Someone brought that up in another topic, so I'm compelled to ask the question here.

Can KH2 boost up Auron enough for him to gain elite status? He's in that tier right under the big boys...
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

It depends on what you think exactly gave them that boost the first time.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Depending on how high Auron is this year, I think he could very well crack into those elite ranks. I don't think he'll need very much of a boost in order to do so. Kingdom Hearts II should do the trick.

---
Cloud Strife: What’s going to happen to the Planet?
Sephiroth: That… will be for you to decide.

Can KH2 boost up Auron enough for him to gain elite status? He's in that tier right under the big boys...

Absolutely. KH outsold FFX. I'm sure of it.
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 23/25. Today: Diablo, tomorrow: Tifa

It's amazing that people are STILL saying Diablo will beat Sonic after this match...

...and yeah, I know there was just a big discussion on transitivity in voting, but hell, this is just common sense.
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I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon

KH2 could easily push Auron into the top 10.

Some fun. What happens in this four-pack?

Kerrigan
Spekkio

King of all Cosmos
CATS
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

CATS > Kerrigan

WTF is Spekkio?
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I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon

That depends if CATS gets a face pic.

The King > Spekkio
or
Face CATS > Spekkio
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters

Wow. A fourpack CATS would win...

And who is Spekkio?
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Depends on what pic CATS gets. I'd say CATS > Kerrigan. If important secondary CT characters like Magus and Frog can't do squat, I can't see how Spekkio can be above low-end fodder.
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani

Spekkio is the master of war from Chrono Trigger.

...Hey, if CT fans voted for Lavos they'd probably vote for anything.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters

Spekkio is the 'Master of War' who teaches your party magic in Chrono Trigger.

What form of Spekkio would they use for the picture, though?
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Huh-CHA!

Oh, had a brain fart. Yeah, Spekkio probably beats Kerrigan handily.

I don't see CATS losing to either, frankly.
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I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon

Kerrigan > CATS

Spekkio is the ever changing little guy in the End of Time in Chrono Trigger.

http://www.rpgamers.info/images/smilies/ct/spekkio.gif

---
Cloud Strife: What’s going to happen to the Planet?
Sephiroth: That… will be for you to decide.

From: Ed_Bellis | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:05:58 PM | #112
What form of Spekkio would they use for the picture, though?

True. If ever there was a case for pic factor...
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

...Hey, if CT fans voted for Lavos they'd probably vote for anything.

Hey, Lavos is awesome!

---
Cloud Strife: What’s going to happen to the Planet?
Sephiroth: That… will be for you to decide.

Bah, Diablo performs much worse than I expected.
Looks like Kefka/Wesker was a fluke afterall.

Btw, this poll is currently competing for the "least popular poll in SC2k5" title.
Of the remaining polls, only Ocelot vs. PAC-MAN has a remote chance at that title.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

But don't tell that to the stat junkies. They cling to their little hobby religiously.

I love you.

And BC, I read that topic. Your example provides four broad categories, when in fact there are likely hundreds. The Xsts may not be transitive (which most people are well aware of but refuse to acknowledge), but you still need a lot of people change their minds and/or a lot of different people showing up to vote to see an A > B > C > A loop. The only case where such a loop is even remotely possible at this point is Mario > Samus > Crono > Mario, and even that's sketchy.

*EarthBound spoilers*













Lucid: Lumine Hall just gave me so much insight into Ness. He's scared out of his mind and feels that he's about to die, doesn't know why he's there, doesn't know what's about to happen to him, yet continues on with his journey to save the universe from Giygas anyway. Because he knows that he's the only one who can, and the whole thing was very emotional. At least, that's how I interpret it. Don't spoil anything for me if I'm wrong.

On a side note, this is why I love Tidus's character so much. He's always going forward and looking for a way to move on, despite everything that happens and despite how afraid he is of the world around him. Good stuff all around.













~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

And BC, I read that topic. Your example provides four broad categories, when in fact there are likely hundreds.

For two matches you have four possible categories according to what matches they agreed with, and for 3 characters you have 6 possible rankings, all of which I included in my topic. If you want to consider all the characters at once, you get a lot more categories. But for only considering one extrapolation case, A vs B vs C, 4 categories, two of which split two ways is enough to cover every case.

