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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 209
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:15:52 PM | Message Detail
I'll add Auron over Ganondorf and Ryu over Bowser to my upset list next round, baby. At least I hope so. It's lookin' better than it was before.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:17:16 PM | Message Detail
We have The Gauntlet coming up in a matter of days, so this list could be getting a lot longer. Don't fret if you have any upsets in The Gauntlet... they might lengthen these lists of yours.

17.11% picked Auron
02.63% picked Zelda
48.03% picked Alucard
15.79% picked Kirby
18.42% picked Ryu
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: outback | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:17:54 PM | Message Detail
Yes, because we can disregard their actual performances now because of Ocelot doing bad.
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From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:18:49 PM | Message Detail
Yes, their actual performances against characters we don't have an accurate read on.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:18:50 PM | Message Detail
Hey, Bowser did damn well in his match against Chun-Li. Just because the evidence is stacking up that the Spring stats are worthless unless you plug 2003 Bowser and Ganondorf (how long have I been hammering that point, already?) doesn't make Bowser much of a major underdog.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:19:51 PM | Message Detail
And I wouldn't exactly cite Ganondorf/Yuna as an impressive performance either...
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:21:49 PM | Message Detail
Yeah. Though one can chalk that up to FFX-2... the same FFX-2 that made, oh wait for it, RYU look like a pile of steaming crap at the hands of Rikku.

What goes around comes around.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: transience | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:22:38 PM | Message Detail
what about dante > vincent?

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From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:23:08 PM | Message Detail
Dante > Vincent? We're talking matches that can go either way, here.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:23:11 PM | Message Detail
And note that I didn't say, "Ooh, Ocelot looks like crap! Ryu is sure to win now!" I said this performance makes it look better than before, and it does. Seeing Ocelot perform so poorly speaks of the possibility of Bowser being overrated enough for Ryu to win.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:24:22 PM | Message Detail
Hey, Bowser did damn well in his match against Chun-Li. Just because the evidence is stacking up that the Spring stats are worthless unless you plug 2003 Bowser and Ganondorf (how long have I been hammering that point, already?) doesn't make Bowser much of a major underdog.

And I still think your point is wrong... And you complained about Ulti constantly driving in his thoughts on the stats... :P
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:24:40 PM | Message Detail
the same FFX-2 that made, oh wait for it, RYU look like a pile of steaming crap at the hands of Rikku.

Not really. You can't expect Ryu to put up a performance like Ganondorf did. After seeing Yuna do much better than expected, Rikku shouldn't have been all that surprising.

Besides, how often does Ryu ever look impressive?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:24:43 PM | Message Detail
It is possible. Though if Ryu does win that match, suddenly Rikku looks like a million bucks, and maybe even able to beat Tidus if he loses to Kirby.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:26:47 PM | Message Detail
Ryu never looked unimpressive, either.

And if Yuna and Rikku's great performances are interconnected, I think this says more about them than about Ganondorf and Ryu. Hence, Ganondorf > Auron doesn't look so bad either. You can make a solid point for both of them, as well as their opponents.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:28:30 PM | Message Detail
Eh, people aren't surprised about Tifa > Aeris. They shouldn't be surprised if Rikku turns out to be stronger than Yuna, too.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:31:15 PM | Message Detail
Going through Spring Ocelot, Pac-Man would be expected to get 50.33% on 2k4 Luigi. Unless we've seen the first ever case of rSFF, can we please stop calling Luigi/Pac-Man an SFF match? And actually give Luigi some credit? His match with Pac-Man (again, through Spring Ocelot) predicts him at 37.81%, and he delivered Pac-Man's worst beating, by far. Then, this year, he beats KOS-MOS by 3.75% less than Samus did after she gets a new game (reading this again, I meant KOS-MOS, but it applies to both), and over 8% more than Ryu did, again predicting him at 35.65%. Maybe (well, probably) he's not that high, but, then again, why do you think Tifa can beat Samus based on a single match with Vyse? At least Luigi has two of them.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:31:20 PM | Message Detail
These are two slightly different situations, though. Tifa has three advantages: the benefit of

*FF7 SPOILERS*

.

being in the entire game, and I'm sure you can figure out the other two yourself. ;)

Rikku, however, seems detested quite a bit, even moreso than Tidus. And while there ARE complaints about Yuna, they aren't nearly as vocal, plus she's more important anyway.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:32:43 PM | Message Detail
Is YOUR Spring Ocelot the same as mine, though? Mine has Bowser at 30% on Cloud.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:33:23 PM | Message Detail
Is YOUR Spring Ocelot the same as mine, though? Mine has Bowser at 30% on Cloud.

