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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 199
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 8/11/2005 1:40:56 PM | Message Detail
You are crazy if you think Vincent (A FF Character) will get 7% or 75% on Dante. If he got 75% wouldn't that put him above Cloud?
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When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
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From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/11/2005 1:41:08 PM | Message Detail
75% on Dante would put Vincent higher than Cloud and Link.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: consolefreak | Posted: 8/11/2005 1:42:22 PM | Message Detail
So people think Geno is noticeably weaker than Terra then?

I would think so, personally. Unless Terra is noticeably weaker than Kefka.
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 21/23. Today: Squall, tomorrow: Sonic
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/11/2005 1:42:58 PM | Message Detail
Unless Terra is noticeably weaker than Kefka.

All signs point to that being so.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/11/2005 1:43:37 PM | Message Detail
Was there ever any doubt? Oh yeah, there was. Haha.
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/11/2005 1:44:11 PM | Message Detail
Unless Terra is noticeably weaker than Kefka.

She has to be or Dante is now in contention to win the main bracket.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/11/2005 1:44:55 PM | Message Detail
Would it be outlandish if I were to say I think Vincent will pull 7% on Dante?

Best post in the topic. Everytime I read it, it cracks me up.

And I'd put Terra over Geno easily too. She might have bombed against Dante, but she couldn't possibly be weak enough to lose to Geno.

Oh, and Geno is now avoiding the tripling.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Squall vs. Geno - Bracket: Squall - Vote: Geno (20/23)
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/11/2005 1:45:54 PM | Message Detail
but she couldn't possibly be weak enough to lose to Geno.

You know, unless Dante is much stronger than Squall, they are likely very close together. Based on their 2004 versions, they're practically equal.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/11/2005 1:48:36 PM | Message Detail
And I'd put Terra over Geno easily too. She might have bombed against Dante, but she couldn't possibly be weak enough to lose to Geno.

Terra is currently projected to have a close match with Ultros. A close match with Geno isn't that unlikely.

Oh, and Geno is now avoiding the tripling.

Awesome. Hope he can hold it.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/11/2005 1:48:36 PM | Message Detail
You know, unless Dante is much stronger than Squall, they are likely very close together. Based on their 2004 versions, they're practically equal.

If that match were to take place and the stats had Geno over Terra, I would ignore them for that match and put Terra as the winner.

Then again, the more I think about it, the less crazy it seems for Geno to pull out a win. Heh.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Squall vs. Geno - Bracket: Squall - Vote: Geno (20/23)
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/11/2005 1:53:05 PM | Message Detail
If Lloyd can be so close to Mithos (and it's getting increasingly more likely that he is), then I don't see why Terra could be so close to Ultros. We're only denying it because it doesn't seem to make sense.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: consolefreak | Posted: 8/11/2005 1:53:10 PM | Message Detail
All signs point to that being so.

All signs point to it partly being so, and partly Dante increasing.

Was there ever any doubt? Oh yeah, there was. Haha.

Your arrogance is not charming, not fitting in a debating topic and certainly not funny. "noticeably" is a very loose word. You don't have a clue what exactly I meant.


She has to be or Dante is now in contention to win the main bracket.

It's probably a bit of both. Terra is weaker, but Dante increased.

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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 21/23. Today: Squall, tomorrow: Sonic
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/11/2005 1:53:36 PM | Message Detail
Er, why Terra COULDN'T be, that should say.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/11/2005 1:54:39 PM | Message Detail
All signs point to it partly being so, and partly Dante increasing.

There really can't be any signs of that since we've never seen Terra before. However, it's very hard to deny that she's very far from Kefka. Dante wouldn't even be expected to get 60% on him, much less 70.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/11/2005 1:54:55 PM | Message Detail
It's not meant to be charming. It's not even meant to be arrogant. If I said Link could beat CATS, that's not arrogance isi t?
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"No, you see. Here's the problem. You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do." - Tom Cruise
From: consolefreak | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:00:10 PM | Message Detail
There really can't be any signs of that since we've never seen Terra before. However, it's very hard to deny that she's very far from Kefka. Dante wouldn't even be expected to get 60% on him, much less 70.

Even if Terra is at Ultros' level, Dante shows a minimal increase.
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 21/23. Today: Squall, tomorrow: Sonic
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:00:37 PM | Message Detail
And Squall's got the tripling again, baby.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:01:17 PM | Message Detail
Even if Terra is at Ultros' level, Dante shows a minimal increase

She's actually a little stronger than Ultros, though nearly equal.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: consolefreak | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:02:02 PM | Message Detail
It's not meant to be charming. It's not even meant to be arrogant. If I said Link could beat CATS, that's not arrogance isi t?

