...okay, I've done some calculations, and by God, Zero is still underperforming. Now, he should go back up with the day vote, but for now he'd be expected to go 60-40 against Kefka, when he did a bit better than that on Vercetti. Ouch.
---
"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

I wouldn't be too worried about it. Then again I still think kefka overperformed on wesker because he had the only good pic he's ever gotten before. Not by much mind you, but enough to make up for the "underperformance" on zero's part.
---
Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996

So, we shouldn't see Lloyd again. Kratos might stick around, but he'd be more of a measuring stick.
---

58th/125 in the Guru Standings. Why did I pick Kratos? *sigh*

I wonder what the final percent will be.

Even if you use unadjusted Zero it seems that Kefka overperformed at least about 3% with his angel pic. And rises to almost 6% if you use adjusted Zero. Not bad.
---
"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise

Sucks seeing Lloyd do so poorly, but at the least it ends the whole Kratos > Lloyd discussion. Gosh, was there any reason, other than being the main character, why we mass nominated him in?

i have a feeling lloyd is gonna be with kerrigan amongst the most disapointing flops of the year.
---
Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

4-pack of comedy:

Lloyd
Protoman

Conker
Duke Nukem
---
Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

Protoman < Duke Nukem
---
"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus

I'd like to think Protoman could take Duke.
---
"Kefka and pictures go together like gordon freeman and winning."

Protoman would win that fourpack with ease.
---
When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg

Hmm..alright I thought about it more, and I'd definitely let Protoman take that four-pack.
---
"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus

A belated "winners and losers of the last (proper sized) division":

1 - Pac-Man

Wakka wakka wakka wakka wakka. There were slight murmurings of this upset coming off, but very few put their brackets where their mouth was and the best most of us had was a half-decent Oracle pick.

2 - Tifa

Destroyed Vyse and put up numbers near to what Cloud did. I'm of the opinion that this is Vyse's decline rather than ridiculous strength from Tifa, but it's still an excellent first round showing.

3 - Luigi

Meant to be somewhat closer than that on paper, yet he runs out with a near doubling and looking impressive in the process. Still the underdog for round 2 though.

4 - Gordon Freeman

Continued his silly streak of getting 40%+ in each match while still losing, obviously. But made Leon look awfully weak in the process, HL2-increase or not.

5 - Mega Man

Took potentially increased fodder and tripled it. These days there aren't many characters that allow for a massive beatdown like what we saw in 2002, so it counts as a good performance.

6 - Yoshi

Did pretty much what was expected on Laharl. Barring that Hazuki incident, possibly the easiest victory Yoshi will ever get.

7 - Sonic

Tripled some guy who was that interesting I don't remember who he is. A win, but his stock falls somewhat and his final four chances are rather shaky.

8 - Diablo

Welcome to the big leagues. Wins over Kratos, but not convincingly and a sound beating at the hands of Sonic beckons.

9 - Leon Kennedy

Ensured GFNW lives on, but that's all he's doing in this contest except jobbing to Mega Man next round.

10 - Kratos Aurion

As we see Lloyd get taken apart by Zero, Kratos does well to go out quietly with 40%+ on Diablo, and may well end up being the stronger of the two.

11 - Jin Kazama

People still play Tekken? Apparently so, and he got into the contest and then got killed by Sonic. Should be happy he got this far, and not come back.

12 - Laharl

Somewhat surprising that he came back, and managed to avoid a rumoured tripling. But that's about it, failing to get 30% isn't clever, but against Yoshi... doubt he'll be back.

13 - Vyse

Not easy to place Vyse, as we don't know how much of the beating was due to Tifa's strength. But still, Vyse is the tournament veteran, and failed horribly.

14 - Conker

A new game behind him, and he still fails to avoid being tripled. Perhaps unlucky to be given a tough round 1 draw, but perhaps lucky to make the contest in the first place.

15 - KOS-MOS

Oh dear, you were meant to make this match close, not collapse horribly and nearly get doubled by Luigi. A big failure, no doubt about it.

16 - Revolver Ocelot

Wakka'd. Looked as if he'd get a win in his summer debut before bowing out to Yoshi, but couldn't even manage that.
---
Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

Angel Kefka had little to no effect. Magus' bombing pretty much demonstrated that.

Hilarious irony, if you ask me, that Luca Blight, who we knew to be a pathetic loser all along, was actually overrated.

So, who's the weakest RPG character ever in these contests, Yuri or Luca?
---
"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

Angel Kefka had little to no effect. Magus' bombing pretty much demonstrated that.

