I'm all for upsets, but not with Ocelot. Not with Ocelot. ;_;
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Sir Bormun: You mentioned something about coming up with a better formula. Aprosenf came up with the brilliant idea of using Least Squares Regression. I think taking the standard stats, then adding in the LSG formula and giving the characters ranges would be as accurate as we could possibly get. On paper, at least. No stats can effort account for all of the factors.

Ulti, that is waaay too complicated.

Think of the hours you (or whoever will actually do the math) must spent to get something like that up and running.

IMO, the X-stats are as good as it gets, it's a nice trade-off between accuracy and simplicity.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

*absolutely certain*

1. Mario over Ness
2. Crono over Vercetti
3. Samus over Frog
4. Yoshi over Pac-Man
5. Megaman over Leon
6. Zero over Lloyd
7. Sonic over Diablo
8. Tifa over Luigi
9. Dante over Vincent

*not confident* (I could basically see all of these picks going wrong)

10. Solid Snake over Zelda
11. Tidus over Kirby
12. Ganondorf over Auron
13. Alucard over Sora
14. Master Chief over Donkey Kong
15. Bowser over Ryu

N/A

16. Squall over Knuckles

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:41:28 PM | Message Detail | #151
I'm all for upsets, but not with Ocelot. Not with Ocelot. ;_;

It's Pac Man. There is no task in any Metal Gear Solid game that can compare to getting a perfect score in Pac Man.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

You could see Master Chief vs Donkey Kong going wrong???
---
"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:43:38 PM | Message Detail
*absolutely certain*

9. Dante over Vincent

Wait, didn't you said that Dante won't get 45% on Vincent?

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

You are absolutely certain that Dante beats Vincent?
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man

The X-Sts bashing comes from people who can't use them correctly. No one did to perfection on the Magus case, though some did a much better job than others (wink wink those with Squall > Magus).

More proof that Ulti can and will make other people say whatever he wants: one day he advocates throwing in some common sense with the stats because one without the other is worthless, and everyone's cool with that; and the next day he'll say both are worthless together (jealous much of people who guessed the late spring stats were BS right of the bat?) and everyone'll bite. </rant>
---
"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

*absolutely certain*
1) Mario over Ness
2) Zero over Lloyd Irving
3) Samus over Frog
4) Crono over Tommy Vercetti
5) Sonic over Diablo
6) Mega Man over Leon Kennedy
7) Yoshi over Pac-Man

*quite certain, but there's an outside shot of an upset*
1) Solid Snake over Zelda
2) Master Chief over Donkey Kong
3) Tifa Lockheart over Luigi

*somewhat certain*
1) Squall over Knuckles
2) Ganondorf over Auron
3) Tidus over Kirby

*totally not confident*
1) Sora over Alucard
2) Ryu over Bowser
3) Dante over Vincent
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 28/31 points
Current Match Prediction: Revolver Ocelot vs. Pac-Man

Er, forgot to switch Dante and Vincent around. I'm certain about Vincent > Dante =p

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Ulti, I need some of your Round 2 stuff ASAP. Thanks.
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Ocelot vs. Pac-Man - Bracket: Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot (28/31)

From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/20/2005 1:43:38 AM | #153
*absolutely certain*
9. Dante over Vincent

OK then. I'd love that to be correct. Squall would then have an easier last 16 match, and I'd be all "vindication! one time!" about one of my riskier picks.
---
Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

Er, forgot to switch Dante and Vincent around. I'm certain about Vincent > Dante =p

Phew...

For a moment I thought you lost your sanity back there.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Seen correction now. My last 16 picks:

*confident*

Mario, Zero, Samus, Master Chief, Crono, Sonic, Mega Man, Yoshi

*confident enough*

Solid Snake, Bowser, Tifa

*fairly confident*

Ganondorf, Alucard, Tidus, Squall

*not confident*

Dante
---
Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

jealous much of people who guessed the late spring stats were BS right of the bat?

Can I laugh at you if Bowser beats the hell out of Ryu and Snake? Seriously.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

*absolutely certain*
1) Mario over Ness
2) Zero over Lloyd Irving
3) Samus over Frog
4) Crono over Tommy Vercetti
5) Sonic over Diablo
6) Mega Man over Leon Kennedy
7) Yoshi over Pac-Man
8) Vincent over Dante
9) Bowser over Ryu

*quite certain, but there's an outside shot of an upset*
1) Zelda over Solid Snake
2) Master Chief over Donkey Kong
3) Tifa Lockheart over Luigi
4) Ganondorf over Auron

*totally not confident*
1) Alucard over Sora
2) Tidus over Kirby
3) Squall over Knuckles


---
NOMINATE KEN MASTERS FOR SC2K5
http://img291.echo.cx/img291/3398/ken23rc.gif

And, well, I'll bite too.

Absolutely certain:

1. Mario over Ness
2. Crono over Vercetti
3. Samus over Frog
4. Zero over Lloyd
5. Megaman over Leon
6. Sonic over Diablo
7. Yoshi over Pac-Man
8. Tifa over Luigi
9. Vincent over Dante
10. Master Chief over DK

Quite certain:

11. Squall over Knuckles

Somewhat uncertain:

12. Bowser over Ryu

Totally not confident:

13. Snake over Zelda
14. Ganondorf over Auron
15. Sora over Alucard

I'm ****ed:

16. Tidus over Kirby
---
"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

I think I can say with a clear conscience that doing a No-Damage Perfect Statistics Big Boss MGS Speed Run without special items is a wee bit tougher than that elusive perfect Pac-Man score (not that I've done it = p). But they're both the same thing, just memorizing button presses. MGS just happens to not be as simple as Pac-Man.
---
"i started playing mario brothers as luigi and threw the controller down in disgust in the middle of the game because he lacked character"--gokujont

From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/19/2005 8:52:50 PM | #165
jealous much of people who guessed the late spring stats were BS right of the bat?

Can I laugh at you if Bowser beats the hell out of Ryu and Snake? Seriously.

~*ST*~

Beating the hell out, as in, 60%+? Go right ahead. Ryu's not looking in the best of shapes, but he's still going to give Bowser a match.
---
"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

I'll be laughing at everyone, even the people who agreed with me if Snake makes the Final Four. But you can laugh at me even if that does happen too. I deserve it. ;_;
---
"i started playing mario brothers as luigi and threw the controller down in disgust in the middle of the game because he lacked character"--gokujont

Ocelot's craptastic performance isn't making the Spring Contest stats look good.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 28/31 points
Current Match Prediction: Revolver Ocelot vs. Pac-Man

Can I laugh at you if Bowser beats Ryu and Snake? Seriously.

Hey, that reminds me...Did you archive all of my posts from when I tried to "correct" people for talking like Magus beating Squall was a given?
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Funny that Snake had never had such an easy path to the Final 4, and there are still two matches that he could **** up. Huzzah for being the suckiest elite around.
---
"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/20/2005 1:58:04 AM | #171
Ocelot's craptastic performance isn't making the Spring Contest stats look good.

What, the ones where he's within a percent of Kefka, who has been 51/49 with Pac-Man before? They look fine from my end.
---
Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

Absolutely certain:

1. Mario over Ness
2. Crono over Vercetti
3. Samus over Frog
4. Zero over Lloyd
5. Megaman over Leon
6. Sonic over Diablo
7. Yoshi over Pac-Man
8. Vincent over Dante

Somewhat uncertain:

9. Knux over Squall (well if I had Magus>Squall, then I guess I have Knux>Squall)
10. MC over DK
11. Bowser over Ryu
12. Ganondorf over Auron
13. Tidus over Kirby

Totally not confident:

14. Snake over Zelda
15. Sora over Alucard

What was I thinking, oh well, hope for the upset...:

16. Luigi over Tifa
---
Economic Left/Right: 7.50
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 0.26

Hey, that reminds me...Did you archive all of my posts from when I tried to "correct" people for talking like Magus beating Squall was a given?

You have every right to laugh at them for that, but you'll be better off waiting for Knux vs. Squall before you laugh at them.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Depends on whether you're willing to buy a slight underperformance against Scorpion, because I would pick Kefka over Scorpion myself. And I hope you remember how hardcore Scorpion beat Pac-Man.
---
"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

What, the ones where he's within a percent of Kefka, who has been 51/49 with Pac-Man before? They look fine from my end.

Pac-Man's over performing even if you take his 2k3 value. I knew Pac-Man had a chance for the upset, but not by this much.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 28/31 points
Current Match Prediction: Revolver Ocelot vs. Pac-Man

What, the ones where he's within a percent of Kefka, who has been 51/49 with Pac-Man before? They look fine from my end.

