"Holding Link constant from 2k2 all the way to 2k4 dropped almost everybody else like rocks, or even meteors.
It just doesn't begin to make sense."

Dammit, can't you read? I said I did that so that the numbers would line up with 2k4 stats! I said it more than once! READ!

"Did you ever specify that it's 2k4 Link?"

Yes, I did! Thank you for no longer the skipping details when I put them out there for you (it only took 'til the second time in the most recent post for you to get it, despite it being mentioned in other posts)

"And even if that's the case, Magus' and Tidus' drops are still waaay too huge."

I already mentioned that my adjustment was the most generous in favor of Magus there and that most evidence actually suggested a bigger fall.

"I know that, but by THAT much, they only share SSBM."

Yes, by that much. Look at what he did to CJ, we may have underestimated Seph/Auron SFF even.

"Except for famous ones like Sora vs. Ryu, the percentages usually ends up close to the stats."

Yeah, and if we count out the ones that aren't relatively close in the stats they fail more often.

"as I personally think Crono is always constant."

You're the only person I've ever seen say that.

"Work? What work?"

cn's work, which you so handily mention a line later.

"Isn't it possible that Magus overperformed against Ganon by the same amount that he did against Link?"

And that Ganon underperformed against Tidus almost as much as he did agaisnt Magus?

"That could've been due to FF VII fanbase's overly split nominations."

There was a cap last year, the effect of vote splits were therefor magnified last year.

"Btw, I'll wait until Vincent vs. Dante before saying that he's above Aeris."

I didn't say that in response to anything you have said. I believe it, personally, but I didn't say it.
---
Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

Pshh, logic, that's a good one leonhart.
---
Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

She should've dropped like a rock this year, by your logic. The game was released in late 2003.

My point is that Square chars always get weaker by the year after their first appearance, unless they have something recent going on for them.

Note that I'm not talking about Square as a company.

FF X-2 was released in late 2003, and it wasn't hyped, so it'll need some time to settle down and give Yuna an increase.

Just like the rest, however, once the excitement over that game died down, she'll start to decrease.

Akin to the KHF wearing off for the others.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

You guys are still arguing? Heh... between that and watching the travesty that is Alien vs. Predator.. I chose the latter.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

well, here's my theory on what the heck happened today:

okay, fine, Magus's 2K3 4-pack was probably somewhat over-estimated. i was always very suspicious of Sam Fisher's place in the 2K3 standings because he always seemed like a rather fodderish character.

however, i think that the increased voters over last year, and the different voters we have sincce 2K3 have caused the voting demographic to shift away from Old Square. first, Frog seems to do worse than he should have (we don't know that for sure yet) since it seems unlikely that Riku is stronger than Sora. then, Cecil got absolutely pile-drived and Terra also proceeded to bomb. then, there's Kefka, who might have done as good or better than last year. (but if he did, it could be attributed to his very recent Elite Eight appearance in this Spring's Villain Contest. that Spring performance HAS to be why he had so many brackets behind him.)

newer Square, however, doesn't seem to be doing any worse than usual. Sora and Riku are hard to gauge, seeing how Frog did much worse than he was expected and we have no clue how strong Agent 47 is. but, all 4 of the FFX characters did quite well. i mean, Rikku performed almost as well as Ryu, Auron and Tidus crushed the new, semi-fodderish characters they faced. and Yuna did much better than she was expected to against Ganondorf. and then Vincent scored the 2nd highest individual vote total in this contest so far, which is impressive no matter how foddery the competition is.

in fact, the only new-Square character who failed to live up to expectations was Vivi, who faced a possibly super-charged Zelda.

Therefore, it doesn't appear that Square characters as a whole dropped, but the site's demographic quite likely shifted away from Old Square characters, causing each of them to decrease a little bit or more. if this is true, Crono might even do a little worse than he was expected to.

---
Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!

"My point is that Square chars always get weaker by the year after their first appearance, unless they have something recent going on for them."

Again, that means by admitance of your own argument Yuna should have dropped or at best stayed constant to 2k3.

