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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 199
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/10/2005 9:36:06 PM | Message Detail
*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Spring 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/27

All Time Extrapolated Standings:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/alltimexsts.htm



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

MWIS: I mean, this puts the biggest feasible dent into the validity of the X-Stats I've ever seen. We're now expected to believe Snake > Frog > Knuckles > Magus > Ganondorf > Tidus?



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251
From: Applekidjosh | Posted: 8/10/2005 9:36:33 PM | Message Detail
no post away?
---
No longer on the Leaderboard... but it was fun being on top of the world.
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 8/10/2005 9:37:08 PM | Message Detail
!yawA enihW

---
2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
World Champion: Gyruss, Link's Awakening, Mega Man X, Super Mario World, Zombies Ate My Neighbors
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/10/2005 9:37:11 PM | Message Detail
No Squall/Geno quote?

...whatever.
---
The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/10/2005 9:37:43 PM | Message Detail
Knuckles > Squall
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/10/2005 9:37:48 PM | Message Detail
MWIS: I mean, this puts the biggest feasible dent into the validity of the X-Stats I've ever seen. We're now expected to believe Snake > Frog > Knuckles > Magus > Ganondorf > Tidus?

That was meant to be the quote. Dunno what happened.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/10/2005 9:38:35 PM | Message Detail
And no opening quote?

"Is she your...girlfriend?"

"Yes."

"Squall, are you serious?!"

"I'm serious."

"Woo, I'm speechless."

"I'm seriously joking."

"Well, I guess that's a good one for you."
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: ExThaNemesis | Posted: 8/10/2005 9:39:26 PM | Message Detail
God I hate Squall.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/10/2005 9:39:55 PM | Message Detail
ExTha = Owned
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 8/10/2005 9:40:19 PM | Message Detail
Squall is cool.

---
2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
World Champion: Gyruss, Link's Awakening, Mega Man X, Super Mario World, Zombies Ate My Neighbors
From: BigCow | Posted: 8/10/2005 9:42:15 PM | Message Detail
A few comments, I've said it before and I'll say it again:

Group preferences are NOT transitive. It's been proved for democracies and in all kinds of situations. If Crono beats Mario, and Mario beats Sephiroth, Sephiroth could still beat Crono, etc. When you're talking about a ranking of 64 characters, you're talking about 2016 relations which may not be transitive. In other words, you don't need to just rank them all in a row of the best to the worst, you need to have an independent ranking for each pair of characters do it perfectly since you can't guarantee how the preferences for each group will be split up.

In general assuming things extrapolate nicely is a fair assumption and about the best you can do, but the fact that it works as well as it does is more of an anomaly than the fact it fails in a lot of situations.

And it seems like these topics have become more of a horse race of constantly posting updates and people arguing or bragging about the current match, rather than a focused discussion and analysis. I doubt there would be much benefit to reading the last 198 versions of this topic.
---
The Insane A-Team: Trivia XII team
Gamefaqs Fanfic Project Archive: http://www.rose-hulman.edu/~newheims/ffproj.htm
From: Mumei | Posted: 8/10/2005 9:42:58 PM | Message Detail
And it seems like these topics have become more of a horse race of constantly posting updates and people arguing or bragging about the current match, rather than a focused discussion and analysis. I doubt there would be much benefit to reading the last 198 versions of this topic.

At least not 192 - 198.

---
<_<
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/10/2005 9:44:04 PM | Message Detail

And it seems like these topics have become more of a horse race of constantly posting updates and people arguing or bragging about the current match, rather than a focused discussion and analysis. I doubt there would be much benefit to reading the last 198 versions of this topic.


It's only been like this for the last 100 topics or so.

That's not a good thing, is it?
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: BigCow | Posted: 8/10/2005 9:45:46 PM | Message Detail
I remember reading the old solarshadow topics, they had some good points and analyses from people. When you go through like 4 stats topics in a day for Kefka/Vercetti, you've stopped being a discussion topic and you're just another social topic.
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The Insane A-Team: Trivia XII team
Gamefaqs Fanfic Project Archive: http://www.rose-hulman.edu/~newheims/ffproj.htm
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/10/2005 9:45:56 PM | Message Detail
Only if you like horses. A lot.

---
Explicit Content.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/10/2005 9:47:12 PM | Message Detail
I kinda agree with BC here. I just kept my mouth shut about it. Seriously, I think we could re-piece Kefka/Vercetti vote by vote with what's been posted. When there are twice as many topics dedicated to one match than for the entire SC2K3, you know there's a problem.
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You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops. -Samus Aran
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/10/2005 9:48:22 PM | Message Detail
Instant updates were pretty much the beginning of the end... If updates were still every 15 minutes, and hadn't ever stopped being that way, I bet update topics would still exist, and this topic would still be more obscure.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/10/2005 9:48:36 PM | Message Detail
If there's one thing I hate about close matches these days is how fast the stats topic does fill up. You almost just have to ignore everything that was posted while you were gone and read what's being posted while you're actually here.

That's why I liked a match that is surprising, but at the same time is a blowout.

---
Takes nothing to realize your Ken.
http://img159.imageshack.us/img159/480/kensa34mr.gif
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/10/2005 9:50:01 PM | Message Detail
The other problem is that when debates do occur, they aren't debates anymore; they're arguments, complete with personal insults.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/10/2005 9:50:38 PM | Message Detail
Heck, look at the Chichiri vs sidharta thing going on right now.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: BigCow | Posted: 8/10/2005 9:52:37 PM | Message Detail
The SC2K3 topic took a month and four days or something, now we go through several a day.

Having an update or social topic is fine, particularly if people keep taking more interest in these matches, but discussion isn't possible when it happens on a minute by minute basis. It may be worth separating it into multiple topics at this point. Posting the update for what's happening in the poll at the moment is not a "stat." It's just running commentary
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The Insane A-Team: Trivia XII team
Gamefaqs Fanfic Project Archive: http://www.rose-hulman.edu/~newheims/ffproj.htm
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:11:54 PM | Message Detail
That the introduction of the extrapolated rankings would reduce overall analysis of each match shouldn't come as too big of a surprise.

It'd be great if people stopped posting the current score of the match altogether, but people cling to those special base 10 numbers like none other! :)
---
.nS) quote of the week:
"I have come to the conclusion that from now on your tournament should be referred to as TSCBWGFAQSTOC for short." - Snowster
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:13:41 PM | Message Detail
but people cling to those special base 10 numbers like none other! :)

Well, with instant updates now gone, that's less frequent. I'm kinda glad now, actually, even though I partook in it many times.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:15:40 PM | Message Detail
It'd be great if people stopped posting the current score of the match altogether, but people cling to those special base 10 numbers like none other!

Okay, now I'm going to start posting the match results when we hit hexadecimal milestones. ;)
---
"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:18:50 PM | Message Detail
Heh, I'm kinda ducking 198 myself right now. Not only are they arguing, but they are making a new argument for every single sentence of the other person. It gets kind of ridiculous when you have to make a response to every single word that another person says.

*waits for someone to come break this post down sentence by sentence*
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:20:36 PM | Message Detail
Heh, I'm kinda ducking 198 myself right now. Not only are they arguing, but they are making a new argument for every single sentence of the other person. It gets kind of ridiculous when you have to make a response to every single word that another person says.


Yeah, it's pretty bad... I think I'm just going to stop coming to this topic altogether... It's not appealing anymore. Maybe I'll check it in a couple of weeks and see how it is, but yesterday has really left a bad taste in my mouth, and I feel a lot of people here just lack the respect for others neccessary to keep this type of thing... good.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:21:16 PM | Message Detail
Ok good idea. From now on all match results must be posted in binary. Then no one will post them, because by the time anyone's converted them, the results will be long changed. =p
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I need to put something here.
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:24:14 PM | Message Detail
Just a thought:

Squall vs. Geno is going to tell us absolutely nothing tomorrow that we couldn't figure out ourselves.

Why don't we just take the day off, then, and not post in these topics? Perhaps it'll clear our heads.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Heroic Dr Wily | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:24:56 PM | Message Detail
Donkey Kong will beat Master Chief.
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:25:04 PM | Message Detail
Just a thought:

Squall vs. Geno is going to tell us absolutely nothing tomorrow that we couldn't figure out ourselves.

Why don't we just take the day off, then, and not post in these topics? Perhaps it'll clear our heads.


*watches Geno get 55% on Squall*

But seriously, that sounds like a good idea... Maybe I'll try that first, THEN decide if I want to stop for good.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:25:12 PM | Message Detail
This topic is unlikely to fill up fast anyway with tomorrow's match.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:26:02 PM | Message Detail
*yawn* So...what are people expecting out of tomorrow's match, anyway? I'm having a hard time figuring out where Geno should fall (partly because I've never played SMRPG), but based on what we saw out of Terra and Cecil, it seems like a tripling would be pretty reasonable.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:26:44 PM | Message Detail
At this point, if Geno gets over 30% tomorrow, I'd be surprised. And that's not just fanboyism talking.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:29:19 PM | Message Detail
I say it's 76-24.

And with that, see you guys later.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:30:18 PM | Message Detail
At this point, if Geno gets over 30% tomorrow, I'd be surprised. And that's not just fanboyism talking.

If anything I'm a geno fanboy. Hell I even tried to help rally nominations for him even though I'm sure it probably didn't do much and I agree. It sucks, but geno is probably high end fodder at best, and SFF isn't going to be kind to him. I hope he can look respectable, and possibly even do well enough to make it in again, but I sort of doubt he well unfortunately.
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996
From: WiggumFan267 | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:32:44 PM | Message Detail
I still like the argument that Geno gets Nintendo AND Square votes.... plus on teh thought of best system...

I guess you could say the same for CT... almost... Square game, Nintendo System
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Happily married to Alanna82 on Valentines Day 2005
Magus over Knuckles. Voting for: Knuckles. 21/22
From: WiggumFan267 | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:33:16 PM | Message Detail
Geno has as much chance at beating Squall as Knux does of Magus.

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Happily married to Alanna82 on Valentines Day 2005
Magus over Knuckles. Voting for: Knuckles. 21/22
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:33:26 PM | Message Detail
I can't say I see any SFF in that match. Geno is much more a Nintendo character than he is a Square character, regardless of who owns the rights.

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I'm just curious... why am I so good?
http://img159.imageshack.us/img159/480/kensa34mr.gif
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:33:39 PM | Message Detail
Square game, Nintendo System

That applies to anything old school square though.
---
Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:34:40 PM | Message Detail
CT certainly does seem to be the odd ball as far voting is concerned.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: potatow | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:35:22 PM | Message Detail
I was wondering (and maybe it's been brought up before), do you think having a match earlier on in the contest affects the match's result? By that, I mean, are people more likely to vote with their bracket earlier in the contest (especially in close contests), since they still have a chance, whereas later on in the contest, people might be more likely to vote for their actual favorite characters, since they probably are out of contention?
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:35:29 PM | Message Detail
It's still kinda strange how FFVI is so strong as a game and yet can't get a decent competitor in the contest.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:36:31 PM | Message Detail
It's still kinda strange how FFVI is so strong as a game and yet can't get a decent competitor in the contest.

That's only because we haven't seen locke in this thing yet!

Hey, I can dream...
---
Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:36:51 PM | Message Detail
It's still kinda strange how FFVI is so strong as a game and yet can't get a decent competitor in the contest.

Angel Kefka is arguably a decent competitor. I don't know why, really; he shouldn't be that much more recognizable, and you'd think that Kefka would be the type of guy that you wouldn't forget, but it certainly seems to be that way.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:37:11 PM | Message Detail
Locke is the one character I'd love to see do well from FFVI, but alas, it is likely not meant to be.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:37:16 PM | Message Detail
Geno might do better than a lot of people think. First you have the people who are happy to see him and vote just for him to do well, even though they might not vote for him the next time (given how most people think he will lose anyways). Then you have the Nintendo fanbase behind him. And it's not like Super Mario RPG is obscure or not well liked. People LOVED it and it sold well.

So I think Geno will perform like a solid Nintendo character. I could see him performing almost as well as Wario. Wario is projected to get 37.94 on 2k3 Squall. I can see Geno getting around 30%. I may be playing it safe though after seeing today's match.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:37:41 PM | Message Detail
Locke or Celes personally...or both!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:38:21 PM | Message Detail
Angel Kefka is arguably a decent competitor. I don't know why, really; he shouldn't be that much more recognizable, and you'd think that Kefka would be the type of guy that you wouldn't forget, but it certainly seems to be that way.

Well to be fair nobody else has ever had to perform in lettuce form.
---
Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996
From: Shivan Reincarnated | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:39:10 PM | Message Detail
Celes has good Amano art.

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Don't blame me. Blame yourself or God ~ Delita
Summer 2005 Score: 21/23: Squall vs Geno
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/10/2005 10:40:01 PM | Message Detail
Celes has good Amano art compared to the general quality of said art. I still remember how much people were complaining about how ugly the LttP/FFVI match picture was.

And thankfully, because of that, we had user-made pictures.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
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