My point is that the existing model is necesarily flawed and I think you can improve it by making explicit some of the assumptions about how the voting breaks down.

The Xsts may not be transitive (which most people are well aware of but refuse to acknowledge), but you still need a lot of people change their minds and/or a lot of different people showing up to vote to see an A > B > C > A loop. The only case where such a loop is even remotely possible at this point is Mario > Samus > Crono > Mario, and even that's sketchy.

It's more than just that though. There's the case where A>B and C>B, but you don't know how A compares to C, the well known SFF case. And there's the fact that if you're extrapolating these things across multiple levels your certainty gets progressively lower. It's not just that there could be a loop, it's that the percentage total in a match varies a lot according to how the different groups break down.

And between 64 characters I'd wager the odds are such a loop exists, somewhere in the minor characters if nothing else, we're just never likely to run into it since a lot of similarly strong characters won't face each other.

Assuming transitivity is the simplest assumption you can make and a useful one for getting a ranking like you see there. You just have to keep in mind that the stats get more unreliable the more levels you try to extend them over, and I think it's possible to have a better model in mind when you make explicit what the groups of voters are and how you think they're likely to come down.
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The Insane A-Team: Trivia XII team
Gamefaqs Fanfic Project Archive: http://www.rose-hulman.edu/~newheims/ffproj.htm

Assuming transitivity is the simplest assumption you can make and a useful one for getting a ranking like you see there. You just have to keep in mind that the stats get more unreliable the more levels you try to extend them over, and I think it's possible to have a better model in mind when you make explicit what the groups of voters are and how you think they're likely to come down.

Well yes, but the main cases where that comes up are the rare fodder/fodder matches. The main thing we use the stats for are to gauge and order the stronger characters, and we already know that the weaker ones are out of whack and will likely fluctuate all over the place.

I'd discuss this more, but I have to run to work. Thanks for changing the AIM name without telling me by the way, ye bastard :(

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Can KH2 boost up Auron enough for him to gain elite status? He's in that tier right under the big boys...

Hell no! Auron is and always will be below Tidus (I predict about 46% on Ganondorf).

Squall would be far more likely. But it stills seems odd for a character to get nearly doubled by Snake to come back a few years later and defeat him.

----
Smurf , the cream of Knuckles Fanboyism
Now Playing: Tales of Symphonia (again), Burnout 3 (still), Loz:Minish Cap

Hell no! Auron is and always will be below Tidus (I predict about 46% on Ganondorf).

46% on Ganondorf puts him higher than Tidus.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

BC, I agree that the X-stats aren't exactly transitive, and that the more you extrapolate the less transitive your results become.

But unless you have a strong reason of why A should beat B, then looking at the stats is the only way to go.

Knux vs. Magus is an example for me, I've never played CT, and my Sonic days ended before Knux showed up, so I have no other choice than to look up the X-stats to predict the winner.

As for loops, I honestly doubt such a thing exists.
And should it exists, it'll only be among a group of chars that are so close together any matches between them is essentially a coin toss.

But I'll hold my judgement until Samus vs. Mario plays out.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

my Sonic days ended before Knux showed up

o.0

How??
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

Well yes, but the main cases where that comes up are the rare fodder/fodder matches. The main thing we use the stats for are to gauge and order the stronger characters, and we already know that the weaker ones are out of whack and will likely fluctuate all over the place.

For comparing strong/weak characters it's a safer assumption since the difference is wider. For close matches and weak/weak or strong/strong characters it's neccessarily imprecise.

And like I said in the other topic, rather than thinking in terms of relative strengths of characters, we should be thinking of relative sizes of voting groups. Talking about relative strengths all the time assumes we have a certain type of uniform voting group. By figuring out how the various groups of voters are likely to go for the close cases you can revise the assumptions of the x-stats rather than just trusting them.

I'd discuss this more, but I have to run to work. Thanks for changing the AIM name without telling me by the way, ye bastard :(

I've actually never changed it although apparently it's hard to spell. I just immed you in any case
---
The Insane A-Team: Trivia XII team
Gamefaqs Fanfic Project Archive: http://www.rose-hulman.edu/~newheims/ffproj.htm

o.0

How??

Well, I would assume that means he didn't play beyond Sonic 2.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Well, I would assume that means he didn't play beyond Sonic 2.

