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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 197
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/10/2005 11:56:47 AM | Message Detail
Anything can happen in the WW.... Summer 2005 Contest....
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 8/10/2005 11:56:53 AM | Message Detail
I told you not to do it.

True and all, but I just assumed you were doing it entirely out of bias. <_<
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I need to put something here.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/10/2005 11:57:30 AM | Message Detail
Good call. After all, he's done well against the likes of Knuckles, Diablo, and TOMMY ****ING VERCETTI.

I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic or not. If you're referring to prediction percentages, then yes, he's done very well. If you're referring to his actual strength, I'm not.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/10/2005 11:57:36 AM | Message Detail
Knuckles will not be beating Squall. This is Magus being overrated. Tidus, Sam Fisher, and Luca Blight ALL pointed to it.

Ganondorf only made it seem like that wasn't the case by boosting with Link to cancel it out.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/10/2005 11:57:59 AM | Message Detail
Okay. So if I get the consensus, Magus overperformed on Link and Link only, and Ganondorf and Zelda got the same increase Link had last year.

God, this makes Zelda over Snake a wee bit more likely, dontcha think?
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You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops. -Samus Aran
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/10/2005 11:58:24 AM | Message Detail
Your stats aren't reliable in this case, Moltar, because Knuckles rhymes with buckles, meaning in round two Knuckles buckles under the pressure of Squall.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/10/2005 11:58:30 AM | Message Detail
Slowflake, Ive been saying that all night. Zelda is extremely close to 2003 Snake.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/10/2005 11:58:31 AM | Message Detail
True and all, but I just assumed you were doing it entirely out of bias. <_<

I was doing it out of concern for my friend.

Seriously, I pointed out the warning signs before this contest started. Everyone assumed it was just a coincidence, mostly because Ganondorf stood out.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Heroic Dr Wily | Posted: 8/10/2005 11:58:40 AM | Message Detail
Heh, that reminds of how we almost had a perfect bracket in spring and all 3 choose Kefka over diablo.
From: cavedog0 | Posted: 8/10/2005 11:59:53 AM | Message Detail
Yes!!! I went to sleep and Magus had a 600 vote lead around 3 o'clock. Just, YESSS!!!!
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:01:13 PM | Message Detail
Leon, do you think Squall has a shot at Vincent?
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I need to put something here.
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:01:33 PM | Message Detail
Okay. So if I get the consensus, Magus overperformed on Link and Link only, and Ganondorf and Zelda got the same increase Link had last year.

I think he overperformed on Ganondorf, too. Or even rSSFed him...

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:01:54 PM | Message Detail
Knux's lead is over 1700 now.

At the halfway point, this match has 56,726 votes.

Ness/CJ - 56,067
Tidus/KoAC - 57,247
Kerrigan/Vincent - 57,297

We'll have to push hard for 100,000 tonight.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:02:41 PM | Message Detail
Leon, do you think Squall has a shot at Vincent?

Yes, he does. We'll have to wait until Dante to see for sure though.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:02:47 PM | Message Detail
Leon, do you think Squall has a shot at Vincent?

At the moment, I'd go with Vincent though I have Squall in my bracket.

However, we'll have to wait and see how well Squall does on Geno.

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: I_Dont_Love_You | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:03:14 PM | Message Detail
Hey Moltar, determine who wins Yoshi/Laharl.
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God bless The Great George Romero, the true winner of the 2k5 Summer Contest.
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:03:29 PM | Message Detail
What in God's name is Squall/Geno going to tell us. Geno could be anywhere from complete and utter fodder of the worst kind to a midcarder.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: Phediuk | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:03:49 PM | Message Detail
The funny thing is, Luigi vs. Squall was still a bigger upset than this for two reasons:

1. People hate Squall. People like Knuckles.

2. Squall completely flattened Luigi, while Knuckles probably won't finish with more than 53%.

However, today's match has definitely earned the title of second biggest upset of all time.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:04:10 PM | Message Detail
Okay. So if I get the consensus, Magus overperformed on Link and Link only, and Ganondorf and Zelda got the same increase Link had last year.

