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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 198
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/10/2005 7:59:11 PM | Message Detail
There's really no need to validate Ganondorf's 2003 number. Whether it was by an increase in 2004 or getting fluked by Magus, he's proven he's up there regardless now.
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:00:13 PM | Message Detail
...Without the 2k4 increase, would Ganon have lost to Alucard?
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Volgin is one sexy beast....
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:01:13 PM | Message Detail
"If Magus overperformed against Link, isn't it possible that Magus also overperformed against Ganon by the same amount?

Making Ganon's rank in 2k3 essentially valid."

Then explain Tidus dropping almost the same ammount as Magus has shown himself to today. Now I can't say ganon has increased in the time since in some fashion, but in 2k3 there's no way he deserved such a high ranking.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:02:38 PM | Message Detail
Ceej made special mention of Zelda along with a few others in regards to their absence in 2k4.

I forgot about that; that's true.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:02:43 PM | Message Detail
As far as how strong Ganon was in 2k3... Why debate it? There's no way to know whether Magus got lucky against him or if he's just gained since then.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:02:57 PM | Message Detail
...and Magus is still losing by too big an amount to come back. Yay for REALLY BIG upsets!

I hope Knuckles does, in fact, beat every square character he comes across, even if it makes him Sonic's punching bag in the final four >_>
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:02:58 PM | Message Detail
Who all did he mention. I remember Zelda and Geno...
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:03:00 PM | Message Detail
...Without the 2k4 increase, would Ganon have lost to Alucard?

You know, now that you mention it, that's a good question. Alucard and Knuckles were very close in 2002.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:03:43 PM | Message Detail
"There's no way to know whether Magus got lucky against him or if he's just gained since then."

Sure there is, we wait until he loses to Auron then realize he got even luckier against Seph then Magus got agaisnt Link.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:03:47 PM | Message Detail
Who all did he mention. I remember Zelda and Geno...

Right off the top of my head...

Zelda, Geno, Wario, Serge, Yuna, and Rikku.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:04:22 PM | Message Detail
Funny thing is I actually had Alucard over Ganon last year.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:04:35 PM | Message Detail
"Who all did he mention. I remember Zelda and Geno..."

Kerrigan, Serge, Aeris... someone else, I'm sure... just can't rememer.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:04:50 PM | Message Detail
From: ChichiriMuyo
No guarentees, especially with her potential role in the upcomming Zelda.

Plus Zelda looks awesome in that in-game shot of her.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:05:47 PM | Message Detail
No doubt. This Zelda may be better than OoT... here's hoping they can make a 3D Zelda as good as a 2D Zelda (doubtful).
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: Zaphod H | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:05:56 PM | Message Detail
So the first round has proved entertaining so far...

All we need now is a GF victory right?
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SSBM. Rock rock on!
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:06:01 PM | Message Detail
Sure there is, we wait until he loses to Auron then realize he got even luckier against Seph then Magus got agaisnt Link.

Yes, but I doubt that'll happen... at least, I doubt Auron will beat him handily. Ganon beat Yuna by too much to merely be another midcarder.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:07:12 PM | Message Detail
Yeah and I cant buy that Yuna didnt increase at all from FFX-2.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:07:16 PM | Message Detail
Kerrigan, Serge, Aeris... someone else, I'm sure... just can't rememer.

Actually, Aeris had a separate discussion all on her own because she wasn't even in the top 100 most nominated.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:07:20 PM | Message Detail
Zelda, Geno, Wario, Serge, Yuna, and Rikku.

Rikku? I'm almost positive she wasn't on there, though the rest are right.

Kerrigan, Serge, Aeris... someone else, I'm sure... just can't rememer.

Kerrigan was mentioned because CJay felt the need to address why there was no Starcraft characters. Aeris was addressed because she wasn't in the top hundred nominated characters.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:08:00 PM | Message Detail
I think Ganondorf has proved his 2k3 number is near his actual strength last year anyway. What he did to Alucard in the first round and Yuna this year both prove that he's nowhere near as overrated as Magus turned out to be.
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:08:04 PM | Message Detail
I think I remember that Rikku was on there.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:08:20 PM | Message Detail
Well, last known information is that Yuna was a complete scrub... and if you listen to Sidarta then you also believe that she probably dropped since all Square characters without names starting with the letter C are dropping. Unless 2k5 Yuna > 2k3 Yuna by over 4% Ganon "dropped" a lot.
---
Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:08:21 PM | Message Detail
All we need now is a GF victory right?

Meh, most brackets have already imploded by now, so why not take the universe?

