DDR Mario Mix will outsell Metroid Prime 1

Luigi and Bowser have obviously benefitted in a large way from Paper Mario 2. It only stands to reason that Mario will as well.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Have the stats ever been dead on when picking the percentages?

If you mean within 1%, then yes, they have been very close quite a few times. Ryu vs. KOS-MOS, and Sonic vs. Ryu, Yoshi vs. Ryo Hazuki, Vercetti vs. Zero...hm, all in SC2K4. I think the fact that so many matches went exactly as expected in SC2K4 just shows how accurate the SC2K3 stats were that year. Also, with the aid of extrapolated stats and past matches you can predict results in later rounds quite accurately.

Oh, and if we do ranges for X-stats...I don't think that's a such a good idea. I think there are way too many matches that had something weird happen, or the relative popularities between two characters have changed so drastically, that explaining them by stats is impossible, unless you get into ranges so ridiculously large that they become completely useless. I think the standard X-stats are still the way to go. Just take them with a grain of salt, as others have been constantly saying.

Leon will get 35%+ on MM and I'd still take Conker over Gordon because he's Gordon frikking Freeman.

Nah, I disagree. I do believe the stats won't be that far off, and there is no such factor for Gordon. Leon will easily be doubled, and maybe he'll be tripled.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

"Let's just put it this way... if you have 150 points, and Mario winning, and 40 people on the leaderboard have 160 points+ and Mario winning, what do you think your chances of winning are? Even if you're "going for the long shot", the pool of available cheaters is still greatly reduced. "

You're seriously over exaggerating it, and I'm not talking about those impossible scores. Mario had something around 1:6 odds, Link 1:9ish. Anyway, for some peopel there's also more at stake than money. Pride, in all shapes, effects the outcome of every match... be it one's pride in bracket making or one's pride in their favorite character. Hell, out last big cheater that was caught was stuffing for a character and he didn't even have a bracket. That alone should tell you it take little to no reasoning to cheat... and if someone had Mario as their final winner even with only having 50-60 points they may still cheat just because they want to see Mario win. Trust me, that match was all the way in Mario's favor in every way except the fact that even the Nintendo fanbase was willing to drop him for the much more well liked Link. Period.
---
Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Seeing DK bat with a boxing glove is kinda weird though. He just punches the ball.

Which, as I played as Donkey Kong, absolutely owned. In fact, the only thing cooler would have been if he did it bare-fisted.


About the cheating-thing...for what it's worth guys, there's been three times anything's been caught cheating: first in 2k2 when Crono cheated in the Final Four, second in 2k4 when Starcraft cheated against SSBM in the Elite Eight, and last recently this contest when Kefka cheated against Tommy Vercetti in the first round. Very small sample, yes, and we may not have caught every match with cheating...but based off of those three examples that we have availible, one would think late-bracket cheating would be the more popular thing.

I completely agree with Lopen's logic though, but I also think Chichiri has a point about pride in one's bracket; if I know I've lost any chance of gettin' in the Top Fifty and it's a match where I don't feel completely one-sided to, I'm gonna still bracket-vote; it makes me feel somewhat more justified, even if it's minor at best. Of course, I'm still gonna vote for my favorites if it's against someone I like, but if it's two characters I like or two I'm indifferent to, I'm gonna bracket-vote, even if my bracket is as good as dead. If nothing else, it's nice to have the bragging rights, even if I've rarely ever been one to use 'em when I have 'em.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

You know, I remember we were talking about who the weakest possible character we could find was a while back, and we came up with a potential winner in Jay Solano. But a name just occurred to me, and I'm surprised it didn't earlier:

Captain, from U.S.S. Ticonderoga. He probably wouldn't be eligible due to not having an actual name (or maybe he's based off of a real person, I don't really know), but I think he might could be worse off than Tanner...
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

And at least Leon can now walk away with this distinction: He has now gotten 10,000 more votes than any other RE character has ever gotten in a single match.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

And at least Leon can now walk away with this distinction: He has now gotten 10,000 more votes than any other RE character has ever gotten in a single match.

