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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 206
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/16/2005 6:37:12 PM | Message Detail
Hey, if that poll would have had Mario first it would have been respectable. Clearly Mario benefits from being the center of his universe even if the others have more dedicated fans.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/16/2005 6:37:16 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, I'm not taking fodder stompings for much of anything. The way I see it Tifa and Vincent fans are likely to be very surprised come round 2 if they put too much stock into fodder stompings.
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Raiden fact of the post: I made a blank fact last time I posted... what the hell? (And this one has nothing to do with Raiden!?!)
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/16/2005 6:37:25 PM | Message Detail
Oh, and there was Zero, but there are still some odd variables that could explain that.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/16/2005 6:38:35 PM | Message Detail
And so will the people who still think Dante can win for the way he beat Terra.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/16/2005 6:39:25 PM | Message Detail
The problem lies more with Frog's 4-pack, indeed. As I said this morning, to put the blame on Solid **** may or may not be correct, but there clearly was a problem, unless you want to believe Riku > Sora, MC took a massive drop with Halo 2 and Lavos can hang in tough with Magus.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/16/2005 6:40:25 PM | Message Detail
The problem seems to be moreso with Frog's sprite more than Snake's awful picture because Magus overperformed with his sprite, too, and Snake performed just fine with his sprite against Ryu.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/16/2005 6:40:44 PM | Message Detail
Heh heh... touche, Chichiri...
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Raiden fact of the post: What about that time Raiden stomped the hell out of Gordon Freeman? What do you mean you don't remember that poll?
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 8/16/2005 6:41:26 PM | Message Detail
Snake's sprite against Ryu didn't look like a pile of ****.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/16/2005 6:41:38 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, so Frog will break 35% against Samus if he gets his sprite, is that what you're saying? ;)
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/16/2005 6:42:44 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, so Frog will break 35% against Samus if he gets his sprite, is that what you're saying? ;)

If he does, I wouldn't be surprised.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/16/2005 6:43:41 PM | Message Detail
I kinda expected a joke about the match being 52-48 no matter what... oh well. ;)
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 8/16/2005 6:44:40 PM | Message Detail
Frog will get killed by Samus and prove that he is weaker than Sora once again!
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/16/2005 6:44:50 PM | Message Detail
And so will the people who still think Dante can win for the way he beat Terra.

I still think Dante will win. (but Vincent is the favorite going into the match)

>_>

<_<
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/16/2005 6:47:48 PM | Message Detail
I dunno, man... I just can't see Kerrigan being involved in an all-day affair against Guybrush Threepwood.

(Yes, I know the stats may be wrong on this, I just love saying this.)
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/16/2005 6:52:05 PM | Message Detail
I still say Terra would beat Vyse, so technically I'm not extrapolating through fodder... so there! Heh...

And yes, I know how ridiculously high that puts Dante. To be frank, I don't care. Dante just did better than he should have, or something... or he actually is that high... uwehehehe! But seriously though, I'm just not seeing Vyse beating Terra. It defies logic, by gawd! I'd have to see Terra actually lose to someone down there to believe it.

Actually, I have a feeling that the Vyse fodder line in itself might just be too high, and that he's just proven to be rather squash resistant. In any case...
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Raiden fact of the post: Raiden disapproves of the foul language displayed in the Raiden facts as of late... they're supposed to be for the whole family.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/16/2005 6:53:37 PM | Message Detail
Problem is, Kirby beat Cecil by even more, which tells me there's some flu all old-school FF characters have, and Kefka is a god among them.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/16/2005 6:53:41 PM | Message Detail
I still say Terra would beat Vyse, so technically I'm not extrapolating through fodder... so there! Heh...

No, you're trying to use "logic" and "common sense," which doesn't always work here. Heck, Terra could beat Vyse head-to-head and still be weaker indirectly.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/16/2005 6:55:27 PM | Message Detail
I'd take most FF characters over fodder higher than them just because their FF characters. I can't see Kuja having an all day affair with JC Denton and Terra losing to Terry Bogard.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/16/2005 6:57:07 PM | Message Detail
I'd take most FF characters over fodder higher than them just because their FF characters.

Like Master Hand and Dr. Robotnik?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/16/2005 6:57:24 PM | Message Detail
Well Cecil didn't surprise me that much to be honest. FF4 is among the least popular FFs on this site. Whereas FF6 is probably the third most popular? I knew Cecil would be fodder... a bit lower than I expected, but I figured he would be fodder.
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Machine's broken, go away!
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/16/2005 6:57:40 PM | Message Detail
But Kuja lost to Master Hand, a miserable weakling. If he were blown away by a strong character, it'd be something else and you might have the benefit of the doubt somewhat, but HE WAS BEATEN BY GRADE A FODDER.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:19:27 PM | Message Detail
20XX Division Round 1 - Match 30 – (4)Gordon Freeman vs. (5)Leon Kennedy

Gordon
Game/Series Known From: Half-Life
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: 53rd (11.31%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 53rd (15.86%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2004: 51st (13.40%)
Seed in 2002: 3
Seed in 2003: 7
Seed in 2004: 10
Lost in 2002 to Tina in Round 1
Lost in 2003 to Max in Round 1
Lost in 2004 to Sam in Round 1

I wonder if people nominate him just to see him lose.

Leon
Game/Series Known From: Resident Evil
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: N/A
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: N/A
Extrapolated Rank in 2004: N/A
Seed in 2002: N/A
Seed in 2003: N/A
Seed in 2004: N/A

After RE4, Leon looks like he could become the driving force of the RE series now.

25 Reasons Why Leon Kennedy will beat Gordon Freeman
1. Leon > Gordon
2. Half-Life is on the PC, and if you’re name isn’t Diablo or Starcraft, you’re a weak PC character.
3. RE4 came out later than Half-Life 2 did.
4. RE4 made escort missions not suck, and that’s a hard thing to do.
5. You can see up Ashley’s skirt, take THAT Alyx!
6. Ada Wong…Her last name is Wong…teehee.
7. Half-Life lost to Metroid Prime, RE lost to MGS. Leon lost to nobody!
8. Gordon Freeman wears glasses. Leon is too cool for vision enhancement!
9. Gordon lost to Tina Armstrong.
10. GORDON LOST TO TINA ARMSTRONG!!!
11. RE4 > HL2 *raises flame shield and Kefka barriers*
12. Leon is hotter than Freeman.
13. There’s no job cooler than killing Spanish speaking zombies.
14. If you poke Leon in the stomach, he giggles. It’s so cute.
15. TETSUOOOOOOO is voting for Leon.
16. January > November
17. Gordon has a Gravity Gun…………wait, Leon stole it. >.>
18. Green Herb + Red Herb + Yellow Herb = Instant Win
19. HM supports Freeman, and Slow already called the match in favor of Freeman.
20. Salazar says Miiiister Kennedy in a cool way.
21. 5 seeds > 4 seeds
22. Amazing Telephone….IS YOUR FATHER
23. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
24. Leon has a Banana Phone
25. GORDON FREEMAN NEVER WINS! GFNW 4 LIFE!

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Leon will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Gordon: 39% - Leon: 61%



Ulti’s Analysis

(Special note from Ulti: due to me having to take care of a bunch of wedding stuff, my analyses are going to be very lax and short until the end of August, possibly even later. Sorry in advance.)

(Special note from Moltar: I………am your mother!)

Ah, the standard "Gordon versus generic male character" match in which Gordon finds a way to lose regardless. Even if Leon is projected to do well, Gordon will overperform. And still suck.

Prediction: Leon with 57.34%


Soul’s Analysis

Two characters from two of the best games this year go one-on-one in the first round. Half-Life 2 was the better of the two, but would that give Gordon Freeman a boost? Leon was also in a previous Resident Evil game, but since this is his first time in the contest, we have no clue where he would lie.

The closest we have to Leon is Jill Valentine. Although she's in somewhat of a slump in these contests, she usually performs at a mid-level tier. If Leon is around that place, then he could defeat Gordon Freeman. Also, let's not forget GFNW.

My prediction: Leon Kennedy wins 56.36% of the vote. Two great characters, one has to take a dive early. Pretty sad.



Outback’s Analysis

Hopefully Gordon will land at 13.37 on the X-Stats this year.

Leon with 69.99%

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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Mega Man vs. Conker - Bracket: Mega - Vote: Mega (25/28)
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:19:35 PM | Message Detail
Inviso’s Analysis

For the past three contests, Gordon Freeman has been nothing more than a joke. Twice he faced easily beatable characters in Tina Armstrong and Max Payne, and then faced Sam Fisher. Gordon lost to all three of them. And now, it seems that Gordon might’ve finally had a chance at winning. His new game, Half-Life 2, came out, and won the PC game of the year here on Gamefaqs, and is in contention for Game of the Year in most regular groupings too. And then, Ceej comes along, and puts him against Leon Kennedy. Leon is from Resident Evil 4, the biggest Gamecube game thus far this year. It is also a big contender for GotY in the same grouping as Half-Life 2. The difference? PC games, with the exception of Blizzard games, get no respect on this site, their characters get even less. Gamecube is the biggest love here on Gamefaqs, even moreso than PS2 if you compare fanboys. Sadly, Gordon is destined to lose once more…but his day will come...someday.

My Bracket: Leon Kennedy
My Vote: Gordon Freeman
My Prediction: Leon Kennedy with 60.04%



Tnote’s Analysis

GFNW.

Sorry, I couldn’t resist… =)

Pick: Leon Kennedy with 66.67%



Vlado’s Analysis

GFNW, they say... And this will stay so, it seems. In the very year Gordon actually stood a chance of winning a match, he got pitted against an opponent very few in this contest would be able to beat. Resident Evil 4 is a huge favourite to win Game of the Year and Leon Kennedy is the star there. It appeared on GameCube first and Leon will surely draw in the votes of many Nintendo fans, too. While he has no chance of beating Mega Man, it looks like he has this first match in the bag.

I believe that Gordon will have gained a few percent since last year. Half-Life 2, the true game of 2004, is simply revolutionary in about every aspect. It's so awesome it got ME hooked, and I'm far from an FPS fan. Unfortunately, due to the nature of the game, the main character can't actually be seen much, other than on the box. This is surely one of the reasons why he does so badly. PC game characters have also never been really strong here... Diablo is an exception, I guess, but even he is not impressive at all, and obviously has a set limit on how well he can do. Not to mention that Gordon's sad reputation will gain him the anti-votes of a good number of people, simply because they enjoy seeing him lose year after year and don't want "the universe to implode". Poor Gordon... Maybe next year, maybe next year...

Leon will be relatively strong. I think he'll do better than the other evident GameCube representative, the Tales of Symphonia characters. While he won't live up to some people's expectations, he won't be half bad, either. I believe he will be around Donkey Kong's level. As I said, his game is very popular, and has gained quite a few fans who hadn't even played a Resident Evil, or a survival horror game before. And, with RE4 coming to PlayStation 2, I think that the game's popularity can only go up. Nintendo fanboys are pissed that it's no longer GameCube-exclusive... How can you not be annoyed by such people? Wow, more people will get to enjoy the game, let's get mad about that! -_-;

Predicted percentage: Leon Kennedy with 63.73%.

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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Mega Man vs. Conker - Bracket: Mega - Vote: Mega (25/28)
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:22:35 PM | Message Detail
FACT or FICTION: Leon will break 70% on Gordon Freeman.

I say Fact.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 25/28 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Conker
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:24:43 PM | Message Detail
So...a grand total of TWO people expect Leon to be better than fodder.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:25:56 PM | Message Detail
Fact.

Some of those predictions are just too low.

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Cloud Strife: What’s going to happen to the Planet?
Sephiroth: That… will be for you to decide.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:28:12 PM | Message Detail
And for the record, Nemesis would be expected to get 65.24% against Gordon Freeman.

So, once again, all of TWO people expect Leon Kennedy to be stronger than Nemesis.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: cyko | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:29:11 PM | Message Detail
fiction.

i say there is no way that Leon will be as strong as Jill. he will perform decently and beat Gordon easier than Sam and Max (heh, who else remembers their game?), but don't forget that he is one of the characters that the board pushed to get in, much like Terra, Kerrigan, Lloyd, and Ocelot. i see Leon scoring in the 60-65 range.

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:30:00 PM | Message Detail
but don't forget that he is one of the characters that the board pushed to get in, much like Terra, Kerrigan, Lloyd, and Ocelot.

*looks at Tifa*
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Summer 2005 Contest - 25/28 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Conker
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:30:24 PM | Message Detail
Ah, the standard "Gordon versus generic male character" match

Hey, it's that dog...

