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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 204
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:02:38 PM | Message Detail
I'm not too sure, Luigi could be underrated slightly.

Also that Nintendo seems to be on the rise this year so Tifa might underperform a little bit..

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:04:24 PM | Message Detail
71.57%?!

Then again, Luigi is going to perform better than the stats indicate tommorrow, so I'm just warning you guys from now.

I'd say, if Tifa gets 65%+ on Luigi, and Sonic bombs against Diablo, I'll lose my faith in the Blue Blur.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Kratos vs. Diablo - Bracket: Diablo - Vote: Kratos (22/25)
From: chronicfreeze | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:05:12 PM | Message Detail
Seems to me everybody in these series of topics have wanted an excuse to throw Sonic out of the Noble Nine for two years. I still consider him the favorite.


Besides; Squaresoft characters that aren't from FF7 have put up disappointing numbers so far. Do you really want the Noble Nine to be made up for 4 FF7 characters, 3 Nintendo characters, Crono and Mega Man? At least with Solid Snake and Sonic we had some variety.
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"Siiiiiinging in the rain, I'm siiiiiiiiinging in the rain!"
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:05:54 PM | Message Detail
Do you really want the Noble Nine to be made up for 4 FF7 characters, 3 Nintendo characters, Crono and Mega Man?

It's not like we really have a choice in the matter.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:06:26 PM | Message Detail
Seems to me everybody in these series of topics have wanted an excuse to throw Sonic out of the Noble Nine for two years. I still consider him the favorite.

Well, actually, most people want an excuse to toss the whole category.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:06:57 PM | Message Detail
It's not like we really have a choice in the matter.

We don't, but my lord would that ever suck.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:07:24 PM | Message Detail
Besides; Squaresoft characters that aren't from FF7 have put up disappointing numbers so far. Do you really want the Noble Nine to be made up for 4 FF7 characters, 3 Nintendo characters, Crono and Mega Man? At least with Solid Snake and Sonic we had some variety.

It's not that we want it but from the looks of it, it seems that way..

This is GameFAQs, where Nintendo and Square (Mainly FFVII) rules..

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:08:23 PM | Message Detail
?

Vyse doesn't have to drop under Laharl in order for Tifa to lose to Sonic. Why do you say that?
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:10:08 PM | Message Detail
**** all the stats and all the matches so far.. Mario for SC2K5 champ!!!

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:12:10 PM | Message Detail
Vyse doesn't have to drop under Laharl in order for Tifa to lose to Sonic. Why do you say that?

Sonic would get 79%+ on Laharl. If Sonic > Tifa, and Tifa gets 78% on Vyse, Vyse drops under Laharl.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Kratos vs. Diablo - Bracket: Diablo - Vote: Kratos (22/25)
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:13:41 PM | Message Detail
Oh, you're talking like, decimals there. I don't really think dropping a tenth of a point under Laharl is really worth noting. They may as well be equal in that case. And Laharl could be weaker this year too so it's no big deal.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:14:35 PM | Message Detail
And Tifa's boobs could be giving her the otherwise apathetic vote so I'm not TOO worried. Though beating Sonic is and always has been a possiblity.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: chronicfreeze | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:17:10 PM | Message Detail
1. The one good thing about Tifa beating Sonic is that it will show that everybody dislikes Aeris as much as I do, and that Tifa owns her.

2. Is the VA for Robin from that crappy fake anime the same guy who did Lloyd in ToS?
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"Siiiiiinging in the rain, I'm siiiiiiiiinging in the rain!"
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:18:22 PM | Message Detail
2. Is the VA for Robin from that crappy fake anime the same guy who did Lloyd in ToS?

Yes, Scott Menville.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 24/27 points
Current Match Prediction: Luigi vs. KOS-MOS
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:21:36 PM | Message Detail
Oh, you're talking like, decimals there. I don't really think dropping a tenth of a point under Laharl is really worth noting.

No, but Vyse being Laharl's equal IS worth noting.


As for the talk about what Tifa'll get on Luigi, I'll note that, in all likelyhood, will get less than the 71.57% projected. I'll quote myself from this morning...

