At the 15:40 mark, this match has 74,761 votes.

Ness/CJ - 74,784
Bowser/Chun-Li - 75,946
Magus/Knuckles - 76,213
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

There's also the Mega Man Adjustments, too.

Well, Knuckles seems to be acting like it happened. Besides, that's not necessarily "SFF." People just assumed it was. We can't say for sure yet.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

But a few other aren't, although, there may be other reasons.
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/

To be honest though, I no longer buy the adjustments that MM got last year.

Btw, Knux -> Snake -> MM -> Link is as clean as "clean" can be.
So Knux's 2k4 value of 24.07% on Link 2k3 is legitimate.

While it's certainly possible for Knux to regain some the strength that he had in 2k3, it's mostly Magus' fault that yesterday happened.

An interesting note is that Magus' un-adjusted value in 2k4 is 24.09% on Link 2k3, if you ignore SFF, that's close enough to explain what happened yesterday.

If you consider the strong possibility that Magus must have suffered some amount of SFF against Crono, then it became clear as day that Magus must've decreased between 2k4 and 2k5, in addition to being severely over-rated in 2k3.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

While it's certainly possible for Knux to regain some the strength that he had in 2k3, it's mostly Magus' fault that yesterday happened.

Knuckles has NO reason to lose and gain strength... And 2k3 was the year that he performed the WORST against Snake. All of Knuckles fluctuations are directly tied to Snake. Wherever Snake goes, he goes.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

That's another problem with Knuckles. His strength could actually be much higher than what our X-stats show, simply because we have barely have an idea of what he can do to anyone besides Solid Snake.

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SC2k5: 21/23
Today: Squall vs. Geno

You know... since Knux last appeared in a contest Sonic Mega Collection Plus for Xbox and PS2 were released. It's possible that he recieved some sort of a boost, although I thinks it's most reasonable to attribute MOST of it to Magus' being overranked, but Knux really could have increased some.

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

All I'm asking is...why were the Mega Man adjustments made? I remember them being criticized when they were first brought up, and they don't look too good now.

Could it be, perhaps, that Link blows out basically any mid-carder/elite that isn't Cloud/Sephy by around the same margin? I know that seems a little strange, and I'm likely missing matches where that's untrue, but I think there's more to Link/Magus than meets the eye.
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I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon

His strength could actually be much higher than what our X-stats show, simply because we have barely have an idea of what he can do to anyone besides Solid Snake.

Unless he magically underperforms against Solid Snake, it's unlikely that he's stronger than we think.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

here's another crazy theory:

maybe Knuckles fans lost faith in him because he was always destined to lose to Solid Snake. now, with his easiest run to the Sweet 16 he has ever had, Knuckles fans have greatly regained their faith in him and cam eout in full force.

>_>

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Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!

If you keep Kefka constant from 04 to Spring 05, I get Knux to be 27.02%, which is a little improvement.
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/

cyko wins the internet

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

Unless he magically underperforms against Solid Snake, it's unlikely that he's stronger than we think.

Or, *cough* another hole in the stats' transitivity (or whatever the hell it's actually termed)?
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I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon

maybe Knuckles fans lost faith in him because he was always destined to lose to Solid Snake.

Then he wouldn't have had his best performance against Snake last year.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

*cough Sonic Mega Collection Plus cough*

Seriously, everyone loves Knux from the good ol' Genesis days, it could bring a younger audience to it.

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Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

Knuckles has NO reason to lose and gain strength... And 2k3 was the year that he performed the WORST against Snake. All of Knuckles fluctuations are directly tied to Snake. Wherever Snake goes, he goes.

He ranked higher in 2k3 than he did in 2k4.

And 2k4 proved that Knux isn't joined at the hips to Snake.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

*cough Sonic Mega Collection Plus cough*

Seriously, everyone loves Knux from the good ol' Genesis days, it could bring a younger audience to it.

The original Sonic Mega Collection has been out since 2003, and has sold quite well.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

since Knux last appeared in a contest Sonic Mega Collection Plus for Xbox and PS2 were released. It's possible that he recieved some sort of a boost,

Then why would my good friend Mega Man drop after receiving such a collection?

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I'm just curious... why am I so good?
http://img159.imageshack.us/img159/480/kensa34mr.gif

I think Knuckles rising for a collection, and not a new game, is preposterous. His overperformance on Snake was likely due to Snake dropping than him rising, and his strength yesterday was probably fueled by the influx of casuals as compared to 2k4.
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I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon

Then why would my good friend Mega Man drop after receiving such a collection?

Because stats do not stay exactly the same.

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SC2k5: 21/23
Today: Squall vs. Geno

Squall is always hanging around the edge of that Tripling.. Hopefully he finishes the match with a Tripling..
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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka

Because stats do not stay exactly the same.

No, I'm saying that it's ridiculous to claim Knuckles gained from a collection and Mega Man dropped by nearly 4% because of it. That doesn't make a lick of sense.

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I'm just curious... why am I so good?
http://img159.imageshack.us/img159/480/kensa34mr.gif

i cant speak for the average voter, but the collection is what caused me to vote for knuckles. I loved the sonic team in the 90s but the adventure series+heroes sucked ass and basicaly killed my fandom. The mega collection reminded me why i loved the series.
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*pacing back in forth waiting for: advance wars ds, twilight princess, ffxii, kingdom hearts 2, castlevania dos*

Yes, we can talk about anecdotal evidence all we want, but the fact is that Knuckles has stayed relatively consistent with Snake through the contests, and he did best last year--but Snake also ostensibly dropped last year. If you want to have him rise, you also have to factor in the Snake drop, OR you have to assume that Snake didn't drop, and Mega Man actually rose, which is hard to swallow (unless, of course, you're into the whole collection = increasing thing, where it makes sense). Of course, then there's Link...

...but frankly, **** Link. At this rate, he's seeming to make as little sense as Sephiroth.
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I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon

i cant speak for the average voter, but the collection is what caused me to vote for knuckles. I loved the sonic team in the 90s but the adventure series+heroes sucked ass and basicaly killed my fandom. The mega collection reminded me why i loved the series.

that totally makes sense to me, especially considering how strongly disliked the current 3-D Sonic games are by fans of the series.

however, i really would like to know why Megaman didn't get a similar boost last year. i really thought the Anniversary Collection would give him a boost instead of dropping him considerably. who knows, though - maybe the Megaman Anniversary Collection boost won't kick in until this year.

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Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!

No, I'm saying that it's ridiculous to claim Knuckles gained from a collection and Mega Man dropped by nearly 4% because of it. That doesn't make a lick of sense.

I doubt either collection did anything, this is just another case of varying votes.

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SC2k5: 21/23
Today: Squall vs. Geno

maybe the Megaman Anniversary Collection boost won't kick in until this year.

Perhaps this is fanboyism talking, but I'm almost expecting Mega Man to at least be back on 2003 levels this year.

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I'm just curious... why am I so good?
http://img159.imageshack.us/img159/480/kensa34mr.gif

Why is Squall < Vivi so much harder to believe than Magus < Knuckles? I'm not understanding why a Squall drop over the span of two years is so unbelievable.

Assuming that 2k5 Magus = 2k4 Magus is even more ridiculous than assuming 2k3 Magus = 2k4 Magus. Him dropping between 2k3 and 2k4, and then again between 2k4 and 2k5, makes much more sense.

No, I'm saying that it's ridiculous to claim Knuckles gained from a collection and Mega Man dropped by nearly 4% because of it. That doesn't make a lick of sense.

Well, MMAC made me like Mega Man less. I hadn't played an original Mega Man games in ~15 years, but I love the Mega Man X games. Plain old Mega Man just sucks in comparison.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Why is Squall < Vivi so much harder to believe than Magus < Knuckles?

There's absolutely no evidence for it, whatsoever. Plus, with the way the FF fanbase operates, Vivi would not beat Squall.

Plus, you have to tell me that DK would beat Kirby when he's NEVER ranked above him outside of these unadjusted stats which were obviously tainted by SFF, and you're essentially telling me that 40% on Zelda is worth more than 41% on Samus.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Assuming that 2k5 Magus = 2k4 Magus is even more ridiculous than assuming 2k3 Magus = 2k4 Magus. Him dropping between 2k3 and 2k4, and then again between 2k4 and 2k5, makes much more sense.

There's nothing wrong with Magus 2k5 = Magus 2k4. It's Magus 2k3 that's the problem. If you hold Magus constant from 2k4 to 2k5 at just below Knuckles, Luca Blight also becomes fairly constant. If Magus' 2k3 ranking is correct, you then have to deal with Tidus and Sam Fisher dropping and the fact that Ganondorf not getting a boost like Link and Zelda seemed to have recieved.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Why is Squall < Vivi so much harder to believe than Magus < Knuckles?

Because the fanbase is NOT going to operate that way. I cannot EVER imagine a situation where Squall is losing to Vivi. Zelda would not come close to doing to Squall what she did to Vivi.

I'm not understanding why a Squall drop over the span of two years is so unbelievable.

Well, MMAC made me like Mega Man less. I hadn't played an original Mega Man games in ~15 years, but I love the Mega Man X games. Plain old Mega Man just sucks in comparison.

You just didn't appear to like the old Mega Man games to begin with. If that was the case, you weren't going to like ports of the old games onto a new console. But the idea behind the Sonic Mega Collection helping Knuckles is the same as the Mega Man Anniversary Collection. Even if it didn't help him, it shouldn't have dropped by 4%.

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Cloud: What’s going to happen to the Planet?
Sephiroth: That… will be for you to decide.

Vivi > Squall seems outside even this contest's realm of possibility. With Magus, there were a few signals (2003 against Link being a possible overperformance, Luca's performance this Spring, etc) that hardly any of us pursued in discussion, and that none of us used to influence our decision against Knuckles. I know that hindsight is always 20/20, but those signs were there.

With Squall, it's a different ballgame. Breaking 40% on Samus, 60% on Luigi, and 55% on Kirby seem like too much for Vivi to handle, and we've never seen anything that hints at those performances being flukes of some sort.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

There's absolutely no evidence for it, whatsoever.

The unadjusted stats are evidence. You can't just ignore them completely. Squall and Cloud aren't even from the same game, and you're saying that match had more SFF than Magus/Crono?

Plus, with the way the FF fanbase operates, Vivi would not beat Squall.

How does it operate? I've never seen anything other than "Stronger Characters SFF weaker characters". Vivi also seems particularly resilient to being SFF'd, if you look at his match vs. Sephiroth.

Plus, you have to tell me that DK would beat Kirby when he's NEVER ranked above him outside of these unadjusted stats which were obviously tainted by SFF, and you're essentially telling me that 40% on Zelda is worth more than 41% on Samus.

I'm not saying that at all. I'm saying that Squall could've gone down from 2003. Your arguments about 41% on Samus would be as silly as someone arguing that Mega Man will beat Samus because he got 49% on Sephiroth, while she only got 47%. Things change over time, something nobody seems to want to acknowledge.

If you hold Magus constant from 2k4 to 2k5 at just below Knuckles, Luca Blight also becomes fairly constant

People have been saying that that gives Luca Blight a boost, which makes no sense at all.

If Magus' 2k3 ranking is correct, you then have to deal with Tidus and Sam Fisher dropping and the fact that Ganondorf not getting a boost like Link and Zelda seemed to have recieved.

I'm not saying that it's correct. I'm just saying that it's not as if he's the same strength now that he was in 2003. Zelda and Link got 3% boosts, right? And the Spring has Ganon at 35.97%. Put him down to 33% for SC2k3 then. That still means Magus 2k3 > Magus 2k4 > Magus 2k5, but they're somewhat closer together.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

I'm confident that Magus decreased between 2k4 and 2k5, unless you completely believed that Magus' un-adjusted 2k4 value is legitimate.

Knux is only at 24.07% on Link 2k3, for Magus 2k4 to be equal to Magus 2k5, you'll have to put Magus 2k4 at his un-adjusted value, 24.09% on Link 2k3.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

The unadjusted stats are evidence.

A 7% drop over the span of one year is ridiculous. It's awful evidence. Squall isn't Lara Croft.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

A 7% drop over the span of one year is ridiculous. It's awful evidence. Squall isn't Lara Croft.

While I don't buy Squall dropped by a whopping 7%, a 2%-4% decrease seems reasonable.

Try adjusting Squall using a constant Kirby or a constant Bomberman.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

The unadjusted stats are evidence. You can't just ignore them completely. Squall and Cloud aren't even from the same game, and you're saying that match had more SFF than Magus/Crono?

You cannot trust something that does not take into account a fanbase overlap like Cloud/Squall either. It'd be foolish to trust those when there was blatant SFF in that match. Thinking there wasn't just doesn't make any sense.

The unadjusted stats are nice to look at, as are the adjusted stats. But that isn't "evidence" by any means.

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Cloud: What’s going to happen to the Planet?
Sephiroth: That… will be for you to decide.

Kinda strange that you can't do both, huh? One of them possibly wasn't constant in 2003, so you're just jumping to conclusions one way or the other.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

You just didn't appear to like the old Mega Man games to begin with. If that was the case, you weren't going to like ports of the old games onto a new console. But the idea behind the Sonic Mega Collection helping Knuckles is the same as the Mega Man Anniversary Collection. Even if it didn't help him, it shouldn't have dropped by 4%.

No, I did like old Mega Man to begin with, but after 15 years, they're not fun like they used to be.

And it didn't drop him by 4%, then. He did that on his own.

Because the fanbase is NOT going to operate that way. I cannot EVER imagine a situation where Squall is losing to Vivi. Zelda would not come close to doing to Squall what she did to Vivi.

The fanbase doesn't work that way...again, that makes no sense. Vivi suffered far less SFF than Squall did.

A 7% drop over the span of one year is ridiculous. It's awful evidence. Squall isn't Lara Croft.


I said it was evidence, not proof. Just like Magus vs. Crono was evidence, and not proof. Squall's performance against Cloud could be half SFF, and half drop, and then he could've dropped the other half between 2k4 and 2k5.

You cannot trust something that does not take into account a fanbase overlap like Cloud/Squall either. It'd be foolish to trust those when there was blatant SFF in that match.

Again, what about Sephiroth vs. Vivi? You ignore that again and again, when FFIX's relative weakness compared to FFVIII should've meant even more SFF.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

SFF is not proportional, you know. There is undoubtedly a larger overlap with the fanbases of FFVII and FFVIII (and Cloud and Squall, for that matter) than the overlap between FFVII and FFIX (and Sephiroth and Vivi).
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

And with this match being constant since god knows when, here's my winners and losers of the last eight matches:

1 - Knuckles

Well, duh. Nobody gave him a chance, and he beats Magus. Noble Nine contender? Meh, it means nothing. Good for those of us who thought Magus was overrated, bad for those who've got him winning the division, great for the contest as a whole

2 - Donkey Kong

Discussed briefly as a match that might have an outside chance of an upset. Well, it was discussed a damn sight more than Magus-Knuckles which wasn't hard. In any case, DK wins at a canter.

3 - Vincent Valentine

Regardless of the strength of the opponent, which isn't known, 79% still looks strong, and is absolutely shocking for those of us who had Kerrigan in the bracket. Wah.

4 - CATS

Grabbing 30%+ on Master Chief post Halo 2 is a victory. All your votes are belong to CATS. Someone give him a winnable match next year. Hell, we all know Link makes the last 16 anyway, just set him as the 1 seed with CATS/Freeman as the 8/9. The universe may implode but we don't care.

5 - Dante

Put aside Terra with ease, grabbing a huge chunk of votes en route to a very comfortable victory. Shame that we have no idea what that means for his next round match, or what effect the new game will have

6 - Crono

Tripled Zidane, which is is an impressive performance regardless of the quality of opposition. Zidane might have the quality to win a match given the right opponent, but not this one.

7 - Squall

Geno was always fodder in my mind, and Squall make Geno look exactly like that. Some small justice for the SF2 fans perhaps?

8 - Tommy Vercetti

Lost the early vote, gradually gained, gradually gained, god this is so slow, oops there's a vote stuffer, Vercetti wins, end of story. Did better than CJ by winning a match I guess, before becoming Crono-fodder. Very much the Val Venis of the contest, jobber to the stars.

9 - Master Chief

Won a match, but that's it. Just about doubling CATS is nothing to be proud of.

10 - Kefka

Looks like the decent performance against Wesker in the spring and the whole run was a flash in the pan.

11 - Zidane

Scraped together 22,000 votes against the pick of this part of the draw.

12 - Terra

Lost big to Dante. Although Dante doesn't just win, apart from to Tails... Q*Bert managed a better percentage.

13 - Sam Fisher

A win against Donkey Kong was at best a long shot, but he didn't even come close to that and just about avoided being doubled by what is, at best, a mid-carder.

14 - Geno

I always thought he'd fail horribly given a chance at a contest. He was, and Squall gets a help-yourself vote grabbing opportunity. Fodderific.

15 - Magus

Oh dear. Oh dear oh dear. When you're picked to win your division, you don't lose in the first round. It's a schoolboy error. It's choking. It's a damn good job there's a bigger failure in this section.

16 - Sarah Kerrigan

Take Mass Carriers, add a Zerg rush and a sprinkling of kekekeke, and that's what Kerrigan was on the receiving end of. This was failure of the highest calibre.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

And once more, Crono vs. Magus should have greater overlap than Squall vs. Cloud, but people say Magus got SFF'd far less than Squall did. Why?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

I said it was evidence, not proof.

Just FYI, evidence = proof.

Crono vs. Magus was a strong indicator that Magus doesn't deserve his value in 2k3, but it's neither proof nor evidence.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

No, I did like old Mega Man to begin with, but after 15 years, they're not fun like they used to be.

I can't say I agree with that, but we'll leave it alone.

And it didn't drop him by 4%, then. He did that on his own.

No, I didn't mean IT dropped him by that much, but to say that Knuckles was boosted by the Collection while Mega Man dropped after his doesn't make any sense.

The fanbase doesn't work that way...again, that makes no sense. Vivi suffered far less SFF than Squall did.

Vivi not suffering SFF does not mean that he can beat Squall. It doesn't even begin to imply that. He's had a whole one match against Sephiroth, who appeared to have weakened between 2003 and 2004, where there doesn't look to be any SFF. This doesn't mean he's immune to it no matter the opponent.

Again, what about Sephiroth vs. Vivi? You ignore that again and again, when FFIX's relative weakness compared to FFVIII should've meant even more SFF.

I never even brought up SFF as a means for Squall to win. He would be able to do that completely on his own. And again, one match that didn't appear to have any SFF does not mean that Vivi is not capable of being SFFed. It certainly helps his case, but you cannot say for certain that he's not capable of being SFFed. Hell, what does SFF have to do with anything? Squall wouldn't need any of it to beat Vivi.

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Cloud: What’s going to happen to the Planet?
Sephiroth: That… will be for you to decide.

Crono vs. Magus should have greater overlap than Squall vs. Cloud, but people say Magus got SFF'd far less than Squall did. Why?

And if Link SFF'd Mega Man, it was more than he did against Mario or Samus. It doesn't always make sense, but it happens.

I don't know where people get this idea that random large fluctuations are commonplace. They're not.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

I never even brought up SFF as a means for Squall to win. He would be able to do that completely on his own. And again, one match that didn't appear to have any SFF does not mean that Vivi is not capable of being SFFed. It certainly helps his case, but you cannot say for certain that he's not capable of being SFFed. Hell, what does SFF have to do with anything? Squall wouldn't need any of it to beat Vivi.

Yeah, I'd definitely take Squall over Vivi, but all this talk about "that's not how the fanbase works" and "there was OBVIOUSLY more SFF in Cloud vs. Squall than in Crono vs. Magus" is just completely ridiculous.

And if Link SFF'd Mega Man, it was more than he did against Mario or Samus. It doesn't always make sense, but it happens.

...which by itself is evidence (NOT proof, they aren't the same) that Link didn't SFF Mega Man.

I don't know where people get this idea that random large fluctuations are commonplace. They're not.

Yeah, I know. Which is why Crash helps out the theory of Sephiroth/Frog overperformance, since his contest performance is then a downward trend instead of fluctuations.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Yeah, I'd definitely take Squall over Vivi, but all this talk about "that's not how the fanbase works" and "there was OBVIOUSLY more SFF in Cloud vs. Squall than in Crono vs. Magus" is just completely ridiculous.

How so? Magus vs Crono works out as if there was no SFF, Cloud vs Squall works out as if there way. As a result, Cloud vs Squall had more SFF then Crono vs Magus. It's a simple as that.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

but all this talk about "that's not how the fanbase works" and "there was OBVIOUSLY more SFF in Cloud vs. Squall than in Crono vs. Magus" is just completely ridiculous.

But that IS how the fanbase works. Vivi would not beat Squall. There's no reason for it to happen.

Well, you'd think Cloud/Sephiroth would have a lot of SFF considering how Link/Ganondorf and Mario/Bowser went, too. It would just seem to indicate that the people who would vote for Magus would be less willing to change their minds and vote for Crono.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

I really feel sorry for Geno. Seriously, he's from Super Mario RPG and losing THIS badly? I guess its SFF, but still...poor Geno ;_;
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.