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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 210
From: metoolfan | Posted: 8/20/2005 5:27:26 AM | Message Detail
Pac Man defeating Ocelot represents the worst result in contest history.
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PH33R THE HANDGESTURE! http://handgesture.ytmnd.com/
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/20/2005 5:30:41 AM | Message Detail
No, that one's cool. Master Hand over Kuja, on the other hand... not only that, but Master Hand over every villain in existence save the other 31. Master Hand isn't even evil per say. He's just the final boss. He's just THE HAND OF A KID WHO PLAYS WITH FIGURINES.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 8/20/2005 5:38:27 AM | Message Detail
Yikes, Mario has above 83%, this is crazy even with SFF.
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When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/20/2005 5:41:07 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, can't say I expected a quintupling. I mean, DK got 18.02%, and Ness is a bit weaker, but he has the advantage of having hardcore fans. WHERE THE HELL ARE THEY TODAY?
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: jonthomson | Posted: 8/20/2005 5:44:00 AM | Message Detail
Of course Pac-Man would likely beat Ridley. But I was away during Ridley/Diablo and missed the opportunity to moan, complain and claim the contest has lost all credibility. And also see my leaderboard-sitting perfect bracket disappear. A sad day.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/20/2005 5:47:51 AM | Message Detail
Pac-Man/Ridley is a match I'd love to see, honestly.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/20/2005 6:10:55 AM | Message Detail
I'd always heard that PDS sold 12000 copies in the US. Also, don't forget about anti-votes, and the people who haven't played either game.

Yeah, can't say I expected a quintupling. I mean, DK got 18.02%, and Ness is a bit weaker, but he has the advantage of having hardcore fans. WHERE THE HELL ARE THEY TODAY?

Probably playing SSBM. >_>
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/20/2005 6:13:51 AM | Message Detail
And also, many played other PD games and enjoyed them. They would, probably, vote PDS on the merit of it being part of a series they like. Much like many FF fans do.
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: CompmanJX3 | Posted: 8/20/2005 6:33:36 AM | Message Detail
I had a hunch the SFF in this match would rival Link vs. Dorf.

Percentage-wise, anyway.
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Currently: 31/34 | Next: Zero
From: cyko | Posted: 8/20/2005 6:52:32 AM | Message Detail
well, hey, at least today's match pretty much confirms that, yes, Ness gets the majority of his popularity and contest strength from SSBM and SSB.

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/20/2005 6:58:52 AM | Message Detail
Duh. I'm talking about those who vote for Ness because of Earthbound. I vote for him because of SSBM, so I might as well vote Mario.

What is an adjusted Ness expected to get on Mario pre-SFF, anyway? I'm thinking something in the low 30s...
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: voltch | Posted: 8/20/2005 7:14:14 AM | Message Detail
so knuckles actually beat magus and ocelot lost to pac man heh this contest is just full of surprises. to think people were saying magus is stronger than snake must seem strange now i suppose
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/20/2005 7:15:20 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, I figured Ness' cult status would keep him over 20%, but apparently it won't.

And Adj. Ness gets 27.53% on Mario.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Mario vs. Ness - Bracket: Mario - Vote: Mario (28/32)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/20/2005 7:17:51 AM | Message Detail
In 2004 I was reading commentary from 2002 and I laughed at how stupid we were. If I were to read 2003 commentary this year I'd have an even more hearty laugh. Of course, if I ever read 2005 commentary in two years... well, you know the drill.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 8/20/2005 7:22:19 AM | Message Detail
Will Knuckle take the division?

This is a question I'm asking myself now, he really looks like he could take out Squall and the winner of Dante/Vincent if he can edge out Magus.
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Today's subliminal thought is:
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/20/2005 7:23:22 AM | Message Detail
Squall's going to kill him. Sorry. Magus got whacked cuz he was weak.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 8/20/2005 7:25:02 AM | Message Detail
This is a question I'm asking myself now, he really looks like he could take out Squall and the winner of Dante/Vincent if he can edge out Magus.