Wait...so what does this say for Alucard? Or do you mean Ganon and Zelda increased this year? If so, then Ganon and Yuna's increases canceled each other out?

Your stats aren't reliable in this case, Moltar, because Knuckles rhymes with buckles, meaning in round two Knuckles buckles under the pressure of Squall.

But according to my stats, Knuckles has TRF (The Red Factor), and anything red automatically beats anything wielding a Gunblade.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Magus vs. Knuckles - Bracket: Magus - Vote: Knuckles (20/22)
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:04:33 PM | Message Detail
What in God's name is Squall/Geno going to tell us. Geno could be anywhere from complete and utter fodder of the worst kind to a midcarder.

As can Kerrigan.

If Squall pulls a % higher than Vincent did against Kerrigan, I'd say he has a good chance.

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:04:35 PM | Message Detail
If you think Squall has a decent chance against Vincent, I think it's pretty silly to think Dante doesn't. All signs point to a Dante increase of some sort.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:05:54 PM | Message Detail
If you think Squall has a decent chance against Vincent, I think it's pretty silly to think Dante doesn't. All signs point to a Dante increase of some sort.

They both definitely do.
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I need to put something here.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:06:41 PM | Message Detail
Hey Moltar, determine who wins Yoshi/Laharl

Yoshi wins with 70%+ of the vote because Laharl suffers from HNPF (Hard Name Pronunciation Factor).

Yoshi also rocks, owns, and > Laharl.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Magus vs. Knuckles - Bracket: Magus - Vote: Knuckles (20/22)
From: cavedog0 | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:06:56 PM | Message Detail
I still have no idea how strong Vincent is. For all we know Kerrigan is conplete and udder fodder. That is why I'm sticking with Squall...
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:06:56 PM | Message Detail
I will say that there's one thing awfully similar about Magus and Squall: outside of 2k3, they haven't done anything overly impressive. I think Knuckles has a fair shot at taking Squall down...and if he gets over that hump, who knows what could happen?

As far as Zelda/Snake...I'm still calling a 55-45 win (or something close to it) for Zelda. People are not giving nearly enough credit to the beatdown she put on Vivi.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:07:13 PM | Message Detail
Why? We have no reason to believe Geno and Kerrigan are anywhere near each other. Kerrigan could be mid-fodder and Geno bad-fodder and then Vincent destroys Squall despite Squall doing better against Geno.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:08:24 PM | Message Detail
I'm still not worried about Squall v Knuckles because I think Kirby > Knuckles, and we all know how that turned out.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:08:31 PM | Message Detail
As far as Zelda/Snake...I'm still calling a 55-45 win (or something close to it) for Zelda. People are not giving nearly enough credit to the beatdown she put on Vivi.

Why should we? Because she faced a character who has only faced the choke-master DK and the king of statistical inconsistencies, Sephiroth?

55-45 sounds ridiculous, even for those predicting a Zelda victory.
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I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon
From: cavedog0 | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:08:51 PM | Message Detail
This match is by far the biggest upset in the history of the contest. Anyone who disagree's is wrong...
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:09:00 PM | Message Detail
Why? We have no reason to believe Geno and Kerrigan are anywhere near each other. Kerrigan could be mid-fodder and Geno bad-fodder and then Vincent destroys Squall despite Squall doing better against Geno.

And for all we know, Geno could be stronger than Kerrigan. Honestly, I'm predicting Kerrigan to be only slightly stronger than Geno, and I'm basing Squall vs Vincent off of that and Vincent vs. Dante.

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:09:26 PM | Message Detail
No because if Link and 'Dorf got the big Zelda increase then why cant Zelda?
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:10:22 PM | Message Detail
Also, no it isnt. Luigi/Squall was bigger. I even say Samus/Sonic is up there.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:11:22 PM | Message Detail
Even if Zelda increased, I couldn't justify making it a 55-45 affair. Snake undoubtedly dropped last year, but the poll is more casual-oriented and he's due for an MGS3 boost. Even Knuckles' performance today is only a 51/49 affair.
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I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:12:25 PM | Message Detail
I say this is bigger than Luigi/Squall simply because we thought we KNEW Magus strength. Luigi everyone simply overestimated. Magus beat Ganondorf and got 35% on Link. This is just insane.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:14:51 PM | Message Detail
No because if Link and 'Dorf got the big Zelda increase then why cant Zelda?

Using 2003 Mega Man for both Zelda and Snake, Snake did 7.25% better.

Factor in a 4% Snake drop, 4% Zelda rise and Zelda still only wins by a hair. But I'm also expecting an MGS3 boost.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Magus vs. Knuckles - Bracket: Magus - Vote: Knuckles (20/22)
From: Heroic Knuckles | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:15:39 PM | Message Detail
NOBODY thought Knuckles could even break 45%, let alone win. This is the biggest upset ever.
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Knuckles > Squall
25th/125 in the Guru Rankings.
From: cavedog0 | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:16:01 PM | Message Detail
From: Heroic Knuckles | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:15:39 PM | Message Detail | #136
NOBODY thought Knuckles could even break 45%, let alone win. This is the biggest upset ever.
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:17:02 PM | Message Detail
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/10/2005 3:12:25 PM | #134
I say this is bigger than Luigi/Squall simply because we thought we KNEW Magus strength. Luigi everyone simply overestimated. Magus beat Ganondorf and got 35% on Link. This is just insane.

Exactly. The only time two characters we saw before and weren't close in the X-Sts ended up in an upset was Link/Cloud 2003. Other than that... nothing.
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You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops. -Samus Aran
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:17:26 PM | Message Detail
Plenty of people thought Knux could break 45%. I was one of em. But win?
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:17:29 PM | Message Detail
Oh, and Cloud had some backers, too. For Knuckles? NOTHING.
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You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops. -Samus Aran
From: Seanchan | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:23:11 PM | Message Detail
Geno > Terra > Kerrigan
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<reptile-> The first time hypr opened a box of Cheerios and looked inside he yelled, "OH WOW! DONUT SEEDS!"
<hypr> wtf are donut seeds
From: DomaDragoon | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:23:39 PM | Message Detail
At this point, I'm just going to believe that anything can happen.

Oh, and if Magus actually loses, I never want to see him in a contest again.
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Season 20 starts with a bang, as Claude Kenni and Hiro pit their swords against each other in Heavy! Who will win? Find out at rpgdl.com!
From: jonthomson | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:26:40 PM | Message Detail
From: Heroic Knuckles | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:15:39 PM | #136
NOBODY thought Knuckles could even break 45%, let alone win. This is the biggest upset ever.

My oracle pick has Magus at 53 point something.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: Brainstruck | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:26:49 PM | Message Detail
Does this make Sonic > Mega Man gain credibility?
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Speak of Galcian again in that tone and I shall cleave you in two
- Ramirez, Skies of Arcadia
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:27:09 PM | Message Detail
Magus gained 3 votes! The swing is beginning!
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: Redtooth | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:28:19 PM | Message Detail
Before this contest, I thought the most interesting possibility for finals was Mario vs Crono IV.

Now, as others have mentioned, a Snake vs Knux IV or a Mario vs Sonic would not only be awesome, but seems at least possible...

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Every man is entitled to express his opinions and every other man is entitled not to listen.G. Norman Collie
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:29:06 PM | Message Detail
From: DomaDragoon | Posted: 8/10/2005 3:23:39 PM | #142
At this point, I'm just going to believe that anything can happen.

Oh, and if Magus actually loses, I never want to see him in a contest again.


Whoa, you're harsh there.

Quiz time! Frog or Magus?
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You can't have gone over a kilometer up. 1500 meters, tops. -Samus Aran
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:29:17 PM | Message Detail
Does this make Sonic > Mega Man gain credibility?

Every match before this that showed the unadjusted were looking more realistic than the adjusteds (for Mega Man's portion of the bracket) made Sonic>Mega Man gain credibility. This doesn't actually effect it.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:29:29 PM | Message Detail
affect*
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: jonthomson | Posted: 8/10/2005 12:30:15 PM | Message Detail
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:29:06 PM | #147
Quiz time! Frog or Magus?

Magus
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
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