*whine, whine, whine, x-stats, whine, sucks, whine, turnips, cheese, whine*

this anti-x-stat whining has been getting out of hand lately. when has anyone ever, EVER claimed the x-stats are precise. bleh.

i, for one, didn't even reference the x-stats for this match. it just seemed like a common sense chain of events. Luigi beat Pac-Man by more than Bowser beat Ocelot; and in turn, Yoshi beat Luigi and Bowser beat Yoshi. it seemes to me that the odds were heavily in favor of Ocelot. i guess i didn't put much stock in Pac-Man getting any kind of old-school SFF.

anyways, here's something i thought about for a bit:

list the Round 2 matches in the order of how confident you are of who will win:

*absolutely certain*

1. Mario over Ness
2. Crono over Vercetti
3. Yoshi over Pac-Man
4. Samus over Frog
5. Megaman over Leon
6. Sonic over Diablo
7. Zero over Lloyd

*quite certain, but there's an outside shot of an upset*

8. Tifa over Luigi
9. Vincent over Dante
10. Master Cheif over Donkey Kong
11. Sora over Alucard

*somewhat uncertain*

12. Squall over Knuckles
13. Bowser over Ryu

*totally not confident*

14. Solid Snake over Zelda
15. Auron over Ganondorf
16. Tidus over Kirby

---
"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."

And I still fail to see how going toe to toe with Mario for three straight years isn't impressive. Not just anybody can do that.
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

I knew someone would bring up uberLink. Crono is obviously stronger than Magus, don't get me wrong; I just think it's possible that he's overrated, just like Magus and Frog.

oh, I came up with a new reason to root for Samus to win: if she does, we base everything off Base Samus, or BS. every stat-hater will love that.
---
http://picturesofwalls.com

I wanna do it too. I didn't change the numbers because I'm lazy I guess.

*absolutely certain*

1. Mario over Ness
2. Crono over Vercetti
3. Yoshi over Pac-Man
4. Samus over Frog
5. Megaman over Leon
6. Sonic over Diablo
7. Zero over Lloyd

*quite certain, but there's an outside shot of an upset*

8. Tifa over Luigi
10. Master Chief over Donkey Kong
12. Squall over Knuckles
14. Solid Snake over Zelda

*somewhat uncertain*

9. Dante over Vincent
13. Ryu over Bowser
11. Alucard over Sora
15. Auron over Ganondorf

*totally not confident*

16. Tidus over Kirby
---
Raiden fact of the post: *absolutely certain* 17. Raiden over Link.

I'll bite:

*absolutely certain*

1. Mario over Ness
2. Crono over Vercetti
3. Yoshi over Pac-Man
4. Samus over Frog
5. Megaman over Leon
6. Sonic over Diablo
7. Zero over Lloyd

*quite certain, but there's an outside shot of an upset*

8. Tifa over Luigi
9. Master Chief over Donkey Kong
10. Sora over Alucard
11. Squall over Knuckles
12. Bowser over Ryu

*somewhat uncertain*

13. Vincent over Dante
14. Tidus over Kirby

*totally not confident*

15. Solid Snake over Zelda
16. Ganondorf over Auron
---
"i started playing mario brothers as luigi and threw the controller down in disgust in the middle of the game because he lacked character"--gokujont

of course going toe to toe with Mario is impressive. he's obviously noble nine material. I'm just not convinced that going toe to toe with Mario means he'll go toe to toe with Mega Man - you know, that whole transitive thing.
---
http://picturesofwalls.com

*absolutely certain*

1. Mario over Ness
2. Crono over Vercetti
3. Yoshi over Pac-Man
4. Samus over Frog
5. Megaman over Leon
6. Sonic over Diablo
7. Zero over Lloyd

*quite certain, but there's an outside shot of an upset*

8. Tifa over Luigi
9. Vincent over Dante
10. Master Cheif over Donkey Kong

*somewhat uncertain*

12. Squall over Knuckles
13. Bowser over Ryu
14. Solid Snake over Zelda
15. Ganondorf over Auron

*totally not confident*

11. Sora over Alucard
16. Tidus over Kirby

---
Speak of Galcian again in that tone and I shall cleave you in two
- Ramirez, Skies of Arcadia

*totally confident*

Magus over Squall
---
http://picturesofwalls.com

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

*absolutely certain*

1. Mario over Ness
2. Crono over Vercetti
3. Samus over Frog
4. Yoshi over Pac-Man
5. Megaman over Leon
6. Sonic over Diablo
7. Zero over Lloyd
8. Master Cheif over Donkey Kong

*quite certain, but there's an outside shot of an upset*

9. Tifa over Luigi
10. Vincent over Dante

*somewhat uncertain*

11. Ganondorf over Auron
12. Squall over Knuckles
13. Bowser over Ryu

*totally not confident*

14. Solid Snake over Zelda
15. Alucard over Sora
16. Tidus over Kirby

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Actually, I should have put Tifa > Luigi into absolutely certain. I would be more shocked to see her lose that than some of the other ones up there.
---
"i started playing mario brothers as luigi and threw the controller down in disgust in the middle of the game because he lacked character"--gokujont

So was Kerrigan/Vincent, but you seemed to have fun with that.

I got, from his statement, that he thought it might be close or having a potential upset there. That match wouldn't be remotely interesting at all.

it's funny how people are saying Crono is independent of Magus/Frog while saying that anything in FF7 could beat half the bracket. Crono's strength is based on matches with Mario, since that's all we've ever seen.

Perhaps you missed where Crono performed very well against a much stronger Link than in 2003. His ranking, as of late, isn't based entirely off of facing Mario. Yes, it's possible that he could have fallen since 2004, for whatever reason, but you're talking a huge downfall for no reason in order for Ganon to start making that upset even close to possible.

---
To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.

*absolutely certain*

1. Mario over Ness
2. Crono over Vercetti
3. Yoshi over Pac-Man
4. Samus over Frog
5. Megaman over Leon
6. Sonic over Diablo
7. Zero over Lloyd

*quite certain, but there's an outside shot of an upset*

8. Tifa over Luigi
9. Tidus over Kirby
10. Master Cheif over Donkey Kong
11. Ganondorf over Auron

*somewhat uncertain*
12. Vincent over Dante
13. Squall over Knuckles
14. Bowser over Ryu


*totally not confident*
15. Solid Snake over Zelda
16. Sora over Alucard

---
"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee

I just think it's possible that he's overrated, just like Magus and Frog.

How? There were obvious signs to those two being overrated, whereas there's nothing to say that about Crono.

---
To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.

*absolutely certain*

1. Mario over Ness
2. Crono over Vercetti
3. Samus over Frog
4. Yoshi over Pac-Man
5. Megaman over Leon
6. Zero over Lloyd
7. Sonic over Diablo

*quite certain, but there's an outside shot of an upset*

8. Vincent over Dante
9. Master Chief over Donkey Kong
10. Tifa over Luigi
11. Bowser over Ryu

*somewhat uncertain*

12. Solid Snake over Zelda
13. Kirby over Tidus
14. Ganondorf over Auron
15. Alucard over Sora

*totally not confident*

16. Knuckles over Squall (well, I had Magus > Squall, so I'm hoping that Knuckles wins)

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness

I don't see what Mega Man's got that Mario doesn't. If the Blue Bomber were to actually beat Crono, it'd be by the skin of his teeth. Yes, results are not transitive, but Crono is more than capable of beating him. He's not overrated. Just because Magus and Frog turned out to be doesn't automatically mean we should question Crono.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

I think Ganon-Crono could be a fun match.

I never said Ganon would win, just that it would be closer than numbers would project.
---
http://picturesofwalls.com

And why are we talking about Ganon vs. Crono out of the blue?

They're on the opposite half of the bracket and Ganon will never go past Samus/Mario.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

I never said Ganon would win, just that it would be closer than numbers would project.

