I remember seeing that 43% of all marriages in the United States end in divorce.

Yeah, but all the others end in DEATH.

---
"Those people who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do." ~ Isaac Asimov

I'm going to bed.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Going to bed alone. All alone.

<_<
---
Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

Well, we still have no way of knowing what Aeris would have done if she was in the contest this year. Maybe this has something to do with the Advent Children hype (though I'd be surprised if it was extremely significant).
---
ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?

Well, we still have no way of knowing what Aeris would have done if she was in the contest this year. Maybe this has something to do with the Advent Children hype (though I'd be surprised if it was extremely significant).

If this is true, and this goes together with Zelda's increase do to TP, Link/Cloud is looking to be a doozy!
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

This match is signalling the true death knell of my bracket. Once Tifa shreds Sonic, I'm completely done, argh.
---
[Player] A bunch of JP just trained me!
[GM] Well you're still here, so they obviously didn't do it right. LBSJ

This match is signalling the true death knell of my bracket. Once Tifa shreds Sonic, I'm completely done, argh.

*sigh*

I think we should not have any official XStats released this year.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

Released? They aren't something that's released; they are merely something that is calculated.
---
.nS) quote of the week:
"I don't know how to work the machine. I just act like I know what I'm doing, and people tip me." - syst

There seem to be people crying "overreaction!" here, and certainly this Tifa overperformance is untrustworthy to an extent.

But really, if your basis for thinking Tifa is now overrated is because you can't see Sonic beating Tifa, I am highly dubious of that logic. I, and others, stated multiple times that Tifa>Sonic was a good "strategy" pick. After Vincent it looked even better. Now it looks like Tifa should be the straight-up favorite, and most likely by the time the match rolls around, she will be the favorite.

Which shouldn't be that much of a surprise. This is Tifa. From Final Fantasy VII.

Nothing is assured of course, and Tifa could flop against Sonic and not even get 48%; but how many here would really put money on that, at this moment? Not most, I would think.
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Released? They aren't something that's released; they are merely something that is calculated.

I mean put up on a website for everyone and their mother to see.
---
"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

because you can't see Sonic beating Tifa

Other way around, no?
---
Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

because you can't see Sonic beating Tifa

^* Meant "can't see Tifa beating Sonic".
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

But really, if your basis for thinking Tifa is now overrated is because you can't see Sonic beating Tifa, I am highly dubious of that logic.

My basis for thinking Tifa is now overrated is because I can't see her beating Samus, and by the end of this match, Cloud.
---
"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

Sonic better poll though...

Forget it Tifa wins, Sonic characters are killing me in this contest. v_v

---
*Dances, trips and falls* XP

Owned.

<_<
---
Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

79.48%...how are the vote totals looking?
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

You know what, maybe, just maybe, the casuals are more aware of how this contest works than we are willing to give them credit for.

Maybe they DO know that Cloud and Seph are NOT in the main bracket, so they throw all of their support to Tifa and Vincent, making both of them looking stronger than they're supposed to.

I really wish Aeris is also in this contest, because then I can confirm or disprove that possibility.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

There is good reason to think Tifa wouldn't equal Samus, and certainly not Cloud. Even if she matches Cloud's performance against Vyse she would still clearly be a massive underdog in a match with Cloud (at this moment in time).

With Sonic, that's not the case.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Tifa is doing excellent.

Looks as though Vincent is being shown up a bit here...

---
<_<

79.48%...how are the vote totals looking?

Set to break 100K.
---
"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

Oh wait, my bad. Set to undershoot 100K.

Squall vs Geno had 5261 at this time.

---
"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

I'm facing the scary realization that my entire Final Four could be wrong...
---
Hail to the Queen of Blades.

Samus however is somewhat debatable. I personally would not pick her over Samus right now and I doubt most would. But, this is Tifa we're talking about. Not some cult scrub. So it wouldn't be beyond the realm of reasonable conceivability for Tifa to be able to beat Samus.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Looks as though Vincent is being shown up a bit here...

Um, and how? We still have zero clue as to Kerrigan's strength, other than "fodder-like".
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Hail to the Queen of Blades.

Um, and how? We still have zero clue as to Kerrigan's strength, other than "fodder-like".

Which is exactly why he's being shown up.

Though, this match isn't really causing the stir that Vincent did. Because that match had hype, whereas this was always a foregone conclusion.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Samus however is somewhat debatable. I personally would not pick her over Samus right now and I doubt most would. But, this is Tifa we're talking about. Not some cult scrub. So it wouldn't be beyond the realm of reasonable conceivability for Tifa to be able to beat Samus.

I'll go with taking the stats with a grain of salt. You can maintain that they are mostly accurate if you want. And I think Sonic vs Tifa will show which of us is right anyway. ^_^
---
"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

Do you really need to look at the stats to think Tifa>Sonic is highly possible?

IMO all you have to do is look at the URL on your browser.
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Heh, I'm not calling for a Tifa overreaction... I'm just being wary of making conclusions after the first round.

I wouldn't mind one bit if Tifa beats Sonic. I already said I heavily debated whether she could take him out or not. She's my favorite FFVII character by far. I already know what Sonic can do in this contest, so I wouldn't mind if he bowed out early to someone else I liked. I hope Tifa is a powerhouse capable of winning the whole main bracket!

It would be GREAT to see her win the main bracket and then take out Sephiroth in the Tournament of Champions. Between Knuckles taking out Magus and that happening, I wouldn't know how to contain myself.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Um, and how? We still have zero clue as to Kerrigan's strength, other than "fodder-like".

I said "a bit", and I thought about adding a "may be", but I really do add to much of that in.

And I somehow think that performing between Samus and Cloud is slightly more impressive than getting 79% on a character that may or may not be as strong as Vyse. If Kerrigan is, then it is certainly similarly impressive. But since we do know Vyse's strength, I thought that this looks more impressive, at least in the short run.

---
<_<

Do you really need to look at the stats to think Tifa>Sonic is highly possible?

IMO all you have to do is look at the URL on your browser.

I'm not calling the stats into question so much as the whole concept of transitivity and linearity being true. The stats are just the most noticeable byproduct.
---
"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

Erm, Vyse is also "fodder-like". Hence the derivation of the VFL as the benchmark for where fodder begins. We know Kerrigan isn't going to be Diablo type strength (unless the impossible occurs and Vincent>Cloud...), but other than that we have no clue. She could potentially be as strong as Vyse, or at least this contest's incarnation of Vyse. Which is why I asked, given the presence of complete unknowns, why this counts as Tifa showing Vincent up.
---
Hail to the Queen of Blades.

79.72% She's about to crack 80%...
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

And you think we know Vyse's strength? Heck, this match all but guarantees either a massive lack of transitivity or a drop in Vyse's strength. She has a percentage right now that took Cloud six and a half hours to reach.

Heck, if Tifa is showing anybody up it's Cloud.
---
Hail to the Queen of Blades.

Thank goodness Mario isn't at the bottom half..

>_>
<_<
---
"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus

From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/14/2005 4:03:27 AM | Message Detail | #080
I'm not calling the stats into question so much as the whole concept of transitivity and linearity being true. The stats are just the most noticeable byproduct.

Transitivity by itself is true for all practical purposes; linearity can be roughly accurate but is obviously false. Thus the combination of transitivity and linearity, which is the x-stats, is roughly accurate but theoretically false. They are a method of simplification of a complex situation. The utility of the x-stats comes from their ease of use, and having good accuracy relative to low cost (in terms of analytical effort).

You can a large amount of data, that represents a great deal of complexity, in a simple numerical/visual ranking. Which is fairly easy for humans to deal with.

That ease of use includes ad hoc adjustments (e.g., SFF adjustments, or retroactive adjustments like those proposed for Magus vs. Link), which kind of go against the reductionist/simplying philosophy of the x-stats, but can be very useful in and of themselves.

You can try to apply more large-scale adjustments too, but those would be much more difficult than ad hoc adjustments.
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Transitivity by itself is true for all practical purposes; linearity can be roughly accurate but is obviously false. Thus the combination of transitivity and linearity, which is the x-stats, is roughly accurate but theoretically false. They are a method of simplification of a complex situation. The utility of the x-stats comes from their ease of use, and having good accuracy relative to low cost (in terms of analytical effort).

You can a large amount of data, that represents a great deal of complexity, in a simple numerical/visual ranking. Which is fairly easy for humans to deal with.

That ease of use includes ad hoc adjustments (e.g., SFF adjustments, or retroactive adjustments like those proposed for Magus vs. Link), which kind of go against the reductionist/simplying philosophy of the x-stats, but can be very useful in and of themselves.

You can try to apply more large-scale adjustments too, but those would be much more difficult than ad hoc adjustments.

For clarification, transitivity would imply that if A beats B directly, and B beats C directly, A should beat C directly, correct? I want to make sure I understand the terms before I start trying to debate with you over this.
---
"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

Regarding Tifa...

One should remember that Cloud got 66% on Sonic. That happened; it's history.

There is a very large range that Tifa can fall in below Cloud and still, frankly, kick Sonic's ass.

I'm not entirely convinced she'll beat Sonic, let alone easily; but it's not far-fetched by any means.
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

...I think we can all agree now that furniture from FFVII could only be matched by Furniture from Zelda. o_O

This is more impressive than what Vincent did to Kerrigan, as of know.

---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.

well, right now, i am really kicking myself for switching out of my FF7 influenced bracket......... =(

---
"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."

...I think we can all agree now that furniture from FFVII could only be matched by Furniture from Zelda. o_O


Ganondorf's organ would PWN in that...
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

All I know is that I won't be betting against FFVII until...

*scans bracket*

Um...hmm. Let me get back to you on that one.
---
ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?

I know this has been mentioned many times before, but the final four could very well be Samus, Zelda, Vincent, and Tifa.

---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.

what does anyone think of Cloud vs. Link at this point? don't forget that it will be shortly after Advent Children is released.

i'm not 100% certain that Cloud will win it, but after seeing Vincent and Tifa in action, i am certainly glad that i at least kept Cloud as my TofC winner.

---
"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."

I'm happy with my Link pick.

---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.

Its still up in the air. TP and AC definitely seem to be favoring their respective characters. It will make for an interesting tourney the rest of the way...
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

Cloud vs. Link is something that's always up in the air no matter what the previous matches might say.

But this clearly speaks favorably for Cloud.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Discussing the contest with people not from this topic can be so painful sometimes.
---
I need to put something here.

From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/14/2005 4:13:10 AM | Message Detail | #086
For clarification, transitivity would imply that if A beats B directly, and B beats C directly, A should beat C directly, correct? I want to make sure I understand the terms before I start trying to debate with you over this.

Indeed. And if you are trying to say that is false, you are clearly fighting a losing battle.

Unless you are talking about a series of close matches, which means even individual results may differ from themselves if simply repeated under the same circumstance, transitivity will hold.

It is possible that this would not hold for individuals, but when dealing with populations of any sufficient size, this will hold. There has never been any empirical evidence against transitivity, and I can basically tell you flat-out that there won't ever be any such evidence.

This is just the way that population dynamics work.

The only thing that would violate transitivity is basically "reverse SFF", to such an extent that it would cause the "weaker" character to actually defeat the stronger one. This is a purely speculative situation that we've never seen hints of.

I've posted on this before, probably better than I'll manage here.

If you view the winner of the bracket as being at the top of a pyramid of matches, transitivity applies "vertically", but not "horizontally". You need linearity to make comparisons horizontally.

The example I gave was that of Link vs. Mega Man and Cloud vs. Samus last year. Link beat Cloud. Thus, transitivity implies that Link would beat Samus. It implies nothing at all about Mega Man vs. Samus. Using linearity, you can conclude that Samus would defeat Mega Man.

Combine transitivity and linearity, and you conclude that anyone who ranks higher than another character (using linear extrapolation) will defeat that other character. You have a straightforward set of relationships between characters: this is a single-factor model, rather than a matrix of relationship pairs between each character. Thus, the x-stats are very similar to the Beta coefficient in the capital asset pricing model. The Beta of a stock attempts to relate a stock to the stock market as a whole, rather than have a covariance matrix that relates each individual stock (or, more generally, asset) to every other individual stock (or asset).

Also note that transitivity does not apply across years. It only applies intra-year, by definition. It order to apply the standings across years you have to make the further assumption of stable strengths (in other words, a single strength value, rather than another dimension in the matrix—this one relating strengths to years), which is obviously another false assumption. Though for analytical purposes usually works out alright. And in most (but obviously not all) cases where it doesn't, there tends to be analytical reasons for it, that are discussed beforehand.

---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

that many words this late hurt my head. i'm going to bed now.

---
"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."

I'd like to see her crack 80% before going to bed, but they both seem to be slowing down in their vote gaining at this point...Then we'll have to wait to see her take off after the day vote hits...
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*