Which there's absolutely no reason for him to be at after he broke 40% on Sephiroth.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:33:42 PM | Message Detail
I'm sure you can figure out the other two yourself. ;)

Yeah, Rikku has them, too, and they're showed off quite nicely in X-2.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:34:02 PM | Message Detail
You just destroyed that whole point you tried to make, then. Bowser > Mario? NO.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:34:49 PM | Message Detail
You just destroyed that whole point you tried to make, then. Bowser > Mario? NO.

Of course not. 34% isn't higher than Mario; it's not even Noble Nine material. Well, maybe. There's always Snake.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: plasmabeam | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:34:53 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, Rikku has them, too, and they're showed off quite nicely in X-2.

*Just enters topic and sees this*

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SC2K5 - 29/32 points, Next Pick: Mario
Squall Leonhart
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:35:30 PM | Message Detail
Well, if Luigi is that strong, it wouldn't bother me. It makes Squall look better, though it's still weird to see Kirby outperform him if that's true, heh.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:36:25 PM | Message Detail
34%? Where'd you get that?

There's only one Bowser that strikes me as reliable, and that's the one who got 30% on Cloud. Putting Ocelot at around 20% on same Cloud, eons behind Luigi.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:37:28 PM | Message Detail
I don't think Luigi was that strong in 2k3. He's only supposed to get something like ~55% against KOS-MOS that year. I can, however, see Squall around where Tidus was ranked, because of Link/Samus SFF. I don't think he's still there, though.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:37:40 PM | Message Detail
And by admitting that Luigi is probably not as strong as his performance against Pac-Man showed, you're basically saying that it wasn't completely Luigi's merit, which was kind of your whole argument in the first place...
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:38:34 PM | Message Detail
34%? Where'd you get that?

There's only one Bowser that strikes me as reliable, and that's the one who got 30% on Cloud. Putting Ocelot at around 20% on same Cloud, eons behind Luigi.


Least Squares, done by both me and cn. And we've seen how reliable 2k3 stats are nowadays. *waves Magus flag*
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:40:15 PM | Message Detail
The one who failed to double Sam Fisher and barely defeated pre-boost Ganondorf and exposed Tidus for the overrated ****er he is? Works for me.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:40:36 PM | Message Detail
And by admitting that Luigi is probably not as strong as his performance against Pac-Man showed, you're basically saying that it wasn't completely Luigi's merit, which was kind of your whole argument in the first place...

I said give him some credit. I, in my quite possibly delusional glory, think Luigi over Sonic is quite viable. I'm not expecting everyone to take that leap, but at least give him some consideration.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:41:53 PM | Message Detail
Well I've been gone since part way through luigi vs. kos-mos and it doesn't seem like I missed all that much aside from luigi somehow looking like a viable option to beat tifa, or at least making it close, and pacman creating all sorts of havoc (by the way never drive through montreal, or quebec in general if you can. Worst.Drivers.Ever.). Well that and gordan freeman somehow finishing his match above 40% yet again.

I guess kirby over tidus and squall taking his division just started to look a lot more viable (not that magus's piss poor performance didn't make tidus look like he's in danger or anything).
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:41:56 PM | Message Detail
HM, remove that mask. NOW.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:42:39 PM | Message Detail
Huh? Quebec drivers actually making full stops at stop signs make them bad?
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:42:41 PM | Message Detail
Hey, I'm with you in thinking Luigi is underrated, but not up to Sonic's level (though I'd love it to be true). Seeing him below DK is all kinds of wrong though.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:42:57 PM | Message Detail
why do you think Tifa can beat Samus based on a single match with Vyse?

