is above Knuckles, and performed much akin to the way Snake performed against Knuckles over the last three years. Throw in the Nintendo boost and your set.

Zelda with 52.34%



Inviso’s Analysis

Snake started off his first round with a blowout against Manny Calavera…a cult character from the least recognized genre of PC gaming by today’s audience, the adventure game. Zelda managed to hold her own and avoid a close match against Vivi, the strongest character from Final Fantasy IX. Now, both of these wins seemed impressive…but the opponents were MANNY CALAVERA and VIVI. As much as I like Vivi, he’s from FFIX, and like the pre-FFVII Final Fantasies, it’s weak as hell in the contest. And so, we look back and find out that Zelda and Snake have a common opponent. They both faced Megaman. Zelda got around 39%. Snake got around 42% the most recent match up with the Blue Bomber. With hype for Twilight Princess, Zelda may have easily gotten a boost, but I don’t think the hype will boost her up enough to overcome Snake AND his MGS3 power.

My Bracket: Solid Snake
My Vote: Princess Zelda
My Prediction: Solid Snake with 56.11%

Vlado’s Analysis

This match is quite anticipated, seeing as Zelda performed very impressively against Vivi, while Snake didn't blow out Manny by as much as people expected. Besides, Nintendo's on a huge rise and is yet to even lose a match in the contest. But will Zelda be able to upset the top seed and surely heavily favoured by the brackets Snake? Almost everyone with common sense has Snake going to the Final Four of the regular tournament, not so much because of his strength, but mostly because of the weakness of the whole Dream division, where neither contestant could possibly oppose Snake.

Some people think Zelda can win... The match picture follows the pattern that CJay introduced in Round 2, namely, it's horrible. It doesn't do justice to either character, though Zelda does look a bit more like herself. Well, basically, this pretty much comes down to whether Zelda will be stronger than Ganondorf. If she is, she can win this and take the whole division - it's clear that the winner of Alucard/Sora won't stand a chance against the winner here. However, I don't think she will be on Ganon's level, hence, she'll come just short of winning.

In my opinion, the most major factor that will help Snake is the bracket votes. Because, if we estimate Zelda through a supposedly constant Vivi (though I'm pretty sure he dropped a bit since last year), she comes within a percent of Snake's strength. Which is quite impressive. However, Snake is not Vivi. He's not even Auron. He's a gaming icon and I don't think someone like Zelda can defeat him. Even with the huge Nintendo increase. And, if it happens, this contest will be shaken. A likely Zelda voter is telling you that. I think Snake will probably get a slightly bigger part of the casual votes, which, along with the bracket ones, will help him win the match.

Predicted percentage: Solid Snake with 51.26%.

Oh, and this is from yesterday

From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/22/2005 9:35:58 PM | Message Detail | #419
Odd how three of the Ganon predictions have him with 54%.

Good job Crew!
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SC2K5: Samus is going all the way!
Ganon vs. Auron - Bracket: Ganon - Vote: Ganon (34/38)

TRE, you're saving all these topics? o_O
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Knuckles the Echidna's road to the Sc2k5 Title!
Round 2: (2)Squall Leonhart

Yeah, that's what I was afraid of, too. Whenever I point out a trend, it usually happens. I got outraged when people thought Zelda would kill Vivi, and she did. I mentioned that only two people had Leon breaking 60%, and he didn't.

It's like a Analysis Crew Curse or something.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

So I'll do it again...Look at how three of the analyses have Snake winning easily!
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna