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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 200
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/11/2005 8:48:50 PM | Message Detail
Neither Kirby nor Dante deserved their 1 seed.

I didn't mean to imply they did. I was just saying that those two things didn't add up.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/11/2005 8:56:34 PM | Message Detail
Jin breaking 30%..?
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus
From: FrostHarpy | Posted: 8/11/2005 8:57:23 PM | Message Detail
Jin isn't even gonna get 20%.
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Lonely Angel
http://img124.imageshack.us/img124/973/rockwin026il.gif
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/11/2005 9:37:22 PM | Message Detail
Match 25: (1) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. (8) Jin Kazama

Past Performances

Sonic the Hedgehog


Summer 2002
Beat Pitfall Harry, 84.31% - 15.69%
Beat Tidus, 58.83% - 41.17%
Lost to Samus Aran, 49.98% - 50.02%
Ranked: 5th

Summer 2003
Beat Ken Masters, 68.91% - 31.09%
Beat Zero, 52.34% - 47.66%
Beat Aeris Gainsborough, 53.02% - 46.98%
Lost to Cloud Strife, 33.79% - 66.21%
Ranked: 10th

Summer 2004
Beat Terry Bogard, 80.84% - 19.16%
Beat Ryu Hoshi, 55.54% - 44.46%
Beat Dante Sparda, 62.03% - 37.97%
Lost to Samus Aran, 42.49% - 57.51%
Ranked: 7th

Spring 2005
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Jin Kazama

Summer 2002
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Summer 2003
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Summer 2004
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Spring 2005
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Analysis

Welcome to the Chaos division, too bad the name doesn’t stand for itself since this division isn’t really chaotic like other divisions. This isn’t Sonic’s first time going against a character from a fighting series since he’s already defeated three different characters, but unless your name is Ryu you have no chance in breaking 40% against Sonic. Jin is from the Tekken series and this contest will probably be his last.

After a bad year in 2k3, Sonic proved that he still is Elite 8 worthy and will go as far as he can until he meets another elite character. Sonic may not be the strongest character, but he isn’t a slouch and can put up some good numbers against his opponents. The Sonic Mega Collection Plus has been released since 2k4, but Sonic is one of those characters that won’t easily move because of a collection game, but then again people never really liked 3D Sonic so it may regain some faith in some people though don’t expect a big raise. Also like always Sonic is at the opposite ends of the bracket from Mario and they won’t meet until the finals, which is unlikely. Come on CJayC I want a Mario vs. Sonic match.

As you may or may not know we’ve had a Tekken character in this contest before. Kazuya was in the contest in 2k2, but he lost in the first round to Scorpion 71/29. Getting blown away by Scorpion is no good and with Sonic easily being stronger then Scorpion Kazuya would’ve be quadrupled if not more. Some people think Kazuya will be more popular than Jin, but IMO they will probably be closer together then what some people think. Also since 2k2 both Tekken 4 and Tekken 5 have been released and that might give Jin a boost compare to Kazuya in 2k2.

The x-st has 2k4 Sonic winning with about 81/19 against Kazuya, but with both characters having numbers from different years these numbers are probably false. Even though I think Jin would be close to Sonic, but with Tekken 4 and 5 out I think Jin might just avoid a quadrupling. With that said the only characters from fighting games that should be aloud would be characters from Street Fighter and Mortal Kombat, but I might want to see a Soul Calibur character go at it just to see where they stand.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Sonic the Hedgehog over Jin Kazama

charmander6000’s Prediction: Sonic wins, 79.55% - 20.45%

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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 8/11/2005 10:05:28 PM | Message Detail
I am so sick of people trying to give Ryu a last name. His name is just plain Ryu, damn it!
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/11/2005 10:27:32 PM | Message Detail
I also wouldn't be surprised to see Pac-Man get 45% on Ocelot. I could definitely see Pac-Man compete with the likes of Nemesis or Dr. Wily.

Exactly. If you hold Luca Blight Sp2K5 equal to 2004 Luca, it would show Knuckles > Magus. I actually discovered this a little while ago, but I didn't want to bring it up because of how...out of whack it seemed.

Same with Sam Fisher.


Magus through Sam 2K4 - 23.58%
Magus through Luca Sp2K5 - 28.93%

So, you were half right. Argh, WHY did the first one have to be more accurate? ;_; All those things pointing to Magus > Knuckles, except for that one stinkin' match. Even Tidus through Mega Man predicted Magus would at least squeak by Knuckles...ah, well. Of course, Magus could've dropped or Knuckles could've increased. All those old-school Squaresoft characters can't stay popular forever.

I haven't heard a lot of discussion about Kirby/Tidus...I'm worried as heck about this match right now. I mean, not only did I have Magus winning his division, but stinkin' Tidus, too!

Unadjusted 2K4 Tidus: 24.47% (vs 2K3 Link)
20XX-adjusted 2K4 Tidus: 27.19%
2K3 Kirby: 26.34%
2K4 SFF-adjusted Kirby: 28.54%

Tidus: 24.47 - 27.19
Kirby: 26.34 - 28.54

If Tidus is below 26.34 he has no shot of beating Kirby.
If Kirby is above 27.19 Tidus has no shot of beating Kirby.
If Tidus is above 26.34 he is able to beat Kirby.

All theoretical, of course. We don't know what errors there are or how things have changed from year-to-year. FFX in general seems to have gotten slightly more popular; on the other hand, Nintendo seems to have gotten up a little, as well.

I can't decide if the 20XX factor exists or not...most matches have pointed toward it not existing, but I still have a difficult time believing that guys like Knuckles, Solid Snake, and Mega Man are all that weak.

I've been supporting the theory that Alucard underperformed against Sephiroth all this time, but...what if that isn't true? What if Squall just dropped in popularity the next year? That could help make a case for Tidus > Kirby.

Lastly, there's the obvious possibility that Tidus still underperformed on Mega Man, which leaves things open for a very comfy victory for Tidus. Ick.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/11/2005 10:29:09 PM | Message Detail
I think Jin is a lot more popular than Kazuya. I always imagined Jin as the big representative of Tekken and I never noticed Kazuya...then again, I've only played Tekken 3 and Tekken Tag at the arcades.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: FrostHarpy | Posted: 8/11/2005 10:29:13 PM | Message Detail
The SF movie messed things up. Don't assume any of that stuff is canon. Well, Ken Masters and Cammy White are, but that's about it.
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Lonely Angel
http://img124.imageshack.us/img124/973/rockwin026il.gif
From: FrostHarpy | Posted: 8/11/2005 10:33:02 PM | Message Detail
Kazuya was the main character for the early Tekken games. Fighting games sort of follow a new main character after a time skip of some sort, such as Alex is the main character in the SF3 games and Rock Howard becomes the new hero in MotW. Jin applies to that.
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Lonely Angel
http://img124.imageshack.us/img124/973/rockwin026il.gif
From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/11/2005 10:53:56 PM | Message Detail
I forgot to add...Magus/Knuckles seems to verify that Wesker's value in Sp2K5 was legit. Zero might be able to pull off the tripling against Lloyd, after all.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/11/2005 11:01:50 PM | Message Detail
I love it everytime someone freaks out when I use Hoshi.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/11/2005 11:05:56 PM | Message Detail
Wow, so Lloyd is really THAT weak, I wonder if Kratos will pull an Auron.
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/11/2005 11:06:14 PM | Message Detail
We should freak out whenever you use that name. It's a disgrace and should never be used.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/11/2005 11:09:38 PM | Message Detail
Am I the only person who thinks Marshall Law was one of the more popular Tekken characters? I know he was the favorite of everyone I knew when the original was out. His running up his opponents chest and flipping before crashing down into them was one of the classic moves back then.

He was designed to be the Bruce Lee of the series, while Lei was supposed to be the Jackie Chan. Ever notice the resemblances?
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/11/2005 11:10:53 PM | Message Detail
Law was one of my favorites, as well. For the n00bish Tekken player that I am, anyway...

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/11/2005 11:14:02 PM | Message Detail
Bah, King is the only good Tekken character.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 8/11/2005 11:14:18 PM | Message Detail
Yoshimitsu was always my favorite.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: consolefreak | Posted: 8/11/2005 11:33:57 PM | Message Detail
Am I the only person who thinks Marshall Law was one of the more popular Tekken characters?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=844
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 21/23. Today: Squall, tomorrow: Sonic
From: consolefreak | Posted: 8/11/2005 11:36:49 PM | Message Detail
Can anyone give me the ID of the poll about the Nintendo characters?
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 21/23. Today: Squall, tomorrow: Sonic
From: FrostHarpy | Posted: 8/11/2005 11:37:50 PM | Message Detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=844

Just as I expected, Yoshimitsu wins. And yay for Kuma votes.
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Lonely Angel
http://img124.imageshack.us/img124/973/rockwin026il.gif
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/11/2005 11:45:13 PM | Message Detail
Can anyone give me the ID of the poll about the Nintendo characters?

This one?:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=634
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/11/2005 11:45:58 PM | Message Detail
I'm saving that Nintendo poll for any time anyone tries to use one of these to justify a character's strength.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/11/2005 11:49:21 PM | Message Detail
88.88% of the brackets have Squall over Geno.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/11/2005 11:49:44 PM | Message Detail
The hell?

Yoshi first is correct, but Luigi > Mario > Bowser is just wrong.

At least Waluigi is last...
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Squall vs. Geno - Bracket: Squall - Vote: Geno (20/23)
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/11/2005 11:50:19 PM | Message Detail
Wow, Jin doubled Kazuya. Something to think about. I don't mean to say that he's gonna line up in the contest appropriately, but he'll probably do well better than Kazuya. Kazuya seems middle of the road whereas Jin is a favorite.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/11/2005 11:50:49 PM | Message Detail
Waluigi getting any votes at all is wrong though. I'm hopinh they were all just joke votes.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/11/2005 11:52:54 PM | Message Detail
Oh Yoshi vote mis-clicks. Toad doing so well also baffles me.

And 86.33% for Squally-poo.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Squall vs. Geno - Bracket: Squall - Vote: Geno (20/23)
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/11/2005 11:54:29 PM | Message Detail
Toad has a reasonable fanbase out there. I know we can't really infer anything from that poll, but I really would take him over every character he's above in that poll.

Toad for SC2k6!
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/11/2005 11:55:06 PM | Message Detail
Why? I figured the Nintendo fanbase liked him pretty well.

I don't want to use that poll as any kind of indicator or anything, but maybe trying to get Peach into the contest next year wouldn't be a great idea.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/11/2005 11:57:25 PM | Message Detail
Why? I figured the Nintendo fanbase liked him pretty well.

Because I don't like him. And if things don't go my way, it baffles me.

Unless it's something like Knuckles winning.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Squall vs. Geno - Bracket: Squall - Vote: Geno (20/23)
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/11/2005 11:58:28 PM | Message Detail

I don't want to use that poll as any kind of indicator or anything, but maybe trying to get Peach into the contest next year wouldn't be a great idea.


Yes it would. If that poll is right, people would end up overrating her. If it's wrong, she ends up fairly strong anyway.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 8/11/2005 11:58:52 PM | Message Detail
Heh @ just missing out on 100000.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 8/11/2005 11:59:31 PM | Message Detail
Yep, I wish this match could have gone to 100k. Oh well. At least Geno avoided the tripling.
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:00:15 AM | Message Detail
Sonic the Hedgehog 72.73% 8
Jin Kazama 27.27% 3
TOTAL VOTES 11
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Squall vs. Geno - Bracket: Squall - Vote: Geno (20/23)
From: Eggplant Lord | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:00:21 AM | Message Detail
Vote Accepted
Sonic the Hedgehog 66.67% 4
Jin Kazama 33.33% 2
TOTAL VOTES 6

///
I simply must say I'm completely out of ideas for a sig!
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:00:23 AM | Message Detail
Sonic the Hedgehog 75% 6
Jin Kazama 25% 2
TOTAL VOTES 8

89.12% of the brackets had Squall advancing. Dayum.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:00:33 AM | Message Detail
89.12%? Seems a bit low...
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:00:49 AM | Message Detail
We lost three perfects. Heh.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:00:51 AM | Message Detail
Sonic the Hedgehog 78.79% 26
Jin Kazama 21.21% 7
TOTAL VOTES 33


Gooooo Sonic!!!
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:01:23 AM | Message Detail
lol 3 perfects picked Geno.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:01:32 AM | Message Detail
Looks like I was pretty close.

And looks like Ceej missed an "L" in Squall's name in the prediction percentage box.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:02:02 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, I voted Jin. I kinda like Sonic, but for some reason I never vote for him. And I doubt things will change this contest.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:02:07 AM | Message Detail
Good start for Sonic :)
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness
From: consolefreak | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:02:42 AM | Message Detail
This one?:

Yes, thanks.

I'm saving that Nintendo poll for any time anyone tries to use one of these to justify a character's strength.

It can show whom SFF would favour.

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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 21/23. Today: Squall, tomorrow: Sonic
From: FrostHarpy | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:04:54 AM | Message Detail
Come on Sonic! Make Jin weaker than Terry!
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Lonely Angel
http://img124.imageshack.us/img124/973/rockwin026il.gif
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:05:22 AM | Message Detail
Sonic is going to turn this into a quadrupling really quickly.
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:05:39 AM | Message Detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
23-----25-------88.0000000
22-----250------92.8000000
21-----1621-----93.7692782
20-----3705-----92.6315789
19-----5445-----91.8457300
18-----6085-----90.2218570
17-----5456-----89.3511730
16-----4162-----87.6982220
15-----2846-----87.5263528
14-----1837-----86.6086010
13-----1041-----85.6868396
12-----562------85.7651246
11-----279------82.0788530
10-----134------88.8059701
9------57-------78.9473684
8------29-------93.1034483
7------22-------40.9090909
6------32-------18.7500000
5------41-------2.4390244
4------55-------1.8181818
3------59-------0.0000000
2------47-------2.1276596
1------3--------0.0000000

Only 25 perfects, and they still didn't get the match 100% correct. The best performers were the -2s this time.

Four people fell off the Top 50 today. scarface2436, MegamanVSBass, J_A_C_K and WhatTheDarn did not have Squall beating Geno.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:05:52 AM | Message Detail
Sonic over 80% on the first update. This is going to be ugly.

I'm predicting him with 84-85%
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Sonic vs, Jin - Bracket: Sonic - Vote: Sonic (21/24)
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:06:12 AM | Message Detail
Already at 80%

Even if this is the board vote it looks like Jin is going to get quadruple.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/12/2005 12:06:38 AM | Message Detail
Sonic's looking good right now. This is about how I would have expected him to perform.

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Cloud: What’s going to happen to the Planet?
Sephiroth: That… will be for you to decide.
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