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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 198
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:06:18 PM | Message Detail
I love everybody and their topics saying "I bet Ceej is gonna take away votes now, Knux is cheating.... 4 SHO!!! LOLZ"

Seriously... it rocks.

*watches a Ceej topic saying just that get posted 1 second before this post*

>____>

---
It's a Pinball Masquerade
Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
From: jonthomson | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:06:46 PM | Message Detail
And Magus breaks 40K. Only problem is that Knuckles has gained 29 over the last half hour. If I didn't have anything better to do I'd call that a night :-)
---
Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: Shadow Dino | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:09:18 PM | Message Detail
Ah well, that was interesting while it lasted. With only six hours left, it's pretty much over.
---
Bart, with $10,000, we'd be millionaires! We could buy all kinds of useful things like...love! ~Homer J. Simpson
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:09:25 PM | Message Detail
I would laugh if CJayC made a topic, but he probably won't unless Magus starts to a make a strong come back.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:11:07 PM | Message Detail
Welcome to 20 minutes ago Magus.
---
I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: Shadow Dino | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:14:28 PM | Message Detail
Feh, these gains are pretty much too little, too late.
---
Bart, with $10,000, we'd be millionaires! We could buy all kinds of useful things like...love! ~Homer J. Simpson
From: Shadow Dino | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:17:39 PM | Message Detail
And Knux gets another win.

No comeback folks, it's over. gg Magus.

Here's to Knuckles pulling a Starcraft and taking the division
---
Bart, with $10,000, we'd be millionaires! We could buy all kinds of useful things like...love! ~Homer J. Simpson
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:17:43 PM | Message Detail
Knuckles really likes to play by keeping things steady
---
I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: The Doppleganger | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:18:06 PM | Message Detail
Too little too late? NOOOOOOO <_<
---
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:20:00 PM | Message Detail
I hope Magus atleast gets a strong night push and makes this closer.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:21:29 PM | Message Detail
"Dropping Seph from his 2k3 numbers to his 2k4 numbers to account for Link revenge votes that Cloud got in 2k3 couldn't even begin to account for that."

Apparently you have no idea. By adjusting 2k3 Speh to 42.5% you drop Alucard to 23.51% which when you adjust Ganon in 2k4 based on Alucard instead of Ganon 2k3 you get Ganon at 27.43% on Link2k4, or in other words under 30% on BL. Yes, this is short of Magus losing to Knux range but this is the most forgiving adjustment.

If you'd do your own math you'd actually realize how wrong you are.

"Snake had a new game between 2k3 and 2k4, it surely did give him an increase, didn't it?"

Twin Snakes did nothing, and if you'd read further you'd realize I wasn't serious about Kirby and Bomberman having new games that did anything.

"If anything Squall should've overperformed, since Seph was over-rated in 2k3."

I said 4-pack. Learn to read.

"The only thing you're good at is calling others stupid."

And figuring things out with my own math, oh... and a billion other things. I only call people stupid when their actions and/or inability to listen call for it.

"If you do have an idea what's going on, then SPIT IT OUT!"

As has been said, there are over seven previous matches that show Magus dropping, and DK vs. Sam Fisher shows Magus losing today. It's all over the place, and I'm not responsible for opening your eyes.

"To be honest I really think you don't."

To be honest you're wrong.

"Now that I've seen that match, I'll buy Sora > Frog."

You should have bought it when Seph faced LS at the latest. You're behind the curve on this one.

"All signs so far points to all Square chars dropping like rocks ever since 2k3, except for Cloud and Crono"

No they don't. Only the ones you choose to pay attention do. That's not my fault.

"And 2k3 isn't the odd ball out"

I said mostly that for Sephiroth, can't you pay enough attention to catch that? Besides, 2k2 has EVERY square character weaker than than in 2k3. All of them. Not a single one failed to increase in 2k3. 2k3 is the odd man out, and I'm sorry that you don't realize it was the second contest so that you could be away of that.