It actually makes Bowser look noticeably worse based on this.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

*absolutely certain*
1) Mario over Ness
2) Zero over Lloyd Irving
3) Samus over Frog
4) Master Chief over Donkey Kong
5) Crono over Tommy Vercetti
6) Vincent over Dante
7) Sonic over Diablo
8) Mega Man over Leon
9) Yoshi over Pac-Man

*quite certain, but there's an outside shot of an upset*
1) Tifa over Luigi

*somewhat certain*
1) Sora over Alucard
2) Tidus over Kirby
3) Bowser over Ryu

*totally not confident*
1) Ganondorf over Auron
2) Zelda over Snake
3) Squall over Knuckles
---
Summer Contest Score: 29/31
Today's Pick: Revolver Ocelot

Well it's not as if there's ONE way to extrapolate. Doing Sp2K5 through a constant Bowser makes everything fall into place for the most part. You just have Luigi's overperformance against Pac-Man in 2004.
---
"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise

Oh, and as long as you ignore Sephiroth... >_<
---
"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise

I have a feeling that Bowser/Ryu going Luigi/KOS-MOS style... not as large a gap mind you, but I can see Bowser taking it 55/45.
---
MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

*absolutely certain*
1) Mario over Ness
2) Zero over Lloyd Irving
3) Samus over Frog
4) Crono over Tommy Vercetti
5) Sonic over Diablo
6) Mega Man over Leon
7) Yoshi over Pac-Man

*quite certain, but there's an outside shot of an upset*
1) Tifa over Luigi
2) Vincent over Dante
3) Master Chief over Donkey Kong
4) Bowser over Ryu

*somewhat certain*
1) Squall over Knuckles

*totally not confident*
1) Ganondorf over Auron
2) Zelda over Snake
3) Sora over Alucard
4) Kirby over Tidus

---
I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?

55/45 is doable, it's not THAT big of an anomaly. I would honestly not be surprised, what with Nintendo boosting all over the damn place.
---
"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

How many people would have taken Pac Man > Ocelot if the seeding was reversed?
---
.nS) quote of the week:
"It was like a zealot rush without any zealots." - Aegis

Hey, that reminds me...Did you archive all of my posts from when I tried to "correct" people for talking like Magus beating Squall was a given?

I actually wound up only archiving like two or three posts combined. I said in my secret topic that I'd only archive the STUPID posts, of which there weren't that many.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Not me. I only somewhat paid attention to the seeding once, and my bracket ended up looking like a used tampon.
---
"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 8/20/2005 2:08:43 AM | #186
How many people would have taken Pac Man > Ocelot if the seeding was reversed?

I'd have thought more about it, but probably still have gone with Ocelot.
---
Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

I picked Ocelot because he performed better against Bowser than Pac did against Luigi. So seeding wouldn't have bothered me.
---
"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise

Shoddy logic if there ever was one. I was confident in an Ocelot win, and even I could've told you that.
---
"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

I can't imagine anyone voting for pac over Ocelot, so even if it's a 1/8 with pac being the 1 seed, I would go with Ocelot regardless.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

YOU'RE shoddy logic.
---
"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise

Only four people went with Pac in the BOP. I don't think the seeding would have mattered.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

How many people would have taken Pac Man > Ocelot if the seeding was reversed?

I would have probably thought real hard about it. I figured it would be closer than most people though. Pac-man's showing against Kefka really impressed me. I thought he could make Ocelot sweat in a similar fashion, as both Ocelot and Kefka are fan-favorites from popular games, but neither has mainsream or widespread popularity like Luigi does. I figured it would be 52/48 in Ocelot's favor at BEST!

With the seeds reversed, it would mean that Pac-Man must have gotten a LOT of support, and outside of the board as well! The past year has shown that nominations due have a major influence on seeding.

I stated last year that everything Pac-Man has going for him, Luigi does too. I never take the X-stats as is. I always factor in fluctuations in character performances based on who they are facing.
---
MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Absolutely certain:

1. Mario over Ness
2. Samus over Frog
3. Yoshi over Pac-Man
4. Crono over Zidane
5. Vincent over Dante
6. Sonic over Diablo
7. Mega Man over Leon
8. Zero over Lloyd

Mostly certain:

9. Tifa over Luigi
10. MC over Donkey Kong
11. Bowser over Ryu

Fairly certain...:

12. Ganondorf over Auron
13. Snake over Zelda

Not sure at all:

14. Knuckles over Squall?
15. Tidus over Kirby?
16. Alucard over Sora..?
---
Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.

Vincent winning his division and Crono/Mario being the finals, and MM beatin Sonic is pretty much the only way for me getting back in this thing now, thanks to damn Pacman, Knuckles, and Ness.
---
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.

Shoddy logic if there ever was one. I was confident in an Ocelot win, and even I could've told you that.

Shoddy? I don't know. The only thing that could destroy that logic is Luigi/Pac-Man SFF, and that's something that sounded weird before today.
---
I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?

4. Crono over That dude who beat Kefka*
---
Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.

Yeah. Excuse me for not thinking that Luigi got an extra THIRTEEN friggin percent that he wouldn't have gotten otherwise apparently due to "SFF"
---
"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise