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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 195
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:17:24 AM | Message Detail
The way everything keeps turning out, Laharl may trounce Yoshi shortly to being blown out by Pac-Man. >_<

The second part is more possible than the first one, though, I don't think neither have a chance.
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Summer Contest 2k5 - Points: 20/22
Magus Vs. Knuckles - Bracket: Magus - Vote: Knuckles
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:17:46 AM | Message Detail
For the record...as much as I'd love to see Knuckles win, I'd still be surprised to see it happen. Dominating the day vote against Kefka isn't all that special...after all, Kefka gave up huge chunks of percentage to freakin' Mithos during the day. And while Knuckles did better against Solid Snake during the day then he did during the night, he still didn't perform as well as Frog did, and I believe that Magus is still clearly stronger than Frog. So let's not get ahead of ourselves.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: cavedog0 | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:17:55 AM | Message Detail
Which brings up my next question. Do you think Squall will beat Knux if he does in fact beat Magus? And if so then by how much?
---
"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:17:59 AM | Message Detail
And this coming from someone who insulted everyone who had Squall over Magus.

I conceded that Vincent and Squall were on a collision course hours ago.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:18:52 AM | Message Detail
I think Pac-Man stands an excellent chance at getting the duke over Ocelot.
From: cavedog0 | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:19:29 AM | Message Detail
^^^ Especially with the old man pic.
---
"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:19:32 AM | Message Detail
I've always been on the Magus is overrated wagon and I expected him to finish this match with something like 57%. I'm thoroughly shocked.

---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:19:35 AM | Message Detail
Dominating the day vote against Kefka isn't all that special...after all, Kefka gave up huge chunks of percentage to freakin' Mithos during the day. And while Knuckles did better against Solid Snake during the day then he did during the night, he still didn't perform as well as Frog did, and I believe that Magus is still clearly stronger than Frog. So let's not get ahead of ourselves.

CT characters suck at the day vote, Knuckles rules the day vote, I think he'd pass pretty easily.
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Summer Contest 2k5 - Points: 20/22
Magus Vs. Knuckles - Bracket: Magus - Vote: Knuckles
From: creativename | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:19:36 AM | Message Detail
One way to make sense of this is to set Magus=Tidus, and go by Tidus and Knuckles' values last year (adjustment or no). That has Knuckles getting about 49.2% on Magus.

However, again, that is really unsatisfactory because it reeks of after-the-fact fudging.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:20:10 AM | Message Detail
^^^ Especially with the old man pic.

The pic where he escaped a doubling from Bowser.
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Summer Contest 2k5 - Points: 20/22
Magus Vs. Knuckles - Bracket: Magus - Vote: Knuckles
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:20:22 AM | Message Detail
Just generally speaking, it's the old school characters (SNES and earlier) that have been struggling and the newer characters who have been impressing. Expect the same to hold true with Pac-Man vs Ocelot. Ocelot wins.

I guess this is just a side-effect of gaming becoming more mainstream and this site becoming more popular because of it.
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I need to put something here.
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:21:22 AM | Message Detail
Can someone calculate what Magus would get based off the Spring Lucca?
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:21:39 AM | Message Detail
Luca*
---
Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:22:01 AM | Message Detail
The pic where he escaped a doubling from Bowser.

http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/albums/spc2k5/thumb_b25.jpg

That pic was an affront to God or whatever minor deity you stand for.
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:23:53 AM | Message Detail
Lord, if this match becomes *exciting*, I'm going to miss out on all the writing I was supposed to do...again. =/
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I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon
From: creativename | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:24:09 AM | Message Detail
The Bowser pic was much better for Ocelot than the Pac-Man one, because against Pac-Man, he sort of just fades into the background. It's tough to really even notice him. Pac-Man really dominates the field of view.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:24:28 AM | Message Detail
I don't stand for anything, really.
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Summer Contest 2k5 - Points: 20/22
Magus Vs. Knuckles - Bracket: Magus - Vote: Knuckles
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:25:05 AM | Message Detail
Lord, if this match becomes *exciting*, I'm going to miss out on all the writing I was supposed to do...again. =/

I demand bereted Krausery goodness, toot sweet.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:26:01 AM | Message Detail
http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/displayimage.php?album=4&pos=48

Yuck. I didn't realize how terrible looking the Link, Samus, and Bowser sprites are! Since we're on the subject... Slight Squall overperformance on Samus anyone? It would explain why Kirby did better than expected on him... I doubt it though. I think someone said Kirby and Bomberman were underrated in the 2k3 stats.

I was wondering what the thoughts were on Link vs. Cloud, or if anything so far in the contest has given anyone reason to feel differently about their choice.

I still stand on my island that Link/Cloud 2k3 was somewhat of a fluke in 2k3. I've seen enough people complain about WW Link for me to think that it was a factor. Against someone as popular as Cloud, especially in his Bat-Cloud KH glory, I think it would be enough of a factor for someone to vote Cloud over him. I think it's seeing grown men cry when seeing a return of adult Link in a trailer that has my opinion biased. I know the majority of the topic disagrees with me, but if I'm wrong, it's something I have to see for myself.

Also, I know that Cloud has Advent Children coming out. Though it may have people like Cloud better, it still doesn't necessarily mean that they will like him better than Link. Link has been an absolute BEAST in this contest outside of that match with Cloud. I know Cloud will give him a hell of a match, but I will always go down picking Link in that match. Win or lose....
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:27:24 AM | Message Detail
CT characters suck at the day vote, Knuckles rules the day vote, I think he'd pass pretty easily.

The middle eight hours of their respective polls last year:

07:59:41 Frog - 11,022 Snake 12,300
15:59:56 Frog - 29,982 Snake 32,649

Snake 20,349 Frog 18,960

Snake takes 51.77% of vote

07:58:27 Knuckles 8,318 Snake 14,044
15:58:29 Knuckles 23,002 Snake 35,103

Snake 21,059 Knuckles 14,684

Snake takes 58.92% of vote


Even though Knuckles shot up during the day percentage-wise, he was never threatening to take updates from Snake. I'm not convinced that Knuckles is going to dominate the day vote.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:29:55 AM | Message Detail
OK, useing Luca Blight (Spring), I got Magus to be 28.93%.

Check I done the calculation right:
(10.97/18.96)*50

Now compared to Knux, that would put him stil ahead, (Knux ~24%)

Guess we gave Magus too much for SSF and he over performed verses Link.

---
Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:29:58 AM | Message Detail
Even though Knuckles shot up during the day percentage-wise, he was never threatening to take updates from Snake. I'm not convinced that Knuckles is going to dominate the day vote.

That's the wrong kind of thinking. It's not who *gets* the day/night vote, but where a character does BEST. It's generally accepted that Knuckles did better against Snake during the day than the night, no? Well, if that holds true against Magus, then by the end of the day he could be ahead.
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I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon
From: FourthDeus | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:30:29 AM | Message Detail
If Knuckles wins this match...I...I...

Let's just say that 5/18 may be forgiven.
---
5/18/05
Never forget. Never forgive.
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:31:04 AM | Message Detail
Magus 53.29% 5238
Knuckles the Echidna 46.71% 4592
TOTAL VOTES 9830

This is actually the best Magus has done in some time. He leads by 646.
From: cavedog0 | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:35:49 AM | Message Detail
Magus 53.14% 5336
Knuckles the Echidna 46.86% 4706
TOTAL VOTES 10042

Well, Knux just took a lot back...
---
"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:37:11 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:41:53 AM | Message Detail
Magus 53.11% 5452
Knuckles the Echidna 46.89% 4814
TOTAL VOTES 10266

Magus gains back very little.

Current lead: 638.

And with that, I'm going to bed.
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:43:15 AM | Message Detail
That's the wrong kind of thinking. It's not who *gets* the day/night vote, but where a character does BEST. It's generally accepted that Knuckles did better against Snake during the day than the night, no? Well, if that holds true against Magus, then by the end of the day he could be ahead.

Alright, to put a slightly different spin on what I had before...

Middle 8 hours: Snake 20,349 Frog 18,960
Snake takes 51.77% of vote

Rest of day: Snake 24,643 Frog 23,603
Snake takes 51.07% of vote


Middle 8 hours: Snake 21,059 Knuckles 14,684
Snake takes 58.92% of vote

Rest of day: Snake 27,422 Knuckles 18,262
Snake takes 60.03% of vote


We're not talking about huge differences here. Yes, Frog did slightly worse during the day, and Knuckles did a little better. But there's nothing that would indicate that Knuckles should run away with the day vote. I think we're looking at a good, tight match.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:45:17 AM | Message Detail
Also, if you do a little calculation, my stat for Magus ( 28.93%) looks about right.

(26.74% / 28.93%) * 50 = 46.21%

Which is almost what this match is on right now.

---
Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:45:47 AM | Message Detail
Magus 53.05% 5559
Knuckles the Echidna 46.95% 4920
TOTAL VOTES 10479

A mighty gain of 1 for Magus.

---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:50:44 AM | Message Detail
Magus 52.96% 5655
Knuckles the Echidna 47.04% 5023
TOTAL VOTES 10678

Knuckles gains by 7.

---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:53:45 AM | Message Detail
Knuckles is gaining before the actual day vote begins... o_0

This is incredible... he's actually doing it!

---
Smurf , the cream of Knuckles Fanboyism
Now Playing: Tales of Symphonia (again), Burnout 3 (still), Loz:Minish Cap
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:55:45 AM | Message Detail
Magus 52.89% 5759
Knuckles the Echidna 47.11% 5130
TOTAL VOTES 10889

Knuckles gains by 3.

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: Rodri316 | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:55:48 AM | Message Detail
I knew Knuckles had a chance, but I still hope Magus barely pulls it off. However, if Knuckles wins, hopefully my Squall > Magus prediction might be more likely.
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Summer 2005 Contest -- Current Score: 20/21
Today's Prediction -- Sarah Kerrigan vs. Vincent Valentine
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 8/10/2005 2:59:13 AM | Message Detail
I think even if Magus does win, at this rate, Squall > Magus is a lot more likely.
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/
From: Starion | Posted: 8/10/2005 3:01:06 AM | Message Detail
The early East Coast day vote begins!!
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/10/2005 3:01:27 AM | Message Detail
Magus 52.67% 5833
Knuckles the Echidna 47.33% 5241
TOTAL VOTES 11074

Holy ****.

Knuckles gained by 27.

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: consolefreak | Posted: 8/10/2005 3:03:05 AM | Message Detail
Knuckles gained by 27.

37, even.

---
even when a pawn becomes a queen, it's still just a playing piece -President Johnson, MGS2. SC2k5: 21/22. Today: Magus, tomorrow: Squall
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/10/2005 3:04:26 AM | Message Detail
Man, I hope there's no Romero-like cheating going on here...please, please, can we have an exciting match without the prospect of it being tainted by mass cheating?
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I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/10/2005 3:06:02 AM | Message Detail
Magus 52.6% 5919
Knuckles the Echidna 47.4% 5333

6 for Knuckles.

---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 8/10/2005 3:06:32 AM | Message Detail
Is this good news for Sonic fans or Megaman fans when they face eachother? Knuckles proves now that Megaman could be underrated in the Adjusted stats, but this could also mean that Sonic characters are stronger this year..

Anyway, Go Knuckles!!
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From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/10/2005 3:07:02 AM | Message Detail
37, even.

Yeah, sorry abou that.

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/10/2005 3:11:08 AM | Message Detail
Magus 52.64% 6040
Knuckles the Echidna 47.36% 5435
TOTAL VOTES 11475

Magus gained 19.



---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 8/10/2005 3:11:29 AM | Message Detail
Huzzah for an increase.
---
Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 8/10/2005 3:11:58 AM | Message Detail
Man, I hope there's no Romero-like cheating going on here...please, please, can we have an exciting match without the prospect of it being tainted by mass cheating?

*shakes head*

No, I don't think there's been any cheating on the level of a Romero. Unless someone's sapping votes from Magus by osmosis and transfering 'em over to Knuckles.

Knux isn't blowing him away with huge amounts of votes; Magus is just sucking right now by the truckload. His earnings are borderline miniscule for someone who should be near or at his peak early. Check out the match display updates and have a look.

http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2088
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/10/2005 3:16:09 AM | Message Detail
Magus 52.56% 6132
Knuckles the Echidna 47.44% 5535
TOTAL VOTES 11667

And Knuckles doesn't let him continue as he gets a tiny gain back.

---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 8/10/2005 3:16:13 AM | Message Detail
And Knuckles gained with 7 votes again.
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From: Mister Mario | Posted: 8/10/2005 3:18:48 AM | Message Detail
It might be trying to save face, although I don't really like Magus all that much, but he can still be equal to Squall. Knux. just has to be a little above Kirby, which doesn't seem far fetched.

<_<
---
Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/10/2005 3:20:23 AM | Message Detail
...they've been stuck at 600 votes for two hours? This is insane.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/10/2005 3:21:32 AM | Message Detail
Magus 52.41% 6208
Knuckles the Echidna 47.59% 5637
TOTAL VOTES 11845

Knuckles gains with 26.

---
Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
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