"Note that I'm not talking about Square as a company."

Sure, just all of their characters except Cloud and Crono, as you stated before. Yuna isn't Cloud or Crono, so ya know...

"FF X-2 was released in late 2003, and it wasn't hyped, so it'll need some time to settle down and give Yuna an increase."

I'm sorry, but a title that sold over a million in one region needs to be hyped after it is released? I don't think so. So then there's no way Dante got a DMC3 boost, right? And every character from square that was in 2k2 didn't increase due to KH in 2k3, it was jsut coincidence that a million+ selling game came out about the same time that every FF character that appeared in it took a rise.

"Just like the rest, however, once the excitement over that game died down, she'll start to decrease."

What excitement? Poeple aren't even talking about the game any more, they haven't talked about it since before the last summer contest except in passing (and even then only speaking badly about it).

"Akin to the KHF wearing off for the others."

Wouldn't that statement alone invalidate your own arguments?
---
Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

FF X-2 was released in late 2003, and it wasn't hyped

...You kidding?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

"...You kidding?"

He sounds absolutely serious to me. I suppose I'm not the only one that thinks his arguments are ridiculous.
---
Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

and as of right now, i call this Divisions final strengths as being:

Vincent > Dante > Squall > Knuckles > Magus > Terra > Geno > Kerrigan

i'm think that Squall should be able to edge out Knuckles next round, but he will not stand up to Vincent. and i'm also guessing that Squall will suffer a bit of SFF against Vincent, giving him a lower value than Dante in the end.

---
Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!

So what FFX-2 sold over a million by accident?
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.

FF X-2 was released in late 2003, and it wasn't hyped

...

Please tell me you aren't serious. FFX-2 had to of had at least a somewhat expensive advertising campaign given how often it's commercials aired alone. It was definitely hyped. A lot.
---
Please sign this petition for a history board:
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I think most of us can agree that either Vincent or Squall will win this division now...if that's the case, there's a very real chance that Magus could look even worse in the unadjusted stats this year.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Magus' 2003 strength is still accurate, for the year 2003. Things change, dammit.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

Well, at least we have trusty Knuckles to use as a base to cover up any potential SFF, heh.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Magus' 2003 strength is still accurate, for the year 2003. Things change, dammit.

Even if that was true it would be damn near impossible to prove now. Tidus and sam fisher flopping leads one to believe he never really was all to strong to begin with.

After looking through a few things I feel like smacking myself for not bothering to look closely at a possible knuckles upset. I feel like smacking myself even harder for having magus win the division.
---
Please sign this petition for a history board:
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I find it unlikely that Crono's likely gained a bit since 2k3 while Magus has likely weakened a bit. No, they're not joined at the hip, but that's still unconceivable...unless you're acknowledging that Magus with his sprite pic is accurate, in which case, maybe so.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Or maybe... Crono too is losing popularity?

Mario will win!
---
Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

Mario will win!

It's not like crono is the only one capable of threatening him you know.
---
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He was the biggest threat.

Sonic? Hah! Mega Man? Nothing mega about him. Samus? Pfft, talentless hack.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

"He was the biggest threat"

Outside of Samus... of the known powers....
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

Samus isn't as big of a threat as crono in this contest?

???
---
Please sign this petition for a history board:
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"???"

Don't worry, there's no logic involved with that statement at all.. let it go... ignore it....
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

Ignoring Samus as a threat is a very, very bad move.

---
Takes nothing to realize your Ken.
http://img159.imageshack.us/img159/480/kensa34mr.gif

Question...

Tidus > Knuckles based on the 2004 stats, which would indirectly imply Tidus > Magus. Does this mean that, despite what appeared to be an absolute choke job against Mega Man, he actually increased from his 2003 level (maybe from FFX-2)?

Just something to think about.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Ignoring Samus as a threat is a very, very bad move.

Even HM knows that its ridiculous to consider Samus insignificant. Optimism can only go so far...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

It's like none of you have even heard of sarcasm before.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

It's like none of you have even heard of sarcasm before.

You like to use it a lot then.

---
Takes nothing to realize your Ken.
http://img159.imageshack.us/img159/480/kensa34mr.gif

To add to cyko's thing about the changing voter demographics, there is an explanation for FFIX suffering when Old Square suffered. It plays very much as an Old Square game, and was even hyped as one. It is very different than 7, 8, 10, 10-2, and Kingdom Hearts.
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No longer on the Leaderboard... but it was fun being on top of the world.

I do too, HM. But that post was clearly sarcasm. Talentless hack? More like, awesome.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

To add to cyko's thing about the changing voter demographics, there is an explanation for FFIX suffering when Old Square suffered. It plays very much as an Old Square game, and was even hyped as one. It is very different than 7, 8, 10, 10-2, and Kingdom Hearts.

I agree that FF9 could probably be treated the same as old school square. After all it's target audience was old school square fans. Well that's what it seemed like anyways.
---
Please sign this petition for a history board:
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I do too, HM. But that post was clearly sarcasm.

The part where you called crono mario's biggest threat didn't seem to have sarcasm. Well none that was obvious anyways.
---
Please sign this petition for a history board:
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To add to cyko's thing about the changing voter demographics, there is an explanation for FFIX suffering when Old Square suffered. It plays very much as an Old Square game, and was even hyped as one. It is very different than 7, 8, 10, 10-2, and Kingdom Hearts.

Influential people on this board were very mean to me when I told them that they shouldn't count out a large change in the voter pool.

:(
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

To add to cyko's thing about the changing voter demographics, there is an explanation for FFIX suffering when Old Square suffered. It plays very much as an Old Square game, and was even hyped as one. It is very different than 7, 8, 10, 10-2, and Kingdom Hearts.

that is true, AKJ. some of Vivi's appeal stems from the nostalgia of being modeled after the classic old-school Black Mage. so it is possible that he could appeal more to the old-school Square fans.

Squall blowing Geno away and Tifa tripling Vyse would both add credibility to this theory, but we really won't know more until the Round 2 matches start pouring in.

---
Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!

Cause that wasn't sarcasm.

I only commented after you all jumped on the Sonic/Mega Man/Samus post.

Yeah.

Mario is winning!
---
Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

Cause that wasn't sarcasm.

...

Why exactly do you not consider Samus as big of a threat as crono?
---
Please sign this petition for a history board:
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Influential people on this board were very mean to me when I told them that they shouldn't count out a large change in the voter pool.

well, they are just being silly. the supposed KHF had a lot more to do with the site's voting demographic shifting than the character's appearances in KH. Cloud's appearance probably did help him because he actually had a significant role. and Squall and Seph probably got a bit of a boost due to Squall being more likable and Seph's cool boss fight. but i seriously doubt that Aeris, Tidus, or any other Square character could have increased significantly due to a minor cameo. no. the site's demograph changed from 2K2 to 2K3 and Kingdom Hearts was just a part of it.

---
Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!

As usual, no way I'm catching up to a full topic worth of posts, so I'll just say Kirby over Tidus looks more likely now - this is just the cherry on the proverbial sundae whipped up by the King of all Cosmos. If Magus was overrated in 2003, and Ganondorf was too (though he allegedly boosted since then), so was Tidus, which makes Megaman/Tidus look like much less of an anomaly now, right?

So that kinda closes the debate... Auron IS the strongest FF10 character... but hold it, because some of you won't like what's coming... there's a chance Rikku's the one coming after.
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You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops. -Samus Aran

Dammit, can't you read? I said I did that so that the numbers would line up with 2k4 stats! I said it more than once! READ!

You're just making stuff up to justify your opinions.
I knew what you meant.

But not everyone in Seph's half of the bracket would line up to their 2k4 number when you did that, so doing that doesn't make much sense.

Yes, I did! Thank you for no longer the skipping details when I put them out there for you (it only took 'til the second time in the most recent post for you to get it, despite it being mentioned in other posts)

Between your insults and whatnot, how can anyone pay attention to details?

I already mentioned that my adjustment was the most generous in favor of Magus there and that most evidence actually suggested a bigger fall.

I call that "bigger fall" a general decrease for Square chars.

Yes, by that much. Look at what he did to CJ, we may have underestimated Seph/Auron SFF even.

CJ is just that weak, we overestimated him.

Yeah, and if we count out the ones that aren't relatively close in the stats they fail more often.

The point is that it's "corrects" are still more often than it's "wrongs".

cn's work, which you so handily mention a line later.

I wasn't talking about the LSE that he did back there.
Just comparing the X-stats between 2k3 and 2k4 would be enough to conclude that Link gained between 2k3 and 2k4.

And that Ganon underperformed against Tidus almost as much as he did agaisnt Magus?

Or Magus and Tidus overperformed about the same against all of their opponents.
As in they're really that strong that year.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Because Mario will be voted for by most 'Tendo fans while Samus will get some 'Tendo votes, and some not 'Tendo votes. Nintendo is the domminant force on this site. I like to think that that's enough.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

Kind of like Mario got the Nintendo vote from Link?
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.

Because Mario will be voted for by most 'Tendo fans while Samus will get some 'Tendo votes, and some not 'Tendo votes. Nintendo is the domminant force on this site. I like to think that that's enough.

Samus managed to more or less dodge SFF against link. Why would mario be able to SFF her when link couldn't?

I'm not saying mario can't or won't win, but saying that he'll SFF samus in any significant way seems kind of ridiculous given that not even link managed any major SFF on her.
---
Please sign this petition for a history board:
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Because Mario will be voted for by most 'Tendo fans while Samus will get some 'Tendo votes, and some not 'Tendo votes. Nintendo is the domminant force on this site. I like to think that that's enough.


Even if Nintendo were to be the dominant force, your logic is that Samus will take part of the N vote and EVERY OTHER VOTE in the contest...not exactly convincing...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

Hey, you asked me why I think that about Samus, and I answered.

Mario came out of a heated match with Crono, and even though Crono cheated, people were mighty pissed at Mario, probably anti-voting him against his next match.

It's not like Mario needs a lot to catch up to Samus. He's what, 3-4% behind her? Not too much at all. And Link is so much stronger than most of the contest characters. Of course you couldn't reverse that by being Mr. Nintendo, because it's still not only Nintendo fans that come to this site. But I think Mario can do it to Samus.

Whee!

Mario is winnar <3
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

It's not like I'm presenting a factual debate on the matter. It's just what I think, and hope, will happen.

No need to be anal about it.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

well, they are just being silly. the supposed KHF had a lot more to do with the site's voting demographic shifting than the character's appearances in KH. Cloud's appearance probably did help him because he actually had a significant role. and Squall and Seph probably got a bit of a boost due to Squall being more likable and Seph's cool boss fight. but i seriously doubt that Aeris, Tidus, or any other Square character could have increased significantly due to a minor cameo. no. the site's demograph changed from 2K2 to 2K3 and Kingdom Hearts was just a part of it.

I've been saying the exact same thing for the longest.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Link did SFF Samus. Doesn't the fact that she dropped after getting her first game in nearly a decade, and then a year later experienced a crazy gain for no reason set off any alarms?
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

Link did SFF Samus. Doesn't the fact that she dropped after getting her first game in nearly a decade, and then a year later experienced a crazy gain for no reason set off any alarms?

Well, that makes Squall look even better.

Still, it also makes Kirby look better.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

No. But the fact that almost every other character in 2002 West declined massively the year after did. Link did nothing. Ask Luigi, ask Squall, ask KOS-MOS.
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You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops. -Samus Aran

But Kirby being better is a good thing!

Tidus? Mo' like, going to be beaten by Kirby.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

Link did SFF Samus. Doesn't the fact that she dropped after getting her first game in nearly a decade, and then a year later experienced a crazy gain for no reason set off any alarms?

We have winner! She may not have been at the level she was in 2k4, but she clearly was due an increase with Metroid Prime and Metroid Fusion.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."