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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 202
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:27:19 AM | Message Detail
I'd love to see Tifa beat the hell of Nintendo's favorite mascot, see also one of the most overrated characters of all time.

And yes, Sonic is Nintendo's favorite mascot. There's nothing quite like watching your biggest competition slowly turn into your *****.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:28:04 AM | Message Detail
Tifa will keep it close, but Samus can still win.

Right now, Samus would be projected to lose with 48%. If Tifa gains a bit in the day, which is likely, Samus will probably end up being projected to get around 46%. How would you still think Samus has any real chance without compromising the stats?
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:28:38 AM | Message Detail
I even caught one person claiming that Vyse must have dropped *sigh* Charmander... I hope you were joking with that. <_<

either she drops in percent or Vyse did drop. I'm not going to believe that she could get so close to Cloud and Sephiroth.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:28:59 AM | Message Detail
And yes, Sonic is Nintendo's favorite mascot. There's nothing quite like watching your biggest competition slowly turn into your *****.

O_O;;;

Go to bed. >>;;;
---
"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: seeraamaazu | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:29:07 AM | Message Detail
I'd love to see Tifa beat the hell of Nintendo's favorite mascot, see also one of the most overrated characters of all time.

Mario?
YOU HAVE NO SOUL!!!!!!!!!!!!

And yes, Sonic is Nintendo's favorite mascot. There's nothing quite like watching your biggest competition slowly turn into your *****.

Oh.
Uh.
Kay.
---
DEFENCE, DEFENCE
"Alas, history is nothing but a lie agreed upon" - Napoleon Bonaparte.
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:29:12 AM | Message Detail
I've been arguing for the longest that the X-stats aren't necessarily linear. A majority of the voters may like Tifa better than Vyse, but it doesn't mean that they like Tifa better than Sonic. The X-stats assume that if a character is less popular than another, then said character will perform worse than the stronger character in a linear fashion. Popularity doesn't work like that... especially with a lesser known character like Vyse.

You are correct that the Extraploated Standings are not perfectly linear. However even with the faulty assumption of linearity, a lot of the results it produces are very accurate.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:29:17 AM | Message Detail
You compromise the stats.... Like I said Samus was projected to have her way with Cloud from BOTH of her first two matches...
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: cyko | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:29:25 AM | Message Detail

Once again, even though Tifa looks really good, this STILL does not mean that she will beat Sonic. I've been arguing for the longest that the X-stats aren't necessarily linear. A majority of the voters may like Tifa better than Vyse, but it doesn't mean that they like Tifa better than Sonic. The X-stats assume that if a character is less popular than another, then said character will perform worse than the stronger character in a linear fashion. Popularity doesn't work like that... especially with a lesser known character like Vyse.


i'll give ya that, mnm. and i suppose it is possible that Vyse is getting hit by a small bit of RPG SFF. *shrugs*

but, if Tifa can beat Vyse by as much as Cloud did, then something ain't stirring the kool-aid, man.

---
"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:29:28 AM | Message Detail
either she drops in percent or Vyse did drop. I'm not going to believe that she could get so close to Cloud and Sephiroth.

Either she drops in percent, Vyse dropped, or we accept the stats are far less accurate than we thought.
---
"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:29:38 AM | Message Detail
Well, if Tifa = Vincent, or Vincent > Tifa, then Kerrigan is definitely not fodder...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:30:24 AM | Message Detail
78.91%

Tifa's breaking 81% easily....
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:30:29 AM | Message Detail
And she's about to crack 79%...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:30:31 AM | Message Detail
Almost 79%

*dies*
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:30:34 AM | Message Detail
*chokes* At this rate, she'll top what Cloud did.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: DBZFIGHTERS | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:30:38 AM | Message Detail
If Luigi gets above 80% against KOS-MOS, does that give him a legitimate chance to upset Tifa?

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Die hard Cubs, Pistons, Patriot and Maple Leaf fan
Owl Squad Member ( ēvē( ēvē )ēvē ) O RLY?
From: cyko | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:30:38 AM | Message Detail
78.91%!!!!!!!!

*passes out*

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"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:30:42 AM | Message Detail
...This is TJF I tell you!

*cries*
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:30:47 AM | Message Detail
0.6% increase. this is hilarious.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:31:15 AM | Message Detail
We can pretty much say that Tifa will be the female Cloud
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:31:32 AM | Message Detail
Right now, Samus would be projected to lose with 48%. If Tifa gains a bit in the day, which is likely, Samus will probably end up being projected to get around 46%. How would you still think Samus has any real chance without compromising the stats?

Tifa would definitly be the favorite, but it's not like being off by 4% is particually uncommon for the Extrapolated Standings.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:32:00 AM | Message Detail
If Luigi gets above 80% against KOS-MOS, does that give him a legitimate chance to upset Tifa?

Yes. You'd better pray that happens.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:32:05 AM | Message Detail
Either she drops in percent, Vyse dropped, or we accept the stats are far less accurate than we thought.

I've throwned the stats out since Magus/Knux, but using a common opponent Tifa is getting way too close to Cloud.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: creativename | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:32:21 AM | Message Detail
All right, I don't seriously believe this, but...what if Tifa can not only defeat Sephiroth, but SFF him?

I doubt she'll win the main bracket, let alone beat Sephiroth. But...
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:32:23 AM | Message Detail

Tifa would definitly be the favorite, but it's not like being off by 4% is particually uncommon for the Extrapolated Standings.


But at the rate she's going, it's highly possible that she could perform as well as Cloud...
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:32:38 AM | Message Detail
If Luigi gets above 80% against KOS-MOS, does that give him a legitimate chance to upset Tifa?

If Luigi gets above 80% on KOS-MOS, he would be a lock to win not only the contest but the ToC as well.
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I need to put something here.
From: Just Some Person | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:32:45 AM | Message Detail
She's about to hit 79%. A quadrupling is in order here, which is quite above my original estimates.

I hope she keeps increasing -- she along with Vincent can be the contest's dark horses.

---
"Being a Hunter has to be the best job in the world! Well, next to pimp..."
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:32:59 AM | Message Detail
Cloud can't even SFF Sephiroth I doubt Tifa will somehow do it.
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:33:03 AM | Message Detail
Actually...if there's something to be said for the hero/villain relationship, then Tifa/Sephiroth could be pretty damn interesting...
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:33:21 AM | Message Detail
After this topic fills up I'm going to bed
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:33:43 AM | Message Detail
Just so you know, Dante beat Ryo Hazuki worse than Crono was expected to beat Ryo the previous year.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:34:32 AM | Message Detail
Haste dont try to talk sense to them. They all want to believe Tifa is the strongest character ever so let them.
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:34:34 AM | Message Detail
Actually, I hope Tifa OUTperforms Cloud. That will make people trust the whole idea of linearity and transitivity far less. That, or they will think Tifa can beat Cloud...
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:34:56 AM | Message Detail
But at the rate she's going, it's highly possible that she could perform as well as Cloud...

We'll come to that when she gets there, but if she keeps increasing, Samus won't stand a chance.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:35:22 AM | Message Detail
78.86%

Tifa finally drops.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:35:25 AM | Message Detail
finally she's gone down
---
I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:35:28 AM | Message Detail
Go to bed.

I don't feel like it. I had to sit at home while Tanya went to TWO bachelorette parties on consecutive nights with the rest of her sorority sluts, and she naturally does nothing for me once she gets back home even though she knew I didn't want her going in the first place. She could have at least tried making me feel better, but of course not. I'm supposed to be okay with her going to strip clubs and/or other clubs and having random people all over her while she's trashed, which is a state of mind in which she can't control herself but I'm supposed to trust her anyway.

She's about the last person I want to be near right now. Stupid *****.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:36:36 AM | Message Detail
You compromise the stats.... Like I said Samus was projected to have her way with Cloud from BOTH of her first two matches...

Exactly. After all of the Megamus Clinkeroth talk, Samus still fit in snuggly behind Cloud, Link, and Sephy in the X-Stats, and Sam Fisher and Lara Croft appeared to take HUGE drops. I know people will say that Sam was overrated by Magus, but then you have Lara Croft. It's not like she was insanely popular in 2k3. There was no reason for her to take THAT much of a drop between 2k3 and 2k4.

I'm not saying I'm right, but it is something to look out for. As we get more stats in, we will be able to pinpoint the anomalies.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:36:37 AM | Message Detail
I don't feel like it. I had to sit at home while Tanya went to TWO bachelorette parties on consecutive nights with the rest of her sorority sluts, and she naturally does nothing for me once she gets back home even though she knew I didn't want her going in the first place. She could have at least tried making me feel better, but of course not. I'm supposed to be okay with her going to strip clubs and/or other clubs and having random people all over her while she's trashed, which is a state of mind in which she can't control herself but I'm supposed to trust her anyway.

She's about the last person I want to be near right now. Stupid *****.


Oh... Uh...

Yeah...

So how about that Mario?
---
"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: ExThaNemesis | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:37:04 AM | Message Detail
I'm never getting married. >.>
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:37:47 AM | Message Detail

I'm not saying I'm right, but it is something to look out for. As we get more stats in, we will be able to pinpoint the anomalies.


When I make my bracket next year, I'm going to barely refer to the stats and see how many times I compromise them by accident, by how much, and how many times I'm right. Then, I will make a cute little list, and post it, for reference.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:37:50 AM | Message Detail
Wow . . . sorry Ulti. Hopefully it gets a lot better after the Wedding.
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I need to put something here.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:37:58 AM | Message Detail
I don't even know why I am, to tell you the truth.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:38:08 AM | Message Detail
I was under the impression that you were getting married to Se-

...Please, RKO me. I'll deserve by the time I finish this sentence.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:38:12 AM | Message Detail
And you're marrying her, Ulti?

Have fun then...

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:38:19 AM | Message Detail
Pretty much all of the top tier characters will blow out fodder with approximately the same percentage; there shouldn't be any real surprises here.
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.nS) quote of the week:
"I don't know how to work the machine. I just act like I know what I'm doing, and people tip me." - syst
From: cyko | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:38:24 AM | Message Detail
Ulti - RUN, RUN!!! OR YOU'll BE WELL DONE!!!!

---
"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:38:49 AM | Message Detail
I don't even know why I am, to tell you the truth.

Not to be a jerk but... You might want to take a nice, long while and think it over...
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:38:58 AM | Message Detail
PIRATES' WRAAAAAATH
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: cyko | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:39:05 AM | Message Detail
tonight my dreams will consist of Tifa, Lulu, Mai Shiranui, Morrigan, and Jam Kuradoberi in a hot tub; laughing at the suffed Hedghog mounted on the wall behind us.

^_^

---
"Start wearing purple, for me now. All your sanity and wits, they will all vanish, i promise. It's just a matter of time..."
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 8/14/2005 12:39:06 AM | Message Detail
Mario still has this contest in the bag, this division is still Mega Man's, Tifa will still bow out to Sonic and Crono is still a poop.

VOTE MARIO!
---
Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness
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