"Last, for those holding on to see Tifa/Luigi (assuming Luigi beats KOS-MOS), please keep in mind the following matches: Luigi/Squall, Bowser/Yoshi, Cloud/Bowser, Link/Samus, Yoshi/Luigi, Link/Yoshi, and Luigi/KOS-MOS. It's been argued that Link had gotten some minor SFF on Samus, and Luigi/Squall was in Samus's eight-pack. It's also been argued that Bowser got some minor SFF on Yoshi...then it's been argued that Bowser's SMB-sprite cost him votes against Cloud in Cloud's best year. From there, let's go into 2k4: Yoshi/Luigi made for about a 2% bigger spread than expected (goin' by memory here), so Yoshi (already possibly SFF'd from 2k3) could have SFF'd Luigi (who could of have SFF'd through Link/Samus). Yoshi then gets decimated by Link, and the adjusted 2k4 stats use 2k3 Yoshi to base his four-pack off of, I believe. For tomorrow's Luigi/KOS-MOS match, let's not forget that she's had a new game since last year, so judging Luigi by her from 2k4 may not be the best move, either...

...what I'm gettin' at here is this: I don't believe in all of those arguements myself, but there's alot of possibilities that Luigi could be stronger than we once thought. Add to it that Nintendo in general has been looking stronger than usual, and Luigi will not be the best to judge Tifa by; if anything, Tifa will be best to judge Luigi by if she happens to lose before FF:AC is released. VYSE, meanwhile, has shown in the two contests he's been in (which is the same amount for Luigi, mind you) that he was consistant from our last two contests and hasn't been behind any type of SFF. If you're goin' to wait to judge Tifa, you'd be better off waiting until her big match against Sonic; I think today's match is just fine to get the idea that she's gonna beat Sonic though."
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:28:12 PM | Message Detail
Why not? People act like being consistent for a couple years means that a character will remain consistent forever. What about Link? What about Knuckles? What about Ryu?

Those particular characters could receive games that make them move up or things that make them move down. In Vyse's case, I cannot see someone with such a cult following ever moving up a lot or moving down a lot. He might move, but I wouldn't imagine it even being 1%, for better or for worse. Just because Tifa is putting up these numbers does not mean that Vyse, for no reason at all, took a drop after being in the contest during its most popular year and during one of its least popular years.

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Cloud Strife: What’s going to happen to the Planet?
Sephiroth: That… will be for you to decide.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:31:06 PM | Message Detail
Hmmm... it may be a bit off-topic regarding the current discussion, but where did we get the notion that 2K2 Link = 2K3 Link? Seems to be one of those things we just plugged in to make everything pretty.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:31:20 PM | Message Detail
Vyse doesn't have to drop under Laharl in order for Tifa to lose to Sonic. Why do you say that?

Sonic is projected to get 78.76% against Laharl. If Tifa were to lose to Sonic, Vyse would be dropped equal or under Vyse, which is ridiculous.

The drop, in percentage, that he would suffer is 3.67%.

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Cloud Strife: What’s going to happen to the Planet?
Sephiroth: That… will be for you to decide.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:39:24 PM | Message Detail
Well technically Sonic can beat Tifa with less than 52ish percent and have Vyse still technically remain higher than Laharl. Albeit barely.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:41:00 PM | Message Detail
Barely isn't good enough.
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:41:44 PM | Message Detail
It is for me. Vyse is old. He's been replaced with Tales of Symphonia as the new Gamecube RPG flavor! =D
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:42:24 PM | Message Detail
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/14/2005 10:31:06 PM | #217
Hmmm... it may be a bit off-topic regarding the current discussion, but where did we get the notion that 2K2 Link = 2K3 Link? Seems to be one of those things we just plugged in to make everything pretty.

You ask creativename. He did all the calculations to confirm the standards dictated by gut instinct were right, and they were.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:47:35 PM | Message Detail
Chaos Division Round 1 - Match 28 – (2)Luigi vs. (7)KOS-MOS

Luigi
Game/Series Known From: Super Mario
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: N/A
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 30th (25.24%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2004: 41st (16.62%) Adjusted Value: 30th (22.96%)
Seed in 2002: N/A
Seed in 2003: 3
Seed in 2004: 4
Lost in 2003 to Squall in Round 2
Lost in 2004 to Yoshi in Round 2

Weegi makes it back, and is once again over-seeded. Luigi, we can already see you getting upset.

