Heh. It's so funny to read these when they were written so far in advance.

And you called Ulti being annoying yesterday...

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

And you called Ulti being annoying yesterday...

...That's related, how, exactly?
---
"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

...That's related, how, exactly?

Just be honest, you just want to rub that off his face, right?
Go ahead, you have every right to.

Just don't get all emo when people do that to you the next time you got a prediction wrong.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

"Are you blind or something?
42.5% for Seph on Link 2k3 is below even his 2k2 numbers!"

It was to adjust him to his 2k4 stats and compare 2k3 performances with 2k4 performances, obviously. And since we are doing this to compare 2k4 stats, as I mentioned rigth after saying that I adjusted him to 42.5, we have him at the equivalent of 45.17% on BL. Who exactly is blind?

"Then why the hell did you bother mentioning them?"

Because it's fun to throw things in that don't matter all the time... or it must be since you're fond of it.

"Then tell me, on who's half of the bracket is that fourpack?"

It doesn't matter. It's not strictly Seph's fault, it's just that one four pack.

"Other than being on Seph's half of the bracket, there's absolutely nothing unusual within that fourpack."

Nope, not if you don't count every returning character in the four pack doing better than expected the next year there isn't (even Alucard, though it's a weird case there).

"Your math teacher really need to get fired, you know nothing about math."

Now who is trying to be insulting? Besides, I've done the math before and it's all clean. At best Magus should never have topped 30%. Trying doing the match yourself, you'll see.

"Yes, and that goes for every other Square char not named Cloud or Crono."

http://www.sc2k4.com/summer_comparisons.php

As I said, every square character gained in 2k3. That doesn't mean that they have been on the decline since but that they did better than they should have then. And if you wanted to really right your position you'd, you know, do the math on your own and realize tat Cloud may have actually dropped as well... if every oter square character did.

"And you said you didn't buy Sp2k5..."

I don't buy Ganon and Bowser's matches with Sephiroth, so I don't buy the stats for it as a whole. That has nothign to do with individual matches that show very clear evidence (plus, if I bought sp2k5 thta just makes LS even worse which means you really, really should have seen Frog being weak coming).

"Name one that didn't, other than Cloud or Crono."

Considering DK vs. Sam Fisher Magus hasn't budged an inch. Considering Ganon vs. Yuna Yuna may have increased since 2k3. Auron has shown no signs of dropping. It's all over the place, look for it.

"Seph being over-rated in 2k3 is old news, it's been speculated for almost 2 years."

Yes, as I proved it a year ago, and no it hadn't been. Until I did soemthing about it most people asumed that it was correct and most people put the blame on Seph's match with Cloud in 2k4 on Sephiroth dropping, not being overrated in 2k3. You don't know what you're even talking about.

"Because 2k3 is NOT the odd man out."

Tell that to both 2k2 and 2k4, who mesh up better than you realize. You are aware there was a contest in 2k2 right?

"And I don't buy AC hype keeping Cloud constant,"

Actually, as someone who believe square is on the decline you should have been able to point to matches last year (specifically vs. Link and Duke Nukem) to come to the conclusion that Cloud dropped as well. Frankly, your theory is half-baked at best, and it would at least be amusing if it was as constant as you claim Cloud to be (which you've yet to do the math for on your own).

"since that wouldn't apply to Crono."

Crono has always been a special case, and has always been treated as such here in the csad. Welcome to last year.

"As for Vivi, I don't buy Zelda > Ganon for a second."

I can, easily. I'll wait for there to be evidence to prove it, but I can easily see her over Ganon since he's vastly overrated.

"For Vivi to keep his 2k4 numbers,"

Who says he didn't rSFF Sephiroth? Who says Link gained instead of Cloud droping. Consider all the posibilities instead of pointing to someone elses stats and saying they are absolutely correct when the person who made them doesn't even believe that.

"Zelda would have to rank above Ganon."

It's certainly not impossible. It's not like there is thta much evidence to prove otherwise.

"Oh, I won't buy rSFF."

Just because we can't point to a specific case with evidence doesn't mean it hasn't happened. Vivi had all of two matches last year and one of them was against the ever-unreliable DK. We just don't know what happened.

"Again, I don't buy 2k3 Seph = 42.5% on BL, that's lower than even his 2k2 numbers"

Like I said, that was to compare to 2k4 numbers, paying attention to the explanation of the math would have pointed that out to you.
---
Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

Just be honest, you just want to rub that off his face, right?
Go ahead, you have every right to.

Er... No? I don't have any right to rub that in his face, seeing as I had Magus winning the division. It's just hilarious to read these when they are written a month in advance. Just like it was hilarious when I read the Spring contest ones.
---
"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

"You know what, let's get Aeris in."

This is the smartest thing you've said all day.

I don't have any right to rub that in his face, seeing as I had Magus winning the division.

I'm in your same shoes here...but I have no choice but to bring this up to Ulti on occasion in the future. =)
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

What's up with all the Squall/Geno SFF talk? Super Mario RPG may have been developed by Square, but Geno is essentially a Nintendo character.
---
MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

I'm almost hoping Squall/Geno goes exactly as predicted...

It's getting so exhausting following the topic through the past few days >_<
---
Everyone has the right to be wrong.
25th/125 in the Guru Rankings.

"but Geno is essentially a Nintendo character."

Yeha, I would expect Mario to SFF him more, but that won't stop me from calling SFF if Geno loses too badly. My hope is he wins and throws us all into chaos. It would make sense, considering that I've campaigned for him as long as for Vincent and we know how well he did.
---
Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

People have been campaigning for Kerrigan for years and that didn't turn out well... but I would like to see Geno surprise us.
---
Everyone has the right to be wrong.
25th/125 in the Guru Rankings.

"People have been campaigning for Kerrigan for years and that didn't turn out well..."

I wasn't one of those people, and I spents many, many hours telling those people they were wrong in this very topic. Plus, I've been capmaiging for Vincent since long before Kerrigan campaigns started.
---
Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

An idea came to mind for a possible new board contest to do for the tournament, I suppose not too far off from the prophet/oracle stuff... I'm just wondering if anyone would be interested in this.

Since so many of our brackets are completely screwed, and since the stats have been so strange this year that many of our brackets are only going to get worse, what if we had a bracket-making contest that was sort of a "second chance" thing? Like, take the remaining 31 matches of the contest, and have people predict what they think will happen.
---
I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?

Not too bad, but far too easy compared to the real deal.
---
Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

Not too bad, but far too easy compared to the real deal.

I suppose, yes. However, it's the same amount of characters as the villain contest, and there are a lot of matches in later rounds that are toss-ups... more than usual.
---
I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?

That's kind of silly to me. This isn't the NCAA Tournament where every single game could theoretically go either way. A lot of these matches have expected outcomes. Sure, there may be an upset or two, but nothing warranting doing a boardwide bracket redo. Most of us are still waiting to see if our other predictions pan out.
---
MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

It was to adjust him to his 2k4 stats and compare 2k3 performances with 2k4 performances, obviously. And since we are doing this to compare 2k4 stats, as I mentioned rigth after saying that I adjusted him to 42.5, we have him at the equivalent of 45.17% on BL. Who exactly is blind?

Honestly, where the hell did you get that 42.5% from then?
It's not from 2k2, and it's not from 2k4.
You can't just make up some number because that will make MM's numbers against Link "correct".
What if MM did legitimely decrease?
He decreased from 2k2 to 2k3 too.

Nope, not if you don't count every returning character in the four pack doing better than expected the next year there isn't (even Alucard, though it's a weird case there).

Alucard is ranked through Ganon, whose numbers are shrouded in SFF.
And how about accepting that Squall decreased?

Now who is trying to be insulting? Besides, I've done the math before and it's all clean. At best Magus should never have topped 30%. Trying doing the match yourself, you'll see.

Well, I have to return the favor sometimes...

I did my math, and figured that Magus isn't the only one being "over-rated", as the way you like to put it.

http://www.sc2k4.com/summer_comparisons.php

As I said, every square character gained in 2k3. That doesn't mean that they have been on the decline since but that they did better than they should have then. And if you wanted to really right your position you'd, you know, do the math on your own and realize tat Cloud may have actually dropped as well... if every oter square character did.

Cloud did decrease, but it's very minimal, can easily be caused by yearly fluctuations.
As I said, he's 'relatively" constant, NOT absolutely constant.
I think Crono is the most consistent one, his "yearly increase" is everybody else's decrease to time.

I don't buy Ganon and Bowser's matches with Sephiroth, so I don't buy the stats for it as a whole. That has nothign to do with individual matches that show very clear evidence (plus, if I bought sp2k5 thta just makes LS even worse which means you really, really should have seen Frog being weak coming).

I knew Frog overperformed on Snake, but by THAT much?

Considering DK vs. Sam Fisher Magus hasn't budged an inch. Considering Ganon vs. Yuna Yuna may have increased since 2k3. Auron has shown no signs of dropping. It's all over the place, look for it.

You're assuming Seph 2k4 = 42.5% on BL there, I don't buy that.

Auron underperformed on Ness last year, while Ness got SFF'ed by Bowser in 2k3, I don't think it's by THAT much.
And Auron also got SFF'ed by Cloud in 2k3.
But since Auron is constantly behind SFF. let's ignore his numbers.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Yes, as I proved it a year ago, and no it hadn't been. Until I did soemthing about it most people asumed that it was correct and most people put the blame on Seph's match with Cloud in 2k4 on Sephiroth dropping, not being overrated in 2k3. You don't know what you're even talking about.

Look, I was there, and as I said it's a speculation.
Whether it's 100% Seph being over-rated or 100% Seph dropping, or a mixture of both, I just can't guarantee.

Btw, by setting Seph equal to 42.5% on BL, you're saying that both 2k2 and 2k4 Seph is still being over-rated.
I don't buy that for a second, especially not 2k2 Seph.

Tell that to both 2k2 and 2k4, who mesh up better than you realize. You are aware there was a contest in 2k2 right?

You do realize that 2k3 numbers properly predicted the majority of matches in 2k4, right?

Cloud vs. Vyse is almost accurate to the wire.
If you put Seph 2k3 at 42.5% on BL, Link should've gotten 55%+ on Cloud.

Btw, someone here did an LSE estimate between 2k3 and 2k4, the results indicated that Cloud is relatively constant.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Knuckles is still putting up a fight! He's building his lead back up over 2300. He really is punching Magus in the face during this match. Insult to injury...
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

sorry to go off topic but this match has gotten me wondering about matches that will never happen.

gordon vs cats
gordon or cats vs kerrigan
vyse vs kerrigan
vincent vs tifa
kirby vs knuckles


i wish that cj would do matches next to the potd during the off season.
---
*pacing back in forth waiting for: advance wars ds, twilight princess, ffxii, kingdom hearts 2, castlevania dos*

CATS would beat Gordon
CATS would beat Kerrigan (Maybe Gordon)
Vyse would beat Kerrigan
Vincent would beat Tifa
Knuckles would beat Kirby.

Thats what I think.

I would love it if Squall beats Knuckles the next round and ended up being Squall > Knux > Magus in the stats..

If Squall can't do it.. Then Vinny boy better take down that red turd

---
"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka

Kirby vs. Knuckles

If Knux can't beat Kirby then he sure ain't hell gonna beat Squall..

---
"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka

Actually, as someone who believe square is on the decline you should have been able to point to matches last year (specifically vs. Link and Duke Nukem) to come to the conclusion that Cloud dropped as well. Frankly, your theory is half-baked at best, and it would at least be amusing if it was as constant as you claim Cloud to be (which you've yet to do the math for on your own).

Let me make it clear, Cloud is relatively constant.
If you keep Link constant from 2k3 to 2k4, almost everybody else would drop like rocks, or even meteors.

But I do agree that Cloud decreased a little, since my measuring stick is Crono, and Cloud decreased wrt Crono.

Crono has always been a special case, and has always been treated as such here in the csad. Welcome to last year.

By who?
It's just you so far...

I can, easily. I'll wait for there to be evidence to prove it, but I can easily see her over Ganon since he's vastly overrated.

No he isn't, even if you set Seph = 42.5% on BL, his performance in Sp2k5 comfirmed his strength.

Who says he didn't rSFF Sephiroth? Who says Link gained instead of Cloud droping. Consider all the posibilities instead of pointing to someone elses stats and saying they are absolutely correct when the person who made them doesn't even believe that.

It's certainly not impossible. It's not like there is thta much evidence to prove otherwise.

Just because we can't point to a specific case with evidence doesn't mean it hasn't happened. Vivi had all of two matches last year and one of them was against the ever-unreliable DK. We just don't know what happened.

Look above, Link staying constant would have almost everybody else dropping like rocks.
Again, my measuring stick is Crono, and Link gained wrt Crono.

I can buy Vivi overperforming on Seph due to it being his first run, but not rSFF.

As for Zelda, she was far below Ganon in 2k3, and even got snubbed in 2k4.
I'm sure she's below Ganon in the LoZ popularity food chain.

Like I said, that was to compare to 2k4 numbers, paying attention to the explanation of the math would have pointed that out to you.

You acquired that 42.5% through who? MM?
MM isn't exactly consistent himself you know...

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

She well below Ganon in 2k3, because Ganon is overrated. Does Magus/Knux and Tidus/MM not tell you anything?
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.

She well below Ganon in 2k3, because Ganon is overrated. Does Magus/Knux and Tidus/MM not tell you anything?

Does Sp2k5 not tell you anything?

And Zelda got snubbed in 2k4 instead of Ganon.

It tells me that LoZ fans care more for Ganon than Zelda.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

I doubt many are foolish enough to think he'd beat Magus, though I've seen some on the board... Well, their loss.

Heh heh heh.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

I doubt many are foolish enough to think he'd beat Magus, though I've seen some on the board... Well, their loss.

Heh heh heh.

Before you laugh at him, remember that Squall is also a Square char.

And that he might dropped (or turned out to be over-rated) just like Magus.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Kerrigan with her good picture would beat Gordon, and I'd say CATS as well. The Kerrigan we saw yesterday? GFMW.
---
Hail to the Queen of Blades.

Before you laugh at him, remember that Squall is also a Square char.

Yeah, and I still see no reason to believe that Square in general is falling. Old Square has been bombing left and right. New Square has looked just fine.

And that he might dropped (or turned out to be over-rated) just like Magus.

Magus has reason to be overrated. Squall doesn't. He's proven to have earned his spot.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Knux for division champ!
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 20/22 points
Current Match Prediction: Magus vs. Knuckles the Echidna

You know, technically we really were all foolish to think Squall would beat Magus. Heheh.
---
Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

New Square like Vivi, right?
---
NOMINATE KEN MASTERS FOR SC2K5
http://img291.echo.cx/img291/3398/ken23rc.gif

Vincent got snubbed last year in favor of KEFKA. Does that tell you that nominations mean nothing.
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.

Hello there, Zelda increase.
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

He would've beaten Magus by as much as he beat Kirby, if not more. XD

---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.

New Square has looked just fine.

Even with that, all we know is that FFX is still fine. Vincent's performance bodes well, but I think how Tifa does will go a long way towards us making sure of the strength of FF7-9.
---
I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?

I have Zelda over Snake and even I don't think that match was ALL Zelda increase.
---
NOMINATE KEN MASTERS FOR SC2K5
http://img291.echo.cx/img291/3398/ken23rc.gif

Magus has reason to be overrated. Squall doesn't. He's proven to have earned his spot.

Squall's only legitimate year is 2k3, just like Magus.
Cloud buried the truth about Squall's strength in 2k4, just like what Crono did to Magus.

Vincent got snubbed last year in favor of KEFKA. Does that tell you that nominations mean nothing.

You're comparing chars from different games...

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Squall's only legitimate year is 2k3, just like Magus.
Cloud buried the truth about Squall's strength in 2k4, just like what Crono did to Magus.

The difference there is that Squall faced two characters with established strength. Magus faced a newbie.
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

The difference there is that Squall faced two characters with established strength.

Now consider this, those 2 chars were on Seph's half of the bracket in 2k3.
And there's a chance that Seph overperformed on Cloud in 2k3.

Add to that the fact that Squall himself underperformed against them.
And you might be dissappointed next round.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Yeah but all characters are working for the same 10 nominations. For all we know 'Dorf could have been on the borderline and Zelda the last character out.

You cant tell crap about nominations. Aeris was brought into this contest first, yet its highly probable Vincent and/or Tifa is stronger.
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.

I have to say, Knuckles is ridiculously impressive today.

---
Takes nothing to realize your Ken.
http://img159.imageshack.us/img159/480/kensa34mr.gif

And there's a chance that Seph overperformed on Cloud in 2k3.

I severely doubt it. Beating Mario and Mega Man with over 60% is no joke. Sephiroth almost beat Mario as badly as Link did the year before. His strength there is legit. He just had a drop in 2004, for whatever the reason.
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Even with Squall's under performance, he's still well above Knuckles. I knew Magus would be rather close to Knuckles (comparing him with 2k4 Tidus), but I figured bracket support and all that would pull him through with at least 52% of the vote.
---
Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

Yeah but all characters are working for the same 10 nominations. For all we know 'Dorf could have been on the borderline and Zelda the last character out.

You cant tell crap about nominations. Aeris was brought into this contest first, yet its highly probable Vincent and/or Tifa is stronger.

Still, Sp2k5 proved that Ganon deserved his 2k3 rank.
And there's always the chance that Vivi is suffering from whatever syndrome Frog and Magus is suffering from.
Whether it's being over-rated on their first appearance, 2k3 being the odd year out, or that Square chars are decreasing except for their elites.

About Vincent and Tifa, let's just wait.
Note that if Squall turned out to be weaker then expected for whatever reason, or even lose to Knux, Vincent can take the division with only 30% on BL.
and My hunch is still telling me that Aeris is stronger than both.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

"Honestly, where the hell did you get that 42.5% from then?"

Well, it's 42.4, but I rounded it. That's Seph's value against 2k4 Link.

"You can't just make up some number because that will make MM's numbers against Link "correct"."

See above.

"Alucard is ranked through Ganon, whose numbers are shrouded in SFF."

Not in 2k3

"And how about accepting that Squall decreased?"

He's the only one I would accept.

"I did my math, and figured that Magus isn't the only one being "over-rated", as the way you like to put it."

Nope, he sure isn't.

"I knew Frog overperformed on Snake, but by THAT much?"

Sick, ain't it? But look at today's match and tell me Frog/Snake is even remotely possible.

"You're assuming Seph 2k4 = 42.5% on BL there, I don't buy that."

No, as I said several time I'm assuming he is that value on 2k4 Link. Hell, I even said he was 45.XX on Base Link.

"Auron underperformed on Ness last year,"

How would you know? So far Ness hasn't had matches against anyone other than newbies and Bowser who obviously SFFd him.

"Btw, by setting Seph equal to 42.5% on BL"

Good thing all my values were for 2k4 Link then, eh?

"You do realize that 2k3 numbers properly predicted the majority of matches in 2k4, right?"

Most of those matches were too easy to miss without the stats. If we exclude those and the ones agaisnt unrakned character the 2k3 stats weren't all that hot in 2k4.

"Cloud vs. Vyse is almost accurate to the wire."

Coincidences happen, see: Tidus vs. Shadow.

"Btw, someone here did an LSE estimate between 2k3 and 2k4, the results indicated that Cloud is relatively constant."

And there you go, proving the whole point behind me bringing up Cloud. In case you missed it that point isn't that Cloud decreased but that you're using someone elses (incomplete) math. It will fail you, jus tlike it faile dall of us today.

"By who?"

Everyone at some point has assumed that despite all reasoning against it Crono increases in strength. That being the case, he is a special case.

"No he isn't, even if you set Seph = 42.5% on BL, his performance in Sp2k5 comfirmed his strength."

I've never been a fan of using Link 2k3 as a basis for all stats. Oh, and Ganon vs. Sephiroth is an anomaly, play and simple.

"Look above, Link staying constant would have almost everybody else dropping like rocks."

Of course it would, but you only know that because you let someone else do all the work for you on it.

"I can buy Vivi overperforming on Seph due to it being his first run, but not rSFF."

Okay, then we'll say Vivi overperformed due to it being his first contest and surprising quite a few people by beating DK.

"As for Zelda, she was far below Ganon in 2k3,"

Ganon was highly overrated in 2k3. Just look at today's match for proof of that.

"and even got snubbed in 2k4."

Other powerful characters have missed more tournaments. It has nothing at all to do with contest strength. For proof look at Vincent.

"I'm sure she's below Ganon in the LoZ popularity food chain."

No guarentees, especially with her potential role in the upcomming Zelda.

"You acquired that 42.5% through who?"

Sephiroth > Cloud > Link in 2k4.


---
Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

Oh, one more thing about Ganon.

If Magus overperformed against Link, isn't it possible that Magus also overperformed against Ganon by the same amount?

Making Ganon's rank in 2k3 essentially valid.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

"For all we know 'Dorf could have been on the borderline and Zelda the last character out."

Ceej made special mention of Zelda along with a few others in regards to their absence in 2k4. He indicated clearly that the cap kept Zelda out. I'd point that out to sidarta but I doubt he'd believe me.
---
Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power