Oh wait, no. MEESTER SCOTT KENNEDEE.
From: cyko | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:31:18 PM | Message Detail
Tifa and Vincent don't count as board creations. they are from FF7. =P

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:31:39 PM | Message Detail
I think after seeing Knuckles/Magus we cannot transitively create a fodder line. Until we have every character facing every character, our X-Stats have been proven to be outside of 10% inaccurate on a few occasions now. Just because Leon hits a certain percentage on Gordon does not mean he is or is not fodder. He may break 70% this round, and then get tripled by Mega Man. Or he may not crack 60% on Gordon, and then break 40% on Mega Man Jackson. The one thing I have learned is to take each individual match with a grain of salt, and just go with my gut from now on. And my gut says Leon struggles to double Gordon, and then somehow breaks 40% on Mr. Jackson.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 27/29
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:31:45 PM | Message Detail
OK, then Frog in 2k4.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 25/28 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Conker
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:32:13 PM | Message Detail
Tifa and Vincent don't count as board creations. they are from FF7. =P

But they STILL received heavy amounts of rallying from board 8. And even Revolver Ocelot would double Gordon. Come on, you don't think Leon can beat out NEMESIS?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Heroic Dr Wily | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:32:40 PM | Message Detail
Leon can either destroy Gordy or make the universe explode.

Nobody can predict what Resident Evil does in these things.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:32:44 PM | Message Detail
OK, then Frog in 2k4.

And Vivi, too.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:33:22 PM | Message Detail
I think after seeing Knuckles/Magus we cannot transitively create a fodder line.

Why that match? Sam Fodder predicted that match relatively well.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Heroic Dr Wily | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:33:26 PM | Message Detail
Come on, you don't think Leon can beat out NEMESIS?

No he can not.

STARS
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:34:51 PM | Message Detail
I think after seeing Knuckles/Magus we cannot transitively create a fodder line.

No, we'll just have to wait until after Tifa/Luigi and Tifa/Sonic.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 25/28 points
Current Match Prediction: Mega Man vs. Conker
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:35:56 PM | Message Detail
Not to mention, it was the STRONG characters that threw Magus off (including our base), not the fodder characters, who pegged him pretty well.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: cyko | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:37:06 PM | Message Detail
i'm not saying it's a guarantee that all board 8-backed characters become fodder, but those Board 8-hyped characters almost always wind up being overhyped. and Frog was also way overhyped in 2k4. he barely scraped by Liquid and MC, both of whom he was supposed to blow out of the water.

as far as Leon beating Nemesis, i would think Leon would narrowly beat Nemesis after RE4, but i still don't completely buy the accuracy of comparing the Sp2k5 stats to last years. i would predict Nemesis to barely get 57- 60% on Gordon.

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:37:33 PM | Message Detail
i say there is no way that Leon will be as strong as Jill

He'll be at least as strong as Jill, actually.

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Cloud Strife: What’s going to happen to the Planet?
Sephiroth: That… will be for you to decide.
From: Heroic Dr Wily | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:38:24 PM | Message Detail
Nemesis would get 99.9% on Gordon. Why?

Half Life players don't run very fast.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:38:39 PM | Message Detail
I honestly think people are forgetting just how weak Gordon is.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 26/29 points
Current Match Prediction: Gordon Freeman vs. Leon Kennedy
From: cyko | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:39:48 PM | Message Detail
i should also add that board-favorites can have some contest strength, but the list of over-hyped board favorites is much longer than the list of those who didn't live up to expectations.

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:40:04 PM | Message Detail
No, people are just being wary if Half-Life 2 decides to give him a boost out of nowhere. Which is understandable.
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"i started playing mario brothers as luigi and threw the controller down in disgust in the middle of the game because he lacked character"--gokujont
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:40:13 PM | Message Detail
Maybe it is a little low, but I am seriously doubting Leon. My faith in him is low.

I just have a feeling he won't impress tommorrow. =(
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Mega Man vs. Conker - Bracket: Mega - Vote: Mega (25/28)
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:40:15 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, it's hard to fathom just how weak Gordon Freeman is sometimes. He would only be projected to get 37.4% on somebody who ranks at the VFL. THAT is weak.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: cyko | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:40:27 PM | Message Detail
er, i mean DID live up to expectations.

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/16/2005 7:42:07 PM | Message Detail
I'm pretty sure the boost Gordon will get will be minimal, if anything.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 26/29 points
Current Match Prediction: Gordon Freeman vs. Leon Kennedy
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