But if you assume AK had no effect, Knuckles goes down 3 percent from 03 to 04, which doesn't make any sense, especially considering Sonic and Tails's performances.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Are you using his adjusted stats or unadjusted?
---
"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus

From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/21/2005 2:34:44 PM | #313
So, who's the weakest RPG character ever in these contests, Yuri or Luca?

And, unless I'm overlooking someone, would anybody back a non-FF/CT RPG character to win any reasonable match next year? And who would be the strongest of those?
---
Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

Unadjusted X-stats for Upper Mushroom Division:

Mario: 50.00%
Joanna Dark: 19.10%
Ness: 17.20%
Carl Johnson: 15.43%
---
Summer Contest Score: 29/32
Today's Pick: Mario

Are you using his adjusted stats or unadjusted?

If AK overperformed, the unadjusted are true and Knuckles dropped 3 percent. I'd put more stock in a Knuckles increase from 04 to 05 than a Knuckles decrease from 03 to 04.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Top 10 Closest Matches (difference in percentage)

1) 1.72% - Knuckles over Magus
2) 2.28% - Tommy Vercetti over Kefka
3) 2.50% - Pac-Man over Revolver Ocelot
4) 3.34% - Frog over Riku
5) 9.38% - Lloyd Irving over Albert Wesker
6) 10.28% - Ness over Carl Johnson
7) 11.04% - Alucard over Kratos
8) 11.44% - Ryu over Rikku
9) 13.52% - Diablo over Kratos Aurion
10) 17.14% - Leon Kennedy over Gordon Freeman


Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 1756 - Knuckles over Magus
2) 2245 - Tommy Vercetti over Kefka
3) 2268 - Pac-Man over Revolver Ocelot
4) 3149 - Frog over Riku
5) 7952 - Lloyd Irving over Albert Wesker
6) 10036 - Alucard over Kratos
7) 10237 - Ness over Carl Johnson
8) 11621 - Diablo over Kratos Aurion
9) 12156 - Ryu over Rikku
10) 16065 - Leon Kennedy over Gordon Freeman

Top 10 Biggest Blowouts (difference in percentage)

1) 74.68% - Samus Aran over Yuri Hyuga
2) 68.18% - Solid Snake over Manny Calavera
3) 65.60% - (ii) Mario ove Ness
4) 61.78% - Mario over Joanna Dark
5) 58.00% - Vincent Valentine over Sarah Kerrigan
6) 56.14% - Tifa Lockheart over Vyse
7) 53.44% - Crono over Zidane
8) 52.30% - Sonic the Hedgehog over Jin Kazama
9) 52.04% - Megaman over Conker
10) 50.42% - Kirby over Cecil

Top 10 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in votes)

1) 63680 - Samus Aran over Yuri Hyuga
2) 62487 - Solid Snake over Manny Calavera
3) 61244 - Mario over Joanna Dark
4) 59870 - (ii) Mario over Ness
5) 58142 - Vincent Valentine over Sarah Kerrigan
6) 54045 - Tifa Lockheart over Vyse
7) 51944 - Crono over Zidane
8) 51894 - Megaman over Conker
9) 49390 - Squall Leonhart over Geno
10) 47602 - Sonic the Hedgehog over Jin Kazama

Top 10 Most Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 106979 - Ganondorf vs. Yuna
2) 106419 - Luigi vs. KOS-MOS
3) 106264 - Ryu vs. Rikku
4) 104671 - Vivi vs. Zelda
5) 102062 - Magus vs. Knuckles
6) 101195 - Tidus vs. King of All Cosmos
7) 100496 - Bowser vs. Chun-Li
8) 100258 - Sarah Kerrigan vs. Vincent Valentine
9) 99720 - Megaman vs. Conker
10) 99525 - Ness vs. Carl Johnson

Top 10 Least Popular Polls (by vote totals)

1) 84794 - Lloyd Irving vs. Albert Wesker
2) 85306 - Samus Aran vs. Yuri Hyuga
3) 85945 - Kratos Aurion vs. Diablo
4) 87141 - Donkey Kong vs. Sam Fisher
5) 88144 - Sora vs. Agent 47
6) 89823 - Kirby vs. Cecil
7) 90418 - Revolver Ocelot vs. Pac-Man
8) 90928 - Kratos vs. Alucard
9) 91032 - Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Jin Kazama
10) 91262 - (ii) Mario vs. Ness

---
"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."

Top 10 Highest Individual Votes

1) 80185 - Mario
2) 79200 - Vincent Valentine
3) 77063 - Solid Snake
4) 75807 - Megaman
5) 75566 - (ii) Mario
6) 75159 - Tifa Lockheart
7) 74580 - Crono
8) 74493 - Samus Aran
9) 74412 - Squall Leonhart
10) 73408 - Tidus

Top 10 Lowest Individual Votes

1) 10813 - Yuri Hyuga
2) 14576 - Manny Calavera
3) 15696 - (ii) Ness
4) 18941 - Joanna Dark
5) 21058 - Sarah Kerrigan
6) 21114 - Vyse the Unimpressive
7) 21715 - Jin Kazama
8) 22267 - Cecil
9) 22636 - Zidane
10) 23913 - Conker

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) 50153 - Magus
2) 47920 - Kefka
3) 47054 - Rikku
4) 45455 - Riku
5) 44644 - Carl Johnson
6) 44075 - Revolver Ocelot
7) 42324 - Vivi
8) 41503 - Yuna
9) 40446 - Kratos
10) 38810 - Gordon Freeman

Top 10 Least Impressive Winners (by votes)

1) 46343 - Pac-Man
2) 46373 - Lloyd Irving
3) 48604 - Frog
4) 48783 - Diablo
5) 50165 - Tommy Vercetti
6) 50482 - Alucard
7) 51909 - Knuckles
8) 54875 - Leon Kennedy
9) 54881 - Ness
10) 56433 - Donkey Kong

Top 10 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the

winner)

1) 97.98% - Solid Snake over Manny Calavera
2) 96.76% - Samus Aran over Yuri Hyuga
3) 96.53% - Mario over Joanna Dark
4) 92.20% - Master Cheif over CATS
5) 92.16% - Yoshi over Laharl
6) 92.10% - Sonic the Hedgehog over Jin Kazama
7) 89.87% - Crono over Zidane
8) 89.72% - Tifa Lockheart over Vyse
9) 89.12% - Squall Leonhart over Geno
10) 88.83% - Megaman over Conker

Top 10 Hardest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the

winner)

1) 35.08% - Knuckles over Magus
2) 37.66% - Tommy Vercetti over Kefka
3) 38.36% - Pac-Man over Revolver Ocelot
4) 43.62% - Leon Kennedy over Gordon Freeman
5) 51.31% - Alucard over Kratos
6) 51.90% - Ness over Carl Johnson
7) 53.08% - Frog over Riku
8) 53.88% - Lloyd Irving over Albert Wesker
9) 69.09% - Zero over Ryu Hayabusa
10) 71.08% - Donkey Kong over Sam Fisher

---
"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."

From: jonthomson | Posted: 8/21/2005 9:40:20 AM | #316
And, unless I'm overlooking someone, would anybody back a non-FF/CT RPG character to win any reasonable match next year? And who would be the strongest of those?

Diablo, of course.
---
"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

Top 10 Least Popular Polls (by vote totals)

2) 85306 - Samus Aran vs. Yuri Hyuga

Even the weekend argument can't work for this one... this is surprising, because Samus is traditionally a huge vote drawer. Not to the level of Link or Cloud, but somewhere close.
---
"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

IF by close, you mean no where near Cloud or Link then sure.
---
Summer 2005 Contest Score : 30/32
Rank : 42/33793 Today: Mario Tomorrow: Zero

That's in relative terms. No one comes close to Clinkeroth. Ever. However, outside of them, Samus is near the top.
---
"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

Could be a sign that Samus is going to lose to Mario. ^_-
---
Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/

I wish, vote totals sometimes don't go all that well when you're going to predict future matches.
---
"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus

The lack of votes in that match can more than likely be attributed to Yuri's lack of popularity. Which is a shame because both of the shadow hearts games were excellent....
---
"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee

But, Samus got less votes against a much lesser opponent than Mario against a stronger one.
---
Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/

Wow, I just noticed that...

Well, maybe it's just that the first match tends to get high vote totals..maybe.
---
"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus

Cloud Rules and is goin all the way!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

Angel Kefka has an effect as we can see from today. Using Luca through Magus and Wesker to judge Lloyd and Wesker isn't wise at all, considering that would bring Zero to midcarder level.
---
"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise

For once I think its safe to say Zero is still up there in the near elite category. The question is Lloyd/Wesker and whether or angel kefka had any effect at all.
---
"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee

Through Zero-to-Vercetti-to-Kefka-to-Wesker-to-Lloyd (which are four matches that were all done in the past year), Lloyd was expected to get 24.17% against Zero. ToS fans should be proud he's simply avoiding the tripling right now (though Lloyd's percentage has been droppin' still).