GFBW >_>
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:08:48 PM | Message Detail
Rikku? I'm almost positive she wasn't on there, though the rest are right.

And I'm almost positive she was, but who knows? Maybe I'm wrong.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:09:01 PM | Message Detail
Aeris was addressed because she wasn't in the top hundred nominated characters.

I didn't buy that last year, I STILL don't buy it now...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:09:19 PM | Message Detail
since all Square characters without names starting with the letter C are dropping.

*looks at Cecil*

>_>;
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:10:38 PM | Message Detail
"What he did to Alucard in the first round and Yuna this year both prove that he's nowhere near as overrated as Magus turned out to be."

Of course, if MM "dropped" due to Sephiroth overperforming in 2k3 then Alucard shows Ganon "dropping" over 4% on BL. And if we were to assume FFX-2 was the goggles Ganon again undershoots his mark.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:10:54 PM | Message Detail
Me, I've always questioned X-Stats rating based entirely/mostly off of a match with a powerhouse. The stats would tell you that someone who gets 31% on Link would beat Ryu. But, I just can't think that 45% on Sonic is less impressive than 31% on Link.

I know that doesn't make sense, since technically Sonic isn't supposed to get much more than that against Link himself... but... I dunno. Does anyone see what I'm saying here?
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:11:18 PM | Message Detail
Well, last known information is that Yuna was a complete scrub... and if you listen to Sidarta then you also believe that she probably dropped since all Square characters without names starting with the letter C are dropping. Unless 2k5 Yuna > 2k3 Yuna by over 4% Ganon "dropped" a lot.

In 2k3, Knuckles beat Yuna 55-45.
In 2k4, Ganondorf beat Yuna 61-39.

While there are a few weird things about Ganondorf's performance in these things, I don't think he's at the level of Magus/Tidus/Knuckles. He's done too much.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: 6thDeus | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:11:43 PM | Message Detail
It tickles me that Knuckles is going to defeat Magus with a larger percentage than Magus defeated Ganondorf.

This...has truely been a magical day.
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Knights of the Old Republic> Your favorite Square RPG
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:11:46 PM | Message Detail
Magus just got 50 votes in 5 min... 0_o
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Summer 2005 Contest - 20/23 points
Current Match Prediction: Squall Leonhart vs. Geno
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:11:58 PM | Message Detail
"*looks at Cecil*"

Can't help it if the character wasn't even strong when his game was new. Really, I'd expect Cecil to bomb if we had this contest in '94 as well.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:11:59 PM | Message Detail
The main reason I'm almost positive about it is because I thought for sure that CJay only mentioned five names in the cap-section...and I know Zelda, Wario, Geno, Serge, and Yuna were mentioned. Thus, why I'm thinkin' Rikku wasn't; I'll also accept that I might be wrong though.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:12:51 PM | Message Detail
I've always question X-stats overall, for the most part. Extrapolation can only tell you so much, as there are factors involved in every individual match.

A voters mentality in one match, won't necesarily be the same in any other...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: 6thDeus | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:13:38 PM | Message Detail
That 50 vote gain for Magus was highly suspicious.
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Knights of the Old Republic> Your favorite Square RPG
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:14:05 PM | Message Detail
"While there are a few weird things about Ganondorf's performance in these things, I don't think he's at the level of Magus/Tidus/Knuckles. He's done too much."

But I'd buy that he gained since 2k3 before I'd buy that he magically underpermed on Tidus enough that he could fall almost the same amount as Magus.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:17:03 PM | Message Detail
Oh, yeah. Personally, I do subscribe to the belief of "that fourpack in 2k3 got inflated somehow".
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:18:07 PM | Message Detail
I agree with you that Ganondorf wasn't as strong as his 2k3 number implied during the actual 2k3 contest. But I believe that he's up to it now from gaining or whatever.
From: Zaphod H | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:18:48 PM | Message Detail
Statistically speaking, there should be quite a few variables confounding the extrapolated stats.

So upsets aren't too surprising.

Hindsight is 20/20, so looking back at what the stats might've hinted about Knux > Magus is a bit futile, IMO.

How are the xsts brackets doing? (I assume there's bound to be some of those around)
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SSBM. Rock rock on!
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:19:20 PM | Message Detail
Well, duh. You kinda have to subscribe to it now. But did you subscribe to it before? That's what would've helped your bracket. Heheh.

And yeah, that mentality is the reason I have Ryu winning the Dream Division. Nothing I've seen any other character in there do is as impressive as getting 45% on Sonic to me.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:19:35 PM | Message Detail
And I'd call that assesment fair. Frankly, however, to believe he was at that strength than and that Magus and Tidus magically dropped in the interrim without question is foolhardy.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:23:51 PM | Message Detail
I'd laugh if it did turn out that Snake was Knuckles's Kryptonite and he ended up winning the whole thing...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:24:14 PM | Message Detail
You know, I just got to thinkin'...maybe, just maybe, CJay should only use in-game pics from now on. Lord knows he won't, but after a performance like this and we saw how well Frog did against Solid and Kefka did against Wesker, perhaps CJay should reconsider what he uses for his pics. Now, I'm not saying only sprites should be used...but, no more artwork would be nice from now on, I would think, no matter how nice-lookin' it may be.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:24:52 PM | Message Detail
Here is what I dont understand. Why can CJayC never use the SNES sprites for characters in the Zelda series?
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:25:28 PM | Message Detail
Why can CJayC never use the SNES sprites for characters in the Zelda series?

Link had his LttP sprite against Yoshi last year. And didn't Ganondorf have his pig form against Ansem?
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: 6thDeus | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:25:56 PM | Message Detail
?

LttP Link was used in Link/Yoshi, LttP Ganondorf was used in Ganondorf/Ansem.
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Knights of the Old Republic> Your favorite Square RPG
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:26:29 PM | Message Detail
He used Ganon's SNES sprite in the spring, actually. And in Cloud vs. Link last year he used LttP Likn quite abit.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:26:43 PM | Message Detail
Well, it's 42.4, but I rounded it. That's Seph's value against 2k4 Link.

Holding Link constant from 2k2 all the way to 2k4 dropped almost everybody else like rocks, or even meteors.
It just doesn't begin to make sense.

No, as I said several time I'm assuming he is that value on 2k4 Link. Hell, I even said he was 45.XX on Base Link.

Did you ever specify that it's 2k4 Link?

And even if that's the case, Magus' and Tidus' drops are still waaay too huge.

How would you know? So far Ness hasn't had matches against anyone other than newbies and Bowser who obviously SFFd him.

I know that, but by THAT much, they only share SSBM.
And remember that Auron was also SFF'ed in 2k3 by Cloud.

Most of those matches were too easy to miss without the stats. If we exclude those and the ones agaisnt unrakned character the 2k3 stats weren't all that hot in 2k4.

Sorry, I'd like to disagree with that.
Except for famous ones like Sora vs. Ryu, the percentages usually ends up close to the stats.

And there you go, proving the whole point behind me bringing up Cloud. In case you missed it that point isn't that Cloud decreased but that you're using someone elses (incomplete) math. It will fail you, jus tlike it faile dall of us today.

Ignoring that, my own math proved that ever since 2k3, every Square char has been on a steady decline.
I guess same thing goes with Cloud, just not as much.

Everyone at some point has assumed that despite all reasoning against it Crono increases in strength. That being the case, he is a special case.

I don't think there's ever been such a consensus, as I personally think Crono is always constant.

I've never been a fan of using Link 2k3 as a basis for all stats. Oh, and Ganon vs. Sephiroth is an anomaly, play and simple.

I can say the same about Seph vs. LS you know...

Of course it would, but you only know that because you let someone else do all the work for you on it.

Work? What work?
Just look at the 2k3 X-stats and compare it to the 2k4 X-stats, you'll notice that almost everyone's numbers against Link are dropping.

Ganon was highly overrated in 2k3. Just look at today's match for proof of that.

Isn't it possible that Magus overperformed against Ganon by the same amount that he did against Link?
It's not like Link is a magnet for overperformance...

Other powerful characters have missed more tournaments. It has nothing at all to do with contest strength. For proof look at Vincent.

That could've been due to FF VII fanbase's overly split nominations.
Btw, I'll wait until Vincent vs. Dante before saying that he's above Aeris.

No guarentees, especially with her potential role in the upcomming Zelda.

Things can change, I do know that, but TP isn't even out yet.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:33:17 PM | Message Detail
Well, last known information is that Yuna was a complete scrub... and if you listen to Sidarta then you also believe that she probably dropped since all Square characters without names starting with the letter C are dropping. Unless 2k5 Yuna > 2k3 Yuna by over 4% Ganon "dropped" a lot.

Yuna has FF X-2 since then, just watch her drop like a rock next year.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:34:12 PM | Message Detail
Yuna has FF X-2 since then, just watch her drop like a rock next year.

She should've dropped like a rock this year, by your logic. The game was released in late 2003.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
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