I am thinking Vincent > Squall > Knuckles

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka
From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 8/20/2005 7:28:22 AM | Message Detail
The only thing that would prevent Knuckles from going on an upset run is the sole dropping of Magus from last year, which made him look better than he is. I agree with that.

I wouldn't be surprised if Knuckles beat Squall, that's what I'm trying to say.
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Today's subliminal thought is:
From: WilhuffTarkin | Posted: 8/20/2005 7:29:42 AM | Message Detail
Are people still sore about Pac-Man beating Revolver Ocelot? Man. They just don't realize the greatness of Pac-Man.

Anyhow, as far as the Devil division goes, I expect taht Squall will beat Knuckles pretty handily, and he will have a tough match in the form of the winner of Dante/Vincent Valentine, which i don't know how to call at this point.

On another note, people seem to think that Knuckles is going to get steamrolled by Squall (I myself think that Squuall will win without much challenge, although I hope otherwise), however I think they would be singing a different tune if Magus had actually beaten Knuckles and it were Squall vs. Magus. Is that a fair assessment?
From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 8/20/2005 7:32:44 AM | Message Detail
No, the hypothetical Squall/Magus match-up was hotly debated. The Squall supporters backed up their FF8 protagonist while the majority got behind Magus.
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Today's subliminal thought is:
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/20/2005 7:33:08 AM | Message Detail
Had Magus won by something like 500 votes, I think most of us would be singing the tune of Vincent over Squall in the division finals regardless.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/20/2005 7:34:37 AM | Message Detail
I am not really sure why anyone thought Ness would perform better against Mario than Bowser, but hey, to each their own. 85% seems like an outside shot... and seeing no more perfects, and a guy with CJ winning it all on the top 50, makes me love this contest even more.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 29/31
From: WilhuffTarkin | Posted: 8/20/2005 7:39:30 AM | Message Detail
Okay, fair enough. But now let me ask this- as someone who's never played any of the Final Fantasy or Devil May Cry games, why do you think Vincent will beat Dante? Because although I've never played those games, I have done some research on them to be a better judge of sorts for who gets my vote, and I don't see why Vincent would have a better chance than Dante.
From: Lieutenant Kettch | Posted: 8/20/2005 7:39:46 AM | Message Detail
On the topic of PDS, you need to consider that most copies of the game have been through ebay about 5 times as well. Most people buy it, play it, and resell it, which makes the official copies sold number pretty meaningless.
From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 8/20/2005 7:41:09 AM | Message Detail
You forgot the fact that EBay sellers jack the price up to make a profit, claiming it's a "rare item" (FFT, CT and Suikoden II went through the same at various points).
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Today's subliminal thought is:
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/20/2005 7:42:14 AM | Message Detail
Have you seen what they did first round? Dante was damn impressive, but it can be chalked up to 2D FF characters being miserably weak more than anything else (see Cecil). But Vincent... damn. If Kerrigan = Freeman, Vincent = contest elite. We know Dante is no elite, heck, he's not even the tier under elite.

Dante is dead.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/20/2005 7:43:56 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, I figured Ness' cult status would keep him over 20%, but apparently it won't.

Then again Ness gets a ton of his popularity from ssb/ssbm. Possibly even more then he gets from earthbound.
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/20/2005 7:47:01 AM | Message Detail
Ness has barely more than half of the percentage he'd get without SFF. The only character that's been SFFed worse than that is Ganondorf against Link.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 8/20/2005 7:47:39 AM | Message Detail
I loved Pac-Man over Ocelot and Master Hand > Kuja. Both very funny upsets by a character I liked more. Too bad I didn't bank on PM winning like I did with MH. Hahaha.
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 8/20/2005 7:48:37 AM | Message Detail
Ness benefits from either the Nintendo or Earthbound fanbase, and I would definately assume a signifigant would go over to Mario's side in a Mario/Ness match.
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Today's subliminal thought is:
From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/20/2005 7:55:45 AM | Message Detail
has a person ever made the top 50 before with a winner that's already gone? I don't ever remember one.