"both Frog and Vivi dropped between 2k4 and this year."

Frog didn't drop, he was overrated. Seph > LS proved it decisively, and CATS vs. MC just backs it up. And Vivi dropped? How in the hell would you know, exactly? rSFF isn't out of question but the realissue here is DID ZELDA GAIN SINCE 2K3? You do not know the answer to that, you cannot say Vivi dropped.

"You're not going to call 2k4 as an anomaly too, aren't you?"

Every contest has its anomalies, every contest changes, but if you'd take a secodn to realize there is more data thna you've bothered to account for then you'd realize it fits into the puzzle more often than not and that Square isn't consistently declining.
---
Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: jonthomson | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:24:40 PM | Message Detail
From: The Doppleganger | Posted: 8/11/2005 1:18:06 AM | #109
Too little too late? NOOOOOOO <_<

Yep, definitely. 56.4% required now. Which couldn't be sustained for fifteen minutes this morning with the help of the board vote.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: Chamek | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:31:33 PM | Message Detail
Hmm... I know I don't post in these stats topics often so my input probably isn't wanted, but oh well.

My opinion is that Magus was both overrated from his past performances, and that the Sonic series may be on a slight boost this year as well, however it is mainly (80-90%) the result of the first. Still though, I do not worry any for Mega Man just yet, I have to see how both his and Sonic's first round matches go before I'll make any more decisions on their match against each other. Especially since I don't consider Zero's performance to be any indication of how Mega Man will do, hell I haven't even really analyzed his match and can't remember how well he did, that's how little I care about the connection. So as of now, my opinion is that Mega Man will still take that match, just not quite as easily as I previously thought.

As for the entire Devil division, I still haven't made up my mind on Vincent's strength. While I agree that Kerrigan probably isn't complete fodder, we still don't know just how strong she is and it's definitely possible that she was more fodder-material than most of the topic previously thought, and Terra isn't necessarily an easy character to double, much less get 72% against. As of now I'm not confident in Dante winning his match against Vincent at all, but I do not discount that possibility entirely. The top five of that division I rank something like this:

Vincent > Knuckles > Magus > Squall > Dante

But then again, it is entirely up in the air. Hell, we still don't know for certain if Knuckles will win tonight. The chance of Magus making a comeback is slim (like 1%), but it's not undoable. Despite my bracket pick being Magus (and that I have him winning the entire division even) I still hope Knuckles will win, not only do I like him more, but we need the upset around here to take care of most of the perfect brackets and likely both zeroes.

Oh, and while I'm at it, I found this earlier while at the BK board. I'd make my own topic about it but I don't want to flood the board with another useless topic, plus more people will frequent this topic anyway so I might as well post it here.

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=917921&topic=22782154

Sad really that people are going to these lengths. Not that I think it has any impact on the outcome, it's just kind of pathetic and I found it entertaining. Thought some of you might like a laugh or two.
---
Upon having Rosie O'Donnell corner him in the forest, the pizza delivery man knew how a Goomba felt when Mario got a star. ~ SSJ3 Popo
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:33:41 PM | Message Detail
There's only one way Magus could win and that's if Knuckles cheat which again is very, very unlikely
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: jonthomson | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:36:32 PM | Message Detail
From: Chamek | Posted: 8/11/2005 1:31:33 AM | #113
My opinion is that Magus was both overrated from his past performances...

Vincent > Knuckles > Magus > Squall > Dante


Fair enough, I think we all now thing that Magus is overrated, but you're either saying that Knuckles was underrated as well or Squall is overrated, neither of which you really mention.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:45:18 PM | Message Detail
All Knuckles has to do is hold on tightly; here's to hopin' he ruins my bracket.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Tai | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:48:32 PM | Message Detail
5 straight updates won. Man.