Because she did only 3% worse on Vyse than Cloud.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 28/32 points
Current Match Prediction: Mario vs. Carl Johnson
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:43:26 PM | Message Detail
The one who failed to double Sam Fisher and barely defeated pre-boost Ganondorf and exposed Tidus for the overrated ****er he is? Works for me.

And I'm glad you distrusted the 2k3 stats enough to pick Knuckles in your bracket and see how a grinning SMB1 Bowser sprite against Cloud in all his glory could cause some problems when it's evident that Bowser has increased since then.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:44:24 PM | Message Detail
He was never below DK. Always a step ahead. It seems wrong, but when you see Luigi losing over and over again to less-than-fully-deserving competition, you're just forced to accept it.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:45:08 PM | Message Detail
It seems wrong, but when you see Luigi losing over and over again to less-than-fully-deserving competition, you're just forced to accept it.

...When did Squall, Yoshi, and soon to be Tifa fall under that category?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:45:16 PM | Message Detail
Because she did only 3% worse on Vyse than Cloud.

And Luigi did only 3% worse on KOS-MOS than Samus when KOS has every reason to increase. Ergo, Luigi is the favorite against Sonic, if you want to use that logic.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:45:27 PM | Message Detail
If it was so evident, I'd see it. I don't.

And with that, I'm off to bed.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:45:31 PM | Message Detail
Huh? Quebec drivers actually making full stops at stop signs make them bad?

I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not. I'll just assume it is because of how amazingly bad the drivers are in montreal and the rest of quebec.
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From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:46:27 PM | Message Detail
If it was so evident, I'd see it. I don't.

You missed the whole >40% on Sephiroth thing? I'd call that pretty strong evidence.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:47:06 PM | Message Detail
Luigi couldn't beat a 60-40 spread against Squall. Squall certainly doesn't deserve 60% on Luigi.

Yoshi? Self-explanatory. He's not all that strong himself.

Tifa will wipe him away and make him look pathetic again. BOOK IT.

Now I'm really gone.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:47:18 PM | Message Detail
IIRC slowflae considers the spring contest xstats to be completely invalid for one reason or another.
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From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:47:32 PM | Message Detail
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/19/2005 11:46:27 PM | #292
If it was so evident, I'd see it. I don't.

You missed the whole >40% on Sephiroth thing? I'd call that pretty strong evidence.


I call that FRANCHISE VOTING.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:47:53 PM | Message Detail
Tifa will wipe him away and make him look pathetic again. BOOK IT.

I'll account bet with you (or anyone with >300 Karma) that Luigi at least breaks 45%.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:48:01 PM | Message Detail
...And that comment made absolutely no sense as slowflake responded to you before I did.
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From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:48:21 PM | Message Detail
I call that FRANCHISE VOTING.

Yeah, and FFVII is such a weak franchise. Franchise voting ensures Luigi > Tifa, then.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:49:04 PM | Message Detail
Squall certainly doesn't deserve 60% on Luigi.

Lies.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:52:50 PM | Message Detail
And Luigi did only 3% worse on KOS-MOS than Samus when KOS has every reason to increase. Ergo, Luigi is the favorite against Sonic, if you want to use that logic.

Luigi overperformed on KOS-MOS. I fail to see how an RPG character can suddenly drop to near Pac-Man's 2k4 level despite having a new release out which should have kept her constant at least. Luigi did the same thing to Pac-Man, which is showing in today's match. The same thing with Vyse. Vyse, a cult (notice the bold) character who remained static for two years cannot suddenly plummet to the level of the guy he beat 60-40%. You can say that Tifa overperformed as well (she's more recognizable, being from FF7 and all). But there's one problem: Cloud. Cloud is from the same game as Tifa. If you're saying Tifa overperformed, it's assumed Cloud overperformed as well.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 28/32 points
Current Match Prediction: Mario vs. Carl Johnson
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