Yup. Several times. Back in SC2K2 there was somebody with Solid Snake winning the contest on the leaderboard for a little while even after Snake beat Crono. Also, somebody with Samus winning the SC2K2 contest in their bracket lasted until Link took out Sephiroth. =p I'm sure there are other instances...

To explain Panzer Dragoon Saga...there are two reasons it got so many votes:

1)Many people voted for it just because they've HEARD of it, it is an RPG, and that it's supposed to be really good. And they don't like Goldeneye all that much.
2)Voters went for PDS out of sheer hatred against Goldeneye.

Okay, so the vast majority of PDS' extra votes probably came from #1.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: voltch | Posted: 8/20/2005 7:55:56 AM | Message Detail
by the way how big a scandal did knuckles beating magus make?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/20/2005 8:34:47 AM | Message Detail
Poor Ness :(

Anyway, while I have a free minute between getting my tux and going to my rehearsal (everyone in the damned bridal party has apparently forgotten how to follow directions), CJayC finally responded to a question I had about George Romero.

His claims of past cheating are highly unlikely; nothing like this had ever been seen previously.

Romero was caught stuffing 1800 votes for Kefka in a meaningless one point match in which the winner was doomed regardless. I doubt that any of his other accusations are true, especially given the magnitude of his claims and how closely CJayC looks at the high profile matchups. Translated, there is no way in hell that he has been doing this in every contest and gotten away with it if he were dumb enough to get caught in the manner he did.He was just a guy stretching out his 15 minutes.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/20/2005 8:49:36 AM | Message Detail
I think this lil' bit is interesting:

2k2: Donkey Kong gets 18.02% against Mario in the Sweet Sixteen.
2k5: Ness currently gets 16.11% against Mario in the second round.

Ness and Donkey Kong are, by no means, all that far away from each other (in fact, I think a match between 'em would be pretty damn hard to predict)...but for as hardcore of a fanbase as Ness is supposed to have and for as quick to leave DK as his fanbase is accused of, this is a fun lil' stat to see.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: jonthomson | Posted: 8/20/2005 8:52:39 AM | Message Detail
From: voltch | Posted: 8/20/2005 3:55:56 PM | #082
by the way how big a scandal did knuckles beating magus make?

The only thing that could possibly be bigger would have been Freeman winning, but the universe would be too busy imploding for us to worry about that. It was full of people losing seven points complaining, blaming the stats and trying to save face, while those of us who lost one were laughing.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/20/2005 8:56:26 AM | Message Detail
I lost seven points and I'm not really blaming the stats. They indicated he was over-rated in the first place, jeeze.
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 8/20/2005 9:07:02 AM | Message Detail
Am I the only one who would pick Joanna Dark over Ness in 2006 after seeing today's match?
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When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg
From: swirldude | Posted: 8/20/2005 9:09:35 AM | Message Detail
Yes
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Knuckles the Echidna's road to the Sc2k5 Title!
Round 2: (2)Squall Leonhart
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/20/2005 9:11:42 AM | Message Detail
A lot of people knew that Magus was overrated, but few thought he would be overrated to that degree. It actually disgusted me to see people say that Magus would beat Sonic hands down because he ranked .01 higher than Sonic in the "godly" X-stats. Ulti is included in that group, I'm not letting him off the hook. I specifically remember his post in 2k3 stating so. :P

What disgusted me even MORE was Magus's 2k3 ranking getting arbitrarily plugged into the 2k4 stats, and THEN people bragging that he placed in the top 10 both years...
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Yesmar | Posted: 8/20/2005 9:20:11 AM | Message Detail
Romero was caught stuffing 1800 votes for Kefka in a meaningless one point match in which the winner was doomed regardless. I doubt that any of his other accusations are true, especially given the magnitude of his claims and how closely CJayC looks at the high profile matchups. Translated, there is no way in hell that he has been doing this in every contest and gotten away with it if he were dumb enough to get caught in the manner he did.He was just a guy stretching out his 15 minutes.