Well, good job by Knuckles. :-) It's fun to see matches like this. It's what makes the contest fun.
---
PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (216 Signs!)
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:51:02 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, despite how badly this hurts my bracket this is a good match. If it didn't hurt my bracket so much I'd enjoy it.
---
Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:53:51 PM | Message Detail
Chichiri, you had Magus winning the division?
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Tai | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:55:16 PM | Message Detail
That 35 vote gain for Knuckles is suspcious.
---
PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (216 Signs!)
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:55:17 PM | Message Detail
Solid Snake > Vincent > Bowser/Ryu > Squall > Knuckles > Magus >> Dante

Book it
---
"Mace isn't even better than Dooku" ~ LightSnake
"Obi-Wan is stronger than Mace" ~ DarthLampe
From: Ketchop | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:56:45 PM | Message Detail
I heard someone mention the "curse of the third seeds". Can someone tell me all the third seeds that have flopped in any of the contests? I suppose Kefka, Kratos, and Magus can be added to this list.
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TOOMMMAAATOOOO SAAAAUUUUCCCCEEEE!
(he seems pumped....perhaps?)
From: jonthomson | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:57:13 PM | Message Detail
From: Ketchop | Posted: 8/11/2005 1:56:45 AM | #122
I heard someone mention the "curse of the third seeds". Can someone tell me all the third seeds that have flopped in any of the contests? I suppose Kefka, Kratos, and Magus can be added to this list.

www.sc2k5.com

Have fun.
---
Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: red sox 777 | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:57:22 PM | Message Detail
From 17:50 to the end of the match, Knuckles lost 0.16% against Kefka. Knuckles's percentage over that period of time was 56.77%. He peaked at approximately 11:00 EST at 57.80%, and then fell to 57.46% by the end of the match, drawing only 54.45% of the vote during that portion of the match.
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Summer Contest 2005 --- Score: 21/22 --- Rank: T-103
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:59:41 PM | Message Detail
That 35 vote gain for Knuckles is suspcious.

As if it matters. -_-

Knuckles was matching Magus blow for blow during the first night vote. He's going to get in some shots here, assuming this is basically legit.
---
I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/10/2005 5:59:45 PM | Message Detail
So, what will the standing be at the end of this contest?

XD

---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: CompmanJX3 | Posted: 8/10/2005 6:00:58 PM | Message Detail
I don't know if anyone has mentioned this yet <_<

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2088
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2072
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1338
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1330

Magus > Ganondorf > Knux > Magus > Yuna

Which poll is the anomaly, I wonder... perhaps Ganondorf has simply increased that much in the last two years...
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Currently: 21/22 | Next: Magus
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/10/2005 6:01:19 PM | Message Detail
Well, seeing how Kefka isn't quite nearly as far away from Magus as we once thought and the general assumption is still Magus > Frog...would anybody give a chance to Kefka if he were to face Frog?
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/10/2005 6:01:37 PM | Message Detail
Wow, I forgot about the curse, it's been a while since anyone brought it up.

3 are out in Round 1, and 2 might fall next round. Yay tradition!
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Magus vs. Knuckles - Bracket: Magus - Vote: Knuckles (20/22)
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/10/2005 6:01:41 PM | Message Detail
Apparently you have no idea. By adjusting 2k3 Speh to 42.5% you drop Alucard to 23.51% which when you adjust Ganon in 2k4 based on Alucard instead of Ganon 2k3 you get Ganon at 27.43% on Link2k4, or in other words under 30% on BL. Yes, this is short of Magus losing to Knux range but this is the most forgiving adjustment.

If you'd do your own math you'd actually realize how wrong you are.


Are you blind or something?
42.5% for Seph on Link 2k3 is below even his 2k2 numbers!

Twin Snakes did nothing, and if you'd read further you'd realize I wasn't serious about Kirby and Bomberman having new games that did anything.

Then why the hell did you bother mentioning them?
Waste of my time.

I said 4-pack. Learn to read.

Then tell me, on who's half of the bracket is that fourpack?
Other than being on Seph's half of the bracket, there's absolutely nothing unusual within that fourpack.

And figuring things out with my own math, oh... and a billion other things. I only call people stupid when their actions and/or inability to listen call for it.

Your math teacher really need to get fired, you know nothing about math.

As has been said, there are over seven previous matches that show Magus dropping, and DK vs. Sam Fisher shows Magus losing today. It's all over the place, and I'm not responsible for opening your eyes.

Yes, and that goes for every other Square char not named Cloud or Crono.

You should have bought it when Seph faced LS at the latest. You're behind the curve on this one.

And you said you didn't buy Sp2k5...

No they don't. Only the ones you choose to pay attention do. That's not my fault.

Name one that didn't, other than Cloud or Crono.

I said mostly that for Sephiroth, can't you pay enough attention to catch that? Besides, 2k2 has EVERY square character weaker than than in 2k3. All of them. Not a single one failed to increase in 2k3. 2k3 is the odd man out, and I'm sorry that you don't realize it was the second contest so that you could be away of that.

Frog didn't drop, he was overrated. Seph > LS proved it decisively, and CATS vs. MC just backs it up. And Vivi dropped? How in the hell would you know, exactly? rSFF isn't out of question but the realissue here is DID ZELDA GAIN SINCE 2K3? You do not know the answer to that, you cannot say Vivi dropped.


Seph being over-rated in 2k3 is old news, it's been speculated for almost 2 years.
Now tell me, why didn't Cloud or Crono drop in 2k4?
Because 2k3 is NOT the odd man out.
And I don't buy AC hype keeping Cloud constant, since that wouldn't apply to Crono.

Didn't you just said you didn't buy Sp2k5?
Where Ganon ranked higher than ever?

As for Vivi, I don't buy Zelda > Ganon for a second.
For Vivi to keep his 2k4 numbers, Zelda would have to rank above Ganon.
Not to mention the possibility of any SFF he suffered at Seph's hand.
Oh, I won't buy rSFF.

Every contest has its anomalies, every contest changes, but if you'd take a secodn to realize there is more data thna you've bothered to account for then you'd realize it fits into the puzzle more often than not and that Square isn't consistently declining.

Again, I don't buy 2k3 Seph = 42.5% on BL, that's lower than even his 2k2 numbers.

Square as a company isn't declining, that I agree.
After all, Cloud and Crono has been relatively constant, but everybody else seems to be declining year after year.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Tai | Posted: 8/10/2005 6:02:18 PM | Message Detail
2005-08-10 18:00:01 41858 44149 48.67% 51.33% 86007 2291
2005-08-10 17:55:00 41662 43996 48.64% 51.36% 85658 2334

43 vote loss. Under 2300, and that oughta lower the required votes needed per five minutes. :-)

With that, bath time.
---
PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (216 Signs!)
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/10/2005 6:03:03 PM | Message Detail
"Chichiri, you had Magus winning the division?"

Yes, despite all the work I had done in the past AND my fanboyism for Vincent I somehow took Magus for the division. Worst choice ever.
---
Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/10/2005 6:05:12 PM | Message Detail
Zelda > 'Dorf. And it makes sense too. She probably gets a lot of the same support that Diablo gets.
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: Mumei | Posted: 8/10/2005 6:07:20 PM | Message Detail
... I pay so little attention to the X-Sts and what matches from previous years could mean for this match that I'm not sure who's winning Chichi and sidharta's argument. >_>

---
<_<
From: Chamek | Posted: 8/10/2005 6:09:04 PM | Message Detail
but you're either saying that Knuckles was underrated as well or Squall is overrated, neither of which you really mention.

I did mention it briefly when I said I think that the Sonic series may be on a slight rise this year, which could be 10-20% of the reason why he's taking out Magus, the other 80-90% because of Magus himself being overrated. Also I do think that Squall could be on a slight drop, not him exactly, but Square in general. All of this has to be taken with a grain of salt, but in general Square characters haven't been living up to my expectations this year:

From Final Fantasy: Both Yuna and Vivi bowed out getting only around 40% of the votes in their matches, and while I picked Kefka to lose to Vercetti, his loss still doesn't bode well for Square characters.

From Chrono Trigger: Frog did win against Riku, however he only won by around 3,000 votes--and while I realize that Riku is also Square, he's from KH which is just the third biggest game series from the company here on GameFAQS, and I'd be willing to bet that a larger percent of it's votes come from actual KH supporters, rather than just Square supporters, as it's the newest series and game that I've spoken of thus far.

Going on... Magus is losing today to Knuckles, partially from his overestimation of course, but this could mean something more. And while I know this one is a huge longshot, I'll point it out as well. Crono is considered by many the strongest character in the main bracket this contest, and by nearly everyone in the top three at least, and yet his percentage in his match is much lower than the percents that Samus and Mario raked in. Yes, he was up against an FF character, but still it could lead to a large decline in Square this summer.

When you look at all of these facts combined, and compare them to Nintendo's not losing a match yet and the apparent rise the Sonic series may be on, things just don't look too hot for Square at the moment, so seeing Squall drop as well (or not meet our expectations at least) isn't entirely out of the picture.

Even with Magus's drop from overestimation though, I suspect that he would still beat Squall, hence placing him above Squall on my list. Simply because a large part of that 80-90% overestimation thing stems from the Square drop I spoke of before.

Plus, I could see Knuckles doing even better against Magus had he been given the higher seed. As you've probably witnessed numerous people have made a topic or post today stating that they should've looked at the results before voting for Knuckles, while I know it's absurd to think that more than two or three hundred people might have done that, the possibility of at least those one or two hundred people doing so is very, very possible. So in the next match when we won't see as many bracket voters present (as only maybe 20% would have had Squall beating Magus, and about 5% picking Knuckles for the win) Knuckles could get a slight boost from that as well.
---
Upon having Rosie O'Donnell corner him in the forest, the pizza delivery man knew how a Goomba felt when Mario got a star. ~ SSJ3 Popo
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/10/2005 6:09:28 PM | Message Detail
Well now that Ive had time to think about it, Im not ready to throw the X-Stats out the window yet. We have had matches like this every year. Last year it was Tidus/Mega Man and Frog/Solid Snake. They defy logic. Why would both Tidus and Shadow drop that much? Who knows.

But the X-Stats still work as a general guide. Just cant use them word for word. I think thats what people have been preaching since they were invented, but no one pays attention.
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/10/2005 6:11:33 PM | Message Detail
But the X-Stats still work as a general guide. Just cant use them word for word. I think thats what people have been preaching since they were invented, but no one pays attention.

Because noone knows where it will fail.

When we think it'll fail, it doesn't, or even fail the other way.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Sidious Kenshin | Posted: 8/10/2005 6:11:34 PM | Message Detail
Yes, he was up against an FF character, but still it could lead to a large decline in Square this summer.

GG dude.
---
"Battousai... you will always be the perfect Hitokiri..."
Slay. Evil. Immediately.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/10/2005 6:12:38 PM | Message Detail
Between Tidus not doing quite like he should have and Magus LOSING, I'm afraid that I'm goin' to have to concede to the arguement that Shadow truly was just a Sonic-proxy in his match against Mario; there's not much of any way around it...I just hope Kirby/Tidus can give me reason to believe Tidus and still take the Dream Division.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/10/2005 6:13:41 PM | Message Detail
We need to get Shadow in the contest next year. We need to see his true strength once and for all.
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/10/2005 6:15:32 PM | Message Detail
You know what, let's get Aeris in.

And see if the general decrease for Square affects FF VII chars too.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/10/2005 6:16:59 PM | Message Detail
Devil Division Round 1 - Match 24 – (2)Squall vs. (7)Geno

Squall
Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy VIII
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: 20th (24.36%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 16th (31.72%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2004: 19th (22.92%) Adjusted Value:17th (29.58%)
Seed in 2002: 15
Seed in 2003: 6
Seed in 2004: 4
Lost in 2002 to Sonic in Round 1
Lost in 2003 to Samus in the Sweet 16
Lost in 2004 to Cloud in the Sweet 16

From 15th seeded, to 2nd seeded. Also, look at that jump from 2002 to 2003 in his strength. Looks cool.

Geno
Game/Series Known From: Super Mario RPG
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: N/A
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: N/A
Extrapolated Rank in 2004: N/A
Seed in 2002: N/A
Seed in 2003: N/A
Seed in 2004: N/A

Newcomer Geno has made the Contest after years of whining. Now you finally get to see him get squashed!

Well…yeah. Another one of these matches. Hmm…I don’t have anything witty or clever to say either, so-NO ONE EXPECTS SOUL CALIBUR 2 QUOTES PUT TOGETHER TO SOUND WRONG!

I've been waiting for this day for too long!
Are you ready?
Well then, let us dance!
You're a feisty one!
I had more fun than I thought I would!
You still want more?
Haha. This rod will be your doom!
Taste my pain!
AHHHHHHGH!!!
Resisting only prolongs the suffering.

Squall wins, now excuse me, but Taki on Cassandra action is calling.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Squall will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Squall: 71% - Geno: 29%



Ulti’s Analysis

In the entire Devil Division, this is the only match that sucks. It's an SFF affair, and Squall will likely SFF Geno's ass into oblivion. This is like the polar opposite of the Flood Division; every match but one division in the Flood Division sucks, yet every match but one in the Devil Division is awesome. Strange and ironic that it will end the same way.

By the way, should Squall SFF Geno into oblivion, his chances against Magus will look awesome as he will prove that he'll be able to SFF a secondary Square character from a popular SNES title.

Prediction: Squall with 71.17%



Soul’s Analysis

Squall is the main hero from FF8. Geno is a sidekick to Mario in Super Mario RPG.

Squall has made every Summer Contest, and has proven that he is very powerful. Geno has never made a contest.

I'm going to make this short and sweet. Geno has no chance to survive make his time.

My prediction: Squall wins with 75.87% of the vote. SUPER MARIO RPG LOST?!?!?!??!?!111!1



Outback’s Analysis

I have no idea what's going on, so the only reason I'll be analyzing the rest of the way is to make me feel better about my picks. Tomorrow is a lose-lose situation, either Geno loses or I lose a point in my bracket.

=(

Squall with 66.67%

---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Magus vs. Knuckles - Bracket: Magus - Vote: Knuckles (20/22)
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/10/2005 6:17:12 PM | Message Detail
How 'bout we get Wario in instead of Shadow? Sure, their match would then be three years old...but Wario > Shadow.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/10/2005 6:17:17 PM | Message Detail
Inviso’s Analysis

In this match, we have Squall Leonhart, who was not snubbed this year (to those of you who understand that, thank you for reading my failed 2006 contest boardfic) up against Geno, from the cult Super Mario RPG. Now, I realize that Street Fighter 2 is pretty popular and SMRPG beat it, but it had Mario in the title, and hence, it was going to win no matter what. Geno on the other hand…is not Mario. He’s not even close. People who’ve never actually played Geno will not know who he is. People who go to Gamefaqs will definitely know Squall, be it for bad reasons or good. He’s been in contests before, is from a relatively popular Final Fantasy game, and made a guest appearance as both an ally, and a boss in Kingdom Hearts. Basically, he’s Final Fantasy, he’s going to win. Geno’s Nintendo fanbase basically only comes from the fact that his game is Super MARIO RPG…and that won’t be mentioned in the actual poll. Meanwhile, his Square fanbase will be too buys voting for Squall to care.

My Bracket: Squall Leonhart
My Vote: Squall Leonhart
My Prediction: Squall Leonhart with 84.15%



Tnote’s Analysis

Squall Leonhart vs. Geno

Yet another very boring potential SFF fest. Geno, like Zidane, has been clamored for for a number of summers now, and his ultimate inclusion comes at the hands of another Square character. I wish Geno would have drawn a character like Vercetti or DK, because many might be inclined to take Geno. But I know better. His thrashing at the hands of Squall will be attributed to some RPG SFF, when realistically it should be attributed to his cannon-fodder status. Homeboy probably has issues with Ansem.

Squall made quite the splash a few years ago, when I was merely following the contest and not frequenting the boards. Even I, the front-page bracketeer, was screaming ‘OMGWTFBBQ over Luigi!?!’ But now I know better, and if Squall slapped up 60% on TJF Jill, he should have no difficulty doubling Geno.

Pick: Squall with 68.27%



Vlado’s Analysis

Okay... Who the hell nominated Geno?! I don't think we needed to see him here. Sure, he's a fun character and most SMRPG fans like him, but he'll get owned really badly here. When I think of Geno I can't help remembering his first round match of The RPG Character Contest (which took place on Board 8), where he was a top seed and faced the 16th seed Ramza. Even bracket voting couldn't save him from losing there, and it was a hilarious sight to see, especially since I was one of the two or three to predict Ramza would win. Anyway, Geno will be very weak here. He'll get owned badly, probably not as badly as Yuri Hyuga, but I still don't see a chance of him avoiding a tripling. Even with the expected Squall anti-votes, that have been becoming less and less every next contest. I believe Geno will be one of the weakest this contest, I'm pretty sure he'll place below Cats in the X-Stats, especially after Cats' impressive performance against Master Chief. SMRPG beat Street Fighter II, but Geno will be FAR from his game's popularity.

Squall can't really do much in this contest, can he? Sure, he'll get a nice, big win against Geno, but that's it. I doubt many are foolish enough to think he'd beat Magus, though I've seen some on the board... Well, their loss. Squall will most likely have kept his 2004 level, I doubt he'll have increased or dropped with more than half a percent. He'll win this one with ease, but I don't see him going anywhere after that.

Predicted percentage: Squall with 80.22%.

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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Magus vs. Knuckles - Bracket: Magus - Vote: Knuckles (20/22)
From: The Doppleganger | Posted: 8/10/2005 6:17:29 PM | Message Detail
I'd rather not have Aeris in <_< we need someone new who will just pop out and randomly make it to the Elite 8. Vincent seems like he might be that dude this year. Him or Knux.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/10/2005 6:18:42 PM | Message Detail
Wario got killed by Shadow. If Shadow is really as weak as 2k4 says then Wario would be absolute fodder.
From: jonthomson | Posted: 8/10/2005 6:18:46 PM | Message Detail
And with Magus now needing board vote-esque numbers to pull this off, I'm calling that a night.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/10/2005 6:20:20 PM | Message Detail
Ya know, now that I think about it, I'm not opposed to seeing Waluigi in the contest...

...if he faces Mario in the first round, Captain Olimar-style. =)
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/10/2005 6:20:44 PM | Message Detail
I'd rather not have Aeris in <_< we need someone new who will just pop out and randomly make it to the Elite 8. Vincent seems like he might be that dude this year. Him or Knux.

But we need someone from Square whose strength we once know.

Ok, Shadow will do, but not Knux, we know Knux has been relatively constant over the years.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/10/2005 6:20:49 PM | Message Detail

By the way, should Squall SFF Geno into oblivion, his chances against Magus will look awesome as he will prove that he'll be able to SFF a secondary Square character from a popular SNES title.


Heh. It's so funny to read these when they were written so far in advance.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
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