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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 196
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:46:53 AM | Message Detail
Auron has won that match.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: Like U Dont No | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:46:55 AM | Message Detail
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/10/2005 11:42:08 AM | #238
Well...nearly EVERY bracket is now dead, so its anything goes from here on out...

Very few brackets are dead if Knuckles wins the division. =P


Anyone who had Squall or Vincent winning are kinda screwed, and anyone who had Squall, Vincent or Magus going past the devil division would be screwed, as Knuckles would not beat Sonic. (I think that's who he'd be up against.)
v^v
"/ \".| "" |¯¯ ¯|¯ |\ | (¯ Carolina Panthers 03-04 NFC Champions
/¯¯\ |__ |¯_ _|_ | \| _) Salvation in my quote. Pray the message to God.
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:47:22 AM | Message Detail
Not Sonic, Crono.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:47:50 AM | Message Detail
The problem with the stats is that many people seem to think that you can compare 2k3 characters with 2k4 characters and get a reliable result, etc. When I see people trying to compare 2k2 Link to 2k4 Link, or people actually using RPGuy's "all-time" stats for advice, I have to laugh. Between variables like seeding, the day of the week, vote rallying, vote stuffing, links to polls from other websites, vote totals, the positioning of the poll, and people's tastes genuinely changing from year to year, it's remarkable how many people don't realize that each poll has a life of it's own and the results can contrast with the results from previous years without anyone doing better or worse than expected.

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2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
World Champion: Gyruss, Link's Awakening, Mega Man X, Super Mario World, Zombies Ate My Neighbors
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:48:20 AM | Message Detail
I'd much rather use Ganondorf's match against Sephiroth to predict Ganon/Auron rather than his match with Magus two years ago.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:48:20 AM | Message Detail
Ganon isn't as over-rated as you think.

Yuna probably got a 3-4% boost from FFX-2. The lowest Ganon could possibly be is his 2003 value.

Then again, Magus could have messed that up...
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Magus vs. Knuckles - Bracket: Magus - Vote: Knuckles (20/22)
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:48:24 AM | Message Detail
Auron=Squall>Magus>Gannon=Kirby>Tidus



KB
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:48:24 AM | Message Detail
Holy Sora vs Hayabusa...
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:48:28 AM | Message Detail
I don't think Vincent is getting past Round 2.

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2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
World Champion: Gyruss, Link's Awakening, Mega Man X, Super Mario World, Zombies Ate My Neighbors
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:48:41 AM | Message Detail
Thats why I compared them to a Fantasy Football Picks Sheet
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: transience | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:48:45 AM | Message Detail
why are you guys trying to adjust the stats based on the result of one match? the stats are what they are - a guide, not something you believe in 100%. sitting there trying to change this value and adjust that value is just going to make them more unpredictable.
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nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.
From: Brett with Atreyu | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:49:19 AM | Message Detail
Kratos Aurion with 51%.

BOOK IT!

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SC2k5: 21/22 (Curse you Ness!)
Today: Magus vs. Knuckles
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:50:02 AM | Message Detail
Well... those that have Magus losing before the Elite Eight still may be in good shape. If you have Magus losing to Vincent, it's only a loss of 3 points. This is a MAJOR upset, and will probably cause TONS of brackets to lose a point. With other upsets looming, 3 points isn't that much of a gap to overcome. A -4 still won a prize in 2k4, and that was the most predictable bracket of them all.

Those with Squall > Magus are in EXCELLENT shape.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:50:02 AM | Message Detail
I still wouldnt think Ganon = Kirby since he beat Alucard just last year by quite a bit and Alucard > Kirby.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:50:11 AM | Message Detail
The next person that says "Book It" owes me five dollars.

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2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
World Champion: Gyruss, Link's Awakening, Mega Man X, Super Mario World, Zombies Ate My Neighbors
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:50:52 AM | Message Detail
And Knuckles has a 500 lead..and it's not even noon eastern.. o_O
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:51:07 AM | Message Detail
Those with Squall > Magus are in EXCELLENT shape.


KB
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:51:50 AM | Message Detail
Those with Squall > Magus are in EXCELLENT shape.

Why, thank you.
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I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:52:01 AM | Message Detail
Needless to say, this is going to get VERY interesting by time the night vote comes..
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Magus vs. Knuckles - Bracket: Magus - Vote: Knuckles (20/22)
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:52:16 AM | Message Detail
I actually think Knucks > Squall next round is gonna happen. But I doubt he'll be able to beat Vincent.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Acronym | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:52:28 AM | Message Detail
First of all: WTF.

Second: ****.

Third, a whole bunch of (possible) matches just got a lot more interesting. Sonic/Mega Man? Crono/Mega Man? Crono/Sonic? Crono/Mario?!?!
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"When I was young people in my village would ring a bell every time I was angry to tell everyone to go into their homes until I calmed down." - Igor
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:52:28 AM | Message Detail
Hm... So, my bracket is completely dead...
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:52:29 AM | Message Detail
I'll vehemently support Knuckles making the Elite 8, essentially putting everyone in the same boat with regards to the Devil Division (assuming we all had the four logical first round winners).
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:52:30 AM | Message Detail
The people with Vincent > Squall are in the best shape.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: Shadow Dino | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:52:44 AM | Message Detail
Bah, from here on out, anything can happen in any non-Noble Nine matches...
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Bart, with $10,000, we'd be millionaires! We could buy all kinds of useful things like...love! ~Homer J. Simpson
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:53:15 AM | Message Detail
Anything can happen IN a Noble Nine match, Snake is still a big risk factor.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: DragoonsKill91 | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:53:59 AM | Message Detail
If knuckles wins the division i think my favorites bracket would be up there for the contest(its minus 2 points right now and has knuckles winning the division).
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"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:54:04 AM | Message Detail
I'll vehemently support Knuckles making the Elite 8, essentially putting everyone in the same boat with regards to the Devil Division (assuming we all had the four logical first round winners).

That'll just give some guy who had no idea what he was doing the inevitable win.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: KingBartz | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:54:16 AM | Message Detail
Crono > Sonic > Mega Man
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My Summer Contest Score: 19/22 - Todays Pick: Magus
KingBartz: Been a full Virgin since '87
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:54:19 AM | Message Detail
If Magus/Ganon is the problem... explain to me how Magus followed it up with 35% on Link. Ganondorf fell just a few points short of expectations against Ganondorf and Yuna, yet Magus is dropping the ball in a projected 60-40 match.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 021/022 - Matches: 21/22 - Rank: 00103/33793 - Today: Magus - Tomorrow: Squall
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:54:28 AM | Message Detail
The people with Vincent > Squall are in the best shape.

Yep, probably.



KB
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:54:36 AM | Message Detail
Well obviously after Ness/CJ and this, the guy who doesnt know what he is doing is better at this than us.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: Shadow Dino | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:54:50 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:55:01 AM | Message Detail
Well obviously after Ness/CJ and this, the guy who doesnt know what he is doing is better at this than us.

Yeah, apparently.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:55:02 AM | Message Detail
I hate to call any match at all a lock now.
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"I dont know what I am talking about? I know more about gaming than 90 percent of the users on the internet." -xmagxus
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:55:29 AM | Message Detail
Well if Snake/Knuckles is the problem than we can officially call Snake the biggest stat ****up ever.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: Saiyan X | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:55:51 AM | Message Detail
I'm beginning to fear for Solid Snake vs Zelda. If Zelda gets the right pic, and Snake gets a piece of **** again, then it could be as bad as we all think.

*significantly raises eyebrows*
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Needless to say, the sexual implications were intentional.
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:55:55 AM | Message Detail
Magus was simply overrated Slowflake.


60-40 was ballooned due to one match.


KB
From: Shadow Dino | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:55:57 AM | Message Detail
Stupid Snake...
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Bart, with $10,000, we'd be millionaires! We could buy all kinds of useful things like...love! ~Homer J. Simpson
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:56:40 AM | Message Detail
I would love to see Knuckles take this division, but that might put the risk of my favorites bracket beating me.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:56:53 AM | Message Detail
That'll just give some guy who had no idea what he was doing the inevitable win.

How many people with Knuckles winning the division have an actual shot at calling most everything correctly? It's only seven points, and the exact same situation has been overcome before. In last year's Spring Contest, I had Starcraft losing to Halo. It went on to make the Elite 8, and I won a prize regardless. =P
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:56:53 AM | Message Detail
Snake is going to get his 8-bit picture in the next three rounds.

And I bet a kidney at this point all three of his opponents could handle Frog pretty well.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:57:09 AM | Message Detail
If Snake loses to Zelda, this contest is getting ****ed up... Even more.
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:57:52 AM | Message Detail
Snake's the bottom of the Noble Nine anyway, so he'd most likely lose any Noble Nine match anyway...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:58:09 AM | Message Detail
Well Zelda actually has a lot of strength. She is projected to almost beat 2k3 Snake at this point and she isnt behind any of those really weird matches.

But there is me trying to use the stats again.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:58:49 AM | Message Detail
Looks like I'm having crow for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. At least this isn't a character I hate that's winning, so it's actually fun >_>

Knuckles really is invincible until he faces Solid Snake. Wow. Now watch Lloyd beat Zero and Diablo beat Sonic to truly convince everyone lock away anything remotely related to the extrapolated stats and never speak of them again.

Knuckles > Squall. I'd die of happiness were that to happen.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:59:03 AM | Message Detail
Stop blaming Snake for everything! Just blame Magus. I don't see SNAKE losing against Knux...ever, actually. -_-
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I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:59:41 AM | Message Detail
Hmmph, this match RAISED my confidence in Snake to the Final 4. >.>

Then again, I just think it's Knuckles not going up against Snake.

For kicks, what would Knuckles get on 2005 Yuna using Ganondorf (whichever value is best to use)
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Magus vs. Knuckles - Bracket: Magus - Vote: Knuckles (20/22)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:59:45 AM | Message Detail
From: Kyle Bowen | Posted: 8/10/2005 11:55:55 AM | #288
Magus was simply overrated Slowflake.


60-40 was ballooned due to one match.


KB


You don't understand, do you? Ganondorf is underrated very little, if at all. Yet his value depends on Magus getting 35% on Link. Magus doesn't look at all like a guy who can get 35% on 2003 Link today.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 021/022 - Matches: 21/22 - Rank: 00103/33793 - Today: Magus - Tomorrow: Squall
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/10/2005 8:59:53 AM | Message Detail
I was just saying if Magus/Link wasnt the problem as someone suggested than Snake/Knuckles was. So Snake goes from around = Link to midcarder in a span of one match.

I dont buy it, but it is funny.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
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