I'd take Wily over Nemesis, too, but it's certainly not set in stone. An upset there would be more than viable.

It would actually be an extremely interesting match -- we could see which Ocelot version is stronger, and by how much.
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 29/31. Today: Ocelot, tomorrow: Mario

I always found it strange (and I've commented on this several times before) that most people were so willing to accept the large disparity between Pac-Man and Kefka after one year. Ulti was the one who suggested the "20XX Factor" (and now he belittles it constantly, by the way) because Ryu > Snake didn't look right. After all, Snake just beat him with 57% last year.

And then we see Kefka expected to net over 60% on Pac-Man a year later, and nobody says a word. It's very puzzling indeed. This is one of the least shocking "upsets" ever, in my opinion.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

It's not very shocking indeed, certainly not after seeing the match pic.

But just from the data of the villain contest, Ocelot was supposed to beat Pac-Man.
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 29/31. Today: Ocelot, tomorrow: Mario

And to think some people thought Yoshi/Ocelot was going to be close -_-
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Currently: 28/30 | Next: Yoshi

Who were those people?
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Knuckles the Echidna's road to the Sc2k5 Title!
Round 2: (2)Squall Leonhart

*Raises hand*
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~

Oh people a question.Was ever a 1 seed losing to seed 8,or 2 seed losing to seed 7?Just curious.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~

And since you aren't a stat reg, that proves me right. The Stats Topic never gave Ocey a chance against Yoshi.
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Knuckles the Echidna's road to the Sc2k5 Title!
Round 2: (2)Squall Leonhart

Starcraft.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

Hopefully in an insane asylum.

And the stats shouldn't be blamed for this one. Hell, there are even more clues here than there were with Magus/Knuckles.
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Ocelot vs. Pac-Man - Bracket: Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot (28/31)

Based on 2003 Pac-Man, Ocelot currently falls at 21.72% on Link, about 2% lower than his Spring Contest value and barely above Dr. Wily's value.

Indirectly, Bowser stands at 31.94% on Link, nearly 3% lower than his Sp2K5 value and nearly 1% above his 2003 value. Ryu would now be projected to win with 51.26% based on this value.

This is all just FYI and guestimation, of course. I'm going to have to put this disclaimer on every post relating to the stats so I don't get accused of relying too heavily on them, as that is the chic thing to do.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Starcraft what?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~

Starcraft (16 seed) beating Halo (1 seed). In terms of seeding and in terms of brackets predicting it, it was the biggest upset ever.
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"i started playing mario brothers as luigi and threw the controller down in disgust in the middle of the game because he lacked character"--gokujont

Wow.Starcraft did that?Amazing!
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~

This is all just FYI and guestimation, of course. I'm going to have to put this disclaimer on every post relating to the stats so I don't get accused of relying too heavily on them, as that is the chic thing to do.

this is funny because it's true.

you know, had I thought about Nemesis/Ocelot, I would have picked Pac-Man in a second. Bowser and Wily stuck out in my mind, though.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

Actually I found out where exactly every #1 seed lost in every contest. The results are quite interesting.

1st Round: 1
2nd Round: 0
3rd Round/Quarterfinals for 32: 4
Quarterfinals/Semis for 32: 4
Semis/Finals for 32: 2
Finals: 5
Champs: 4

Haha Halo.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man

Wow.Starcraft did that?Amazing!

Yup. Not only that, it went on to beat Kingdom Hearts, Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker, and come close to beating Super Smash Brothers: Melee. It ended up placing in the stats as one of the top ten games.
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"i started playing mario brothers as luigi and threw the controller down in disgust in the middle of the game because he lacked character"--gokujont

There should be asterisk beside the comment coming close to beating SSB:M. Because CJay just decided not to take away the cheat votes.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man

Holy Crap. I just got here, this is crazy...
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Squall vs. Magus - 8.31.05

There should be asterisk beside the comment coming close to beating SSB:M. Because CJay just decided not to take away the cheat votes.

Even if you take off 3000 votes, which is more than the number of cheated votes, it hardly affects the percentage. >_>

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<_<

From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted: 8/19/2005 9:39:04 PM | #407
Oh people a question.Was ever a 1 seed losing to seed 8,or 2 seed losing to seed 7?Just curious.