*old FF victory music plays*
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Knuckles the Echidna's road to the Sc2k5 Title!
Round 2: (2)Squall Leonhart

The same Captain in your NCAA contest? That'd be good too, but at least somebody supported him to bein your contest...plus, you say he might not be eligible. We shouldn't risk that.


Jay Solano's still the best, though one I feel obligated to mention is Awesome Possum (from the self-titled Genesis game). Awesome Possum is from an obscure platformer on the Genesis where he manages to collect points by recycling...

...just atrocious enough to work, though I think JS is still probably our best bet. I think Awesome Possum's still worth mentioning though.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I think Awesome Possum could garner enough votes just based on his name to beat out Tanner.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Heh, perhaps...perhaps.

I just thought of one more (I'm done after this, promise): AKI Man. He's only appeared in one game, and that game was WCW/NWO Revenge. He was one of several original characters in their own league (that, as a wrestling fan, rarely ever looked at), and he was in a silly silver/blue/red-striped costume (mask included). That one's also worth considering.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

...I'd vote for AKI Man over a lot of characters. He was awesome.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Mmm awesome possum... sounds like what will be included in my last meal.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 27/29

the Jay Solano bandwagon has begun. there is no turning back now.

I can't imagine anything being weaker than JS. it's possible something could be as weak, but I can't imagine anything weaker.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

Captain, I tell ya! Captain!
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Leeroy Jenkins > Jay Solano

20XX Division Round 1 - Match 31 – (3)Yoshi vs. (6)Laharl

Yoshi
Game/Series Known From: Super Mario
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: N/A
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 23rd (27.05%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2004: 38th (18.26%) Adjusted Value: 26th (25.22%)
Seed in 2002: N/A
Seed in 2003: 4
Seed in 2004: 5
Lost in 2003 to Bowser in Round 2
Lost in 2004 to Link in the Sweet 16

Yoshi needs to lose to someone not from Nintendo…alright?

Laharl
Game/Series Known From: Disgaea
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: N/A
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: N/A
Extrapolated Rank in 2004: 49th (14.25%)
Seed in 2002: N/A
Seed in 2003: N/A
Seed in 2004: 9
Lost in 2004 to Vyse in Round 1

Hey Laharl! Looking to get your butt-kicked again?

Alright…why is Laharl here instead of Shadow, Liquid, Tails or…that flower girl, whatever her name is. I would have even accepted Bomberman in Laharl’s place! But meh, Yoshi will show this Contest weakling the door.

In other news, a group of Disgaea fanboys are outside my house with pitchforks and torches, chanting something I don’t like. I might as well finish this now, while I have the chance.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Yoshi will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is:Yoshi: 76% - Laharl: 24%



Ulti’s Analysis

(Special note from Ulti: due to me having to take care of a bunch of wedding stuff, my analyses are going to be very lax and short until the end of August, possibly even later. Sorry in advance.)

(Special note from Moltar: Chrono Cross >>>>>>>> FFT >= Disgaea)

Sucks to see my second favorite character go down so early, but it happens. Disgaea simply isn't well-known enough.

Prediction: Yoshi with 63.63%



Soul’s Analysis

Laharl has been in the 2004 contest, and almost got doubled by Vyse. What more needs to be said?

Yoshi is pretty strong character. Expect a little boost from him because of Super Mario 64 DS, but not of any significant amount. It shall be an interesting to see the outcome of the Yoshi/Ocelot/Pacman match.

Yeah, got nothing else to say really.

My prediction: Yoshi wins with 75.00% of the vote. Only one more match until the highly anticipated second round!



Outback’s Analysis

Allow me to show a brief enactment of what will happen tomorrow.

"SLURP!"

"YOSHI!"

Thank you.

Yoshi with 75.67%
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Gordon vs. Leon - Bracket: Leon - Vote: Leon (26/29)

Inviso’s Analysis

Man, writing analyses for Yoshi is going to be hard because I can’t follow his name with any words starting with t or z. Anyway, Yoshi made the sweet sixteen last year, losing to Link after beating Luigi, whom I thought was a more popular character. Laharl…didn’t do jack **** last year. He’s a cult character from a cult RPG and he got beaten by ANOTHER cult character from ANOTHER cult RPG. If I can’t understand how Vyse got back in…I definitely can’t understand how Laharl got back in. Is it to see if he can perform even WORSE this time around? The biggest injustice about this is the fact that Laharl is given the same seed as Knuckles, yet was given a much easier opponent, which just goes to show that Ceej really hates Knuckles for some reason. *sigh* Poor poor Knuckles. Anyway, Yoshi has this in the bag. End of story.

My Bracket: Yoshi
My Vote: Laharl
My Prediction: Yoshi with 71.96%



Tnote’s Analysis

The VFL pasted Laharl last contest, and while I would expect him to be stronger this year (since his game has had another year to reign in gamers), against Yoshi it will not matter.

Yoshi has been a contest wildcard, over performing and under performing like whoa in his matches thanks to the mass amounts of SFFdom he has encountered. Yoshi will have no issues defeating Laharl, and the best the foul-mouthed demon can hope for is to avoid the tripling. In homage, we shall address, paraphrased, the greatest quote in gaming history…

Laharl: For some reason, I just cannot stand sexy bodies!
Laharl: Incidentally, flat-chested girls like you (to Flonne and Etna) have absolutely no effect on me whatsoever.

Pick: Yoshi with 75.83%



Vlado’s Analysis

Laharl is, without any doubt, the weakest 6th seed, but it's obvious that he has gained even more fans since last year. He lost to Vyse then and he'd surely lose against the same opponent if they met now, but I'm sure that he has become a little stronger. That, however, is far from enough to give him much of a chance against Yoshi. Simply being a Nintendo character will get Yoshi a huge number of votes, and he'll also have the LUE support, something that shouldn't be overlooked (at least, if they do again what they did for him last year). I expect Laharl to be just a little stronger than last year and Yoshi will surely have kept his level, which should be enough for him to win two matches. As painful as it will be to see a worthless joke character like him defeat one of the best villains ever conceived in Revolver Ocelot.

Predicted percentage: Yoshi with 70.50%.

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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Gordon vs. Leon - Bracket: Leon - Vote: Leon (26/29)

I heard Vlado say that worthless line for a pretty long while now.
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus

It hurt me to post it....

Yoshi rocks. <3
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Gordon vs. Leon - Bracket: Leon - Vote: Leon (26/29)

I got two questions, since I'm not too sure: when was the earliest time we ever lost all of our perfects in a contest, and what contest had the most perfects at the end of round one (preferably with a number of how many perfects were left, please)?
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

In SC2K2, RPGExpert lost his perfect on the 3rd match of Round 2, Alucard vs. Duke Nukem (-.-;) So, that's the soonest the final perfect has fallen in any contest.

The contest with the most perfects at the end of Round 1 is undoubtedly SpC2K4. Problem is...the stats didn't come around until late in Round 2.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

A lot of those Yoshi predictions seem...low.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

I figured either Spring/Summer 2k4 had that honor, though I was hopin' for a number. Meh.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I'd wager the most perfects held up for sp2k5, just because it was shorter. didn't we only have 1 for 2k4, the person who had Seph winning it all? I forget when everyone else lost, but s/he had one point up on everyone for quite a while.
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http://picturesofwalls.com

Nah, Master Hand killed most perfects; I'm almost positive less than 50 were left.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Prediction: Yoshi with 63.63%

Yoshi is barely stronger than Vyse?
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti

It's Ulti. He's as delusional about Laharl as he is about Magus >_>
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]

Yoshi isn't given proper respect because he hasn't had any significant matches in the contest yet. Outside of blowouts against Conker and Ryo, Yoshi doesn't have much to show for himself besides that solid win against Luigi. He got beat soundly by Bowser and obliterated by Link.

