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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 195
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:24:39 AM | Message Detail
I do believe, fellas, that Kncukles will be both this board's savior and target if he happens to win somehow.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:25:14 AM | Message Detail
Indeed, I never once heard a single person even remotely question this match's outcome. Multiple people said they lacked faith in Magus overall, but I never read anyone express doubt about the actual outcome.

Has there ever been a match even within 55/45 in which the whole board was extremely one-sided like Magus/Knuckles? Ryu/Rikku comes close for this contest...

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Chinballz | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:25:52 AM | Message Detail
Pac Man over Ocelot just became even more of a possibility.
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Moisten your dreams with man urine.
http://www.geocities.com/nicklegends/ - All the Legends of the Hidden Temple info you could possibly want.
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:26:01 AM | Message Detail
Magus 54.01% 3641
Knuckles the Echidna 45.99% 3100
TOTAL VOTES 6741

Magus up by 541.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:26:52 AM | Message Detail
"square is typically bad in day."

This is untrue. Magus may be, but square as a whole is not.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:26:58 AM | Message Detail
Has there ever been a match even within 55/45 in which the whole board was extremely one-sided like Magus/Knuckles? Ryu/Rikku comes close for this contest...

Plenty of people thought Rikku could get pretty close to that percentage. But unfortunately, she never had a chance of actually winning. Knuckles, quite obviously, has a huge chance.
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I need to put something here.
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:27:39 AM | Message Detail
I'm honestly thinking that the Magus by 80 could've just been a voting fluctuation in Magus's favor. It hasn't exactly been consistent, Magus by 2, Magus by 37, Magus by 4, etc.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: cavedog0 | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:28:05 AM | Message Detail
Wtf? Magus wins a 5 minute poll by 80, then comes back and wins only by 2, then back to 20, then 4, then 30. WTF!?
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!
From: creativename | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:28:15 AM | Message Detail
At least Magus is doing marginally better here than he was at this point against Ganon...

http://geocities.com/cyber1166/gamefaqs/03Summer/GanonVSMagusUpdates.txt

(though those matches started 2 hours earlier, as TRE said; don't know what the impact of that might be)
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: creativename | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:29:12 AM | Message Detail
You are right, Harrich. If Knuckles wins this he instantly becomes a legend.

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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:29:39 AM | Message Detail
Somebody inform CJay to keep an eye out for this poll; it's fishy on Magus's side, it sounds like.

I'm biased as all hell, and I really don't care. =)
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: cavedog0 | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:30:31 AM | Message Detail
...
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:31:24 AM | Message Detail
Knux went down again.

I'm gonna go on to bed...but would anybody take Kirby over Magus right now?
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:31:38 AM | Message Detail
Yay for Knuckles having a bad update!
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:31:46 AM | Message Detail
I bet Snake's wang must be growing by the second right now.

"So ya, this is the guy I've been pwning for three years. Ya, he'll beat Magus. Ya, I know. Ya, it's huge."
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: creativename | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:31:49 AM | Message Detail
Seriously, does anyone recall Knuckles>Magus even being mentioned as a joke anytime in a Stats & Discussion topic?
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:32:11 AM | Message Detail
I'd take Magus over Kirby fairly easily... Squall on the other hand <_<
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: Applekidjosh | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:32:13 AM | Message Detail
... if Knux wins, will there be any perfects left at all?
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No longer on the Leaderboard... but it was fun being on top of the world.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:33:23 AM | Message Detail
Seriously, does anyone recall Knuckles>Magus even being mentioned as a joke anytime in a Stats & Discussion topic?

Not even once. Like I said, I've seen much more (infinitely more) discussion revolving around Gordon/Leon.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: cavedog0 | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:33:24 AM | Message Detail
"So ya, this is the guy I've been pwning for three years. Ya, he'll beat Magus. Ya, I know. Ya, it's huge."

XD!!!

Mind if I quote that?
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:33:37 AM | Message Detail
I'd actually probably have taken Kirby over Magus had Magus been in Tidus's spot. Like I said, in raw stats I support Kirby over Tidus, but I just couldn't stomach Tidus doing that much worse than Squall did.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:33:57 AM | Message Detail
Seriously, does anyone recall Knuckles>Magus even being mentioned as a joke anytime in a Stats & Discussion topic?

Well, JOKINGLY, me and Harrich have been spamming the beginning and end of every stats topic with Knuckles > Magus posts... didn't actually think it had a chance of being TRUE though.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:35:01 AM | Message Detail
Mind if I quote that?

Sure, knock yourself out. And thanks for asking, although you didn't need to. =)
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:36:16 AM | Message Detail
Unless this is all Magus being overrated, then it's a shame we don't have Tails and/or Shadow around to give us some more interesting matches.

Harrich style question, would anyone take Shadow over Knuckles now?
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I need to put something here.
From: creativename | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:36:24 AM | Message Detail
Snake's been getting tough-guy SFF on Knuckles all these years. We should have known! Heh.

(and just so no one takes that seriously, yes, it was a joke)
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:36:55 AM | Message Detail
Another tiny gain for Magus.

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: creativename | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:37:25 AM | Message Detail
Shadow vs. Knuckles would be a ***** to predict.

I think most would go with Knuckles, just because "what have you done for me lately", and this stands out so much.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:37:29 AM | Message Detail
Harrich style question, would anyone take Shadow over Knuckles now?

I would have never taken Shadow over Knuckles.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:38:55 AM | Message Detail
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/10/2005 4:29:39 AM | Message Detail | #211
Somebody inform CJay to keep an eye out for this poll; it's fishy on Magus's side, it sounds like.

I'm biased as all hell, and I really don't care. =)


No, I fully agree with you. Magus is being very erratic, and it's not like Chrono Trigger hasn't had people cheating for it in the past.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:40:17 AM | Message Detail
Looks like Snake > Magus =/.
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 19/19
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Crono
From: creativename | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:40:44 AM | Message Detail
There's definitely a "guilt by association" thing here, and the erratic updates just make it more convincing.

It would be really annoying if Magus is winning relatively comfortably at the end, and then has 2,000 votes taken away from him. But I could see that happening.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:40:50 AM | Message Detail
It is just me, or did Knuckles gain?

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: cavedog0 | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:41:12 AM | Message Detail
KNUX WINS!!!
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!
From: RevolverAk47 | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:41:18 AM | Message Detail
you missed the 25-30 upate, went .83 to .87, not to 46.03. Magus lead went down aroun 10 points.
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- - -
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:41:21 AM | Message Detail
Magus 53.97% 4068
Knuckles the Echidna 46.03% 3470
TOTAL VOTES 7538

Knux is going to eat Magus for breakfast once morning hits.
From: cavedog0 | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:41:31 AM | Message Detail
...his first 5 minute update...
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:41:37 AM | Message Detail
And the Knuckles comeback begins. Given what he does with the day vote, I'm ready to throw in the towel. Good night, guys.

Looks like my "If Magus were to lose prematurely I'd want him to lose to Knuckles" premonition may come true after all.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:41:47 AM | Message Detail
And yes, he did win that last update.
From: cavedog0 | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:42:33 AM | Message Detail
w00t! And with that I'm off to bed.

*crosses fingers again*
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:42:46 AM | Message Detail
Wow, that was one nice update for the Echidna. Did anyone notice the spellchecker doesn't accept echidna?
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I need to put something here.
From: creativename | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:43:48 AM | Message Detail
I expect Knuckles to be winning when I wake up.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:46:01 AM | Message Detail
Magus regains 13 votes as his percentage takes another hit.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:46:09 AM | Message Detail
From: creativename | Posted: 8/10/2005 4:43:48 AM | Message Detail | #241
I expect Knuckles to be winning when I wake up.


So do I. This is looking somewhat like a Knuckles/Kefka affair.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:46:58 AM | Message Detail
Dabu: If it means anything for Sonic, it's that the unadjusted stats are more accurate when looking at 2004. Sonic may beat Mega Man, in other words.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:47:03 AM | Message Detail
I expect Knuckles to be winning when I wake up.

You may not have to sleep for very long.
From: whatev | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:47:46 AM | Message Detail
Man, I still can't believe this. I will be ROFL if it turns out that Magus did get rSFF on Crono.
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The world is toroidal
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:48:58 AM | Message Detail
Whoa, whoa, whoa! How is Magus doing so poorly? Can Knuckles actually win???

This can only mean one thing.

Snake is still in the Noble Nine? <_<
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I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon
From: Chinballz | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:50:07 AM | Message Detail
I don't usually wake up until after 2 pm CT, so Knuckles will probably have 55% by then, completely destroying my bracket (I have Magus winning the division). Time to start thinking of a Guru Contest sig.
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Moisten your dreams with man urine.
http://www.geocities.com/nicklegends/ - All the Legends of the Hidden Temple info you could possibly want.
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:50:39 AM | Message Detail
Magus 53.73% 4310
Knuckles the Echidna 46.27% 3711
TOTAL VOTES 8021

Magus falls fast and hard that last update. Knuckles wins again, gaining 12.
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 8/10/2005 1:50:42 AM | Message Detail
Fun fact of the day from the Department of Misleading Statistics!

While there are technically another month and a half of matches to sit through before we can officially crown a 2k5 contest champion, we have technology at our disposal that can definitively answer our questions today.

"Is it time travel???"

No, you stupid ****, it's better than that! It's a little thing I like to call exTRAPolation!

"ExTRAPolation? Gee golly, what's that?"

Well, you see Billy, by comparing data gathered from past contest matches, we can make safe, sound predictions on how two characters would perform against each other if they were to ever meet up in a match.

"Shucks, mister, that sure does sound complicated!"

Maybe for a nancy-boy like yourself, but here at the Department of Misleading Statistics, we pride ourselves on making the right projections every time. Of course, exTRAPolation sure does make our jobs easy. It's never wrong!

"Wow! That sounds great! But...um, can I ask you a question?"

Sure!

"Um, so this exTRAPolation thing...how does it take overlapping fanbases into account?"

...I think that at this point, the studio audience will agree that our little friend has long outlived his usefulness.

"...What?"

HADOKEN!!!!!!

*ahem*

Anyway, as I started to say earlier, thanks to the wonders of exTRAPolation, we here at the Department of Misleading Statistics have been able to reach a consensus on which of the 67 characters in this field will emerge as our grand champion...and all it took was six easy steps!!!

*******The Only Data That Matters*******

2k5 Summer Contest: Sam Fisher = 35.24% on DK
2k3 Summer Contest: Sam Fisher = 33.75% on Magus


1st ETRAPR (ExTRAPolated Result): DK = 48.88% on Magus

1st ETRAPR: DK = 48.88% on Magus
2k4: DK = 43.53% on Vivi


2nd ETRAPR: Magus = 44.53% on Vivi

2nd ETRAPR: Magus = 44.53% on Vivi
2k5: Vivi = 40.44% on Zelda


3rd ETRAPR: Magus = 36.02% on Zelda

3rd ETRAPR: Magus = 36.02% on Zelda
2k3: Ganondorf = 49.70% on Magus


4th ETRAPR: Ganondorf = 35.80% on Zelda

4th ETRAPR: Ganondorf = 35.80% on Zelda
2k5: Ganondorf = 41.83% on Sephiroth


5th ETRAPR: Sephiroth = 42.79% on Zelda

5th ETRAPR: Sephiroth = 42.79% on Zelda
2k2: Sephiroth = 43.35% on Link


6th ETRAPR: Link = 49.35% on Zelda

Your Champion: Zelda!

*******End TODTM*******

There you have it! If you have any questions, please direct them to that wall over there, because, quite frankly, we at the Department of Misleading Statistics don't give a damn. Over and out!
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
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