KOS-MOS
Game/Series Known From: Xenosaga
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: N/A
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 36th (22.96%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2004: 21st (22.60%)
Seed in 2002: N/A
Seed in 2003: 7
Seed in 2004: 8
Lost in 2003 to Samus in Round 2
Lost in 2004 to Ryu in Round 1

One of the strongest video game characters out there is back, and looking as beautiful as ever.

Well, this might very well be the last close match of Round 1, unless a certain Loser shows us wrong. Until then though, we have Luigi and KOS-MOS. Let’s start this ride.

Could this be another match Ceej got from the X-Stats? In the Adjusted X-Stats, these two characters are right next to each other. They weren’t too far from each other in 2003 too. That’s when they both had their Contest debuts. Luigi lost to Squall in Round 2 with 40% of the vote, while KOS-MOS lost in the match right after barely getting 30% on Samus. Squall then went on to lose to Samus in a 58-42 match. Luigi ended up looking a little stronger that year, but 2004 was a different story.

KOS-MOS was out early. She lost in Round 1 to Ryu, and only got 38% of the Fighter. Luigi made it to Round 2, but lost against the other Mario side-kick, Yoshi in a 55-45 match. Yoshi then received SFF against Yoshi, and that hurt Luigi bad. In the end, KOS-MOS didn’t end up looking too bad, while Luigi did. After all the adjustments, the two ended up nearly equal. And now we reach the match.

I have Luigi winning here. KOS-MOS could pull off the upset, but I doubt she will. Luigi isn’t weak, but he isn’t like his brother either. Luigi wasn’t adjusted for SFF against Yoshi, even though they’re from the same series and everything. This means he could be looking a little weaker than he really is. KOS-MOS only chance to win is that if Xenosaga 2 helped her out. It did nothing for Albedo, so I doubt it will do much for her. So much for a Tifa/KOS-MOS match picture in Round 2…

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Luigi will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Luigi: 58% - KOS-MOS: 42%



Soul’s Analysis

What a great first round match-up. CJayC deserves props for this one.

What do you do when you're two midcarders that are very close to each other in that X-Stats? Well, why not put them in a first round match and eliminate as many brackets as possible? That's exactly what CjayC did.

You've all know Luigi. He's Mario's brother. KOS-MOS is from the Xenosaga series. I have never played the game, and I have absolutely no clue if she's a hero, a villain or an NPC. All I know is that she has had a new game come out since last contest.

Yeah, new game = Boost right? And since they were so close to each other before, Luigi is in trouble, right?

Fear not fellow Luigi fans. Your green machine of a sidekick should win this match. Basically, since stats can't tell you anything in this match, you need to find other areas of strength. So, how would Luigi be better then KOS-MOS you ask?

Side them up beside each other. Who do you believe is more recognizable? A somewhat cult KOS-MOS, or Mario's brother Luigi?

Most people, I believe, would choose Luigi in this predicament. Therefore, I went with my gut instinct and chose the green plumber.

My prediction: Luigi wins with 57.61% of the vote. Mario? MAAAAAARIIOOOOOOO!
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:48:03 PM | Message Detail
Ulti’s Analysis

(Special note from Ulti: due to me having to take care of a bunch of wedding stuff, my analyses are going to be very lax and short until the end of August, possibly even later. Sorry in advance.)

(Special note from Moltar: Hiiiiiiiii! ^^)

Even if they are close in the Xsts, I doubt KOS-MOS can win. But that's just a guess, given that the stats have proven to be crap in this contest.

Prediction: Uigi with 52.42%



Outback’s Analysis

How is Luigi so weak? How is Luigi so weak that a side character in one of a large library of relatively unimpressive RPGs strong enough that Luigi needs to worry about this match? It's disgusting, but at least Luigi will come through here.

Luigi with 52.11%



Inviso’s Analysis

Now, last year, after adjusting for SFF, both of these characters ended up being mid carders. Not strong enough to be considered contenders, but not weak enough to be considered fodder. In fact, in the x-stats, Luigi ended up one spot higher than KOS-MOS, their percentages separated by .36%. And since then, KOS-MOS has had Xenosaga 2, while Luigi has had absolutely nothing other than a cameo in Super Mario 64 DS. And people have been saying that’s a reason he’ll beat Tifa. Not a chance. When it comes right down to it, Luigi is Nintendo; he is a Mario brother, while KOS-MOS is a robot girl from a non-Square RPG. That’s enough to know who’ll win this match, sadly. It’s almost disgusting to know that every Mario character in this contest has a very good chance of making round 2. Oh well, at least this one will be beaten by Tifa.

My Bracket: Luigi Mario
My Vote: KOS-MOS
My Prediction: Luigi Mario with 54.67%



Tnote’s Analysis

Mmm… TJF at its finest. On paper, one would think Luigi would run away with this. But on actual paper, the X-Stats say it should be a really slobber-knocker. Common sense tells me Luigi will have no issues defeating freakin’ KOS-MOS, who I believe is the strongest RPG character not from a Square game. Nice destination for the Namco robot with the kickin’ curves, but in the end it will not be enough to overthrow the brother Mario.

Pick: Luigi with 54.83%



Vlado’s Analysis

Last year's adjusted stats had these two exactly next to each other... But, we saw that Nintendo's on the rise, and Xenosaga Episode II didn't sell very well at all... Regardless, KOS-MOS got an amazing Xenosaga II picture and I would say she looks even better on it than she does usually. All that while Luigi got one of the least heterosexual looking pictures he could... If KOS-MOS doesn't win under these circumstances, I don't know what could help her.

Let me reiterate that Nintendo's on a huge rise this contest... I doubt KOS-MOS has gotten much stronger than last contest, and, while Luigi has no reason to have increased, either, he'll surely benefit simply from being a Nintendo character. It kind of pains me to analyze this particular match, and I really hope that I don't guess the winner right. If KOS-MOS does manage to win, it will be a great day for the contest, but I'm afraid this is not likely. Either way, however, unless Luigi's popularity has like doubled, I don't think the winner here could really give Tifa a hard time. Luigi's one of the weakest 2nd seeds, with just Lloyd and Revolver Ocelot being potentially weaker.

Predicted percentage: Luigi with 54.85%.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:49:17 PM | Message Detail
Match 28: (2) Luigi Mario vs. (7) KOS-MOS

Past Performances

Luigi Mario


Summer 2002
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Summer 2003
Beat Ratchet, 74.54% - 25.46%
Lost to Squall Leonhart, 39.79% - 60.21%
Ranked: 30th

Summer 2004
Beat Pac-Man, 67.73% - 32.27%
Lost to Yoshi, 45.52% - 54.48%
Ranked: 41st

Spring 2005
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

KOS-MOS

Summer 2002
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Summer 2003
Beat Crash Bandicoot, 61.98% - 38.02%
Lost to Samus Aran, 30.25% - 69.75%
Ranked: 36th

Summer 2004
Lost to Ryu Hoshi, 37.87% - 62.13%
Ranked: 21st

Spring 2005
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Analysis

I’m quickly losing faith on the x-st and I won’t be using them as much anymore and won’t refer as much as I did before, but I still will since they sometimes predict thing correctly (not as much as this contest though).

I’m surprised that this match didn’t get much hype; even though I think Luigi could win easily I wouldn’t be surprised if KOS-MOS pulls out with the win. I guess the reason is that over 90% of the board took Luigi as the winners and the ones that took KOS-MOS are being very quiet and hope that their upset wins. Using 2k4 adjusted we have Luigi going 50/50 with KOS-MOS, but we didn’t take account for Yoshi/Luigi SFF and from 2k3 we possibly could’ve had Bowser/Yoshi SFF and Link/Samus SFF which cancelled everything out. IMO we are better off using 2k3 numbers, at least they were in the same half division and with that Luigi wins handily (around 55/45).

KOS-MOS has the new Xenosaga game that came out, but from what I’ve heard it wasn’t as good as the first and KOS-MOS’s match picture is from her new game. I don’t think KOS-MOS will gain such as boost from it, but if anything she’ll at least become stable. Like Tifa, KOS-MOS has potential TJF, but since we’re only seeing her back it probably won’t help her and if pictures do make a difference this won’t be helping her.