Through Zero-to-Vercetti-to-Kefka-to-Diablo-to-Kratos (again, four matches done in the past year), Kratos was expected to get 34.89% against Zero. Also keep in mind that Diablo got linkage against Kefka but not Kratos, so you might want to account for such; whether it makes Diablo based on Kefka too strong or Kratos based on Diablo too strong, it's your call...also be your own judge of how much of an effect it had.

Things never looked too good for Lloyd afterall, especially trying to break 35% like it was talked about yesterday.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Damn, vote totals are abysmal today. Must be the weekend factor, coupled with Lloyd not being much a vote-drawer, if at all. This poll is on pace to have the lowest vote total so far.

Oh well, after this and one more match comes The Gauntlet. *rubs hands in anticipation*

I hope it lives up to its name.
---
"Those people who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do." ~ Isaac Asimov

so, what does everyone expect out of Samus tomorrow?

for the record, if Frog's 4-pack from 2K4 really was screwed up and we use Master Cheif's x-stat value from 2K3, then Samus is expected to get 69.13% against Frog tomorrow. with that value, Riku would wind up a few points lower than Sora, which *GASP* would make sense. and, this year's Nintendo boost seems large enough to at least equal (or even be more than) any boost MC might have gotten from Halo 2.

therefore, i will not be surprised to see Samus break 70% tomorrow and she almost certainly will at least double Frog.

---
"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."

I expect about a doubling.
---
Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

I don't think Frog is as strong as Sora, so I expect Samus to have 71% when that match is over.
---
When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg

Samus will win with less than 52%

>_>

*bursts out laughing*

Seriously though I think the match will be 65/35
---
I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.

Samus will expose him for the fraud he is.

66% for Samus.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 30/34 points
Current Match Prediction: Zero vs. Lloyd Irving

I just don't like Samus. Go Frog.

Somebody please tell me what's so great about Samus because I don't see it.

And Slowflake, since you seem to be her biggest supporter, why don't you start?

I hope Samus only wins with 52% or less... that'd make my day... then we'll add another acronym in "MFF". (Magical Frog Factor)
---
May the Frog curse live on!

I'm not much more than indifferent to Samus, though the lil' feeling I have is favorable. I enjoy her games, but she's little more than "meh" to me.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

XD at MFF.

Seriously, I hope Samus trashes Frog. 70% would make my day.
---
That's right. Cloud N. Candy would get a NEGATIVE percentage, and RPGuy's extrapolated calculator would crash. - therealmnm

It would take 80% to make me happy. I can't stand that whole cast.
---
NOMINATE KEN MASTERS FOR SC2K5
http://img291.echo.cx/img291/3398/ken23rc.gif

anyone think all the matches of the gauntlet have a possibilty of breaking 110k?
---
Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

From: voltch | Posted: 8/21/2005 10:47:52 AM | Message Detail
anyone think all the matches of the gauntlet have a possibilty of breaking 110k?

Ganon/Auron definitely.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 30/34 points
Current Match Prediction: Zero vs. Lloyd Irving

For a fun fact, Mario cannot get more than 41.09% if CJ is to appear weaker than Yuri. In all likelyhood, this won't be the second time in a row that a GTA:SA character is at the very bottom of the stats...but it's certainly funny to think there's still a chance of it. =P
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

How is Zero/Lloyd doing in terms of vote totals?
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 30/34 points
Current Match Prediction: Zero vs. Lloyd Irving

From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/21/2005 7:00:32 PM | #348
How is Zero/Lloyd doing in terms of vote totals?

Poor. Looking like less than 90K.
---
Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

for the record, if Frog's 4-pack from 2K4 really was screwed up and we use Master Cheif's x-stat value from 2K3, then Samus is expected to get 69.13% against Frog tomorrow. with that value, Riku would wind up a few points lower than Sora, which *GASP* would make sense. and, this year's Nintendo boost seems large enough to at least equal (or even be more than) any boost MC might have gotten from Halo 2.

therefore, i will not be surprised to see Samus break 70% tomorrow and she almost certainly will at least double Frog.

Well, that's fine and all, but there's still no good reason for a four pack to just be "overrated." I mean, there's reasons, but none of them are very conclusive. The only one that's a definite problem is Master Chief's proved extra votes, but even then, they weren't cheat votes, and he lost anyway... I don't think Frog is going to completely die against Samus, I'd be very surprised if she touched 70.
---
Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb