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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 210
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/19/2005 11:43:46 PM | Message Detail
And we've reached the halfway point of the contest. Now it really starts to get good. And at least Pac-Man gets one last hurrah.

*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Spring 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/27

All Time Extrapolated Standings:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/alltimexsts.htm



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251



!yawA tsoP
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 8/19/2005 11:44:43 PM | Message Detail
Sora/Zelda = Match of the century.
---
I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti
From: Undeniable | Posted: 8/19/2005 11:44:48 PM | Message Detail
And yet you got Ocelot into this contest.
~~~
Deejay is as serious as they come. Beneath his sexy, stereotypical exterior beats the heart of a true angry black man. - Titan44
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/19/2005 11:45:24 PM | Message Detail
No, I didn't. This board did. I wasn't the one who decided we should nominate him.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Undeniable | Posted: 8/19/2005 11:54:57 PM | Message Detail
True, but you could've been mean and banned him.
~~~
Deejay is as serious as they come. Beneath his sexy, stereotypical exterior beats the heart of a true angry black man. - Titan44
From: swirldude | Posted: 8/19/2005 11:55:29 PM | Message Detail
SO SOON?
---
Knuckles the Echidna's road to the Sc2k5 Title!
Round 2: (2)Squall Leonhart
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/20/2005 1:51:24 AM | Message Detail
And why wouldn't Luigi be stronger than Ryu? He did 8% better against the same character!

Because people look at the Xsts and don't want to believe that Luigi has any legitimate strength.

"Whoamg, but he's so low! He can't jump up that much!"