I'm not saying I believe him either, but you always hear stories in real life about murderers that were just caught due to traffic violations or something. A *lot* of times people that get away with something for a long time get caught on something relatively simple.
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"I don't like it when people I don't like get what they want."--Janelle
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/20/2005 9:26:00 AM | Message Detail
No one said Magus would definitely beat Sonic. We merely thought he had a solid shot.

Oh, and about the Romero thing, can I get a DUH? The crap about FFT and Starcraft was a dead giveaway.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/20/2005 9:30:30 AM | Message Detail
No one said Magus would definitely beat Sonic. We merely thought he had a solid shot.

You wanna bet? I didn't say everyone in the topic said it, but there were a good number of people who said they would definitely take Magus over Sonic. You kinda remember discrete things like that when they involve one of your favorite characters.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/20/2005 9:32:53 AM | Message Detail
That involves TWO of my favorite characters, and I still don't recall much of that. Anyway, I always had this feeling the ZOMG SNOIC IS GONG DOWN propaganda was complete feces, and look at what happens every year.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 8/20/2005 9:45:25 AM | Message Detail
We're really looking at an awesome stretch of matches coming up here.

Tomorrow's match is a good test of whether or not the ToS fanbase is more loyal than most.

Monday's match should give us a definitive answer on Frog.

Tuesday is the next stop on our "X-Stats Suck!" tour with the lovely little Auron/Ganondorf matchup:

By the 2k3 stats, Ganondorf wins w/ 58.63%
By the 2k4 stats, Ganondorf wins w/ 57.72%
By Auron = 2k4 and Ganondorf = Sp2k5, Ganondorf wins w/ 61.94%, making Auron the weakest of the four FFX entrants in the bracket.

Wednesday, Zelda has a sporting shot at knocking Snake out of the "tournament elite", and at the same time prove that Vivi was SFF'd by Sephy.

Thursday and Friday, we get two of the trickiest matches of the tournament in Sora/Alucard and Kirby/Tidus.

On Saturday, Bowser gets to tear into Ryu. The best part about this is that it will (incorrectly) make his spring stats look semi-valid just four days after Ganondorf's are made to look like a joke.

And we wrap things up on Sunday with a Master Chief/Donkey Kong match that's bound to not make a lick of sense no matter which way it goes.

*tear drop* This all makes me so very, very happy.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/20/2005 9:47:02 AM | Message Detail
On Saturday, Bowser gets to tear into Ryu.

Ryu will win with less than 51%.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 28/32 points
Current Match Prediction: Mario vs. Carl Johnson
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/20/2005 9:54:05 AM | Message Detail
I don't know why people are hyping about the next week. The only matches I can see that will be interesting are Alucard/Sora and Ryu/Bowser
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/20/2005 9:56:09 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/20/2005 9:56:25 AM | Message Detail
Zelda/Snake
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/20/2005 10:02:50 AM | Message Detail
Zelda/Snake

That's going to be more like Yoshi/Luigi or Ocelot/Wily where people this it's going to be close, but it turns out to be a 55/45 match
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/20/2005 10:10:51 AM | Message Detail
By the 2k3 stats, Ganondorf wins w/ 58.63%
By the 2k4 stats, Ganondorf wins w/ 57.72%
By Auron = 2k4 and Ganondorf = Sp2k5, Ganondorf wins w/ 61.94%, making Auron the weakest of the four FFX entrants in the bracket.


Well, I know who's going to be ripping the stats first when Auron gets at least 48% on Ganondorf...

And I don't think DK/Ness is a hard match to call, really. I'd take the big ape without thinking about it.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
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