Yeah, but how does that happen? If you already have the Genesis for Sonic 2, you'd probably end up with Sonic 3. Unless he sold it or something.
---
"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

But unless you have a strong reason of why A should beat B, then looking at the stats is the only way to go.

That's where I disagree. The outcome of a match is decided by how many people rank the characters a certain way. The x-stats assume that happens transitively. As you see in my topic you can revise that assumption and get what could be a more precise model, basically by replacing one assumption with another.

And a lot of this stuff will never come up because a lot of the matches are strong vs weak characters, particularly early on. For gauging stuff like that just looking at the stats is fine. For figuring out the close matches, you need to figure out what the voting groups are that affected those matches and how they're likely to split their votes
---
The Insane A-Team: Trivia XII team
Gamefaqs Fanfic Project Archive: http://www.rose-hulman.edu/~newheims/ffproj.htm

I never purchased Sonic 3 or beyond myself. I did play them, but I never owned them.

In any event, that might mean that he just didn't like Sonic's games.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

46% on Ganondorf puts him higher than Tidus.

Tidus got 48% on Ganon. This Magus/Tidus being overrated has yet to be proven yet. Kirby should decide that.
---
Smurf , the cream of Knuckles Fanboyism
Now Playing: Tales of Symphonia (again), Burnout 3 (still), Loz:Minish Cap

This Magus/Tidus being overrated has yet to be proven yet

Unless you want to tell me that Knuckles is as strong as Sonic and stronger than the guy who beats him 60/40 every year, it's pretty much proven.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Tidus got 48% on Ganon.

And then Ganondorf went on to have a close match with Magus. Then Magus went on to score 35% on Link. If you believe that Magus is at 35%BL, I have nothing more to say to you.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Yes, but Ganondorf was overrated as well, one would assume. All signs point to him going up, but will he go up nearly enough to match his old position? I still say Auron has to beat Ganondorf to prove it, and I think he will.
---
Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

And like I said in the other topic, rather than thinking in terms of relative strengths of characters, we should be thinking of relative sizes of voting groups. Talking about relative strengths all the time assumes we have a certain type of uniform voting group. By figuring out how the various groups of voters are likely to go for the close cases you can revise the assumptions of the x-stats rather than just trusting them.

Thinking in relative sizes of voting groups are nice and all, but it's an overly complex view that can never be analyzed accurately.

Plus voting groups aren't mutually exclusive from one another, so you'll have to many variables to analyze.

Well, I would assume that means he didn't play beyond Sonic 2.

Bingo, Sonic 1 and 2 are the only ones that I ever got pretty far.

I might have tried the ones after that, just that I never got far enough.

The only time I saw Knux in game is when ke knocked super Saiyan Sonic from under the ground and took all of his chaos emeralds from him while he was spacing out, but I can't remember which game is that, nor did I remember getting far in it.

I also tried playing one of the 3D ones, but I simply made myself dizzy to the point of nearly vomiting.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Well, Ganondorf beating Auron would probably prove it, too...
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

People should keep an open mind about these things and not just all idily accept theories as fact.

There are two theories on this matter. One fact, the other false.

Theory 1

- Magus overperformed aganist Link.
- The 4 pack of Magus,Ganon,Sam and Tidus were all overrated.
- Ganon rose with Link in 2004.
- Shadow somehow overperformed aganist Mario

Theory 2

- There was no major overperformance in Magus v Link.
- Magus dropped slightly from 03-04 (Luca Blight)
- Shadow + Tidus remained consistent with 03.
- Tidus v Megaman was a freak result
- Knuckles gained a lot in 05. (Maybe an increase in Sonic characters in general? or something to do with Nintendo?)
- Sam Fisher dropped a lot between 03 and 04.


^ Both theories have holes in them, so I don't see why the first one is regarded as the more likely one..

---
Smurf , the cream of Knuckles Fanboyism
Now Playing: Tales of Symphonia (again), Burnout 3 (still), Loz:Minish Cap

For the record, this match is currently about 400 behind Lloyd/Wesker, so this might end up as the lowest vote total of the contest. Can't say I'm too surprised though.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Well I'm still not entirely convinced unless Auron gets a superior %age, or unless Kirby beats Tidus handily. It looks like Magus dropped even further than Tidus, actually... heh heh.

That's cute, Kratos has the exact same % as Ridley did at this point. However, Kratos seems to be on the rise, so I think he'll rank higher than Ridley. (thank GAWD)
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

Magus dropped slightly from 03-04 (Luca Blight)

That would be a huge drop, not a slight one.

- Sam Fisher dropped a lot between 03 and 04.

Well, Fisher actually predicts Magus pretty well.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

It looks like Magus dropped even further than Tidus, actually... heh heh.

...Or that Tidus increased from FFX-2...
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

If you believe that Magus is at 35%BL, I have nothing more to say to you.

I believe that Magus' sprite is at 35%BL. Frog's sprite is somewhere around 30%BL, too. Their art isn't, though.

And before someone brings up Luca Blight, look at what kind of game he comes from. A sprite based RPG. If Magus wasn't at his full strength against Luca, then Luca wasn't either.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

If Magus wasn't at his full strength against Luca, then Luca wasn't either.

...What are the odds of a sprite helping Luca Blight, of all people? Regardless, they would cancel each other out and we'll never see Luca with a sprite unless Ceej suddenly makes that in the first round, so that is his full strength, as far as the contest is concerned.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

Theory 1
- Magus overperformed aganist Link.
- The 4 pack of Magus,Ganon,Sam and Tidus were all overrated.
Those two points are the exact same thing. The four pack being overrated is the direct result of Magus' overperformace against Link

- Ganon rose with Link in 2004.
And Zelda seemed to have boosted since 2k3 too.

- Shadow somehow overperformed aganist Mario

Theory 2
- There was no major overperformance in Magus v Link.

- Magus dropped slightly from 03-04 (Luca Blight)
It would have to be a large drop from Magus, Kefka getting a large boost from his picture or Luca Blight taking a huge drop.

- Shadow + Tidus remained consistent with 03.
- Tidus v Megaman was a freak result

- Knuckles gained a lot in 05. (Maybe an increase in Sonic characters in general? or something to do with Nintendo?)
After what Sonic did against Jin, a general Sonic increase isn't particular likely.

- Sam Fisher dropped a lot between 03 and 04.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

I believe that Magus' sprite is at 35%BL. Frog's sprite is somewhere around 30%BL, too. Their art isn't, though.

How a sprite version of the same char can be more than a whopping 10% stronger against BL is totally beyond me.

And I certainly will never buy it.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

...What are the odds of a sprite helping Luca Blight, of all people? Regardless, they would cancel each other out and we'll never see Luca with a sprite unless Ceej suddenly makes that in the first round, so that is his full strength, as far as the contest is concerned.

Yes, but my point was that 13% or so is Luca's real value, and that allows for Sprite Kefka to be a good deal stronger than FMV/Lettuce Kefka, which is consistent with the rest of the theory and keeps Lloyd above Mithos.

There's good arguments for sprites helping Magus, Frog, and Kefka, and a slightly less good argument for sprites helping Crono. I think they make a sizable difference.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

I believe that Magus' sprite is at 35%BL. Frog's sprite is somewhere around 30%BL, too. Their art isn't, though.

I find that a bit hard to believe. Frog and Magus's pictures are about as close as you can get to their sprite without actually being a sprite. I can't see anybody mistaking them for a different character or not being able to recognize who they are, especially not the number of people required for such a huge swing it strength.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

How a sprite version of the same char can be more than a whopping 10% stronger against BL is totally beyond me.

It explains Magus losing to Knuckles. It explains where Ganondorf's TP boost was. It explains Mega Man/Tidus. It explains Sam Fisher. And that's just about all of Magus' matches.

We won't know for sure until Kirby beats Tidus, but I think it's highly plausible.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

I think Luca Blight is too cult for a sprite to make a difference.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna

There's good arguments for sprites helping Magus, Frog, and Kefka, and a slightly less good argument for sprites helping Crono. I think they make a sizable difference.

Terra, Cecil and Kefka I can see. Thier other pictures are very different from thier sprites. Magus and Frog don't have that problem.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Terra, Cecil and Kefka I can see. Thier other pictures are very different from thier sprites. Magus and Frog don't have that problem.

Magus's sprite does not look like Vegeta >_>
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Knuckles the Echidna's road to the Sc2k5 Title!
Round 2: (2)Squall Leonhart