If Samus doesn't win this contest, the Spring will most likely be a Female Character contest in order to get her in the ToC, assuming CJay keeps the ToC idea for next year
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http://users.ign.com/collection/Radix1337
In my restless dreams I see that town...Silent Hill...

I doubt he will. 6 characters doesn't make for an even split, unless you think he'll do a Triple Threat match.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

But then there's Tifa..

Just saying.
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus

From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/20/2005 8:37:44 PM | Message Detail
I doubt he will. 6 characters doesn't make for an even split, unless you think he'll do a Triple Threat match.

Could do like a mini-league tournament, but it's unlikely.

I'd rather see a games contest than a female contest, myself.
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/

From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/20/2005 3:37:44 PM | #152
I doubt he will. 6 characters doesn't make for an even split, unless you think he'll do a Triple Threat match.


2k5 champ vs 2k6 champ
Sephiroth vs Female champ


Link vs Cloud

Link/Cloud vs winner of the 4pack
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http://users.ign.com/collection/Radix1337
In my restless dreams I see that town...Silent Hill...

after mario128 and kh2 will mario and sora be considerably stronger or only noticeably stronger?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

Well, if Mario 128 is as successful as Mario 64 was, I would almost expect him to become a contender for the title.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Mario's so established, I doubt anything could change anyone's opinion, ever. Then again, weirder things happened.

Sora's a different story. I can see him moving up a bit.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

what's the bet we one day will get mario 256 they keep doubling the previous number till wew can't count
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

If it's a Revolution title (and it's going to be), I'm banking on 256 instead of 128. Then again, I'm thinking it's just a lame-o codename.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

by the way which match crushed the final few 0 brackets
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

Knux vs. Magus
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/

Actually, it was Ocelot Vs Pac-man.
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus

He's asking for the zeroes, not the perfects.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

Oh. Darn. Forget it then.
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus

I'd prefer Summer and Winter Contests, but that's me.
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 29/32. Today: Mario, tomorrow: Zero

Hey, Ness finally broke 10,000 votes.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Summer winter contests seems like the logical thing, that way theres no rush inbetween to get the contests up like there was in 2k4 if i'm not mistaken.
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"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee

I don't think Sephiroth got SFFed in 2k4. I believe Sephiroth was simply overrated in 2k3.


Sephiroth wasn't overrated in 2k3. Most of his division is pretty solid from 2k3 to 2k4. It's Mega Man who was overrated in 2k3. The last non-FFVII character in the bracket, people would've voted for him to avoid a Cloud/Sephiroth final, the same way the voted for Sephiroth in 2k2 to avoid a Link/Mario final.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

hope everything's all right, Harrich.

Appreciate the concern.


I think now's a good time to start writin' up the column for today's match, since this topic's goin' slow.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Write-Up: Mario wins. He got more votes. YOU'LL NEVER DEFEAT MARIOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
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Knuckles the Echidna's road to the Sc2k5 Title!
Round 2: (2)Squall Leonhart

...brilliant!!!
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I'd personally like to see Females in the Spring, and the Games return in the Summer for '06. I can live without the great character battle for one year. Besides, I think spring for the games contest would be too soon with games like Twilight Princess, KH2, & FFXII being delayed till early next year.

What do the X-stats predict Mario to get today?

I wanna know how much SFF there is here.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

Vincent > Dante with 54%.
Tifa > Luigi with 55%.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

High 60s, I believe.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

Mario VS Ness in 2k3 has Ness gettin' 20.22%, though Ness was SFF'd directly by Bowser. Mario VS Ness in 2k4 has Ness gettin' 27.52%, though Ness was SFF'd indirectly by Auron/Sephiroth. I'll let somebody else adjust Ness if they like, but those two are the SFF'd-Ness projections.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Hmm. Well, it would've been a 70-30 match then. Not too far off.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

Some mildly interesting statistics, which no doubt someone has picked up on already:

vs. Sephiroth:

Mario 38.40%
Bowser 40.45%

vs. Ness:

Bowser 75.07%
Mario ~83%

Ergo Mario is king when it comes to SFFing Nintendo characters and Samus is doomed. There's only two characters immune to SFF in my book and Samus isn't one of them :-)

I'll post my winners and losers of the last division tomorrow. Been busy on another site recently, haven't had the time to do it today. Not that anyone reads/comments on them anyway :-)
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

Mario is king when it comes to SFFing Nintendo characters

May I bring up Fox and Ganondorf? Fox is just ever so slightly stronger than Ness, nowhere near the gap between Link and Mario, and Fox is actually liked for his own game. Ganondorf lost two thirds of his expected votes to Link. Bowser to Mario? Not even one third.

And still, he couldn't do jack squat against Samus. Samus wins.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

And, of course, it should be noted that Mario SFF'd Bowser to only gettin' 29.35% against Mario too. Let's not bring up the ass-whooping Captain Olimar got or DK another time.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Oh, and Yoshi, too. He's much stronger than Fox, yet he was kept to a very similar percentage.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

29.35%? That's higher than I remembered... make that one quarter.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

Link is the king when it comes to Nintendo SFF and if we have to debate if Link SFFd Samus, then the signs arent looking good that Mario would be able to do much of it.

Thus, Mario over Samus have to hope that Mario is legitimately stronger than Samus.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man

From Creative's X-stats page:

Ganon: +167.58% (Link)
Bowser: +41.52% (Mario)
Yoshi: +38.13% (Link)

That's how much the three were adjusted upward. It's kinda sad that Mario got barely more SFF on Bowser than Link did on Yoshi. As for Ganon...well, nothing needs to be said there. Link is far better at SFFing than anyone else.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Mushroom Division Round 2 - Match 34 – (3)Zero vs. (2)Lloyd

Zero - When Robots and Ninjas fight, everybody wins.
Round 1 – vs. Ryu H. (Zero: 63.00% - Ryu: 37.00%)

Zero doesn’t perform as well as expected, but it’s good nonetheless.

Lloyd - He uses two swords for twice the power. Pure genius…
Round 1 – vs. Wesker (Lloyd: 54.69% - Wesker: 45.31%)

Yeah…Wesker did good…nothing else to say.

Before Round 1, Zero had a 99.8% chance of winning this match against Lloyd. After Round 1, Zero has a 103% chance of winning this match. Look at that. Not even 55% of Wesker! This is the same Wesker who only got 60% on Luca. The same Wesker that Kefka got 70% on. The same Wesker that sleeps with zombies! Sleeps with zombies people! Anyway, here’s some cut lines from Bizzaro Tales of Symphonia.

Lloyd: Justice and love….ah, screw it. DARKNESS PEOPLE! DARKNESS!

Zelos: Sheena, I’m going to touch your boobies.
Sheena: Here, let me get all these clothes away from them then.
Zelos: …….I change my mind. I’m too scared.

Colette: Teehee, I’m not a virgin.
Lloyd: GEEENNNIIIISSSS!!!!!!

Raine: 2 + 2 = 5, History sucks, and I am NOT jealous of Sheena!

Regal: You know Presea…you’re hot just like your sister.
Presea: *chops Regal in half and eats his corpse*
Wesker: That’s the nastiest thing I’ve ever seen, and I fight zombies.

Kratos: I wear underwear with bunnies on it. That’s how badass I am!

Raine: Genis, YOU ARE NOT THE FATHER!
Genis: **** yeah! *dances*
Lloyd: Then it must be YUUUAAAANNNN!!!!!!!
Yuan: Nobody expects the plot device!

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Zero will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Zero: 66% - Lloyd: 34%



Ulti’s Analysis

(Special note from Ulti: I'm either getting married or on my honeymoon as you're reading this, so know that all of my second round writeups will suck. I'm doing the same short writeups that I did for the last round, because I don't have time to be extensive.)

(Special note from Moltar: Mom found the X-Stats and threw them away. I should have hid them better.)

[Insert good analysis here]

(Moltar): Alright, since Ulti says to insert a good analysis, I shall. Kefka beat Wesker with 70%. Wesker beat Luca with 60%. Magus beat Luca with 80%. Lloyd beat Wesker with 55%. Zero lost to Mega Man with 43%. Mega Man beat Snake with 56%. Snake beat Knuckles with 60%. Knuckles beat Kefka with 57%. Knuckles also beat Magus with 51%. What does all this mean? Nothing. I don’t even understand it, but it’s good. So good, you don’t even know. Now for Ulti’s prediction.

Prediction: Zero with 68.68%



Soul’s Analysis

How they got here

Zero defeated Ryu Hayabusa 63% - 37%
Lloyd Irving defeated Wesker 54.69% - 45.31%

The second match for round 2 features two competitors who underperformed slightly in round 1. Of course, there have been many reasons announced about why they underperformed, but those don't matter right now. All that matters is who wins this match.

Let's face it. There have been harder matches to predict in the past. It's glaringly obvious that Zero is going to dominate here. Lloyd has disappointed greatly in his first match against Wesker. In fact, if the Spring Contest's stats meant anything, Lloyd would be around the same strength as Mithos. If the main character is as weak as the villain, then something must be wrong.

Basically, Zero has always performed exceedingly well in these contests. He got 44% on Mega Man and 47.66% on Sonic in 2003. If that doesn't tell you how strong he is, I don't know what will.

My prediction: Zero wins with 69.99%. Mario Vs. Zero could be a good match. Could be...

Outback’s Analysis

While Wesker is an enigma strength-wise, we can be pretty sure, based on Leon's peformance, that his ceiling is Jill, who got beat by Hayabusa, who Zero got about 62% on.

Zero with 60.53%



Inviso’s Analysis

Round one was not go for either of these competitors as Zero greatly underperformed against Ryu Hayabusa, and Lloyd completely bombed against Wesker. That was a match where Lloyd did around the same as Mithos was expected to do in the Spring Contest. Lloyd is the main character, and I highly doubt Mithos is stronger than him, so maybe ToS hype is finally dying down and it’s going into the status it’ll be known as for the rest of its shelf-life. Cult. Despite Zero underperforming and the delusions of certain Nintendo fanboy board members *coughcoughMoogleKupocoughcough* he still came within three percentage points of beat Sonic, a feat Only Miss Aeris Gainesborough can attest to. (Although, a certain character has a good chance at BEATING Sonic, but she’s another story) Zero’s gonna win, and I believe he’ll win more spectacularly than he did against Ryu.

My Bracket: Zero
My Vote: Zero
My Prediction: Zero with 66.92%



Tnote’s Analysis

Lloyd laid a real egg in round one, performing worse, extrapolatedly, than his villain Mithos was expected to perform. I still think Zero has an outside shot at taking down Mario, however after seeing the X-Stats raping that took place in Magus/Knuckles, Yuna/Ganondorf and Luigi/KOS-MOS, I fully expect Mario to never be challenged in his push towards 60%. The only real question for me in this match is if Zero will be able to double the ToS protagonist, and unless Lloyd gets some kind of higher-seed picture advantage (like on a Sylvarant battlefield), I do not see it happening. This will be the final unentertaining match for, well, a really long time. Kudos CjayC, for the upcoming week of hell.

Pick: Zero with 68.27%



Vlado’s Analysis

So, we got a third vs. second seed match. Interesting? Not really. Zero is one of the strongest contestants in history, while Lloyd is the hero of an RPG that's just barely above cult level. Lloyd uses two swords, as two's better than one, but that will be far from enough to do any damage to Zero. If we estimate Lloyd's strength through Albert Wesker, it'll turn out he's weaker than the villain of his game, Mithos. Which would be a laughable assumption. The stats suck, I think we can all agree on that after Round 1. Lloyd will do respectably, and his win over Wesker was quite a feat by itself, but this is Zero we're talking about. Zero, who gave Sonic a hard time, and I'm sure the same will happen to Mario.

Zero took 63% of the votes against Ryu Hayabusa in his ninja outfit. That proved that he's still very strong, and this year's oddities won't be affecting him. The division final between him and Mario will be much closer than people expect it to be. Mark my words. Could Zero even do the unthinkable and take his division? Not likely, but why not? Under certain circumstances, it could happen, even if it's more of a dream at this point. No matter how badly he beats Lloyd, Mario will be the favourite in their match. However, Zero has proved many times that he's not one to be underestimated.

Predicted percentage: Zero with 68.43%.

Bowser is too awesome to be SFF to the degree that Ganondorf did.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Match 34: (3) Zero vs. (2) Lloyd Irving

Past Performances

Zero

Summer 2005
Beat Ryu Hayabusa, 63.00% - 37.00%

Win-Lose Record
4-2

Lloyd Irving

Summer 2005
Beat Albert Wesker, 54.69% - 45.31%

Win-Lose Record
1-0

Analysis

Lloyd is the weakest character that’s left in this contest and Zero is far from second weakest. This match isn’t going to be pretty and except for Mario vs. Ness this match may be the biggest blowout this round. It looks like board favorites don’t have any kind of strength in these contests.

The only thing left to talk about for Zero is whether or not we should use his adjusted or unadjusted x-st for his since his match against Hayabusa made us believe that he shouldn’t have been adjusted, but many people blame that on Ryu’s picture. I don’t feel that either Zero or Ryu are unknown characters, but if the person didn’t know either character I don’t think Ryu would be in favor since Zero’s picture was just as good.

Lloyd also underperformed against his opponent, but to a larger extent (from what the board thought). Not many people think that Lloyd would be very close to Mithos, but I don’t really find it that surprising since most ToS fans would vote for their characters. On the other hand the x-st for the villains is a weird bunch and should be taken with a grain of salt (just like all the other x-st).

This match was never in question when the brackets was released and round 1 proved it. Lloyd may even fall below 30% now, but I think he’ll barley brake 30% though. Before we get to the interesting matches this round we first have to live through a few boring matches, but hopefully most of the matches we are hyping for will turn out to be close, but we’ll probably be lucky to get two nail-biters.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Zero over Lloyd

charmander6000’s Prediction: Zero wins, 69.15% - 30.85%

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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.

I still can't believe Mario is raping Ness this bad. This means Servbot is ahead of him in the X-Stats m i rite >_>
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.

Zero is going to break 70% on Lloyd.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Zero wins the picture vote soooooooooooooo badly, it's not even funny.

Zero with 69%

PROVE ME WRONG, VOTERS!

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My Summer Contest Score: 26/32 - Todays Pick: Mario
KingBartz: Been a Virgin since '87

Wesker didn't even get 30% against Kefka, and I'd wager my house that Zero would beat Kefka worse than what Lloyd beat Wesker. I'm gonna say Lloyd gets 26%.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I can't see Lloyd doing so bad that he's going to fail to get even 30% of the vote... He won't be THAT much weaker than Ryu H. is....
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.

Please don't bring up Wesker/Kefka, it's too.... weird.
~~~
Deejay is as serious as they come. Beneath his sexy, stereotypical exterior beats the heart of a true angry black man. - Titan44

What does Lloyd have to break on Zero to place him above Mithos? Because I would be really shocked if he didn't, to be honest. Though I suppose stranger things have happened...
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"i started playing mario brothers as luigi and threw the controller down in disgust in the middle of the game because he lacked character"--gokujont

"Cute pic" Mithos over performed on "Ugly pic" Kefka. If Lloyd and Mithos faced each other directly, Lloyd would win very easily. SFF would help a lot, but it wouldn't make the difference in winning or losing. Despite what the stats say, Lloyd will have more strength than Mithos.
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.

Kefka virtually ALWAYS has an ugly pic. -_-

And that didn't answer my question. I have no doubt Lloyd would win in a straight-up match, but even if one character beats another directly they can still be weaker indirectly. I want to know if that will be true for Lloyd.
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"i started playing mario brothers as luigi and threw the controller down in disgust in the middle of the game because he lacked character"--gokujont

Please don't bring up Wesker/Kefka, it's too.... weird.

According to Leonhart (I haven't done the numbers myself, though they certainly sound plausible), if you base Luca in 2k4 off of Magus in 2k5 and assume Luca remained constant from 2k4 to Spring 2k5, then Kefka/Wesker turns out to be lookin' pretty accurate.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Yeah, Kefka/Wesker looks good now, I must admit. However, if Lloyd does well enough on Zero, it's going to throw it into doubt again.
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"i started playing mario brothers as luigi and threw the controller down in disgust in the middle of the game because he lacked character"--gokujont