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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 201
From: jonthomson | Posted: 8/13/2005 6:30:54 AM | Message Detail
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 8/13/2005 2:28:24 PM | #400
If you think Lloyd is comign back and not Kratos, you don't realize how these contest nominations work.

And your average guy isn't going to look at the stats, they'll just see that Lloyd won and Kratos didn't.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 8/13/2005 6:32:00 AM | Message Detail
They will also remember that Lloyd crapped horribly against Zero.

Also, people like Kratos more than Lloyd. It's almost a given.

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SC2k5: 22/24
Today: Sonic vs. Jin Kazama
From: Phediuk | Posted: 8/13/2005 6:35:12 AM | Message Detail
Well, looks like Kratos is significantly stronger than Lloyd, unless some weird **** happened with Wesker.

So, is this the first real evidence we've seen of a supporting character being stronger than the main?
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 8/13/2005 6:36:10 AM | Message Detail
Pretty much, although I think it was obvious who would be stronger before the contest even began.

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SC2k5: 22/24
Today: Sonic vs. Jin Kazama
From: Who Cares? | Posted: 8/13/2005 7:02:38 AM | Message Detail
Vote Totals at the 7:00 mark compared to other weekend matches

Crono/Zidane - 23255
Kefka/Vercetti - 23016
Sora/Agent 47 - 21911
Kratos/Diablo - 21583
Riku/Frog - 21411
Samus/Yuri - 21170
Kirby/Cecil - 21085
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 8/13/2005 7:03:22 AM | Message Detail
Since Kratos seems to be holding Diablos steady, what does a 57.5-42.5 split say for Kratos strength?

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SC2k5: 22/24
Today: Sonic vs. Jin Kazama
From: consolefreak | Posted: 8/13/2005 7:08:33 AM | Message Detail
Since Kratos seems to be holding Diablos steady, what does a 57.5-42.5 split say for Kratos strength?

Assuming Diablo's spring contest strength, this projects Kratos 21.28% on Link. He's expected to lose to Kefka with 46.28% (taking Kefka's strength from the spring).

I remember you making a topic for an explanation of the stats. I can explain if you want or were you just too lazy for this one?

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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 23/25. Today: Diablo, tomorrow: Tifa
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 8/13/2005 7:10:34 AM | Message Detail
You explain. I still don't entirely get how to find out stats. I just have some sort of mental block on it.

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SC2k5: 22/24
Today: Sonic vs. Jin Kazama
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 8/13/2005 7:11:14 AM | Message Detail
Kratos Auron 42.62% 9537
Diablo 57.38% 12842
TOTAL VOTES 22379

Holy cow at that cut.
From: consolefreak | Posted: 8/13/2005 7:11:25 AM | Message Detail
You explain. I still don't entirely get how to find out stats. I just have some sort of mental block on it.

Ok. I'll do it with examples and everything. Give me a minute though.
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 23/25. Today: Diablo, tomorrow: Tifa
From: jonthomson | Posted: 8/13/2005 7:11:49 AM | Message Detail
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 8/13/2005 3:03:22 PM | #406
Since Kratos seems to be holding Diablos steady, what does a 57.5-42.5 split say for Kratos strength?

About the same as it did when you asked what it'd be in a 60-40, only a little stronger.
---
Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 8/13/2005 7:12:43 AM | Message Detail
Holy crap, the last update had Diablo only gaining 4 votes!

ITS TEH COMBACK!

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SC2k5: 22/24
Today: Sonic vs. Jin Kazama
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/13/2005 7:13:18 AM | Message Detail
..people are calling TOS cult when it has sold over 1 million copies?

Cult =/= niche

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/13/2005 7:13:49 AM | Message Detail
Oh noes! Kratos is going to break the 3300 barrier!

<_<

>_>

X_X
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"You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops." -Samus Aran
"I'll express my love to you slowly, later." -Setzer Gabbiani
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/13/2005 7:14:00 AM | Message Detail
Phediuk: I hope it's true, given that Lloyd has virtually no appeal at all.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: consolefreak | Posted: 8/13/2005 7:29:09 AM | Message Detail
There are several things you might want to find out by using the X-stats. Let's start with the most common question:

How much is character a supposed to get on character b? This is the easiest one. Just go to www.sc2k5.com for all the extrapolated standings, and look at the stats for your 2 characters. The basic formula is: weaker character's Xs * 50 / stronger character's Xs = % weaker character would get on stronger character.

For example you want to know how much Sin would get on Nemesis.

19.02 * 50 / 24.95 = 38.12%. Sin should get around 38.12% on Nemesis.

Another question you might ask yourself is: how stronger is this character after perorming ___ on ___?

For example, how strong is Jin really? You can find this out by a simple equation. Start by using the basic formula:

Jin * 50 / Sonic = 23.85. Now, we know Sonic, so (taking Sonic's 2k4 Xs) we get:

Jin * 50 / 33.56 = 23.85. Further working out the equation (this is easier when you do it on a piece of paper) we get: Jin = 23.85 * 33.56 / 50. <=> Jin = 16.01% Xs.


This is slightly different if the character's strenght you want to know is the stronger character. For example, let's say Tifa beats Vyse tomorrow with 75%.

The basic formula: Vyse * 50 / Tifa = 25

We know Vyse, so we get: 17.92 * 50 / Tifa = 25. Again, further working out the equation you get that
17.92 * 50 / 25 = Tifa <=> Tifa = 35.84% Xs. (enough to beat Sonic).


These are the basics, and pretty much everything you want to know. If you have any questions, ask ahead.
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 23/25. Today: Diablo, tomorrow: Tifa
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 8/13/2005 7:43:07 AM | Message Detail
Thanks.

*saves your explanation*

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SC2k5: 22/24
Today: Sonic vs. Jin Kazama
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/13/2005 7:46:53 AM | Message Detail
I'd say ToS is about as mainstream as those...

Liar. From an outsider's point of view, ToS isn't anywhere NEAR them.


Bad Fur Day sold around 400,000 copies while Live and Reloaded has sold around 212,000 -- it recently sold 62,000 as of July, according to NPD.

Hey, better late than never; I appreciate it.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 8/13/2005 7:55:25 AM | Message Detail
Gamecube exclusives outside of Mario/Zelda wouldn't be considered mainstream.

Tos = Cult



---
Smurf , the cream of Knuckles Fanboyism
Now Playing: Tales of Symphonia (again), Burnout 3 (still), Loz:Minish Cap
From: consolefreak | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:03:28 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:06:13 AM | Message Detail
Cult =/= niche

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: consolefreak | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:07:03 AM | Message Detail
You can also do some more advanced stuff with the Xs, for example:

When 2 characters have a common opponent, you can predict what they would get on each other without knowing that 1 character's Xs.

For example, Cloud beats Sonic with 60%. Next round, he beats Squall with 70%. Let's say this is the first contest, and we have absolutely no idea of Cloud's strength.

This isn't quite as easy as it looks, but it's not that hard either. To calculate what Sonic would get on Squall:

40/30 = 1.33~ (make sure you don't use Cloud's percentages (70/60) -- it doesn't work that way)

That 1.33~ number indicates how much better Sonic performed: He did .33~ times better than Squall.

Using the extrapolated method again: (Squall = 1, Sonic is 1.33~ times 1, or 1.33~

1 / 1.33~ * 50 = 37.5%. That's what Squall should get on Sonic. You've calculated this without knowing Cloud's Xs strength.



Another thing you can do is the following:

About the Bowser - Ryu match. Let's say you're not quite sure who'll win this. Bowser is the favourite after his match against Chun-Li, but you're still not quite

Ryu faced off with Rikku, and Ganondorf with Yuna. Since both Ganondorf and Bowser lost to Sephiroth in the villain contest, you can accurately determine how their strengths compare, or how much Bowser would get on Yuna.

Ganondorf got 61.2% on Yuna. The projects her 32.46% versus 2k5 (villain contest) Sephiroth. With that Xs, Bowser should beat her with 59.88%.

Ryu beat Rikku with 55.72%. Ryu performed worse on Rikku than Bowser did on Yuna. Another stat that predicts Bowser the clear favourite. More accurately, however:

Rikku * 50 / Ryu = 44.28 <=>
Ryu = Rikku * 50 / 44.28

Yuna * 50 / Bowser = 40.12 <=>
Bowser = Yuna * 50 / 40.12

So, for Ryu to beat Bowser:

Rikku * 50 / 44.28 > Yuna * 50 / 40.12. Further working out the equation:

Rikku / 44.28 > Yuna / 40.12 (both sides have *50, so you can just drop it).

=> For Ryu to beat Bowser, Rikku has to be 44.28/40.12 (1. 103688) times stronger than Yuna.

Extrapolated: 1 / 1.103688 * 50 = 45.30%. So in other words, if Ryu wants to beat Bowser Rikku should get at least 54.70% on Yuna.

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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 23/25. Today: Diablo, tomorrow: Tifa
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:07:41 AM | Message Detail
*saves that as well*

Thanks, I understand it better now.

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SC2k5: 22/24
Today: Sonic vs. Jin Kazama
From: consolefreak | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:08:10 AM | Message Detail
No problem.
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 23/25. Today: Diablo, tomorrow: Tifa
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:09:41 AM | Message Detail
On a side note, man, Kratos is really sticking it to Diablo in the percentage.

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SC2k5: 22/24
Today: Sonic vs. Jin Kazama
From: 6thDeus | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:10:21 AM | Message Detail
..people are calling TOS cult when it has sold over 1 million copies?

I wouldn't be surprised if TOS has sold a million copies worldwide, but in the US its sales figures hover around the 300k mark. Not bad, but not stellar either.

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Knights of the Old Republic> Your favorite Square RPG
From: swirldude | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:30:39 AM | Message Detail
How come when I used to ask how the X-Stats work, all of you ignored me or gave me half-assed answers that made no sense? *fume*
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Knuckles the Echidna's road to the Sc2k5 Title!
Round 2: (2)Squall Leonhart
From: consolefreak | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:33:13 AM | Message Detail
How come when I used to ask how the X-Stats work, all of you ignored me or gave me half-assed answers that made no sense? *fume*

I never saw you asking it.
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 23/25. Today: Diablo, tomorrow: Tifa
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:33:16 AM | Message Detail
..people are calling TOS cult when it has sold over 1 million copies?

Not in the U.S. It's in the 300,000 mark here. Still, I think that's a little bit more than what we would consider "cult."
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: kungfu chicken | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:34:21 AM | Message Detail
off topic: what do you guys think kerrigan would get on diablo if we pretended there would be no sff?
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*pacing back in forth waiting for: advance wars ds, twilight princess, ffxii, kingdom hearts 2, castlevania dos*
From: swirldude | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:35:08 AM | Message Detail
I never saw you asking it.

You either weren't there back then or you decided to ignore me. <_<
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Knuckles the Echidna's road to the Sc2k5 Title!
Round 2: (2)Squall Leonhart
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:38:27 AM | Message Detail
I don't think there'd be any SFF (or at least minimal), but I'd still think it'd be pretty bad. I don't have any percentage in mind though.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Who Cares? | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:39:13 AM | Message Detail
Outta curiosity, has there ever been another match where neither side took any real control of the day vote? Although the edge is going to Kratos, there hasn't been any real momentum to the updates.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:42:15 AM | Message Detail
Outta curiosity, has there ever been another match where neither side took any real control of the day vote?

Yesterday's match.

And Kefka/Wesker would be the best example.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:42:48 AM | Message Detail
Kefka/Wesker...maybe CT/LoZ:LttP, too (I know it was arguably the closest-at-all-times-of-the-match battle we've had).
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:48:25 AM | Message Detail
And I see the typo still has not been corrected.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:49:26 AM | Message Detail
Maybe it's just me (haven't checked out sc2k5.com), but it looks like Kratos Aurion's taken out decent percentage from Diablo this past update or two.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: swirldude | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:49:40 AM | Message Detail
I say we need to adjust the X-Stats for the Auron factor.
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Knuckles the Echidna's road to the Sc2k5 Title!
Round 2: (2)Squall Leonhart
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:50:46 AM | Message Detail
Kratos has gained .26% in about the last hour and a half.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:51:25 AM | Message Detail
Maybe it's just me (haven't checked out sc2k5.com), but it looks like Kratos Aurion's taken out decent percentage from Diablo this past update or two.

He's been steadily rising in percentage since the day vote. At this rate, you wouldn't be surprised to see KA with 44%.

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SC2k5: 22/24
Today: Sonic vs. Jin Kazama
From: TheKoolAidShoto | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:51:54 AM | Message Detail
I like you HaRRicH. You got balls. I like balls
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HaloKiller: Gamefaqs user who got owned in the span of two posts.
From: swirldude | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:53:06 AM | Message Detail
Diablo continues to increase his lead. Kratos has no chance.
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Knuckles the Echidna's road to the Sc2k5 Title!
Round 2: (2)Squall Leonhart
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:53:58 AM | Message Detail
No one is saying Kratos has a chance to win. He's just doing pretty well and is showing signs of taking the day vote.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: swirldude | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:54:58 AM | Message Detail
Bah, the ToS hierarchy is messed up anyway. Kratos > Mithos > Lloyd is something I won't buy. Any chance something happened in Kefka/Mithos?
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Knuckles the Echidna's road to the Sc2k5 Title!
Round 2: (2)Squall Leonhart
From: Protoman OTC | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:55:16 AM | Message Detail
diabloii.net hasn't put up a link yet either, so that's likely affecting it a tad.
---
The official alternate account of Habito.
"It isn't manly to punch a guy from behind in the face" - Bill Watters
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:58:08 AM | Message Detail
Any chance something happened in Kefka/Mithos?

If anything, the irregularity lies with Wesker.

Besides, no linkage means we can take Diablo at his straight up Sp2K5 value as it's determined by when he didn't have it against Ganondorf. Either way, Kefka would imply that it wasn't very significant, as he barely budged.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 2: (3) Mag...Er...(6) Knuckles the Echidna
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:58:10 AM | Message Detail
Alright, Kratos is doing muc better than I predicted and is holding himself at around Ridley level for now. Go Kratos Auron!

>.>
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Kratos vs. Diablo - Bracket: Diablo - Vote: Kratos (22/25)
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:58:38 AM | Message Detail
Good to know, because I am a man of balls...

...



...anyways, I'm out. Time for work.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/13/2005 8:58:54 AM | Message Detail
Any chance something happened in Kefka/Mithos?

TJF and/or a horrid Kefka pic?

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Ed_Bellis | Posted: 8/13/2005 9:01:35 AM | Message Detail
Wasn't it also already hypothesized that Kefka overperformed on Wesker due to his sprite? Thus, might that have thrown off Wesker's ranking, which in turn might have thrown off Mithos's?
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Huh-CHA!
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