No, no it's not. But it is arrogant to totally ridicule my post on equating Terra with Kefka, when you didn't even read it properly.
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 21/23. Today: Squall, tomorrow: Sonic
From: consolefreak | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:02:41 PM | Message Detail
She's actually a little stronger than Ultros, though nearly equal.

Why would you think that? I would think Terra to be quite a bit stronger than Ultros.
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 21/23. Today: Squall, tomorrow: Sonic
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:03:21 PM | Message Detail
And I would expect Lloyd to be clearly stronger than Mithos, but it doesn't look like he is.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:03:52 PM | Message Detail
Even if Terra is at Ultros' level, Dante shows a minimal increase.

Negliable, the extraploated standings aren't accurate enough to conclude anything about a gap that small.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: consolefreak | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:06:17 PM | Message Detail
And I would expect Lloyd to be clearly stronger than Mithos, but it doesn't look like he is.

The match pic in Kefka - Wesker seems like a possible explanation. There is, however, no justification in Ultros = Terra.
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 21/23. Today: Squall, tomorrow: Sonic
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:06:53 PM | Message Detail
The match pic in Kefka - Wesker seems like a possible explanation.

And yet Luca Blight indicates that it isn't.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: consolefreak | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:06:53 PM | Message Detail
Negliable, the extraploated standings aren't accurate enough to conclude anything about a gap that small.

Yes, but Ultros = Terra? I'd predict Terra quite a bit stronger.
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 21/23. Today: Squall, tomorrow: Sonic
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:07:55 PM | Message Detail
Yes, but Ultros = Terra? I'd predict Terra quite a bit stronger.

Well, you have to remember that Ultros had a sprite (and people keep wanting to believe a sprite helps these old school Square characters out) and Terra didn't.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: consolefreak | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:08:09 PM | Message Detail
And yet Luca Blight indicates that it isn't.

So Mithos > Lloyd? You can't possibly believe so.
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 21/23. Today: Squall, tomorrow: Sonic
From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:08:58 PM | Message Detail
Since you people seem to know a lot about contests.I have Samus over Mario.I don't care about bracket anyway,but I want to ask if Samus has any change against Mario.And I have Crono as the winner.Can someone also tell me if this is possible?Or Mario will beat them all?
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From: consolefreak | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:09:00 PM | Message Detail
Well, you have to remember that Ultros had a sprite (and people keep wanting to believe a sprite helps these old school Square characters out) and Terra didn't.

Yeah, but Ultros? Isn't he like a shop owner as opposed to Terra, the first character you encounter?
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 21/23. Today: Squall, tomorrow: Sonic
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:09:55 PM | Message Detail
Maybe the ToS fanbase is so small that a few members of it not showing up for a poll involving a ToS character can make a difference.
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Volgin is one sexy beast....
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:10:00 PM | Message Detail
So Mithos > Lloyd? You can't possibly believe so.

Either way, I don't believe they're very far off at all. There's more reason to believe Lloyd is much stronger than Mithos than that Terra is much stronger than Ultros.

I think Wesker benefitted from something against Lloyd, or Luca Blight simply benefitted from lower vote totals (as I would expect cult characters to do).
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:10:04 PM | Message Detail
The match pic in Kefka - Wesker seems like a possible explanation. There is, however, no justification in Ultros = Terra.

If Wesker underperformed against Kefka, Luca Blight jumps up significantly. There's no justification for Terra to be anywhere nearly as weak as she is, but if you do bring her up, Dante becomes unjustifiably strong.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: consolefreak | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:10:21 PM | Message Detail
Since you people seem to know a lot about contests.I have Samus over Mario.I don't care about bracket anyway,but I want to ask if Samus has any change against Mario.And I have Crono as the winner.Can someone also tell me if this is possible?Or Mario will beat them all?

Samus should win from Mario. She was predicted to last year, and since then she's got Metroid Prime 2 and the demo bundled with the DS.

However, I also think she'll handily beat Crono.
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 21/23. Today: Squall, tomorrow: Sonic
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:10:41 PM | Message Detail
Final Fantasy VI fans love Ultros, for whatever the reason.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:10:55 PM | Message Detail
Samus is the big favourite to win this contest.
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When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:11:45 PM | Message Detail
Not according to the leaderboard...
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:12:19 PM | Message Detail
Ah okay thanks.It seems strange though that Samus is the favorite,yet none of the 50 first candidates(I think) have her as the winner.Well anyway.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:13:15 PM | Message Detail
She's the board favorite.
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Volgin is one sexy beast....
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:13:59 PM | Message Detail
Ah okay thanks.It seems strange though that Samus is the favorite,yet none of the 50 first candidates(I think) have her as the winner.Well anyway.

That's because all the "smart" bracketmakers got killed on Ness vs CJ and especially on Knuckles vs Magus.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: consolefreak | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:14:28 PM | Message Detail
Either way, I don't believe they're very far off at all. There's more reason to believe Lloyd is much stronger than Mithos than that Terra is much stronger than Ultros.

But realistically, if all these characters were new, you'd predict Terra to be further off Ultros than Lloyd from Mithos, no? It is not entirely justifiable (that it's all Dante's increase), but to think Dante didn't increase at all seems very unlikely as well.


If Wesker underperformed against Kefka, Luca Blight jumps up significantly. There's no justification for Terra to be anywhere nearly as weak as she is, but if you do bring her up, Dante becomes unjustifiably strong.

So it's probably a bit of both. I'm sure Dante got stronger. The only way Squall can beat him is SFFing him IMO. (that is if Vincent doesn't win, in which case Squall would lose with rSFF).
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 21/23. Today: Squall, tomorrow: Sonic
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:15:28 PM | Message Detail
I don't have trouble believing Dante increased some, but he's still got quite a ways to go to reach Squall's level.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: andaca | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:15:32 PM | Message Detail
So Glad I was wrong about Geno. Yeah, he's still getting tripled, but I'm happy as anything this isn't worse.
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Hail to the Queen of Blades.
From: consolefreak | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:16:15 PM | Message Detail
The leaderboard right now is very misleading. People that have Knuckles over Magus probably just got lucky, there was no way to justify it beforehand.
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 21/23. Today: Squall, tomorrow: Sonic
From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:16:15 PM | Message Detail
Yeah,damn you Knuckles!Damn you!
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
From: I_Dont_Love_You | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:16:41 PM | Message Detail
I think everyone's trying their hardest to manipulate the stats in order to deny the truth. I won't allow it, so I shall state the truth here, loud and clear for the world to hear.

TERRA SUCKS.
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All user contests are wrong. All except mine, that is.
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=22809755
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:18:05 PM | Message Detail
I know this is the unadjusted stats, but what the hell.

17 Dante 27.33%
18 Vivi 27.05%
19 Squall Leonhart 24.58%


>_>


---
When this happened, all of us got PWND by Smurf
http://www.freewebs.com/vgcg/Knuckles.jpg
From: Gordon Finish | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:18:10 PM | Message Detail
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/10/2005 9:47:12 PM | Message Detail | #016
I kinda agree with BC here. I just kept my mouth shut about it. Seriously, I think we could re-piece Kefka/Vercetti vote by vote with what's been posted. When there are twice as many topics dedicated to one match than for the entire SC2K3, you know there's a problem.


More importantly, with that many posts, do we finally have an explanation for Knuckles > Magus?

And not 'votes aren't transitive.' It's too easy an answer, this match is too much of an anomaly, and the stats have worked too well in the past.

I personally think the fact that the most popular user this board has ever known makes the topics has had a lot to do with the insane activity. A lot of people 'discovered' the Stats simply because they saw an Ulti topic. (Which is not his fault -- although it would have helped if he had kept his analysis' within this topic, he couldn't know.)

Wouldn't have happened if he hadn't swooped the damn thing when Solarshadow went AWOL, though. Still say it should have gone to Slowflake or Ngamer. >.>

~Shake
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yoblazer:'I have you now!' <- Guru Champion.
From: consolefreak | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:18:19 PM | Message Detail
I don't have trouble believing Dante increased some, but he's still got quite a ways to go to reach Squall's level.

Yes, quite correct. And should they face, Squall would almost certainly win. FF always gets the SFF.

Anyway, Squall could've decreased a bit. Unlike Dante, he has no reason to go up.
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even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 21/23. Today: Squall, tomorrow: Sonic
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:18:44 PM | Message Detail
So it's probably a bit of both. I'm sure Dante got stronger. The only way Squall can beat him is SFFing him IMO. (that is if Vincent doesn't win, in which case Squall would lose with rSFF).

I don't think Dante increased that much. Even some of the lower elites would have problems cleanly beating Squall. If Dante did can beat Squall, it'll be a close match.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/11/2005 2:19:16 PM | Message Detail
The idea of Squall losing to Vivi handily is ludicrous, so I'm sure I don't have to tell you why his unadjusted number isn't correct.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
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