Remember when we couldn’t play as Luigi on Super Mario 64, well you can with the new DS version. SM64 was probably when Mario and Luigi separated from almost having the same popularity. If Luigi was in Super Mario 64 (and Super Mario Sunshine) he will most likely be a noble 9 contender, but he wasn’t and was betrayed by Nintendo and turned into a wimpy type of character. The DS will probably not help him, but at least he didn’t get his scared look picture.

Because of so many different potential SFF matches last year and in 2k3 that put Luigi and KOS-MOS really close together, but if we looked at their eight-pack in 2k3 Luigi easily has the advantage here. With all of the matches I’ve seen I wouldn’t be surprised if KOS-MOS did end up winning, unless it was with more then 60%. Sadly with todays match no matter how well these characters do tomorrow they probably have little to no chance in winning. One more thing, Tifa vs. KOS-MOS: the ultimate TJF match, flapping day and white sticky underwear day.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Luigi Mario over KOS-MOS

charmander6000’s Prediction: Luigi wins, 55.84% - 44.16%

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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:54:29 PM | Message Detail
Heh, funny. Everyone's banking on Luigi's name recognition. As a matter of fact, if it weren't for Luigi being a freaking legend, the BOP would be a lot closer for that match. Of course, that never stopped him from doing worse than Jill against Squall, but... whatever.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: kungfu chicken | Posted: 8/14/2005 9:08:02 PM | Message Detail
outback has no clue what hes saying. Side character in a series? Shes the main character in two games. although there will be more.
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*pacing back in forth waiting for: advance wars ds, twilight princess, ffxii, kingdom hearts 2, castlevania dos*
From: The Raven 2 | Posted: 8/14/2005 9:17:53 PM | Message Detail
I was thinking about this the other day, and I'll post my thoughts on who I've considered to be most/least impressive in each completed division for round 1...

Mushroom Division
Most Impressive: Zero
Zero nearly doubled Ryu Hayabusa in his first match of this contest, which proves he could hang with the likes of Sora, Jill Valentine, and Alucard (though most of us already knew that). With his killer 2003 performance against Sonic, you can pretty much chalk up a victory against Lloyd Irving, and I'll be interested to see how he does against Mario. If Shadow can break 40% on him, I think Zero can as well.

Honorable Mention: Mario
He's the only other person worth mentioning here, although a win against a character who hasn't appeared in five years doesn't impress me at all.

Biggest Letdown: Carl Johnson
San Andreas is a game you practically hear everywhere outside Board 8. From VG Award shows to the Hot Coffee scandal, nearly half the contest brackets had CJ taking Ness out with ease. Ness proved them wrong and got 55% on CJ. CJ's not Tommy Vercetti by any means necessary.

Honorable Mention: Lloyd Irving
It's already bad enough that he's overseeded, and his performance against Wesker proves it as the ToS swordsman failed to break 55% on a character who got beat worse by Kefka than anyone else. In round 2, Lloyd's gonna put his head between his legs and kiss his own ass goodbye against Zero.
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Only on GameFAQs can Kuja lose to a hand, Wesker lose to a clown, and Ocelot lose to a turtle.
From: The Raven 2 | Posted: 8/14/2005 9:24:24 PM | Message Detail
Zebes Division

Most Impressive: Samus Aran
What else can I say here? Samus aimed and blew Yuri into pieces. Samus shows why she's winning her division.

Honorable Mention: Auron
Auron's nearly-tripling victory is somewhat of a small feat. If they had used a pic of *SPOILER* MGS3's Naked Snake, I believe it would've been closer.

Biggest Letdown: Frog
Simply put here, Frog just cannot win with a blowout, even against Riku. I understand the likes of Master Chief, Liquid Snake, and his loss to Solid Snake, but the amphibian should've had at least 55% on this guy.
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Only on GameFAQs can Kuja lose to a hand, Wesker lose to a clown, and Ocelot lose to a turtle.
From: TheGreatMaster | Posted: 8/14/2005 9:28:04 PM | Message Detail
Alright, I've been gone for a week (the last match I was here for was Terra vs. Dante). I see Knuckles won, which totally screws my bracket (though that's still pretty awesome). Anyone want to run through the notable events of the past six days? What were the boards like when Knuckles beat Magus?

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/14/2005 9:28:53 PM | Message Detail
Tifa's projected to get 71% against Luigi at this point? I'll believe it when I see it. I'd be surprised if she got half way there. I think now that we have a bracket based on the stats, we're going to see how truly wacky they really can be.

*jumps on anti-stats bandwagon*
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Raiden fact of the post: According to the true stats, Snake would've blown out every opponent in 2k3 with over 65% of the vote based on round 1.
From: The Raven 2 | Posted: 8/14/2005 9:32:58 PM | Message Detail
Gear Division

Most Impressive: Zelda
Yeah, so it is for Twilight Princess, but nearly getting 60% against FF9's most well-known character is something worth bragging about. Prepare in round 2 as Zelda might break 40% on Solid Snake.

Biggest Letdown: Kratos
Well, it's plain and simple here. Although I knew Alucard was going to win from the start, there's always some overrated #3 seed in every contest. Duke Nukem, Serious Sam, Gordon Freeman, Tommy Vercetti, Luigi, Super Metroid, Ryu Hayabusa, Albedo, and now Kratos. When it comes down to it, the only #6 seeds Kratos could possibly beat in this contest are Vyse and Laharl.
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Only on GameFAQs can Kuja lose to a hand, Wesker lose to a clown, and Ocelot lose to a turtle.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/14/2005 9:36:14 PM | Message Detail
Tifa's projected to get 71% against Luigi at this point? I'll believe it when I see it. I'd be surprised if she got half way there.

It's fine to argue whether or not she'll break 71%. Technically, I suppose it's okay to argue she won't break 60.5% on Luigi...but I find it very unlikely she'll fall under a doubling. Should Luigi happen to do better than 30%, I'm gonna give more credit to Luigi (or KOS-MOS) being stronger than expected instead of Tifa being over-estimated through Vyse.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: The Raven 2 | Posted: 8/14/2005 9:38:30 PM | Message Detail
Most Impressive: Bowser
The man was close to doubling Chun Li in his first match. After seeing Ryu's performance against Rikku, I'm more confident in my Bowser > Ryu pick, although I'd love to be wrong thanks to my undying hate for Bowser.

Biggest Letdown: Ryu (sorta, I guess)
As much as I hate saying this, this truly proves the power Square has on this site (right up there with Nintendo). Ryu achieves only a mere 55% on one of FF's worst characters out there. Like I said, Bowser > Ryu's looking more and more like reality every day, but my vote's going to the street fighter.
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Only on GameFAQs can Kuja lose to a hand, Wesker lose to a clown, and Ocelot lose to a turtle.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/14/2005 9:41:15 PM | Message Detail
When it comes down to it, the only #6 seeds Kratos could possibly beat in this contest are Vyse and Laharl.

Hayabusa and Chun-Li aren't out of his reach, you know. Hell, I haven't done the math for myself, but I would think Vercetti, Knuckles, and Yuna would sweat a lil' too (though ultimately win). The only 6-seed he didn't have a shot against was the one he drew, Alucard.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/14/2005 9:41:18 PM | Message Detail
x-stats have their glitches, but they have their moments of being accurate.

Question, how much is the generally accepted margin of error for x-stat based predictions, anyway...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Ed_Bellis | Posted: 8/14/2005 9:42:40 PM | Message Detail
I would think Kratos would be considered a winner. No, he didn't win his match, but he put up a better fight than I think many on the Board thought possible.
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Huh-CHA!
From: The Raven 2 | Posted: 8/14/2005 9:43:01 PM | Message Detail
Oops, the last analysis was for Dream Division. Anyway...

Flood Division
Most Impressive: Crono
Although FF9 isn't truly popular, tripling the FF9 lead character is something worth bragging about.

Honorable Mention: Donkey Kong
Even with a bad pic, DK makes a fool out of Sam Fisher. Then again, Sam's only win was against Gordon Freeman. Go figure.

Biggest Letdown: Kefka
After a somewhat modest performance in Spring (thanks to a super easy division, minus Diablo), 65% of the brackets though Kefka would take out Vercetti. This match proved that Vercetti > CJ.

Honorable Mention: Master Chief
Not only is he an X-Box character, but he did the second worst performance against CATS.

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Only on GameFAQs can Kuja lose to a hand, Wesker lose to a clown, and Ocelot lose to a turtle.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/14/2005 9:43:45 PM | Message Detail
Question, how much is the generally accepted margin of error for x-stat based predictions, anyway...

I think 2%-3%, though I think some people give up to 4%.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/14/2005 9:51:49 PM | Message Detail
Hell, I know my argument has no grounds as far as stats are concerned, and I'm just going to drop it now because well... random ranting isn't going to help my case at all. This is just my "common sense" (I quote it for a reason) talking. I'll bring it back up next round. Tifa will not even come close to 70% on Luigi.

I'm looking forward to Tifa/Luigi next round, now. That's one thing good about this Vyse maiming, at least.
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Raiden fact of the post:
From: The Raven 2 | Posted: 8/14/2005 9:53:50 PM | Message Detail
Final one for a few days, since Chaos isn't complete...

Devil Division
Most Impressive: Knuckles the Echidna
The man simply put Magus in his place. Looking at the stats of Knux's past opponents and Magus's past opponents, this could prove to be a strange turn of events for pairing up characters. For example...

Knuckles defeated Magus 50.86% to 49.14%
Magus defeated Ganondorf 50.3% to 49.7%
Sephiroth defeated Ganondorf 58.17% to 41.83%
Sephiroth defeated Bowser 59.55% to 40.45%

Okay, that somewhat proves that Knuckles could hang in there with the likes of Bowser and Ganondorf as well. This match may as well be the biggest upset in the history of GameFAQs as only 35% expected Magus to lose to a non-Noble Niner.

Honorable Mention: Vincent Valentine
*digs grave, throws Kerrigan in it* Vincent pretty much buried any chance that MASS KOREANS had of making this match a close one. I'll wait until round 2 to do further judgement on the man.

Biggest Letdown: Magus Zeal
Before this match, Magus's biggest victory was against Ganondorf, because wins against Sam Fisher and Luca Blight aren't saying ****. His two losses were to Noble Nine characters Link and Crono. However, not many people saw this coming, as he was outdone by Knuckles.

Honorable Mention: Sarah Kerrigan
Not even Blizzard could help her, AND this Blizzard character got tripled. The bigger question here is, is Kerrigan simply fodder or is Vincent a ****ing powerhouse? Like I said, I'll wait until Vincent/Dante to make any more discoveries.
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Only on GameFAQs can Kuja lose to a hand, Wesker lose to a clown, and Ocelot lose to a turtle.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/14/2005 10:00:49 PM | Message Detail
Tifa Lockheart 78.01% 72281
Vyse 21.99% 20378
TOTAL VOTES 92659

Back over 78% for Tifa.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 10:01:20 PM | Message Detail
Heh, funny. Everyone's banking on Luigi's name recognition.

Well, in a match that's already projected to be close, that should give him the bracket advantage, which should be enough to keep KOS-MOS from pulling the upset.

Hmmm... it may be a bit off-topic regarding the current discussion, but where did we get the notion that 2K2 Link = 2K3 Link?

I think it was done because it keeps Mario constant.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Tai | Posted: 8/14/2005 10:12:17 PM | Message Detail
Did I tag up?

*tags*
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PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (219 Signs!)
From: Heroic Dr Wily | Posted: 8/14/2005 10:13:48 PM | Message Detail
Every match in the Devil Devision could be called with an impressive winner/loser except Squall/Geno.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/14/2005 10:28:53 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/14/2005 10:29:32 PM | Message Detail
You know, I just realized that we have an unexpected variable for Auron/Ganondorf:

It's poll 2101. Now CATS will hijack the poll and take Auron's place, proving once and for all that he is indeed stronger than Ganondorf.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 8/14/2005 10:31:58 PM | Message Detail
In Summer Contest 2005 Poll 2101 was beginning...
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 8/14/2005 10:32:55 PM | Message Detail
When does the Sprite round usually begin? I think it's round 3, but I'm not too sure.
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
*Waiting for Guru winner's sig*
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/14/2005 10:40:12 PM | Message Detail
Hmmm... it may be a bit off-topic regarding the current discussion, but where did we get the notion that 2K2 Link = 2K3 Link?

Least Squares.

When does the Sprite round usually begin? I think it's round 3, but I'm not too sure.

Round 3.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
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