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 8/20/2005 1:54:00 AM | Message Detail
Alucard>Sora
---
When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg
From: Heroic Dr Wily | Posted: 8/20/2005 1:56:49 AM | Message Detail
So almost everybody in the villians contest is weaker than Pac Man.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/20/2005 1:57:36 AM | Message Detail
Nothing wrong with that. Pac Man owns.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Undeniable | Posted: 8/20/2005 1:59:38 AM | Message Detail
Luigi may have legitimate strength, it's just that he fakes us out each year.
~~~
Deejay is as serious as they come. Beneath his sexy, stereotypical exterior beats the heart of a true angry black man. - Titan44
From: Nai | Posted: 8/20/2005 2:02:19 AM | Message Detail
Luigi is going down against Tifa, right?
---
Currently playing: Killer7 [GC] + Yoshi Touch & Go [DS]
From: Heroic Dr Wily | Posted: 8/20/2005 2:02:25 AM | Message Detail
Luigi and Vergil were swapped at birth, Dante and Luigi are the brothers of overkill.
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/20/2005 2:04:17 AM | Message Detail
Luigi wavedashed for the win.
---
"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/20/2005 2:10:51 AM | Message Detail
No wonder it was a fairly large win!

*rimshot*
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/20/2005 2:13:40 AM | Message Detail
Luigi, Kirby, and Pac-Man all make Squall look better with their performances here. :P



---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/20/2005 2:33:20 AM | Message Detail
Ya! Ya! Ya! Ya! Ya! Ya! Ya! Ya! Ya! Ya! Ya! Ya! </Wavedancing>

Anyway, just beat the crapfest of gaming design known as Ninja Gaiden. The boss fights were awesome as hell, but the levels themselves are pure crap. The respawning enemies, Ryu not being able to jump backwards very well and Ryu's habits of clinging to a wall after taking a hit are one of many issues. There is also coding in the game that makes Mega Man 1 look like it had stellar design. After climbing a ladder into an area, if you jump off of the ladder and try to return to the previous area, you'll die.

Any platformer that makes Mega Man 1's design look superior has issues, especially considering that Ninja Gaiden came out two years after Mega Man 1. There is no ****ing reason for Ninja Gaiden to have such design/coding issues. It's a copycat industry, after all.

Though to end Ninja Gaiden on a high note, the boss fights were among the best I've seen on an NES title. I was quite happy when I finally figured out how to beat Jaquio with just the sword, though the final boss of the game was a minor letdown. He only took me three tries.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 8/20/2005 2:36:09 AM | Message Detail
Congratulations Ulti!

I don't know how many times I have played through the whole game and then just keep getting killed by Jaquio (There's a boss after him? I guess I will never beat that game >_>)


---
When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/20/2005 2:36:32 AM | Message Detail
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/20/2005 5:13:40 AM | Message Detail | #016
Luigi, Kirby, and Pac-Man all make Squall look better with their performances here. :P


Yep, because Luigi and Kirby performing well in 2005 automatically means that Squall will follow suit. And let me guess, is this because both characters faced Squall in previous contests? Lol, x-stats.

And Pac Man makes Squall look better? Come on. The two matches among the three characters are completely unrelated and happened in two different contests.

On a related note, is it just me or does Luigi suffer from Dante disease? He always beats the **** out of his first round opponent, then falls flat on his face in his next match.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Heroic Dr Wily | Posted: 8/20/2005 2:38:13 AM | Message Detail
Like I said Luigi and Vergil were switched at birth.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/20/2005 2:39:12 AM | Message Detail
I don't know how many times I have played through the whole game and then just keep getting killed by Jaquio (There's a boss after him? I guess I will never beat that game >_>)

To be fair, I used savestates. I can imagine how annoying it would be to have to restart from 6-1 every time you die against one of the bosses.

And why the **** would the programmers do this after being nice enough to let you start from the beginning of the level you died in throughout the entire game? ****in' morons.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: R3ddyX | Posted: 8/20/2005 2:39:44 AM | Message Detail
Y HALO THAR STEVE

---
Got alt?
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/20/2005 2:40:31 AM | Message Detail
And this isn't the only big name Tecmo title that has horrible design/coding issues. I also cite Tecmo Super Bowl. The fun factor of that game lets most people see past how horrible the gameplay actually is, but it's still a badly designed game regardless.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/20/2005 2:42:15 AM | Message Detail
Yep, because Luigi and Kirby performing well in 2005 automatically means that Squall will follow suit. And let me guess, is this because both characters faced Squall in previous contests? Lol, x-stats.

And Pac Man makes Squall look better? Come on. The two matches among the three characters are completely unrelated and happened in two different contests.

On a related note, is it just me or does Luigi suffer from Dante disease? He always beats the **** out of his first round opponent, then falls flat on his face in his next match.


Ever since Magus vs Knuckles, you started completely disregaring the X-Stats. Sure, they're not anywhere near perfect, but they do help. Although they did not show Magus being weak enough to be taken down by nuckles, they DID show him being overrated. Of course, you disregarded his showing aginst Sam and Luca due to your view that performances against fodder should not be taken into account. The X-stats aren't as useless as you think.

---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/20/2005 2:45:21 AM | Message Detail
Hey now, Leon called that match perfectly and I was completely serious when I said I wouldn't mind a loss to Knuckles. I went out and bought Sonic Mega Collection and SA2:B solely because of Knuckles.

My argument revolves around the fact that you shouldn't need to jump through hoops to be able to see such things in the first place.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/20/2005 2:49:18 AM | Message Detail
Eh, it just seems that EVERYONE here decided to throw the stats out solely on the merit of Magus vs Knuckles. I apologize.

---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/20/2005 2:51:20 AM | Message Detail
Do you agree with the last point I made, that you shouldn't need to jump through all of the hoops that Leon did to see whether or not someone's value is that far off before their match takes place?

And OMG, it's a CruelAngel post without a ";p" in it. I think his account was hacked.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/20/2005 2:56:06 AM | Message Detail
Do you agree with the last point I made, that you shouldn't need to jump through all of the hoops that Leon did to see whether or not someone's value is that far off before their match takes place?

And OMG, it's a CruelAngel post without a ";p" in it. I think his account was hacked.


What hoops did Leon jump through? Didn't he just mention Sam and Luca? As far as I can see, they were the only indicators of Magus being weaker than expected.

I don't use the ";p" too much, do I? o_O

---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/20/2005 2:56:13 AM | Message Detail
mario64ytmndbattlefield.ytmnd.com

What's the story behind the white guy with the afro and glasses that says "Please, I have to go"? That's the only joke I don't know in the entire ytmnd.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Chinballz | Posted: 8/20/2005 3:01:18 AM | Message Detail
That's Ugoff. And he's saying "Please. I am Ugoff."
---
Moisten your dreams with man urine.
http://www.geocities.com/nicklegends/ - All the Legends of the Hidden Temple info you could possibly want.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/20/2005 3:11:56 AM | Message Detail
He mentioned Tidus, Sam Fisher, Luca Blight, Ganondorf, and a ton of matches surrounding all of them that pointed to Magus being overrated to all hell. On a related note, I think the big anomaly with Magus isn't his match with Link so much as it is his match with Ganon. But that's a different story.

Anyway, yes, anyone could see such things in the stats if they looked hard enough. The point is that you shouldn't really need to, and let's not get into the Sonic-esque fanboys that the stats have.

There is a far bigger lack of transitivity in these matches than people are letting on, and I need point no farther than Goldeneye versus Panzer Dragoon Saga for an excellent example. Panzer Dragoon Saga received 14,500 votes in that match. It sold what, 6000 copies in America? Maybe 7000?

For the sake of argument, we'll add on a few hundred for the people that likely emulated the game and say that Panzer Dragoon Saga sold 7500 copies in the US.

If you assume that every single person who owns Panzer Dragoon Saga voted for it in that match, you still have 7000 votes to account for. Where did they all come from, hmm?

And from a common sense standpoint, there's no way in hell that every single person who owns PDS randomly decided to come onto GameFAQs that day. There's no way that all the people who owned the game would vote for it even if they were here, either. I don't think it's a stretch to say that PDS received well over 10000 votes from people who hadn't even seen or played the game, though if it is, you still have several thousand votes to think about.

You think this doesn't happen in every match? You think this doesn't happen on a much larger scale when factoring in the matches late in contests that are privy to a lot of vote rallying and high vote totals? There is no possible way for the Xsts to account for this either, hence the wild fluctuations we see from year to year volatility. I've said this hundreds of times, but every poll has a life of its own and people are not transitive robots. These contests are not about an arbitrary set of percentages that possibly has thousands of different layers attached due to the calculations all being based off of the character's losses. They are about what is going through the minds of the voters while they are voting. For all we know, Ocelot beats Pac Man comfortably with a better picture.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/20/2005 3:12:16 AM | Message Detail
Who is Ugoff?

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 8/20/2005 4:00:32 AM | Message Detail
Who is Ugoff?

All I know is that he was a guy on YTMND who would post "Please, I am Ugoff" comments in every YTMND that was made. He became somewhat of a fad after that.
---
Today's subliminal thought is:
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 8/20/2005 4:13:58 AM | Message Detail
It sold what, 6000 copies in America? Maybe 7000?

It may suprise you to learn that there are other countries outside of America. ~_~

---
Smurf , the cream of Knuckles Fanboyism
Now Playing: Tales of Symphonia (again), Burnout 3 (still), Loz:Minish Cap
From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 8/20/2005 4:16:32 AM | Message Detail
How well did PDS sell in Japan? I know the Saturn held on for a few years in Japan after it's death in the US in 1998.
---
Today's subliminal thought is:
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/20/2005 4:46:47 AM | Message Detail
Also isnt there ways of ::Cough:: acquire PDS through not so clear means ::Cough::?
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: jonthomson | Posted: 8/20/2005 4:48:19 AM | Message Detail
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/20/2005 7:45:24 AM | #004
No, I didn't. This board did. I wasn't the one who decided we should nominate him.

Yep. Silly board. Ridley would have beaten Pac-Man, I tell you.
---
Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/20/2005 4:49:13 AM | Message Detail
I have a hard time believing Pac-Man would lose to Ridley. Of course, I had a hard time believing Ocelot would lose to Pac-Man.
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/20/2005 5:12:10 AM | Message Detail
I'm aware that there are other countries outside of America, but when you add up all the non-US PDS owners who happened to have been on GF during that match, my guess would be that it adds up to the low 100s.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 8/20/2005 5:13:40 AM | Message Detail
Pac-Man would beat Ridley.

Would he beat Diablo, though?
---
Today's subliminal thought is:
From: KingBartz | Posted: 8/20/2005 5:13:50 AM | Message Detail
You know.... play it on your computer using a certain method...
---
My Summer Contest Score: 26/32 - Todays Pick: Mario
KingBartz: Been a Virgin since '87
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/20/2005 5:14:55 AM | Message Detail
For the sake of argument, we'll add on a few hundred for the people that likely emulated the game and say that Panzer Dragoon Saga sold 7500 copies in the US.

Someone failed Reading Comprehension.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: KingBartz | Posted: 8/20/2005 5:17:01 AM | Message Detail
oh.

*lowers his head in shame*

Well ya know....

Ganon > Auron
---
My Summer Contest Score: 26/32 - Todays Pick: Mario
KingBartz: Been a Virgin since '87
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/20/2005 5:17:18 AM | Message Detail
I agree with that.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/20/2005 5:19:28 AM | Message Detail
Anyway, I'm out. I have wedding stuff to take care of that will keep me off the site starting now, and I'll see everyone in a week.

Don't forget those guest PCA writeups!

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/20/2005 5:19:29 AM | Message Detail
Um, aren't you supposed to get, like, married today or something?

And, well, I agree with you in that "making someone look better by extension" is kinda stupid. A little random variation one way, a little random variation the other, and you have a 56-44 snoozefest instead of a nailbiter.

And as for the comment about FF7 being a weak franchise, I have to toss that in... FF7 is by no means a weak franchise. The thing is, Bowser and Ganondorf have a lot more to gain through franchise votes than Sephiroth does, what with him being so strong already and all.
---
"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/20/2005 5:19:54 AM | Message Detail
One second. Damn...
---
"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/20/2005 5:20:42 AM | Message Detail
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/20/2005 8:19:28 AM | Message Detail | #045
Anyway, I'm out. I have wedding stuff to take care of that will keep me off the site starting now, and I'll see everyone in a week.

Don't forget those guest PCA writeups!

~*ST*~

From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/20/2005 8:19:29 AM | Message Detail | #046
Um, aren't you supposed to get, like, married today or something?


~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: MetaRidleyX | Posted: 8/20/2005 5:23:14 AM | Message Detail
I got 500th post on the last Stats Topic GO ME.
---
Goldberg entertained me when he jobbed to inanimate objects.-The icon ownz all
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/20/2005 5:25:14 AM | Message Detail
And I disagree. Although this would most likely mean the end of bracket contests, a FF7 character winning the main bracket would be the most awesome piece of irony in the entire space-time continuum.
---
"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
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