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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 200
From: DragoonsKill91 | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:12:52 PM | Message Detail
At this point it almost seems that 2k3 should just be thrown out the window because just about no one has stayed at what 2k3 made them up to be.
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"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:13:36 PM | Message Detail
Squall is around his 2k3 strength.

KB
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:16:19 PM | Message Detail
2003 isnt that bad outside of the Tidus/'Dorf/Magus trio and Shadow.

2004 is actually much worst. We overrated Magus (again), we really have no idea where anyone besides Link, Mario, and Crono land in that first division, we have no idea where any of the 20XX characters land thanks to Mega Man, Snake's constant change of behavior, Frog/LS/MC trio, Midgar is covered with SFF too.

We basically got the Chaos conference to fall back on.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: DragoonsKill91 | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:19:04 PM | Message Detail
We basically got the Chaos conference to fall back on.

Well if we had taken samus result against sam seriously it would've been clear that knuckles vs magus was actually up in the air.
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"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee
From: Yesmar | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:42:53 PM | Message Detail
Squall is around his 2k3 strength.

Not if you keep Kirby constant.
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http://www.cbs.com/primetime/bigbrother6/_polls/amc_poll.shtml
VOTE FOR KAYSAR!
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:54:28 PM | Message Detail
Squall is around his 2k3 strength.

But if you consider Bomberman constant between 2k3 and 2k4, Squall dropped by almost 4%, about the same as Seph's drop between 2k3 and 2k4.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:56:01 PM | Message Detail
From: sidharta
But if you consider Bomberman constant between 2k3 and 2k4, Squall dropped by almost 4%, about the same as Seph's drop between 2k3 and 2k4.

Bomberman was behind SFF in 2003....
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:56:31 PM | Message Detail
Actually, so was Kirby.... Same SFF too...
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/12/2005 1:01:12 PM | Message Detail
Same thing for Alucard. That whole fourpack acted weird in 2004. I honestly don't think Squall dropped, for the most part.
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus
From: swirldude | Posted: 8/12/2005 1:03:06 PM | Message Detail
*obligatory post in 200th topic*

>_> I'll go read the rest of the topic now.
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Knuckles the Echidna's road to the Sc2k5 Title!
Round 2: (2)Squall Leonhart
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/12/2005 1:03:28 PM | Message Detail
Bomberman was behind SFF in 2003....

SFF?
What SFF?

Cloud vs. Seph?
If anything Seph overperformed on Cloud in 2k3, which means both Kirby and Bomberman didn't deserve their 2k3 values.

Bomberman -> Alucard -> Seph is as clean as any extrapolation can ever be.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/12/2005 1:05:15 PM | Message Detail
It's assumed Alucard underperformed on Seph by 3% (I think it was 3%...)
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Sonic vs, Jin - Bracket: Sonic - Vote: Sonic (21/24)
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/12/2005 1:12:10 PM | Message Detail
It's assumed Alucard underperformed on Seph by 3% (I think it was 3%...)

Alucard increased by 5% for absolutely no reason whatsoever between 2k2 and 2k3, and you said he underperformed in 2k3?

Sorry if I don't buy it.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/12/2005 1:27:13 PM | Message Detail
Alucard increased by 5% for absolutely no reason whatsoever between 2k2 and 2k3, and you said he underperformed in 2k3?

Alucard lost to Cloud in 2k2. Mario went SMS on Cloud in 2k2.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: shadow8021 | Posted: 8/12/2005 1:27:42 PM | Message Detail
What do you think was Magus' true 2004 X-stat value? I think it was through 2005 Luca, because that barely puts him above Frog. Then he went down from there, and Knuckles wemt up enough to beat him. Through 2005 Luca, Magus is at 28.93% on Base Link.
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Summer Contest Score: 22/24
Today's Pick: Sonic
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/12/2005 1:29:58 PM | Message Detail
Magus should have been around 26%BL in 2k4, perhaps a bit higher.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: shadow8021 | Posted: 8/12/2005 1:37:01 PM | Message Detail
It's hard to imagine him being weaker than Frog, though. He and Frog probably dropped this year, while Knux rose.
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Summer Contest Score: 22/24
Today's Pick: Sonic
From: DragoonsKill91 | Posted: 8/12/2005 1:40:17 PM | Message Detail
Thats the thing though, WHY would knuckles increase and magus and frog both suddenly drop?
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"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/12/2005 1:41:47 PM | Message Detail
I know I'm saying it for the billionth time, but...a greater influx of casuals this year would easily account for that.
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I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon
From: Mumei | Posted: 8/12/2005 1:44:07 PM | Message Detail
Why is everyone acting like the stats topic suddenly sucks ass? It's not like the complaints aren't easily fixable by just being nice >_>

It was more of a slow and gradual decline, but the last two topics have been much better...

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<_<
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/12/2005 1:45:53 PM | Message Detail
Alucard increased by 5% for absolutely no reason whatsoever between 2k2 and 2k3, and you said he underperformed in 2k3?

Alucard lost to Cloud in 2k2. Mario went SMS on Cloud in 2k2.


Then Mario was destroyed by Link. Another reason is that if you bring Alucard up 3%, Alucard, Kirby and Bomberman all fall into place in their respectful matches in 2004.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Sonic vs, Jin - Bracket: Sonic - Vote: Sonic (21/24)
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/12/2005 2:08:34 PM | Message Detail
Then Mario was destroyed by Link. Another reason is that if you bring Alucard up 3%, Alucard, Kirby and Bomberman all fall into place in their respectful matches in 2004.

Bah, I forgot Cloud vs. Mario, and Link/Mario SFF.

But bringing Squall down 3% would also fix Kirby and Bomberman into place.

And after Squall's performance yesterday, it seems to make more sense to me.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/12/2005 2:12:06 PM | Message Detail
And after Squall's performance yesterday, it seems to make more sense to me.

I don't see how. We don't know how strong Geno is.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/12/2005 2:15:43 PM | Message Detail
But bringing Squall down 3% would also fix Kirby and Bomberman into place.

That's also what I would like to believe, but until I see a match where Squall legitimately underperforms with no explanation, we just have to assume that it's part of Alucard's Plan.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Sonic vs, Jin - Bracket: Sonic - Vote: Sonic (21/24)
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/12/2005 2:15:58 PM | Message Detail
But bringing Squall down 3% would also fix Kirby and Bomberman into place.

No, it doesn't. Bomberman's 2002 and 2004 values pretty much line up if you hold Squall constant. Kirby is also one of those characters who seems to be on a rise every year. Either way, we've got evidence of FFVII characters seemingly getting an unfair advantage on PSX exclusive characters, so who knows?

And after Squall's performance yesterday, it seems to make more sense to me.

Why? Because you KNOW Geno is really weak, or just because you THINK he is? There's a difference.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (2) Squall Leonhart 74412 (74.84%), (7) Geno 25022 (25.16%)
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/12/2005 2:28:58 PM | Message Detail
"I don't see how. We don't know how strong Geno is."

"Why? Because you KNOW Geno is really weak, or just because you THINK he is? There's a difference."


It's only my opinion, but I can ask the same thing:
Do you KNOW that Geno isn't THAT weak?

"That's also what I would like to believe, but until I see a match where Squall legitimately underperforms with no explanation, we just have to assume that it's part of Alucard's Plan."

I agree that Squall's drop can't be proven, but it makes more sense to me than a 3% underperformance by Alucard against Seph.

But then again it's Seph, who likes to shove his Masamune up the X-stats behind, so I guess the point is moot.

"No, it doesn't. Bomberman's 2002 and 2004 values pretty much line up if you hold Squall constant. Kirby is also one of those characters who seems to be on a rise every year. Either way, we've got evidence of FFVII characters seemingly getting an unfair advantage on PSX exclusive characters, so who knows?"

So, you're trying to say that after dropping by 4% between 2k2 and 2k3, Bomberman suddenly regained his strength in 2k4 for no reason whatsoever?
I don't buy it.

Kirby was in Seph's half of the division in 2k3, so he might be a little over-rated.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/12/2005 2:31:12 PM | Message Detail
Do you KNOW that Geno isn't THAT weak?

No, but to say that Squall being weaker than his 2003 number after he just TRIPLED someone doesn't make any sense at all.

So, you're trying to say that after dropping by 4% between 2k2 and 2k3, Bomberman suddenly regained his strength in 2k4 for no reason whatsoever?
I don't buy it.


No, I'm saying that his 2003 number was an anomaly.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (2) Squall Leonhart 74412 (74.84%), (7) Geno 25022 (25.16%)
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/12/2005 2:36:31 PM | Message Detail
And you know who else had a "boost" similar to Kirby's, Alucard's, and Bomberman's? Max Payne. Guess who he faced? You guessed it: Sephiroth.

You can claim that these are all just a bunch of coincidences that characters Sephiroth faced in 2003 looked stronger (not weaker, contrary to what you seem to be claiming about Sephiroth overperforming on Cloud), but you tend to side with evidence rather than coincidence in these cases.

And for all of these characters who would have been influenced by Sephiroth overperforming on Cloud in 2003, very few of them seem weaker.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (2) Squall Leonhart 74412 (74.84%), (7) Geno 25022 (25.16%)
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/12/2005 2:41:29 PM | Message Detail
No, but to say that Squall being weaker than his 2003 number after he just TRIPLED someone doesn't make any sense at all.

If he tripled Tanner, would you still say that he has performed as expected?

No, I'm saying that his 2003 number was an anomaly.

I can say the same thing about Squall's 2k3 value, you know.

His 2k2 and 2k4 values lined up if you consider the SFF in Cloud vs. Squall to be minimal.

And we've seen that there isn't much SFF in Crono vs. Magus, if at all.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/12/2005 2:44:04 PM | Message Detail
Don't even compare Geno to Tanner. Tanner has an established strength, and nobody but you seems to agree on Geno being a bottom feeder.

I can say the same thing about Squall's 2k3 value, you know.

His 2k2 and 2k4 values lined up if you consider the SFF in Cloud vs. Squall to be minimal.


Well, then you have to consider ALL of Square to be an anomaly that year as they all went up. And if ANYTHING, Squall could possibly be underrated by the 2003 stats because Samus faced Link.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (2) Squall Leonhart 74412 (74.84%), (7) Geno 25022 (25.16%)
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/12/2005 2:46:57 PM | Message Detail
And you know who else had a "boost" similar to Kirby's, Alucard's, and Bomberman's? Max Payne. Guess who he faced? You guessed it: Sephiroth.

You can claim that these are all just a bunch of coincidences that characters Sephiroth faced in 2003 looked stronger (not weaker, contrary to what you seem to be claiming about Sephiroth overperforming on Cloud), but you tend to side with evidence rather than coincidence in these cases.

And for all of these characters who would have been influenced by Sephiroth overperforming on Cloud in 2003, very few of them seem weaker.


MM, SS, Mario, Knux and perhaps even more has decreased in 2K4.

They're all in Seph's half of the bracket in 2k3.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/12/2005 2:47:47 PM | Message Detail
And just because Crono/Magus seemingly had very little SFF doesn't mean Cloud could not have SFF'd Squall. Who is the ONE character who Squall is always compared to? Cloud. If anything, that is about as obvious of a case of SFF as it gets, as their fanbase would overlap by a large amount.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (2) Squall Leonhart 74412 (74.84%), (7) Geno 25022 (25.16%)
From: creativename | Posted: 8/12/2005 2:48:21 PM | Message Detail
This is an unimpressive performance for Sonic. Jin is new so it can't mean too much, but I don't think anyone's going to have their confidence in Sonic raised by this. I am surprised that Sonic didn't manage to make it to at least 78% with the day vote.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/12/2005 2:48:41 PM | Message Detail
MM, SS, Mario, Knux and perhaps even more has decreased in 2K4.

They're all in Seph's half of the bracket in 2k3.


Okay, then explain everybody else. You can't just go on a few. You have to explain EVERYTHING for this to work. Just a few cases here and there doesn't cut it.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (2) Squall Leonhart 74412 (74.84%), (7) Geno 25022 (25.16%)
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 8/12/2005 2:50:19 PM | Message Detail
It's not an impressive performance by Sonic but it isn't a bad one either.
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When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/12/2005 2:53:23 PM | Message Detail
Man, the vote totals for this match seem really low...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/12/2005 2:54:30 PM | Message Detail
Don't even compare Geno to Tanner. Tanner has an established strength, and nobody but you seems to agree on Geno being a bottom feeder.

I was exaggerating, but until proven otherwise, I'll consider Geno to be the likes of JC Denton.

Well, then you have to consider ALL of Square to be an anomaly that year as they all went up. And if ANYTHING, Squall could possibly be underrated by the 2003 stats because Samus faced Link.

Maybe, but Cloud's 2k2 numbers won't line up with his 2k4 numbers no matter how you twist it.

Even if you put in Mario/Cloud PGC Factor and Link/Mario SFF, someone who should get 48%+ on Link won't lose to Mario.

And if you factor in Link/Samus SFF in 2k3, Squall's performance in 2k4 (and yesterday) looked even less impressive.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/12/2005 2:57:34 PM | Message Detail
I was exaggerating, but until proven otherwise, I'll consider Geno to be the likes of JC Denton.

There's absolutely no reason to believe he's that low, but be my guest.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (2) Squall Leonhart 74412 (74.84%), (7) Geno 25022 (25.16%)
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/12/2005 3:01:17 PM | Message Detail
At the 15:00 mark, this match has 66,379 votes.

Ness/CJ - 71,765
Auron/Big Boss - 68,913
Kratos/Alucard - 65,930
DK/Fisher - 63,816
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (2) Squall Leonhart 74412 (74.84%), (7) Geno 25022 (25.16%)
From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted: 8/12/2005 3:01:49 PM | Message Detail
Okay what are the noble 9 that I hear?Can someone name them?And it seems that most people who know their facts believe that the final will be Samus vs Crono with Crono winning right?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/12/2005 3:02:51 PM | Message Detail
Cloud, Link, Sephiroth, Samus, Mario, Crono, Mega Man, Sonic, Snake.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted: 8/12/2005 3:04:48 PM | Message Detail
Ok thanks.What about my other question?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/12/2005 3:05:43 PM | Message Detail
Samus will probably beat Crono.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted: 8/12/2005 3:06:24 PM | Message Detail
Damn it.Well okay,I guess it is time for a woman to win eh?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
From: creativename | Posted: 8/12/2005 3:10:56 PM | Message Detail
Mario and Crono are heavy favorites over Samus among the "casual" bracket-makers, Samus is the fairly clear favorite (though not overwhelmingly so) among board analysts.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/12/2005 3:13:37 PM | Message Detail
And just because Crono/Magus seemingly had very little SFF doesn't mean Cloud could not have SFF'd Squall. Who is the ONE character who Squall is always compared to? Cloud. If anything, that is about as obvious of a case of SFF as it gets, as their fanbase would overlap by a large amount.

Or so you think.

Note that I NEVER said that there's absolutely no SFF in Cloud vs. Squall, but it might be as small as 1% or less.

Okay, then explain everybody else. You can't just go on a few. You have to explain EVERYTHING for this to work. Just a few cases here and there doesn't cut it.

I know, those are just the big names.

But here we go:
Seph himself, MM, Mario, SS, Vercetti, Dante, Knux, DK, and Lara.

The exceptions are:
Crono, Alucard, Ryu, and Vyse.
Note that Alucard's value in 2k4 is VERY questionable.

I'd say the evidence weighs on Seph being over-rated in 2k3.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/12/2005 3:18:56 PM | Message Detail
Everyone's reactions to this match heavily remind of the reactions from Sonic vs. Ken...funny thing is, Sonic actually beat Ken by almost 4% more than Samus did.

Based on a static 2K4 Sonic (assuming Cloud '03 = Cloud '04) at this point, Jin would receive 16.86% on 2K3 Link, while Kazuya would receive 13.93% against Link, or 41.31% against Jin (more or less). It should've been clear that Jin > Kazuya in the first place.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/12/2005 3:23:53 PM | Message Detail
The exceptions are:
Crono, Alucard, Ryu, Vyse, Duke Nukem, Ryo Hazuki, Kirby, and Bomberman.


Fixed. Also, tack onto that the optional Yuna and Zelda, as it means they'd take an even tougher-to-swallow increase between 2K3 and 2K4.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/12/2005 3:24:32 PM | Message Detail
Alucard being SFFd in 2003 makes Bomberman equal pretty much from 2002 to 2004 and Kirby getting exactly what he should in 2004.

But that just makes TOO MUCH sense.
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/12/2005 3:51:19 PM | Message Detail
The day vote's been over for HOURS?

Damn. If Megaman pulls this kind of percentage against Conker Sonic's Final 4 bid looks really bad. I'm starting to get seriously worried about Tifa, too.

And I have to agree, Yesmar's intervention really cleaned up the place. Kudos, man, wherever you may be.
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You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops. -Samus Aran
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