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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 203
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:08:53 PM | Message Detail
You're right, there is no reason, considering FF7's at times ridiculous strength. Tifa could be anywhere between a bit under Aeris all the way up to Cloud, I don't even know why I'm arguing against the stats so furiously in a stats topic. But in the meantime, tell me a reason why Terra couldn't beat Vyse, thusly putting Dante at Mario's level.

I love going back to Dante, you notice that?
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:09:41 PM | Message Detail
And I'm not buying those who are claiming "any character from FFVII could do this." Just being a playable FFVII character does not guarantee a tripling of Vyse. It's like saying Ganondorf or Zelda would do this because Link would quadruple him. I'm not believing that for a second.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:10:30 PM | Message Detail
Ganondorf and Zelda aren't playable... <.<
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I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:10:45 PM | Message Detail
I love Dante, but there's no way he gianed that much. I would be surprised to see him gain more from DMC3 than DMC2, to say hte least. If he cracks 30% it won't be by a whole lot.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:11:04 PM | Message Detail
But in the meantime, tell me a reason why Terra couldn't beat Vyse, thusly putting Dante at Mario's level.

You just answered your own question. Dante isn't some unknown. We have an idea of his strength, and it's not anywhere near Mario, quite frankly.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:11:32 PM | Message Detail
And no, I will not count SSBM.

*spoilers for OoT*








Sheik would not have nearly the percentage on Vivi that Zelda got.
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I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:12:21 PM | Message Detail
There is no way Dante will get a 5% boost from DMC3.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 23/26 points
Current Match Prediction: Tifa Lockheart vs. Vyse
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:15:02 PM | Message Detail
There's no way Knuckles will beat Magus..

*waits for overrated excuse*
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 25/26
Rank : 20/33793 Today: Tifa Tomorrow : Luigi
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:16:24 PM | Message Detail
Sam Fisher said there was a way. Most of us decided to ignore that.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:21:30 PM | Message Detail
I don't like arguements where we throw one match out as a comeback that's supposed to immediately shut down said arguement.

"But guys, Kefka/Pac-Man!!!". "Yeah, but Kuja lost to a glove!!!". Others, too, but those are the two main ones I hear. Magus/Knuckles is quickly gettin' that way; we have alot of evidence we over-looked to get that conclusion. Sheesh.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:22:17 PM | Message Detail
Well Tifa isn't some unknown either, not entirely. You realize how close this puts Tifa's popularity to Sephiroth? All signs point to that being a falsehood. I know we shouldn't use the "favorite character?" polls as reference, but Tifa tends to get around the same amount as Aeris in those, and gets WAY less than Cloud and Sephiroth, the two front runners. Just look around, why would Tifa suddenly be equal to Sephiroth in popularity... it's not that way anywhere else.

And since when has Vyse put respectable numbers up against a known character? He did okay against Donkey Kong, but DK was never even close to losing the match. He'll never get a chance, but he's gonna do more than beat Laharl to convince me of anything.
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Raiden fact of the post: Raiden loves italics, I do too.
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:22:26 PM | Message Detail
Even using Sam Fisher + the Unadjusted SFF Rankings, Magus STILL was projected to win with 51-52%
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 25/26
Rank : 20/33793 Today: Tifa Tomorrow : Luigi
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:23:37 PM | Message Detail
Sam Fisher said there was a way. Most of us decided to ignore that.

I was a firm believer, but I decided to ignore it after Ganondorf's performance against Sephiroth (but then again I probably would've tooken Magus over Knuckles and have Squall beating both)
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:24:24 PM | Message Detail
51%-52% is well within variations from 2k3 to 2k5 for both Magus and Knuckles.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:25:32 PM | Message Detail
Magus through 2004 Sam Fisher = 24.45 on Link
2004 Knuckles = 26.74

Just look around, why would Tifa suddenly be equal to Sephiroth in popularity... it's not that way anywhere else.

Who said she would be? 2004 Sephiroth still has quite a bit of breathing room above her.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:27:29 PM | Message Detail
with 51-52%

Hate to rain on your parade, but that's hardly a solid victory. I'd just as soon take a match the other way around that ends like that. Just because we get a slight influx in voters every year. (day?) 2-4% is well within the margin of error.
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Raiden fact of the post: Raiden would just as soon take a match with a 60-64% difference the other way.
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:32:14 PM | Message Detail
2004 Sephiroth still has quite a bit of breathing room

Not really, especially in relation to Aeris, whom is a much better comparison when considering Tifa's popularity.
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Raiden fact of the post: Raiden prefers window seating on airplanes.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:33:45 PM | Message Detail
He'd still be plenty enough above her where I would consider upset potential to be minimal, and then there's SFF.

And just because Tifa has more in common with Aeris doesn't mean she'll be closer to her in popularity. Heck, Squall has more in common with Cloud than most characters, and he's nowhere near that level.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:38:44 PM | Message Detail
I wasn't talking about Tifa being "like Aeris". I was talking about relative popularities. Aeris seems to have a similar amount of fans to Tifa. (more haters though) Sephiroth, on the other hand, seems to have much more than either one.
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Raiden fact of the post: Raiden doesn't need no stinking limit bar to preform advanced CQC like Tifa does.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:40:30 PM | Message Detail
Nah, Tifa has more fans that prefer her to Aeris by quite a bit, from what I've seen. They may like both, but in general, many more prefer Tifa.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:40:32 PM | Message Detail
10 klavo777 26 Tifa Lockheart

You know, he just might have made the lot of us look like a bunch of scrubs. >_<
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:42:37 PM | Message Detail
And really, Tifa > Aeris was a foregone conclusion in my book. I seriously considered taking her to the final four, but I figured it'd be way too risky if it didn't pay off, so I went the safe route. I didn't think she'd look this much more popular. Aeris wouldn't do this against Vyse. I'm very confident in that.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:50:30 PM | Message Detail
Plus, even though Cloud and Sephiroth are undisputed as far as having the most list them as favorites, I wouldn't be surprised to see Tifa and Vincent anywhere from 2nd to 4th in the eyes of most of those fans. A "favorites" poll can be deceiving. You don't know how those who vote for their favorite would rank the rest of the characters.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:50:54 PM | Message Detail
That just means Tifa might hold up a bit better against stronger opponents and would SFF the hell out of Aeris, even if you are right. I'm not convinced that the Tifa fans outnumber the Aeris fans so greatly that Aeris is roughly 10% weaker than Tifa on Base Link. Because frankly it just doesn't add up, from what I've seen. This isn't an "exact science" I'm talking about here, I realize that, but are you going to honestly say you believe that Tifa is closer to popularity to Sephiroth than she is to Aeris?

Don't get me wrong, I also think Tifa > Aeris, but not by a very large margin as far a contest strength goes. Not nearly to this extent.

This army of Tifa fans, that also don't like Aeris too much in comparison, has to come from somewhere, I haven't seen em. Also note that Tifa would lose the support of the Aeris fans, that don't like Tifa much in comparison.
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Raiden fact of the post: Raiden would SFF the hell out of Aeris too, we'll see it next contest.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:52:14 PM | Message Detail
but are you going to honestly say you believe that Tifa is closer to popularity to Sephiroth than she is to Aeris?

I honestly wouldn't be surprised in the least, as crazy as it may seem to you.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:53:22 PM | Message Detail
We haven't seen Aeris in two years, who is to say she wouldn't have done better if she were here this year?
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:54:11 PM | Message Detail
This army of Tifa fans, that also don't like Aeris too much in comparison, has to come from somewhere, I haven't seen em. Also note that Tifa would lose the support of the Aeris fans, that don't like Tifa much in comparison.

Well, popularity doesn't work that way. It all depends on how many characters they prefer one of them to. You may find many who prefer Tifa to Sonic but not Aeris. It doesn't mean they don't like Aeris, just less than Tifa and don't support her as strongly. They'd be more inclined to vote somebody else over her.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:59:26 PM | Message Detail
So Squall loses to Knuckles, next round?

=/.
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 25/26
Rank : 20/33793 Today: Tifa Tomorrow : Luigi
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 8/14/2005 2:59:51 PM | Message Detail
HOORAY FOR JOBBING IN THE DEVIL DIVISION!

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~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
Cheer up Emo kids.
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 8/14/2005 3:01:04 PM | Message Detail
My Devil Devision is leet =/

Dante > Terra
Vince > Kerigan
Mags > Knux
Squall > Geno

Vince > Dante
Squall > Magus

Vince > Squall

=/

Now, my Dream Division :(
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 25/26
Rank : 20/33793 Today: Tifa Tomorrow : Luigi
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/14/2005 3:01:55 PM | Message Detail
So Squall loses to Knuckles, next round?

I hope...but it's not likely.

Depends if you believe Squall suffered no SFF against Cloud.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Tifa vs. Vyse - Bracket: Tifa - Vote: Tifa (23/26)
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/14/2005 3:03:58 PM | Message Detail
That's why I said "in comparison". I feel like I'm stealing BigCow's thunder right now, but we've got four relevant cases as far as favorites go in a Tifa vs Sonic match.

1. Tifa and Aeris > Sonic.
2. Sonic > Tifa and Aeris.
3. Tifa > Sonic > Aeris.
4. Aeris > Sonic > Tifa.

Now, given the relative popularities of Tifa and Aeris, from what I observe, I just can't see Tifa gaining enough from group 3 to overcome the amount lost from group 4, especially for the win the stats would project at this point. Around 57% for Tifa? That means more than 10% of the voters have to fall into group 3, considering the loss from group 4.

I'm thinking group 3 and 4 are minorities in the first place. Making this even less likely.
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Raiden fact of the post: The fifth relevant case is Raiden > Sonic, Tifa, and Aeris, but that's 90% of the vote anyway.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/14/2005 3:04:44 PM | Message Detail
I also agree with Tifa > Aeris ought as well being a foregone conclusion; between polls both on and off of GameFAQs showing Tifa > Aeris, being seen earlier in FF7, staying in FF7 considerably longer than Aeris, and having a more appealing character model...I mean, come on. I never said it for certain, but I always thought it'd be the case.

I'm just very intrigued about how Vincent will do now, considering polls both on and off of GameFAQs have him being more liked than Tifa; perhaps Kerrigan is NOT as weak as we once thought.....
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 8/14/2005 3:06:50 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/14/2005 3:10:15 PM | Message Detail
I still want to know why Vyse isn't good enough to judge Tifa by for her match against Sonic when Vyse was good enough to judge Cloud against Link. Vyse was expected to get 18.43% against Cloud in 2k3, and got 18.59% against Cloud in 2k4...

...sounds pretty damn accurate to me.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 8/14/2005 3:11:39 PM | Message Detail
I still want to know why Vyse isn't good enough to judge Tifa by for her match against Sonic when Vyse was good enough to judge Cloud against Link. Vyse was expected to get 18.43% against Cloud in 2k3, and got 18.59% against Cloud in 2k4...

...sounds pretty damn accurate to me.


We're just stunned at how well Tifa is doing. This adds another character possible to win the whole thing.

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Magus screwed my bracket over. Yay!
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 8/14/2005 3:11:39 PM | Message Detail
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/14/2005 11:10:15 PM | Message Detail
I still want to know why Vyse isn't good enough to judge Tifa by for her match against Sonic when Vyse was good enough to judge Cloud against Link. Vyse was expected to get 18.43% against Cloud in 2k3, and got 18.59% against Cloud in 2k4...


Because people need to defend their Sonic > Tifa pick. ^_-
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/
From: andaca | Posted: 8/14/2005 3:11:43 PM | Message Detail
Oh, please let Kerrigan not be complete junk. Vincent, Tifa, please win the contest. For the Swarm!
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Hail to the Queen of Blades.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/14/2005 3:12:00 PM | Message Detail
Because it's hard for some people to believe Tifa = Samus.

Though I have my doubts about putting her that high. I usually don't like to judge strength based off fodder.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Tifa vs. Vyse - Bracket: Tifa - Vote: Tifa (23/26)
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 8/14/2005 3:14:20 PM | Message Detail
It worked for Cloud..Its gonna work for Tifa..

Tifa > = Samus > Crono > Mario > Megaman > Sonic > Snake > = Zelda/Bowser/Ryu

Say Hello to Your New Noble 9!
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 25/26
Rank : 20/33793 Today: Tifa Tomorrow : Luigi
From: andaca | Posted: 8/14/2005 3:15:11 PM | Message Detail
It worked for Cloud..Its gonna work for Tifa..

Tifa > = Samus > Crono > Mario > Megaman > Sonic > Snake > = Zelda/Bowser/Ryu

Say Hello to Your New Noble 9!


Vincent is curiously absent. ^_0
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Hail to the Queen of Blades.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/14/2005 3:16:50 PM | Message Detail
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/14/2005 6:12:00 PM | #489
Because it's hard for some people to believe Tifa = Samus.

Though I have my doubts about putting her that high. I usually don't like to judge strength based off fodder.


Same here. It just feels so wrong... and yet at the same time so right.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/14/2005 3:18:25 PM | Message Detail
Vincent is curiously absent.

As is Clinkeroth.

Seriously, there's a fairly good chance our elite group after this contest looks like Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Samus, Crono, Mario, Tifa and Vincent. Half FF7...
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/14/2005 3:18:50 PM | Message Detail
I'm thinking Tifa wouldn't beat Samus straight up (unless there's a lot of people followign the contest that get caught up in some Tifa hype) but she'd come damn close. One thing to remember, of course, is that the TOC is 2-1 in favor of FF7 characters, some people will not be pleased with that.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 8/14/2005 3:20:26 PM | Message Detail
err Fine =/

Link > = Cloud > Sephiroth > Tifa > = Samus > Crono > Mario > Megaman > Vincent

Look like Sonic and Snake have been bounced :(
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 25/26
Rank : 20/33793 Today: Tifa Tomorrow : Luigi
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 8/14/2005 3:21:01 PM | Message Detail
Hell, Tifa > Samus head up..

When it comes down to it, FF7 > Metroid.
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 25/26
Rank : 20/33793 Today: Tifa Tomorrow : Luigi
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/14/2005 3:21:27 PM | Message Detail
I'm thinking Tifa wouldn't beat Samus straight up (unless there's a lot of people followign the contest that get caught up in some Tifa hype) but she'd come damn close. One thing to remember, of course, is that the TOC is 2-1 in favor of FF7 characters, some people will not be pleased with that.

Yeah, but how many people will really take note of it outside the board?
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 8/14/2005 3:21:27 PM | Message Detail
500
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"Mace isn't even better than Dooku" ~ LightSnake
"Obi-Wan is stronger than Mace" ~ DarthLampe
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/14/2005 3:21:31 PM | Message Detail
Tifa > Vincent.

Tifa's healthy-sized jugs > Vincent's metal arm/claw/whatever.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/14/2005 3:21:38 PM | Message Detail
Oh, Mario 4 life.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
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