The bandicoot, Kuja and sadly Ridley.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

Well the match becomes a 52-48 affair.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man

This one could still get interesting, seeing how the match has been 50/50 for a while now. It's not too late for Ocelot to start making a comeback either.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

I'm not surprised at all. But it's not over yet. Ocelot can make the comeback.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 28/31 points
Current Match Prediction: Revolver Ocelot vs. Pac-Man

At 13:55, this match has 60,423 votes

Lloyd/Wesker - 58120
Snake/Manny - 62106
Sonic/Jin - 61667

Abysmal vote totals. This match isn't even looking to reach 90K.

BTW, Ocelot/Wily had the 3rd worst vote totals in the Sp2K5 with 65K+. It only beat out Vergil/Ghaleon (61K+) and Wesker/Luca (63K+).
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Ocelot vs. Pac-Man - Bracket: Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot (28/31)

50/50, yeah. but there's a 1500 vote lead. Ocelot needs to start cutting at the lead and fast if he wants a chance.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

True, and that isn't a massive change. It's just slightly over one percentage point, and it is less if you take off the actual number of votes that were cheated.

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<_<

I'm not really surprised that the totals are so low. Pac-Man's 2003 and 2004 matches were near the very bottom in vote totals for their respective contests.

Pac-Man's lead has been stuck in the 1500 range for the last hour and a half. Ocelot can't make a decisive push right now, and I don't think he will later.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Young Ocelot got about as much on Wily as old Ocelot got on Nemesis.
I'd wager Wily >>>>>>> Nemesis.

Young Ocelot may be more popular than old Ocelot, but the picture he got against Wily looked utterly hideous. It's hard to imagine it helped him very much, if at all.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano for SC2k6

...What was wrong with it? That's pretty much what he looks like, and it's better than what he's got now.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Yeah, that's what I was thinking...that's what he looks like. Wily may have had a wee bit of a disadvantage, though.
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"i started playing mario brothers as luigi and threw the controller down in disgust in the middle of the game because he lacked character"--gokujont

From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/19/2005 9:58:56 PM | #425
At 13:55, this match has 60,423 votes

Lloyd/Wesker - 58120
Snake/Manny - 62106
Sonic/Jin - 61667

Abysmal vote totals.

What I want to do at some point is shove all the data from the live updater into a spreadsheet and see when each character has got a certain percentage of their votes, and as an average as well. I shoved Ness/CJ into Excel for a laugh, and noticed a few mildly interesting trends. Like, for example, that by the time we'd reached halfway timewise, 56% of all the votes had been cast, and over three quarters of all the votes had been cast by the time we were 16 hours in. Which has somewhat of an effect if someone's trying to make a comeback early (say Ocelot started to comeback now). You can say he needs x votes per update, but the next four hours are expected to get as many votes as the last six. Much better to say he needs a given percentage of the number of votes we expect to still come in.

Big wall of text to say that the number of votes cast isn't constant right there.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

can say he needs x votes per update, but the next four hours are expected to get as many votes as the last six

Well, you can say that a certain character needs to take off a certain amount of votes from the lead per update, and it works all the same. The number of updates remaining doesn't change.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Anyone think Yoshi will do way better than Luigi did on Pac-Man?
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus

Way better? I doubt it. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he did worse.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

I would expect a very similar result.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/19/2005 10:13:00 PM | #433
can say he needs x votes per update, but the next four hours are expected to get as many votes as the last six

Well, you can say that a certain character needs to take off a certain amount of votes from the lead per update, and it works all the same. The number of updates remaining doesn't change.

If they need to gain 50 votes an update, it's a lot easier if there's 400 votes per update than 300. That's my point.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

But by trying to do it based on percentage, it's still an absolute guess because we don't know how many more votes will be cast. At least doing it based on remaining updates, we have a solid number.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

What I want to do at some point is shove all the data from the live updater into a spreadsheet and see when each character has got a certain percentage of their votes, and as an average as well.

Way ahead of you.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.

...What was wrong with it? That's pretty much what he looks like, and it's better than what he's got now.

He's in a really weird position, and his body blends into the black background even more than than in the current picture. All that's really noticeable is his tiny head which looks really out of place in Metal Man stage, and is too small to show any features.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Nominate Jay Solano for SC2k6

RPGuy96 made a spreadsheet for me where you can copy and paste the tables in and get 15 minute updates...

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<_<

BTW, Ocelot/Wily had the 3rd worst vote totals in the Sp2K5 with 65K+. It only beat out Vergil/Ghaleon (61K+) and Wesker/Luca (63K+).

Minor correction, but Luca/Wesker got 61K+ while Vergil/Ghaleon got 63K+ (almost 64K).
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Yeah, this one's over. Pac-Man's been owning the day vote.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 28/31 points
Current Match Prediction: Revolver Ocelot vs. Pac-Man

You people need to start judging a character's strength based off their wins, not their losses. If you had done the former (Ocelot struggled with ****ing NEMESIS) this should have been easy to call.

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I HAVE FURY!

BTW, Ocelot/Wily had the 3rd worst vote totals in the Sp2K5 with 65K+. It only beat out Vergil/Ghaleon (61K+) and Wesker/Luca (63K+).

Minor correction, but Luca/Wesker got 61K+ while Vergil/Ghaleon got 63K+ (almost 64K).

Ah, thanks. I had already closed out the window before I typed it, so it figures that I switched them up.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Ocelot vs. Pac-Man - Bracket: Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot (28/31)

Getting doubled by Luigi isn't exactly impressive either.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Ive decided to give my Top 10 Winners and Losers. No real descriptions, I dont want to take any thunder away from the true list. Just my thoughts.

Winners:
10. Mario/Bowser
9. Riku
8. Dante
7. Ness
6. Rikku
5. Luigi
4. Tifa
3. Pac-Man
2. Zelda
1. Knuckles

Losers:
10. Tidus/Sonic
9. Zero
7/8: Alucard/Sora
6. CJ
5. Leon Kennedy
4. Llyod Irving
3. Frog
2. Master Cheif
1. Magus
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Gordon Freeman; 2. Mega Man

This match is a close one, so no one should be making the claim that it was an "easy call" either way.
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.nS) quote of the week:
"It was like a zealot rush without any zealots." - Aegis

This match is incredibly easy to buy, too. Ocelot's stats are dependent on Bowser being as crazily strong as he showed himself to be in the spring, too... so I completely agree with Leon about it being silly to bash the stats regarding this. Getting caught off guard by Pac-Man was completely our mistake... cause just like with Knux, the evidence was there.

Crafty ol' CJayC. Wonder if he saw these two surprises coming?

And I'm not sure if Young Ocelot is stronger. Old Ocelot may be less popular, but the thing is, he's also more well known, cause MGS3 was unpopular. I wonder if that's because it was a prequel?
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?

From: Mumei | Posted: 8/19/2005 10:23:36 PM | #441
RPGuy96 made a spreadsheet for me where you can copy and paste the tables in and get 15 minute updates...

I tried C&Ping but it went wrong somehow. My Excel didn't like the format.

From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/19/2005 10:15:55 PM | #438
But by trying to do it based on percentage, it's still an absolute guess because we don't know how many more votes will be cast.

There's some fluctuation, yes, but we know whether it's going to be <90K, >100K etc. It'll vary but not by a great deal, say more than about 2000 votes, and the expected fluctuation will go down as we get closer to the end.

If (still using data from 14:20) this match is on the low side (about 88K), Ocelot needs 53.21%. If it's on the high side (about 90K), Ocelot needs 52.97%. Per update, that's only a swing of a couple of votes, so we've got a very good idea of what's needed, even allowing for a large margin of error.

Let's say Ocelot needed 55% for the sake of round numbers. Let's also assume he's got 30,000 votes left to play with (also for the sake of round numbers), and ten hours (round numbers). That'd be 250 votes a (five minute) update, and the gap is 3000. So about 25 votes a go then?

But let's assume that 15,000 of those votes will go in the space of four hours. If he's getting 25 votes an update, the gap will be down to 1800. But now he needs 56% of the vote. Still 25 an update, yes, but it's a bit more of an ask, especially seeing how in those four hours he was only getting 54% of the vote. By going along at "what's required", he'll now need to up the percentage 2%, seemingly out of nowhere.

Too many figures, but it should be clear enough.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN