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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 206
From: meche313 | Posted: 8/17/2005 2:10:50 PM | Message Detail
I have Yoshi in the Oracle with 78%. So you got the idea.
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That's right. Cloud N. Candy would get a NEGATIVE percentage, and RPGuy's extrapolated calculator would crash. - therealmnm
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/17/2005 2:12:05 PM | Message Detail
I'm thinking Leon could muster up 30% on Mega.

And Yoshi should definitely be able to triple Laharl. Quadding him is also possible. I'm guessing anywere from 76-80.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Gordon vs. Leon - Bracket: Leon - Vote: Leon (26/29)
From: jonthomson | Posted: 8/17/2005 2:12:06 PM | Message Detail
I have Yoshi at roughly a tripling.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 8/17/2005 2:15:00 PM | Message Detail
Alright cool. That means you guys have to do what my sig has been saying for the past month and a half. >_>
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/17/2005 2:16:26 PM | Message Detail
I can't see Yoshi quadrupling Laharl... I wouldn't put Laharl THAT much below the King/Cecil, and I think Yoshi's at about Tidus and Kirby's level. So I'd say probably 75 or 76.

And Ocelot vs. Pac-Man... well, that's anybody's guess.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: meche313 | Posted: 8/17/2005 2:21:26 PM | Message Detail
Losing that bad to Vyse just means that he IS capable of being quad by Yoshi.
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That's right. Cloud N. Candy would get a NEGATIVE percentage, and RPGuy's extrapolated calculator would crash. - therealmnm
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/17/2005 2:26:53 PM | Message Detail
Here's some proof that different days give different results (they're like 3 weeks apart).

http://archive.gamespy.com/titlefight/matches/0125.shtml

http://archive.gamespy.com/titlefight/matches/0307.shtml
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/17/2005 2:27:11 PM | Message Detail
No. Samus is a very strong character, but the way you say "Samus is more popular than Mario right now" seems to indicate that you think Samus has suddenly become more popular recently, when the last game that really might have made any difference was Prime.

And I'm confident Mario will win. They're both Nintendo headliners, and there's nothing that suggests that there's not a large common factor between Mario's and Samus' fanbases. And they're likely to swing towards Mario, Metroid is clearly the third series in the Nintendo hierarchy.


No, I've believed since 2002 that Samus is more popular than Mario. She did quite well for herself in a year that Mario was supposed to be the clear favorite. Add to that, she only had her three games and SSB to work off of. And it's not like her games are record sellers. For her to be as strong as he is suggests to me that her fanbase is quite sincere.

I think her recent surge of games, including Prime and Prime 2, Metroid Fusion, and Metroid Zero Mission, and not to mention her MP:Hunters demo packaged with EVERY SINGLE DS in NA, have caused a general increase in her popularity.

Sure, the Mario series may be more popular than Metroid, but it doesn't mean that Mario as a CHARACTER is more popular than Samus Aran. Based on who they are as characters, and how they are designed, I have no problem believing that Samus is more popular than Mario. A lot of people here even ADMIT that they like Samus better than Mario, but it just doesn't feel right to pick against Mario. Not feeling right just doesn't cut it when you're dealing with popularity.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: transience | Posted: 8/17/2005 2:32:11 PM | Message Detail
every Mario argument I've seen has gone something like 'he's an icon, dammit, he deserves to win!' I've never seen anyone actually say 'gosh, that Mario.. I really like him!'

so I'll take Samus. it's got nothin' to do with stats.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: jonthomson | Posted: 8/17/2005 2:35:39 PM | Message Detail
I'll leave the Mario-Samus debate by pointing in the general direction of the leaderboard and who most of them have winning.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: transience | Posted: 8/17/2005 2:38:06 PM | Message Detail
and I point to Cloud in 2k3.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/17/2005 2:41:19 PM | Message Detail
And I point to Link in 2k2
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/17/2005 2:46:52 PM | Message Detail
And I point to Link in 2k2

Link was NOT the heavy favorite in 2k2, Mario was.

And the Nintendo SFF seems to favor Link in their match.

Unless that's what you're trying to say there...

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/17/2005 2:47:16 PM | Message Detail
I'll leave the Mario-Samus debate by pointing in the general direction of the leaderboard and who most of them have winning.

Points to BOP having Samus double up Mario as a favorite to win the matchup, 104-48. If you add that to the top 50 leaderboard, and Samus is STILL the favorite. Not that I'm thinking 200 brackets are cause enough to determine the match. I'd much rather go by actual contest performance...
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: transience | Posted: 8/17/2005 2:47:41 PM | Message Detail
he was saying that Mario was the favourite in 2k2 and got smashed by Link.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/17/2005 3:19:48 PM | Message Detail
Next year, Mario for champ, Vincent for runner up.*

* this, of course, assumes bother Mario 128 and DoC are available to the NA public in time for the next contest.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/17/2005 3:27:50 PM | Message Detail
Mario having the bracket support doesn't really say much, as the majority that vote don't have brackets.
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/17/2005 3:38:19 PM | Message Detail
At worst, assuming no cheating (yeah, right) the bracket makers end up making at least 1/4 of the votes in an average-to-high match (in 2k3 even the highest turnouts were only 4x the brackets iirc). Now, assuming only average turnout and bracket makers cheating Mario's favor over Link shoul dhave been huge. His loss, therefore, showed that the pecking order for Nintendo fans can clearly be against the icon.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/17/2005 3:42:38 PM | Message Detail
Next year, Mario for champ, Vincent for runner up.*

* this, of course, assumes bother Mario 128 and DoC are available to the NA public in time for the next contest.


That would have to assume that we will still have the ToC, since Mario will NEVER get past a TP'ed Link.

Hell, even AC'ed Cloud would need a miracle to get past TP'ed Link.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Phediuk | Posted: 8/17/2005 4:09:51 PM | Message Detail
Correct me if I'm wrong, but at Leon's current %, he's just straddling the VFL. Seems he's weaker than Jill after all, though I imagine he'd be much moreso without RE4.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/17/2005 4:20:00 PM | Message Detail
bracket makers cheating Mario's favor over Link

But how many would be Mario cheaters were in a winning position? You could clearly see that if there were 10 people with Mario on the leaderboard, and you weren't one of em, you lose. I think that argument is kinda silly, Chichiri. Mario cheaters would not outnumber Link cheaters in that case, because it was the final match. There were probably 10 Link winners on the leaderboard as well.
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Raiden fact of the post: Raiden's faucets pre-purify his water, but without that "purifiedy" taste.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/17/2005 4:39:50 PM | Message Detail
heck, there are people whose job it is to figure out how a presidential election is going to go, and even they're off. if someone who works 40 hours a week to get accurate results is off, wouldn't you think some simple computation would be? it's not a reason to attack the x-stats; they are what they are.

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/detail.php?board=8&topic=22908002&message=249804589

Completely agree with ya.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/17/2005 4:42:16 PM | Message Detail
Uh, I haven't paid a lot of attention in a while, but...at his current pace, could Leon conceivably break 60%? He's been rising slowly all day and now he's only 1.5% away...
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"i started playing mario brothers as luigi and threw the controller down in disgust in the middle of the game because he lacked character"--gokujont
From: shadow8021 | Posted: 8/17/2005 4:43:43 PM | Message Detail
"Correct me if I'm wrong, but at Leon's current %, he's just straddling the VFL. Seems he's weaker than Jill after all, though I imagine he'd be much moreso without RE4."

Please. I'd take Leon over Jill without second thought. Gordon probably rose due to Half-Life 2.
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Summer Contest Score: 27/29
Today's Pick: Leon Kennedy
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/17/2005 4:44:47 PM | Message Detail
O RLY?

Nah, Freeman would never go up from HL2. That's impossible....
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/17/2005 4:49:25 PM | Message Detail
Leon won't reach 60%. It's taken him almost 5 hours to gain half a percent, and with the night vote probably going Freeman's way, the best he can hope for is to finish at around 59%.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/17/2005 4:53:00 PM | Message Detail
Gordon probably did rise a lil'; I just wouldn't bet on alot. I wouldn't look past Leon > Jill though, if only because Jill's been known to drop every year.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 8/17/2005 4:54:43 PM | Message Detail
Nah, Freeman would never go up from HL2. That's impossible....

Very true. Hell, everyone here believed that Freeman wouldn't get any significant boost from the best game ever, so it must be true.
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/17/2005 4:56:31 PM | Message Detail
I'd be hesitant to take Leon over Jill. Jill was in the movie, Jill was in Marvel vs Capcom 2. It just seems to me like Jill's more the face of Resident Evil.

I'd have taken Jill with ease had Leon not just come off of RE4. Tough call, real tough call.
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Raiden fact of the post: Much the same way as Jill is the true face of Resident Evil, Raiden is the true face of Metal Gear Solid. You just don't realize it yet.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/17/2005 4:56:38 PM | Message Detail
Hell, everyone here believed that Freeman wouldn't get any significant boost from the best game ever, so it must be true.

Look where that got Joanna Dark; being from the best game ever doesn't guarantee ya much strength.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: transience | Posted: 8/17/2005 4:57:08 PM | Message Detail
I'm holding off judging Gordon's strength or Leon's strength until MM/Leon. there are too many variables to just say one gained or the other is weak.

NewLib has probably jumped off several cliffs by now, though.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/17/2005 5:04:36 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, I had actually predicted the following:

"Leon will disappoint in his match with Gordon, then redeem himself for the most part against Mega Man".

I stick to that. Everyone will be baffled. Most will blame it on Mega Man, I bet, should it happen. But I guess he can't get too high on Mega Man for my Jill >= Leon stance to be true. But Jill is above the VFL so it's less humiliating that way... heh heh.
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Raiden fact of the post: Raiden would have 72.88% in this match, at least. Given either opponent.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/17/2005 5:09:45 PM | Message Detail
Yoshi will push a quadrupling tomorrow. Take it to the bank.

But don't cash the check yet.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: swirldude | Posted: 8/17/2005 5:32:23 PM | Message Detail
Yoshi? QUADRUPLING?

You obviously underestimate his power.
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Knuckles the Echidna's road to the Sc2k5 Title!
Round 2: (2)Squall Leonhart
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/17/2005 5:33:14 PM | Message Detail
Alright, Leon is looking to finish with around 59%, and that puts him a little below Conker (but we'll set him equal for convience). Conker is below the VFL at 17.55%.

Funny enough, Mega Man and Conker had a match yesterday, and Conker got 23.98%. Conker was projected to get 22.73%, so we'll assume a 1% boost from Live and Reloaded. So it looks like Adjusted Mega is looking good for now.

If Leon gets 24.88% on Mega, that puts him at the VFL. Now if we set Gordon at the VFL, Leon's performance puts him a little under Donkey Kong, but we'll set him there for convience again. So that means Leon is at 23.55%. If he manages to get over 30.50% on Mega Man, that puts Gordon above the VFL.

So do you think both Leon and Gordon will land above the VFL? I think it's possible for Leon to get over 30% on Mega Man. That leads to my next question.

Are people ready to see Gordon rank over the fodder line?
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Mega Man vs. Conker - Bracket: Megai - Vote: Mega (25/28)
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/17/2005 5:35:29 PM | Message Detail
Nah, I give Leon about 28.5% on Mega Man; I'm not sold on Gordon gaining that much, though I strongly believe he gained.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/17/2005 5:36:13 PM | Message Detail
"You could clearly see that if there were 10 people with Mario on the leaderboard, and you weren't one of em, you lose."

