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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 209
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/19/2005 9:28:05 AM | Message Detail
WAKKA WAKKA WAKKA WAKKA WAKKA


(lol, x-stats)



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Spring 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/27

All Time Extrapolated Standings:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/alltimexsts.htm



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251



!yawA tsoP
From: jonthomson | Posted: 8/19/2005 9:28:46 AM | Message Detail
Pac-Man>Yoshi
---
Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 8/19/2005 9:29:28 AM | Message Detail
Tidus > Pac-Man > Wakka
---
For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/19/2005 2:10:24 PM | Message Detail
Yeah X-Stats, you are so awesome...



FOR ME TO POOP ON!

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 29/31
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/19/2005 2:13:30 PM | Message Detail
*hates on the stats because I am cool*
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/19/2005 2:14:14 PM | Message Detail
This match shouldn't be blamed on the x-stats, as it predicts it to be close, at least.
---
"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus
From: the7joker7 | Posted: 8/19/2005 2:15:07 PM | Message Detail
-_-

just -_-
---
Go Seahawks!
Playing: Secret of Mana, Final Fantasy VII, Knights of the Old Republic
From: BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted: 8/19/2005 2:19:32 PM | Message Detail
This is why X-Stats aren't the do-all-end-all of the contest. The only thing you can predict a battle with is a past fight with those two characters. Just because Ocelot beats someone Pac Man lost to, doesn't mean that he>Pac Man. It is good as a guideline but it will never be even close to 90% accurate.
---
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Micheal Flatley and Hellboy"-trancer1 Officially out of the running SC2k5(Magus..)
From: Gooper Blooper | Posted: 8/19/2005 2:19:36 PM | Message Detail
lol internet
---
Chun-Li > Bowser book it - lol_internet
Vote for Kirby in SC2K5!
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 8/19/2005 2:19:42 PM | Message Detail
Knux > Pac-Man
---
"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: swirldude | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:22:29 PM | Message Detail
That 500 post reminded me of the days when the 500th post sucked ass.
---
Knuckles the Echidna's road to the Sc2k5 Title!
Round 2: (2)Squall Leonhart
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:23:17 PM | Message Detail
Wow a plain 500 post.
---
"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus
From: Villainous Fawful | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:23:29 PM | Message Detail
Okay, so the stats have predicted two whole matches correctly (MM/conker and Yoshi/Laharl). HAIL THE STATS!


---
I HAVE FURY!
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:23:50 PM | Message Detail
I'm actually seeing a lot more people that usually aren't on the board for this match. While this doesn't seem to be a big casual draw, I think it's a bigger board draw than some would think.
---
"i started playing mario brothers as luigi and threw the controller down in disgust in the middle of the game because he lacked character"--gokujont
From: swirldude | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:25:29 PM | Message Detail
For every X-Stat fanboy, there are two anti X-Stat fanboys?
---
Knuckles the Echidna's road to the Sc2k5 Title!
Round 2: (2)Squall Leonhart
From: Garsha | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:26:56 PM | Message Detail
Has Slowflake given that Winners/Losers award yet?
---
Look at my Winter Contest 2K4/2K5 Analysis Fanfic: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579546
End of message. ~ Garsha
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:27:13 PM | Message Detail
Again, we didn't see this X-Stats complaining last year, because the bracket was painfully easy to predict. Even in the Spring the biggest upset was freaking Diablo, and he's a friggin' midcarder.
---
"i started playing mario brothers as luigi and threw the controller down in disgust in the middle of the game because he lacked character"--gokujont
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:27:14 PM | Message Detail
Yes, he has, try and search for it.
---
"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus
From: swirldude | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:27:46 PM | Message Detail
I didn't see it...
---
Knuckles the Echidna's road to the Sc2k5 Title!
Round 2: (2)Squall Leonhart
From: Yesmar | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:28:07 PM | Message Detail
I had Ocelot in my bracket, but I am absolutely loving this match. Pac-Man never gets any respect in these contests, and I'm glad he's showing he actually has some (little) power.
---
"I don't like it when people I don't like get what they want."--Janelle
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:28:31 PM | Message Detail
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=22978494
---
"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus
From: transience | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:28:38 PM | Message Detail
people's understanding of x-stats have come a long way, too. it's like they've been disappointed that the numbers aren't 100% perfect and decided to rage against them.
---
http://picturesofwalls.com
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:29:23 PM | Message Detail
Right, and that's when the x-stats are best-used: when matches aren't really in question. People relied on them last year and got some success, so they try again...and gettin' burnt occurs. That goes for me, too.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: jonthomson | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:30:29 PM | Message Detail
From: Garsha | Posted: 8/19/2005 11:26:56 PM | #016
Has Slowflake given that Winners/Losers award yet?

Yeah, he did. Had something like Tifa as winner of the round for some reason.
---
Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:34:09 PM | Message Detail
The x-stats only fail when you look at them as perfect.
---
"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:34:21 PM | Message Detail
The last half of that last topic was full of complete B.S. with people *****ing about the stats and arbitrarily declaring certain things as being right or wrong.

If you're using the stats FIRST to determine your picks, then you've already messed up. The stats were supposed to be used as a guideline if anything. Any bother to try to factor in other things should be left to the individual bracket maker anyways.

Villanious Fawful, you've done nothing but ***** about the stats and declare what YOU think is right or wrong. Unless your name is at the top of the leaderboard, your opinion is no more valid than anyone else in this topic.
---
MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:37:21 PM | Message Detail
I'm really gettin tired of this.

All of you who think the x-stats are completely awful and should be gotten rid of... show me something better.
---
I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:39:53 PM | Message Detail
Hey, I may be a worthless complainer, but the few things I cited weren't arbitrary. Beating Ganondorf and scoring 35% on Base Link is a lot to swallow for year-to-year variation. Zelda and Vivi were nearly equal in the stats. So were Luigi and KOS-MOS. And Mithos > Lloyd would defy every single hero/villain relationship we've ever seen when the game didn't have an ensemble cast.

And hell, with the exception of Magus/Knuckles, I got all those matches *right*, and I had Magus losing to Squall. It's not the outcome that's infuriating people today. It's the percentages.
---
"i started playing mario brothers as luigi and threw the controller down in disgust in the middle of the game because he lacked character"--gokujont
From: kungfu chicken | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:40:50 PM | Message Detail
you know what surprised me most about this match so far? the fact that ocelot fanboys are louder and more pissy than sc, nintendo or final fantasy fanboys. I never would have thought that.
---
*pacing back in forth waiting for: advance wars ds, twilight princess, ffxii, kingdom hearts 2, castlevania dos*
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:41:36 PM | Message Detail
Was posted in the last topic

Ness/C.J. - C.J. weaker than Jak? I don't think so.
You have no proof

Zero/Ryu H. - Stats were off
People are saying pic factor, unadjusted 20XX also predicts this to happen

Lloyd/Wesker - Stats were WAY off. Lloyd weaker than Mithos?
Like I said in my analysis Lloyd isn't too far away from Mithos

Riku/Frog - Riku gets 47% on Snake?
Frog 4-pack seems overrated last year

Ganon/Yuna - Stats were off
Final Fantasy X2

Vivi/Zelda - The stats WAY off again
I can't explain this one

Dream division is N/A, although Rikku is on par with Dante? I doubt it.
Again you have no proof because she's a new character

Master Chief/CATS - Stats were off
Frog's 4-pack + face CATS

D.K./Sam - Off
Not by that much

Tommy/Kefka - Off
Vercetti may have dropped (doubt it)

Magus/Knux - WAY off
Sam Fisher, Tidus and Luca all showed that it's true the only one that doesn't was Ganondorf

Tifa/Vyse - OFF. Tifa is NOT beating Samus.
True

Luigi/KOS-MOS - WAY OFF. AGAIN. WHAT WILL IT TAKE FOR YOU IDIOTS TO SEE THEY ARE FAILING BIG TIME?
Luigi also overperformed against Pac-Man.

Gordon/Leon - Way off. Leon is stronger than Jill
You can't assume

Yoshi/Laharl - Off
Yes, but after Vyse's and Luigi's performances it was expected

Today - Off
Pac-Man was underrated in 2k4 plus the Sp2k5 stats may be worng.
---
I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:41:51 PM | Message Detail
I do agree, however, that endorsing getting *rid* of the X-Stats is just plain stupid. Even if they were off in every single match, you don't have to use them. Just ignore it and let other people do what they want. If you're so sure that they're wrong, it only gives you a better chance at winning.
---
"i started playing mario brothers as luigi and threw the controller down in disgust in the middle of the game because he lacked character"--gokujont
From: chronicfreeze | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:42:13 PM | Message Detail
I'm not pissy, I am literally shocked and appalled that people who know both characters could vote for Pac-Man. PAC-MAN! I would vote for the dog from Duck Hunt over ****ing Pac-Man.
---
"Where is Barret?" (In the Summer Contest) - Karma Hunter
"At KFC." - KillTheBuffalo
From: Garsha | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:43:18 PM | Message Detail
Thanks for the Link.
---
Look at my Winter Contest 2K4/2K5 Analysis Fanfic: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579546
End of message. ~ Garsha
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:44:28 PM | Message Detail
Riku gets 47% on Snake?

Better believe it. If Zelda fails (doubtful), Sora will finish him off.
---
I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:44:46 PM | Message Detail
But it's not like they've ever been perfect before. Brackets can't be completely based off of them and win... there are some matches where you just have to work off of hunches. The trick is figuring out which matches those are.

The stats are more what you'd call "guidelines" than actual rules.
---
I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:44:57 PM | Message Detail
I'm not pissy, I am literally shocked and appalled that people who know both characters could vote for Pac-Man. PAC-MAN! I would vote for the dog from Duck Hunt over ****ing Pac-Man.

Who said that most Pac-Man voters knew Ocelot?
---
I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:45:54 PM | Message Detail
I still believe that Snake/Zelda won't be close and that Snake will banninate Zelda with over 55% of the vote.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 28/31 points
Current Match Prediction: Revolver Ocelot vs. Pac-Man
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:47:28 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, it's obvious that they haven't been perfect--but usually people understood that in the topic, and were able to account for things like SFF and such in predicting the easy-to-call 2004 matches. You didn't see a lot of complaining there, because there were really no surprises other than freaking Sora, of all people.

People don't usually fret about something stupid like Hayabusa overperforming on Zero, because it doesn't matter and it can be chalked up to a number of reasons. But when **** like Magus/Knux goes down, people will start to lash out and try to bring down the stats any way they can. It's a matter of selectiveness.
---
"i started playing mario brothers as luigi and threw the controller down in disgust in the middle of the game because he lacked character"--gokujont
From: transience | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:59:01 PM | Message Detail
hm. I'm bored, so here are how I rank the characters left in order of strength:

1. Samus
2. Mario
3. Crono
4. Mega Man
5. Sonic
6. Tifa
7. Snake
8. Ganon
9. Bowser
10. Zero
11. Zelda
12. Vincent
13. Squall
14. Ryu
15. Dante
16. Kirby
17. Auron
18. Tidus
19. Yoshi
20. Luigi
21. MC
22. Sora
23. DK
24. Alucard
25. Knuckles
26. Ness
27. Diablo
28. Frog
29. Pac-Man
30. TV
31. Leon
32. Lloyd

---
http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/19/2005 3:59:51 PM | Message Detail
You'd take Pac Man over Vercetti??
---
"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: swirldude | Posted: 8/19/2005 4:00:07 PM | Message Detail
I expect the 5 characters you ranked below Snake to be ahead of him. Especially Zelda. You'll see soon.
---
Knuckles the Echidna's road to the Sc2k5 Title!
Round 2: (2)Squall Leonhart
From: swirldude | Posted: 8/19/2005 4:00:31 PM | Message Detail
And you'd take Pac-Man over Vercetti?!?!?
---
Knuckles the Echidna's road to the Sc2k5 Title!
Round 2: (2)Squall Leonhart
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 8/19/2005 4:00:36 PM | Message Detail
Why is Sora so low? He's stronger than about 6 people above him.
---
I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/19/2005 4:01:26 PM | Message Detail
When has DK ever shown to be stronger than Alucard or Knuckles?
From: transience | Posted: 8/19/2005 4:01:26 PM | Message Detail
I'd take a lot of people over Vercetti.

as for Sora? I'm just not convinced.
---
http://picturesofwalls.com
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/19/2005 4:07:22 PM | Message Detail
Looks like the X-stats are way off again, this has been happening waaay to often this year.

Considering how reliable the X-stats were last year, this year has been quite a surprise for me.

Oh well, it's not like I'd be able to predict most matches without it anyway.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 8/19/2005 4:07:44 PM | Message Detail
Looks like Advent Children is still going to be released on September 14th in the USA, despite earlier rumors that I saw in this topic.

http://www.gamespot.com/news/2005/08/19/news_6131564.html

---
.nS) quote of the week:
"It was like a zealot rush without any zealots." - Aegis
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/19/2005 4:09:18 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, I thought that was odd, all that AC delay talk when I hadn't heard a thing myself.
---
"i started playing mario brothers as luigi and threw the controller down in disgust in the middle of the game because he lacked character"--gokujont
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/19/2005 4:09:28 PM | Message Detail
Here is a better top 32
1. Samus
2. Crono
3. Mario
4. Tifa
5. Vincent
6. Mega Man
7. Sonic
8. Ganon
9. Bowser
10. Auron
11. Squall
12. Zelda
13. Snake
14. Zero
15. Ryu
16. Kirby
17. Yoshi
18. Sora
19. Alucard
20. Dante
21. Luigi
22. Tidus
23. Knuxkles
24. MC
25. Frog
26. Ness
27. Diablo
28. TV
29. DK
30. Pac-Man
31. Leon
32. Lloyd
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/19/2005 4:11:35 PM | Message Detail
I think the only reason that people thought it might be delayed is that the American site took down the countdown.
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
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