Crono would still win by at least 55% there. What's so fun about that?
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

I've mentioned this before, and I know it has no chance of realistically happening, but how bad do you think it would be for the contest if the Final Four looked like this:

Ganondorf
Zelda

Vincent
Tifa

I know it's cliche to say, but I don't think I'd be too interested in these contests anymore.
---
"i started playing mario brothers as luigi and threw the controller down in disgust in the middle of the game because he lacked character"--gokujont

I never said Ganon would win, just that it would be closer than numbers would project.

So, what are we talking? A couple of percentage points? Instead of 56% he gets 54%? There's nothing "fun" about that match, really. Certainly nothing that would cause uproar. Hell, I find it likely that Crono would do better than that, if even by a little.

---
To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.

I'd vote Mega Man > Crono > Mario, for whatever it's worth. of course, I'd vote just about anything over Mario.

---
http://picturesofwalls.com

the only way I could see ganon/crono being interesting would be to look and laugh at everyone who trys to make a case for ganon
---
"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee

I could honestly see this being the final four, given the way this contest has gone so far:

Mario
Zelda

Vincent
Tifa

Of course, if that did happen, I think it's pretty much a given that a favorites bracket would be winning this contest.

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness

Heh, I seriously wouldn't mind seeing Vincent vs. Tifa in the final 4.

My bracket is done for since Knux > Magus.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Who would people pick in a Vincent vs. Tifa match? I honestly have no idea, although if I had to pick one I'd probably say Tifa.

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness

Vincent/Tifa would only be good in the sense that the arguing over Tifa > Vincent or Vincent > Tifa would end.

I'd laugh if the TOC was like this:

Cloud
Link

Seph
Ganon

---
http://picturesofwalls.com

I can't see the SFF going to anyone except Vincent in any FF7 matchup that doesn't involve Cloud or Sephiroth. Tifa, Aeris, Barret, Red XIII, doesn't matter...I'm thinking Vincent would take it all.
---
"i started playing mario brothers as luigi and threw the controller down in disgust in the middle of the game because he lacked character"--gokujont

I've mentioned this before, and I know it has no chance of realistically happening, but how bad do you think it would be for the contest if the Final Four looked like this:

Ganondorf
Zelda

Vincent
Tifa

I know it's cliche to say, but I don't think I'd be too interested in these contests anymore.

i can't even see Ganondorf getting past both Samus AND Mario as a realistic possibility. however you could still have:

Mario
Zelda
Vincent
Tifa

that would be one messed up Final Four.

---
"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."

I would hate vincent and tifa being in the final four for several reasons. Mainly i dislike both of them as characters and I would hate to see the massive fanboy uprising on the board that would inevitably follow.
---
"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee

Who would people pick in a Vincent vs. Tifa match? I honestly have no idea, although if I had to pick one I'd probably say Tifa.

Well, my preference goes Tifa > Vincent, so I'll go with Tifa on that one.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Who would people pick in a Vincent vs. Tifa match? I honestly have no idea, although if I had to pick one I'd probably say Tifa.

i've agreed from Day 1 that the FF7 chain will go:

Cloud > Sephiroth > Vincent > Tifa > Aeris

and i currently still stand by that.

---
"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."

I would love to see Tifa and Vincent make the final four, myself.

And I have always believed the chain to go: Cloud > Sephiroth > Vincent > Tifa > Aeris

---
To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.

I'd pick Tifa.
---
Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

A somewhat realistic final 4 might look like this:

Samus
Zelda

Crono
Tifa

And in which case Crono will be TEH PIMP!1!1!

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

In any case, if they don't get to do it this year, or even if they do go at it and Tifa wins this year, as long as it's not by a lot I'd still put Vincent down for future matches if Dirge of Cerberus does well.
---
"i started playing mario brothers as luigi and threw the controller down in disgust in the middle of the game because he lacked character"--gokujont

A VERY realistic Final 4 looks like this:

Mario
Bowser

Crono
Sonic
---
"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

Yes, a mute pimp.
---
"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus

My turn

*absolutely certain*

1. Mario over Ness
2. Crono over Vercetti
3. Samus over Frog
4. Yoshi over Pac-Man
5. Megaman over Leon
6. Zero over Lloyd
7. Sonic over Diablo
8. Master Chief over Donkey Kong

*quite certain, but there's an outside shot of an upset*

9. Tifa over Luigi
10. Solid Snake over Zelda
11. Tidus over Kirby
12. Ganondorf over Auron
13. Alucard over Sora

*somewhat uncertain*

14. Dante over Vincent
15. Ryu over Bowser
16. Squall over Knuckles

*totally not confident*

Hey I've convinced myself and I'm not backing down
---
I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.

The way the Final Four will look:

Samus
Snake

Crono
Megaman
---
Speak of Galcian again in that tone and I shall cleave you in two
- Ramirez, Skies of Arcadia

Sonic beating Tifa/Mega Man and Bowser beating Zelda/Snake? I find both of those to be improbable.
---
"i started playing mario brothers as luigi and threw the controller down in disgust in the middle of the game because he lacked character"--gokujont

Adept, I wouldn't call Mario > Samus VERY realistic.

Hell, it's almost unrealistic even.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Oh, yeah, didn't even touch on the Mario > Samus. = P
---
"i started playing mario brothers as luigi and threw the controller down in disgust in the middle of the game because he lacked character"--gokujont

Wait -- what picture is Pac-Man going to get next round? Methinks his sprite would have been by far the strongest pic he could get.

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness

Probably his Face Pic from Pac-Man World 2
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man

From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/19/2005 12:31:36 PM | Message Detail | #300
Ulti, that act wasn't funny the first time, it wasn't funny the 50th time, and it won't be funny the 765th time.

Funny how you accuse me of acting without any evidence at all. The stats are off, their fanboys are annoying, and the stats will fail again next year after everyone refuses to learn their lesson and clings to them like a crutch. Whenever the stats are good, all is peachy. Whenever they are off, people come up with every factor and adjustment in the book outside of the most obvious factor of all to try and keep the stats looking perfect.

The same voter pool is not voting in every match. That's all there really is to it. Characters and their voters are not bound by arbitrary percentage and robotic voting patterns. Can the stats be used as a very general guideline? Of course they can. But before this contest, Guy was the only one who even bothered looking outside the box and suggest that Pac Man could win. It's funny how everyone has seemingly jumped on the "Oh, this was hidden in the stats the entire time" bandwagon after Ocelot got his ass whipped. And without even reading these topics in full, I can almost bet that everyone has now lost faith in Bowser. Because after all, every character is tied down to arbitrary, layered percentages and the voters forced to vote like robots in the matches.

Of course, once a surprising match starts, the upsets will have been obvious from the start! I mean, we all should have seen Pac Man's upset coming from a mile away! It was sooo obvious now that we have hindsight to view the stats with!

This is the happiest I've been about a loss since Ness beat the hell out of CJ, and since I've beaten EarthBound I'm happy as a pig in dog poo about that one. Ness kicks ass.

Vive le Pac! Regardless of how serious you take the stats, how can you not love Pac Man pulling off an upset after what he's been through? He was left for dead after 2002.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

You know, from this match alone, I feel the need to nominate and vote for Pac-Man for the rest of my time here.

---
To the man whose spirit was so free it was bothersome... Kurosaki Ichigo, my sword has been broken by your freedom of spirit.

From: Phediuk | Posted: 8/19/2005 7:49:59 PM | Message Detail | #098
This is an awesome upset. I don't mind losing a point for this at all.

Same here.

Sir Bormun: You mentioned something about coming up with a better formula. Aprosenf came up with the brilliant idea of using Least Squares Regression. I think taking the standard stats, then adding in the LSG formula and giving the characters ranges would be as accurate as we could possibly get. On paper, at least. No stats can effort account for all of the factors.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

And while we're on the subject of SFF: Mega Man vs. Zero last year. Everything we've seen in other matches points to the fact that Zero should have gotten SFFed. Why didn't he? Or if he did, just how good is he?

Zero is an oddball. I think Mega SFFd him, but not by much. There is usually very minimal SFF between characters very close in strength. Link/Samus is a good example of that. There was SFF in that match, but not a terribly large amount.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Urgh, even without the X-stats, I won't pick pac to win over Ocelot.

I HATE him with a passion, he shouts lame to me.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.