Umm, tiebreakers? And um, half the people on the leaderboard are usually ineligable to boot... If you're one match away from winning you go for it, even if it's a long shot. Better to try and fail then not try at all.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/17/2005 5:37:35 PM | Message Detail
Why does Gordon getting 40% on Leon mean he gained!? You people seriously need to stop trying to base Gordon on stats. Leon will get 35%+ on MM and I'd still take Conker over Gordon because he's Gordon frikking Freeman.
From: durango X3 | Posted: 8/17/2005 5:38:25 PM | Message Detail
FIVE DAYS?! I thought you got married in September! o_0
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Wait, do you hear that? It's the sound of the Reaper calling your name. -Magus Zeal
From: Villainous Fawful | Posted: 8/17/2005 5:39:22 PM | Message Detail
I can't believe you people are still using the stats. What will it take for it to get drilled into your heads that they don't work?
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I HAVE FURY!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/17/2005 5:41:58 PM | Message Detail
Oh, I played a demo of Mario Superstar Baseball today at EB Games. That game is looking to be very good. I'll definitely get it when it comes out here next month.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/17/2005 5:47:42 PM | Message Detail
Oh, I played a demo of Mario Superstar Baseball today at EB Games. That game is looking to be very good. I'll definitely get it when it comes out here next month.

I did last night at Sam Goody's. I'll second that; it was enjoyable for the quick two innings I played. It may get my purchase yet.....
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Heroic Dr Wily | Posted: 8/17/2005 5:49:01 PM | Message Detail
Donkey Kong will beat Master Chief.
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/17/2005 5:50:22 PM | Message Detail
If you're one match away from winning you go for it, even if it's a long shot

Let's just put it this way... if you have 150 points, and Mario winning, and 40 people on the leaderboard have 160 points+ and Mario winning, what do you think your chances of winning are? Even if you're "going for the long shot", the pool of available cheaters is still greatly reduced.

Then, you've also got the situation of the Link winners. Say there were only 10 on the Leaderboard with Link winning. The way I see it, that makes the Link voter (I believe there were way more Mario winners than Link winners on the board) more likely to cheat, because he's only got 10 competitors on the top 50.

I'll just say this, the majority of eligible cheaters had given up hope, and there were also a nice amount that would cheat for Link considering that seemed to be the underdog, and that would level more of your competition.

Mario's cheating being significantly more than Link's cheating = a negligible factor in that match, that's my stance on it.
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Raiden fact of the post: Without Raiden's influence, this topic series may not have even escaped the single digits. Believe it or not.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/17/2005 5:52:12 PM | Message Detail
Oh, I played a demo of Mario Superstar Baseball today at EB Games. That game is looking to be very good. I'll definitely get it when it comes out here next month.

Yeah, from what I've seen it looks like it's going to be a good game. Seeing Bowser on the pitcher's mound is enough to make you want to get it. However, I don't like baseball at all. If I ever were to buy a baseball game though, this would be it!

Baseball video games can be fun with the right quirks added to them. I think I had this game called Super Baseball Simulator 1000 or something on SNES. It gave the batter, pitcher, and outfielders special powers, such as disappearing balls, pitcher doppledangers, comet hits, turbo sliding, etc. Mario Baseball looks like it's going to be that type of game.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/17/2005 5:54:15 PM | Message Detail
I think I had this game called Super Baseball Simulator 1000 or something on SNES.

Haha, I know what game you're talking about. That was awesome. With that comet shot, whoever tried to catch it got carried all the way back to the wall. Very enjoyable indeed.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: transience | Posted: 8/17/2005 5:55:24 PM | Message Detail
baseball simulator 1000 is the best baseball game ever made, as far as I'm concerned. the line drive shot that hit whoever tried to catch it to the wall was flat out unfair.
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http://picturesofwalls.com
From: meche313 | Posted: 8/17/2005 5:55:44 PM | Message Detail
Heh that's good to see. I thought I was the only one that was thinking this was NOT going to be any other Mario game released like others. (Although, Mario's sports games are great, Mario Tennis comes to mind)
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That's right. Cloud N. Candy would get a NEGATIVE percentage, and RPGuy's extrapolated calculator would crash. - therealmnm
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/17/2005 5:57:17 PM | Message Detail
Seeing DK bat with a boxing glove is kinda weird though. He just punches the ball.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: dragon master saaji | Posted: 8/17/2005 6:10:22 PM | Message Detail
Mario will beat Samus. The reason why is because Paper Mario 2 sold more then Metriod Prime 2. Nuff said.
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"Rob a gamestore. What are those pasty pale gamer boys going to do? Throw cartridges at you?" --JugheadsHat--
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