Well, she's pretty much stronger than Sephiroth right about now..
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus

Indeed. And if you are trying to say that is false, you are clearly fighting a losing battle.

Unless you are talking about a series of close matches, which means even individual results may differ from themselves if simply repeated under the same circumstance, transitivity will hold.

It is possible that this would not hold for individuals, but when dealing with populations of any sufficient size, this will hold. There has never been any empirical evidence against transitivity, and I can basically tell you flat-out that there won't ever be any such evidence.

This is just the way that population dynamics work.

The only thing that would violate transitivity is basically "reverse SFF", to such an extent that it would cause the "weaker" character to actually defeat the stronger one. This is a purely speculative situation that we've never seen hints of.

I've posted on this before, probably better than I'll manage here.

If you view the winner of the bracket as being at the top of a pyramid of matches, transitivity applies "vertically", but not "horizontally". You need linearity to make comparisons horizontally.

The example I gave was that of Link vs. Mega Man and Cloud vs. Samus last year. Link beat Cloud. Thus, transitivity implies that Link would beat Samus. It implies nothing at all about Mega Man vs. Samus. Using linearity, you can conclude that Samus would defeat Mega Man.

Combine transitivity and linearity, and you conclude that anyone who ranks higher than another character (using linear extrapolation) will defeat that other character. You have a straightforward set of relationships between characters: this is a single-factor model, rather than a matrix of relationship pairs between each character. Thus, the x-stats are very similar to the Beta coefficient in the capital asset pricing model. The Beta of a stock attempts to relate a stock to the stock market as a whole, rather than have a covariance matrix that relates each individual stock (or, more generally, asset) to every other individual stock (or asset).

Also note that transitivity does not apply across years. It only applies intra-year, by definition. It order to apply the standings across years you have to make the further assumption of stable strengths (in other words, a single strength value, rather than another dimension in the matrix%u2014this one relating strengths to years), which is obviously another false assumption. Though for analytical purposes usually works out alright. And in most (but obviously not all) cases where it doesn't, there tends to be analytical reasons for it, that are discussed beforehand.


>>

I didn't plan to argue that transitivity isn't true. I just wanted to make sure that I shouldn't. But thanks. :P

Anyway, yeah, I'm doubting the idea of linearity, not transitivity. I just don't think it's worth counting on in this contest.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

BTW, this is ******* crazy. I LOVE IT!
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

I'm happy that I like both characters in question for once when a surprise like this comes up...

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<_<

So if Tifa were to defeat Sonic.... would she then double Megaman?

I'm guessing she would!

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Smurf , the cream of Knuckles Fanboyism
Now Playing: Tales of Symphonia (again), Burnout 3 (still), Loz:Minish Cap

Smurf, only Link can double MM.

And maybe post-AC Cloud.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

I think Tifa's gains have stop for the night vote, she'll pick up pace once the day arrives...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

Imagine her bracket support..
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus

If Megaman declines as I predict, he will be open to another selection of characters to be doubled. Namely Cloud,Tifa and Sephy.

And is this really a suprise? Who has played FF7 and can honestly say that Sephiroth was a better character then Tifa?

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Smurf , the cream of Knuckles Fanboyism
Now Playing: Tales of Symphonia (again), Burnout 3 (still), Loz:Minish Cap

Another thing about transivity is that, in addition to there being no empirical evidence of violations, there really isn't much theoretical reason that it would ever fail.

If you view things visually, you can see why this would be so rather evidently.

I'm not sure if I can communicate this visual representation properly, but I shall try.

Image a simple 2-dimensional graph. The x-axis is some factor; say, it ranges from "casual strength" on the one end to "cult strength" on the other (though it could really be any factor; e.g., whether the person is a Square fan, or whether they where glasses). The y-axis is the "strength" of a character, in terms of the probability that a person on that point in the sample (e.g., the casual/cult factor) will vote for this character.

One possible way the graph could look is as follows (note that this will not look like it should because of formatting; but I hope the intent comes across):

X
XXX
XXX
XXX
XXXX
-------
1234567

Say that each X represents 20% in strength. Thus, at the left end of this factor (subset 1), people are 100% likely to vote for the character in question. At the other end (subsets 5, 6, 7), they are 0% likely.

Now, another character's distribution (the o's above the X's represent empty space):
oX
oX
XX
XXXXX
XXXXX
-------
1234567

If these two characters were to face each other, Character A wins subsets 1 and 3. Character B wins subsets 2, 4, 5, and 6. Say that subset 7 is a tie; people from that subset will split the vote 50/50, as they have no clear preference. In this example, Character B wins with about 64.3% of the vote. Even though in terms of "total support"—the number of X's each character has—both are equal with 14.

One can view SFF visually here easily. Two characters can both have large numbers of X's; but, one dominates the other character at each subset, in terms of preference. Even if it's just by a single X, he wins that subset (or vote, if you want to see the subsets as individual votes). SFF thereby leads to exaggerated results. Where SFF is an example of two characters sharing a similar strength distribution according to some factor.

Reverse SFF on the other hand is difficult to picture here, and seems unrealistic.

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www.SC2K5.com
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Tjfa is doing about 2% better than Cloud at this point. I doubt she'll receive as large a day vote spike, but if so... watch out.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

whether they where glasses

Or even wear them, for that matter...
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

I would say that this is really Tifa's peak performance, because I don't think she could have a better picture.

Her pictures in later rounds probably won't be as good.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

I'd like to see her get AC artwork though...She looks great in that.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

Agreed. That picture is almost universally recognizable and it showcases her huge breasts nicely.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

I say the only way to REALLY make sure if she's this strong is her Luigi match.
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus

I think Tifa's AC art might actually hurt her, if anything.

She was most well known for her twin pillows in FF VII, and she doesn't have that in her AC art.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

I'd like to see her get some "Unofficial" pics.

~_~

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Smurf , the cream of Knuckles Fanboyism
Now Playing: Tales of Symphonia (again), Burnout 3 (still), Loz:Minish Cap

I say the only way to REALLY make sure if she's this strong is her Luigi match.

Of course. The stronger the opponent, the easier it is to gauge a character's strength. It's why people were better able to gauge Cloud's strength in 2k3 in his match against Sonic than in his match against CATS.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Who has played FF7 and can honestly say that Sephiroth was a better character then Tifa?

Someone who played it years ago, who has forgotten most of the plot details but remembers the trail of blood, the skewered Midgar Zolom, and the Kalm Flashback?
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"If you want Bells & Whistles, I suggest you attend the Circus."--Lance F'n Storm

I'd like to see her get some "Unofficial" pics.

Take your pick. There's literally about a million to choose from.
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Moisten your dreams with man urine.
http://www.geocities.com/nicklegends/ - All the Legends of the Hidden Temple info you could possibly want.

Hm. The updater on sc2k5 is messed up. And I'm going to bed.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

While it's not important, I'd just like to note that my visual example of a 2D graph earlier was highly over-simplified, and in actuality we'd be dealing more with multi-dimensional curves of strength. (with the additional dimensions representing the various factors you could isolate the population by; some of which would be important, most of which would be rather trivial in terms of how they differ from the general population)

And the ratio of votes would be related to the difference in the integrals of the curves. i.e., the ratio between the total area where one character is above the other, to the area where it is the other way around.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

What is the issue with the updater?
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

"And the ratio of votes would be related to the difference in the integrals of the curves"

Tifa wins!
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

XD

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.

What exactly does VFL mean anyway? Vercetti FLoor or something?
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[Player] A bunch of JP just trained me!
[GM] Well you're still here, so they obviously didn't do it right. LBSJ

Vyse fodder level if I remember correctly, it's the level from where on you're considered fodder.

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As much as I want to put something original about the Guru Contest here, I can't, because Yoblazer owned me way too hard.

Tifa is absolutely decimating; I almost feel like I have no choice but to believe it'll be Tifa facing Crono, not Mega Man or Sonic. It doesn't help that Sonic didn't look all that impressive against Jin and that Mega Man will under-shoot most people's projections due to no 20XXF and C:L&R being released.

For those saying Vyse isn't good to judge Tifa off of (or even other characters in general), I say hold on; Vyse was very steady/accurate from 2k3 to 2k4 (and, if anything, he barely gained last year). Also keep in mind last year that Cloud faced Vyse last year...I won't say that there never has or never will be general RPGSFF, but Cloud/Vyse wasn't an example of it, so I refuse to believe Tifa is.

Last, for those holding on to see Tifa/Luigi (assuming Luigi beats KOS-MOS), please keep in mind the following matches: Luigi/Squall, Bowser/Yoshi, Cloud/Bowser, Link/Samus, Yoshi/Luigi, Link/Yoshi, and Luigi/KOS-MOS. It's been argued that Link had gotten some minor SFF on Samus, and Luigi/Squall was in Samus's eight-pack. It's also been argued that Bowser got some minor SFF on Yoshi...then it's been argued that Bowser's SMB-sprite cost him votes against Cloud in Cloud's best year. From there, let's go into 2k4: Yoshi/Luigi made for about a 2% bigger spread than expected (goin' by memory here), so Yoshi (already possibly SFF'd from 2k3) could have SFF'd Luigi (who could of have SFF'd through Link/Samus). Yoshi then gets decimated by Link, and the adjusted 2k4 stats use 2k3 Yoshi to base his four-pack off of, I believe. For tomorrow's Luigi/KOS-MOS match, let's not forget that she's had a new game since last year, so judging Luigi by her from 2k4 may not be the best move, either...

...what I'm gettin' at here is this: I don't believe in all of those arguements myself, but there's alot of possibilities that Luigi could be stronger than we once thought. Add to it that Nintendo in general has been looking stronger than usual, and Luigi will not be the best to judge Tifa by; if anything, Tifa will be best to judge Luigi by if she happens to lose before FF:AC is released. VYSE, meanwhile, has shown in the two contests he's been in (which is the same amount for Luigi, mind you) that he was consistant from our last two contests and hasn't been behind any type of SFF. If you're goin' to wait to judge Tifa, you'd be better off waiting until her big match against Sonic; I think today's match is just fine to get the idea that she's gonna beat Sonic though.


With that rant done, I'm gone to bed. G-nite ya'll.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

My Tifa over Sonic pic is starting to look very good. I kind of wish I put her over Mega Man, too.
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

...the hell? I expected something like 70%... but... 79%?!? BETTER THAN SAMUS' PROJECTION?!?

HOLY **** HOLY **** HOLY ****
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

Finals: Samus vs Tifa/Vincent... <_<

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.

I'm thinking people are going to be distrustful of this result because they're expecting, "Well, Tifa's from FFVII and nobody knows Vyse, so she's getting franchise votes." Well...

Would Ganondorf and Zelda perform like Link against Vyse? Take that into consideration.

And it looks like Tifa's starting to drop a bit in percentage. Perhaps she has a stronger night vote than the rest.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

What I'm amazed at is, if Tifa was such a powerhouse from the start, then why did she miss every contest until now?
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

Random BOP statistics: Only 5 brackets out of 152 picked Tifa to beat Sonic, and ABSOLUTELY NONE to see Megaman. Can we have not one, but TWO upsets no one saw coming in this here tournament?
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

I got Tifa to be around 44% on Cloud. She could win the contest with that power.
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/

Could this also be an indication of Vincents strength?
---
Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised anymore to see Vincent getting close to 65% on Dante.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

I'd say Tifa could be somewhat stronger; do you really see Vyse losing to Kerrigan?

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.

Again, I don't know why everyone is so surprised. Why can it not be that we're seeing the contest return to the ilk of 2k3, where FF7 simply DOMINATES? At this rate, I'd take Cloud over Link, easy. Vincent over Crono and Tifa over Sonic are looking mighty nice as well...but I'd like to see them both over something that isn't complete fodder before I say anything certain (although we do have a lock on Vyse).
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I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon

I also can't see Vincent being weaker than Tifa. I'd stake anything that the SFF would go to him if they faced in the Final Four.
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I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon

Odd, I can't see Vincent being stronger than Tifa.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

My Tifa over Sonic pic is starting to look very good. I kind of wish I put her over Mega Man, too.

Well, if you thought she could beat Sonic, you should of put her over MM as well.
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus

Odd, I can't see Vincent being stronger than Tifa.

Why not? Him being optional is all that really hurts him, in theory. On the plus side, he has the 'coolness' factor that Sephiroth so benefits from, he transforms into monsters in battle, and he carries around a huge ****ing gun. And in virtually every poll I've seen (and this is talking about off-site ones, as well), he's the fan favorite.
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I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon

Tifa carries around TWO huge ****ing guns. The end. ;)
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

"Random BOP statistics: Only 5 brackets out of 152 picked Tifa to beat Sonic, and ABSOLUTELY NONE to see Megaman. Can we have not one, but TWO upsets no one saw coming in this here tournament?"

Didn't send my bracket into the BOP this year, but I have Tifa over Mega Man for the guru contest.:p

What I'm amazed at is, if Tifa was such a powerhouse from the start, then why did she miss every contest until now?

'Where's Tifa?' was something I was asking myself ever since 2k2.

While this is a great performance by Tifa, I can't call her the favorite...not yet. I think it's a bit unfair to judge Sonic on his match against Jin (who definately proved to be stronger than Terry), I wanna see what does against Diablo first, someone we have seen in battle many times before.

Oh, no doubt Tjfa will be a significant casual draw, but it won't do as well against the likes of Vincent, who along with Sephy have made a career out of sexually confusing FF7 fans.

As an aside, the only thing that has me still putting faith in Link is Zelda's performance. Ganon was a bit underwhelming for me, but Zelda really took the cake against Vivi. Still, if Ganondorf loses to Auron and Zelda loses to Snake, then I'm not going to have that much faith in Link beating Cloud anymore.
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I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon

2005-08-14 05:45:00 14238 3844 78.74% 21.26% 18082 10394
2005-08-14 05:40:01 14048 3787 78.77% 21.23% 17835 10261
2005-08-14 05:35:00 13843 3721 78.81% 21.19% 17564 10122
2005-08-14 05:30:01 13636 3651 78.88% 21.12% 17287 9985
2005-08-14 05:25:01 13435 3605 78.84% 21.16% 17040 9830
2005-08-14 05:20:01 13252 3544 78.90% 21.10% 16796 9708
2005-08-14 05:15:00 13049 3495 78.87% 21.13% 16544 9554
2005-08-14 05:10:00 12869 3444 78.89% 21.11% 16313 9425
2005-08-14 05:05:00 12694 3382 78.96% 21.04% 16076 9312
2005-08-14 05:00:01 12517 3327 79.00% 21.00% 15844 9190


Will she be able to Quad Vyse?? Her percentage is dropping quite steadily..


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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka