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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 204
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:28:32 PM | Message Detail
Right now, Tifa is slightly above Samus at this point. Samus is projected to get 77.31% on Vyse.

Tifa's takin' down the Hedgehog. <3

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Cloud Strife: What’s going to happen to the Planet?
Sephiroth: That… will be for you to decide.
From: FourthDeus | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:29:18 PM | Message Detail
And here comes HM to spread his communist LIES.
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5/18/05
Never forget. Never forgive.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:31:00 PM | Message Detail
For Tifa to not beat Sonic, Vyse would have to take what is assuredly the worst drop in the history of the contest.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:31:45 PM | Message Detail
Heh. I think it'll be quite the match to see either way. I'll be on the minority's side in that match however.

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Cloud Strife: What’s going to happen to the Planet?
Sephiroth: That… will be for you to decide.
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:33:03 PM | Message Detail
Vyse would drop to near LAHARL.

Again, not happening.
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:33:47 PM | Message Detail
I'm expecting people will be going with the "Oh, any playable FFVII character would do this" excuse to make Sonic still seem to be the favorite, which I don't buy for a second.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:34:07 PM | Message Detail
I do NOT wanna see Sonic go down to Tifa. I like her, but it'll hurt me deep to see the hedgehog lose...and I feel hopeless about Sonic winning against her.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: chronicfreeze | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:35:13 PM | Message Detail
HM, you are the biggest FF7 fanboy I have ever known. You support any single character from it with no exceptions, it is quite pathetic for somebody who generally has varied taste. Z-OMG is Tifa going to be on your Top 10 Characters next time?
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"Siiiiiinging in the rain, I'm siiiiiiiiinging in the rain!"
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:36:01 PM | Message Detail
Did people buy Samus defeating (or challenging) Link and Cloud with the numbers she put up against Lara and Sam Fisher last year?
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:36:10 PM | Message Detail
Great... Crono vs Tifa in the Final Four, with Tifa winning? >_<

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2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
World Champion: Gyruss, Link's Awakening, Mega Man X, Solstice, Super Mario World, Zombies Ate My Neighbors
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:36:33 PM | Message Detail
Hmm. I can't say she would. I like at least three other FFVII characters more than her.

---
Cloud Strife: What’s going to happen to the Planet?
Sephiroth: That… will be for you to decide.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:37:20 PM | Message Detail
"Great... Crono vs Tifa in the Final Four, with Tifa winning? >_<"

Doncha mean Vincent vs Tifa with Vincent winning?
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:37:57 PM | Message Detail
Did people buy Samus defeating (or challenging) Link and Cloud with the numbers she put up against Lara and Sam Fisher last year?

Her opponents dropping would make all the sense in the world, considering they were Sam Fisher and Lara Croft. Are you honestly trying to tell me that Vyse, who has remained static for the two years he has been in this contest, is going to drop by amounts that put him below the very character he beat last year?

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Cloud Strife: What’s going to happen to the Planet?
Sephiroth: That… will be for you to decide.
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:38:27 PM | Message Detail
But Vyse has proved to be consistent, those two haven't.
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:38:43 PM | Message Detail
Did people buy Samus defeating (or challenging) Link and Cloud with the numbers she put up against Lara and Sam Fisher last year?

Well, people certainly got excited about it. I don't remember if anyone actually bought into it.

Great... Crono vs Tifa in the Final Four, with Tifa winning? >_<

It might be Vincent vs. Tifa, actually. Depends on how close they are.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:39:05 PM | Message Detail
I think it's not so much his fanboyism for FF7 as it is his disliking for Sonic; I'm almost positive he is apathetic at best to him and his series.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:39:55 PM | Message Detail
Actually, there was a time when Sonic was higher than Mario on his favorites list. I don't know what happened to that though.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:40:46 PM | Message Detail
Actually, I think Leonhart's argued that Sam is pretty consistant; it's just that he was over-rated in 2k3 due to Link/Magus. I think Lara's legitimately dropped though.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:41:41 PM | Message Detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1749

Anyone who thinks that Tifa vs. Vyse matters at all is completely insane. Before that match, Lara was projected to get 58.3% on Vyse. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the 2k5 ratio is exactly the same.

And if anyone thinks 2k3 Lara was overrated...she was measured through Zelda, who now seems to be underrated, which makes Samus's performance even more impressive.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:42:29 PM | Message Detail
Sam Fisher predicts Magus pretty well. I don't imagine he's had any large fluctuations. Fodder generally doesn't, for the most part.

Note: Lara Croft wasn't considered fodder until last year. I doubt she would have moved too much if she were in the contest this year.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:43:17 PM | Message Detail
Anyone who thinks that Tifa vs. Vyse matters at all is completely insane.

...Why doesn't it?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:43:38 PM | Message Detail
she was measured through Zelda, who now seems to be underrated,

Zelda very likely increased in 2004, she merely was not present in the actual contest. It makes sense all things considered.

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Cloud Strife: What’s going to happen to the Planet?
Sephiroth: That… will be for you to decide.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:44:14 PM | Message Detail
Zelda 2k3 and Zelda 2k5 is NOT the same Zelda. That's all I have to say about that.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:44:45 PM | Message Detail
Before that match, Lara was projected to get 58.3% on Vyse. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the 2k5 ratio is exactly the same.

So...Samus > Cloud?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:46:03 PM | Message Detail
Actually, I think Leonhart's argued that Sam is pretty consistant; it's just that he was over-rated in 2k3 due to Link/Magus.

I didn't use the term 'overrated,' but that's basically what I meant. For whatever reason, it makes sense for Sam Fisher and Lara Croft to be either drop or, in Fisher's case, be overrated. Those two have a case for not being as strong as they were, but Vyse has proven to remain pretty much the same in the two years he's been in the contest. It doesn't make very much sense at all for him to suddenly drop out of nowhere.

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Cloud Strife: What’s going to happen to the Planet?
Sephiroth: That… will be for you to decide.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:46:38 PM | Message Detail
For Tifa to not beat Sonic, Vyse would have to take what is assuredly the worst drop in the history of the contest.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2014

For Sephiroth to get less than 60% on Bowser, Liquid would have to take what is assuredly the worst drop in the history of the contest.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:46:41 PM | Message Detail
Did people buy Samus defeating (or challenging) Link and Cloud with the numbers she put up against Lara and Sam Fisher last year?

I think she lost her steam after her match against Sora. Once she faced Sonic and didn't put up Cloud numbers against him, everyone knew what was going to happen next.

But I know exactly what you're getting at yoblazer... I myself find it hard to believe that Lara dropped that much do to a loss of popularity. What was so big about her in 2k3 to make her drop that much after 2k2, when there wasn't nearly as large off a drop after 2k3?

Don't get me wrong, Tifa is definitely the heavy favorite against Sonic. I'm just not as quick to jump to conclusions as others in this topic.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:46:52 PM | Message Detail
Are you honestly trying to tell me that Vyse, who has remained static for the two years he has been in this contest, is going to drop by amounts that put him below the very character he beat last year?

No, I just think people are overreacting a bit. For all intents and purposes, Samus did the exact same thing last year. Sure, people got excited about it, but nobody truly believed she had a shot at Cloud. Now, as another female character is having an eerily similar performance (granted, against a traditionally consistent character), people are not only giving her a good shot against Sonic, but are calling her the clear favorite going into the match. Seems a bit silly to me.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: chronicfreeze | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:47:33 PM | Message Detail
Yea, last year, or maybe it was even the Spring, Sonic was in his top 10.

I literally wouldn't be surprised if he would vote any FF7 character over any character in the contest, including Mario, Mega Man, and Samus. I like you, HM, but you are going a bit overboard with the FF7 bandwagon these days >_>
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"Siiiiiinging in the rain, I'm siiiiiiiiinging in the rain!"
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:48:09 PM | Message Detail
For Sephiroth to get less than 60% on Bowser, Liquid would have to take what is assuredly the worst drop in the history of the contest.

And then it turns out that Liquid was overrated all along. The drop doesn't look quite so big compared to where he actually seems to be.

And Vyse doesn't have the problem of being overrated. He faced Cloud last year.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:51:24 PM | Message Detail
Her opponents dropping would make all the sense in the world, considering they were Sam Fisher and Lara Croft. Are you honestly trying to tell me that Vyse, who has remained static for the two years he has been in this contest, is going to drop by amounts that put him below the very character he beat last year?


Why not? People act like being consistent for a couple years means that a character will remain consistent forever. What about Link? What about Knuckles? What about Ryu? There's plenty of evidence that their current values are completely different from their 2k2 values, despite Link being consistent from 2k2 to 2k3, and the others being consistent from 2k2 to 2k4.

So...Samus > Cloud?

I never said that. All I said was Lara 2k3 > Lara 2k4, and Vyse 2k4 > Vyse 2k5.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:51:30 PM | Message Detail
Or maybe Vyse suffered RPG SFF against Cloud? Heh.
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:52:21 PM | Message Detail
But Vyse has to drop lower than Laharl to lose to Sonic now. That's just ridiculous.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:53:13 PM | Message Detail
Or maybe Vyse suffered RPG SFF against Cloud? Heh

Vyse 2003 is relatively equal to Vyse 2004. It's unlikely.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:53:29 PM | Message Detail
But Vyse has to drop lower than Laharl to lose to Sonic now. That's just ridiculous.

So answer me this. If Tifa loses to Sonic, and not in a nailbiter, will you decide Vyse must have dropped, or will you stop taking the stats to such specifics?
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:54:25 PM | Message Detail
Mac, you seem to be confused. See, fodder or near-fodder does not rise or drop dramatically, especially after they have been almsot the same two years straight and have had no new releases. You're suggesting that Vyse drops below Laharl, whom he beat last year with over 60%. Not happening.

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:54:26 PM | Message Detail
People act like being consistent for a couple years means that a character will remain consistent forever. What about Link? What about Knuckles? What about Ryu?

All mainstream characters with lots of fans. There's more of a possibility for big fluctuations. Vyse's fanbase is small and cult. The odds of him moving very much is slim.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:54:42 PM | Message Detail
I agree about Vyse again; Tifa/Vyse is as good as any match to see her strength, barring something very unusual and unforeseen happening with Vyse from 2k4 to today. He doesn't get any fabled RPGSFF since he's considered through Cloud last year, he did fair enough against Donkey Kong, and he beat a fodderific Laharl...so we've seen him through three different kinds of opponents and he looks to have suffered none from it (I basically stole this whole sentence from somebody earlier today and I forgot who; props to you, whoever ya are). If Cloud was able to be accurately judged through Vyse and no SFF of any kind took place, and Vyse was oh-so-steady from 2k2 to 2k3...then why, anybody who believes Tifa will lose to Sonic, will Tifa/Vyse be so vastly different that Sonic will manage to beat Tifa?

Riddle me that.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:54:53 PM | Message Detail
And Vyse doesn't have the problem of being overrated. He faced Cloud last year.

So? That doesn't mean he has to stay constant forever.

But Vyse has to drop lower than Laharl to lose to Sonic now. That's just ridiculous.

Lara dropped lower than Laharl, and she was way stronger than Vyse. How's Vyse taking a smaller drop ridiculous?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:55:30 PM | Message Detail
So answer me this. If Tifa loses to Sonic, and not in a nailbiter, will you decide Vyse must have dropped, or will you stop taking the stats to such specifics?

At this point, I doubt I'll have to worry about it. Yes, the stats aren't 100% transitive. I get it. They ARE relatively accurate though.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:55:40 PM | Message Detail
No, I just think people are overreacting a bit. For all intents and purposes, Samus did the exact same thing last year. Sure, people got excited about it, but nobody truly believed she had a shot at Cloud. Now, as another female character is having an eerily similar performance (granted, against a traditionally consistent character), people are not only giving her a good shot against Sonic, but are calling her the clear favorite going into the match. Seems a bit silly to me.

Why??? People were getting excited about Samus beating Cloud who doubled Sonic .. We are just suggesting that Tifa's the favorite against Sonic.. It doesn't seem the bit silly to me at all although I am not buying into that much right now..


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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:57:32 PM | Message Detail
I hope you all know I was using sarcasm.
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:57:40 PM | Message Detail
At this point, I doubt I'll have to worry about it. Yes, the stats aren't 100% transitive. I get it. They ARE relatively accurate though.

I asked what would you think IF Tifa loses to Sonic, as I'm curious which view you will adopt.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:58:25 PM | Message Detail
If it was something worth considering, I'd consider it. At this point, I don't think it's something that'll happen.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:59:02 PM | Message Detail
Why??? People were getting excited about Samus beating Cloud who doubled Sonic .. We are just suggesting that Tifa's the favorite against Sonic.. It doesn't seem the bit silly to me at all

People were getting about Samus, yes, but no one truly believed she could beat Cloud regardless of those insane numbers she put up. Given the opportunity, how many people do you think would have changed their finalist from Cloud to Samus last year? I'd say a few at the most. Given the opportunity, how many do you think would change their division winner from Sonic to Tifa right now? Judging from what I've read today, I'd easily say at least half the board.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:59:40 PM | Message Detail
Considering Tifa stays at 77.85% on Vyse by the end of the match, what if she expected to get on Luigi?

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:00:40 PM | Message Detail
I myself find it hard to believe that Lara dropped that much do to a loss of popularity. What was so big about her in 2k3 to make her drop that much after 2k2, when there wasn't nearly as large off a drop after 2k3?

For what it's worth, I think Lara was comin' hot off of a new movie in 2k3. From there, I think Crash dropped in 2k4...so maybe Lara did too, as a sign that former PSX mascots are fading away?
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:00:56 PM | Message Detail
I'm not too sure, Luigi could be underrated slightly.
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:02:17 PM | Message Detail
Wasn't Lara 2k3 before Angel of Darkness came out? Alot of people thought the game could revive her before it actually came out and sucked.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 7:02:22 PM | Message Detail
Considering Tifa stays at 77.85% on Vyse by the end of the match, what if she expected to get on Luigi?

71.57%
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
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