Yoshi's most significant match is probably his match against Bowser because many people expected him to get by Bowser with ease (heh, fools) and was upset by the Koopa King. At least this year, he will be able to flex his muscles against the likes of Laharl and Ocelot, and perhaps taking a big chunk out of Mega Man (or not).
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Yoshi might have trouble avoiding the doubling against the Blue Bomber, based on what the stats say (OH NO!). Still, I think he can do a bit better than that.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

If Yoshi's still as much stronger than Luigi as he was last year and Luigi can be safely based off of a steady KOS-MOS though (or even a potentially boosted KOS-MOS)...

...no, I don't buy that.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Chichiri, every last point you brought up could also be applied to Link. Every one of em. There's no reason to believe Mario had any huge "cheater advantage". The only difference is Mario had 3/2s of the "bracketeer cheater pool". Anyway, I think that's my final thought on that topic.

Now that HaRRicH brought him up... we need Aki-Man! Though I bet Aki-Man would be low-mid-level fodder, nothing nearly close to Tanner. That doesn't mean we shouldn't try to get him in... heheh.

I'd sooner nominate Aki-Man than some Tanner wannabe, that's for sure.
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Or the Black Ninja from WCW/NWO World Tour. That guy was great. Or Dr. Frank... or Joe Bruiser... man those games are gold!

You know, couldn't Leeroy Jenkins be in the next contest? He did originate in a game, after all.
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I'm just here to post something barely relevant, then fade back into the shadows. It's a tough job, but someone has to do it. Also, I'm not a freaking frog.

Nah, I really doubt any wrestler not named Hulk Hogan would be as strong as Jak in these contests...and AKI Man would be wwaayy down there, heh. He probably wouldn't be Tanner-level, but, ya know...he'd be bad. Real bad.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Note that I'm not calling Jak weak; he was just my standard of choice here.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Nah, I really doubt any wrestler not named Hulk Hogan would be as strong as Jak in these contests...

Are you serious?!
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Seriously; I just really REALLY don't think wrestling is that popular on GameFAQs. I hope I'm wrong and am just under-estimating its popularity here, but I really don't think any real wrestlers would be that strong if they were compared to some midcard-to-high-fodder characters here.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

heh, I hope you're right but think you're wrong. I could see a random wrestler taking down half of the contest.

then again, I could see Darth Vader destroying the contest.

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http://picturesofwalls.com

Oh I could see AKI Man beating the likes of JC Denton. Those N64 wrestling games are actually fairly popular, and Aki-Man has the look that you'd actually remember.

Okay... low fodder, but I'd wager he could beat... at least 15 characters we've had before without actually looking at the stats to check myself. He's got an appealing character model, man!
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Raiden fact of the post: Raiden actually created AKI Man in the later Smackdown!™ games because he missed him.

Leeroy needs to get in the next contest.

I can't believe you just dissed the Hitman like that.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Hey now, I like Bret. Bret > Shawn, bay-bee.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

But Jak is weak, so why not call him that?
---
Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Cloud > Link

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Samus > Sephiroth
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Don't blame me. Blame yourself or God ~ Delita
Summer 2005 Score: 28/30: Yoshi vs Laharl

But Jak is weak, so why not call him that?


He did better than C.J.....
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Don't blame me. Blame yourself or God ~ Delita
Summer 2005 Score: 28/30: Yoshi vs Laharl

Overlord! Overlord!! OVERLORD!!!!
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters

Tifa Armstrong > Leon Kennedy > Sam Fisher > Max Payne >>> GORDON FREEMAN

GFNW. E.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.