When you make topics with bold predictions that come as far away from coming true as they possibly can, you open yourself up to criticism. That's kind of the whole point. High risk, high return. You get to tell people you were right; or you mocked. That's the way it is.

Yes, but it shouldn't be. Tell me, did I spend the whole day making fun of each and every one of you in return for you all condemning Harrich and myself in regards to Master Hand over Kuja? No. Just because it's generally accepted that you should be mean to people who make bold predictions, doesn't make it right.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

Well you already know what the risk is... so you might as well take advantage of the reward to counterbalance it. ;)
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Yes, but it shouldn't be. Tell me, did I spend the whole day making fun of each and every one of you in return for you all condemning Harrich and myself in regards to Master Hand over Kuja? No. Just because it's generally accepted that you should be mean to people who make bold predictions, doesn't make it right.

I agree with that, but you're acting like every single Vincent fan is making fun of you. We really aren't.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

2005-08-09 19:05:00 18394 69797 20.86% 79.14% 88191 51403
2005-08-09 19:00:01 18337 69562 20.86% 79.14% 87899 51225
2005-08-09 18:55:00 18275 69346 20.86% 79.14% 87621 51071
2005-08-09 18:50:00 18220 69126 20.86% 79.14% 87346 50906
2005-08-09 18:45:00 18165 68908 20.86% 79.14% 87073 50743
2005-08-09 18:40:00 18105 68683 20.86% 79.14% 86788 50578


Looks like Vincent is stabling at 79.14

---
"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka

stabling? Sounds sexy.
---
Please sign this petition for a history board:
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I agree with that, but you're acting like every single Vincent fan is making fun of you. We really aren't.

Well, when you've got idiotic nobodies saying, "Adept? More like idiot." And "Wow, you must feel pretty stupid for this to be swimming near the top of the forum," it gets on your nerves. And there happen to have been a lot of people who were actually being malicious, not just going through some fun ribbing. So... yeah.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

Too bad he isn't going to break 80%, but he has exceeded my expectations by leaps and bounds anyway.

So it's not like I have anything to complain...

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Heh, this is why I generally avoid making "Why ____ will destroy ____." topics. I won't particularly look forward to the insults when I'm wrong, and I won't care to dish them out when I'm right. Lose-lose situation if I ever saw one.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

These last two matches have brought out the worst from BOTH sides--Ulti, MM, HM, you're all to blame.
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Mia fan tusta.
{35}.

Heh, this is why I generally avoid making "Why ____ will destroy ____." topics. I won't particularly look forward to the insults when I'm wrong, and I won't care to dish them out when I'm right. Lose-lose situation if I ever saw one.

Yeah, the only reason I made it is because I like analyzing matches... I didn't get this ridiculous backlash for Master Chief vs Frog, but I supppose that's because I was actually right that time.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

"People who picked Vincent are just having their fun for a day. There's no harm in that. It isn't like this will continue days after the match is over."

I've been waiting for this moment for years, way back when only HM would strongly defend my stance on Vincent (though I did go a tad overboard back then... unless Kerrigan = Vyse). Years in the making, this moment was. I'm ecstatic, elated, and something else that starts with an "e" over my boy Vincent here.
---
Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

I know I'll be really happy if Tifa does better than expected on Vyse.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 20/22 points
Current Match Prediction: Magus vs. Knuckles the Echidna

Honestly, though, MM.
You should expect this.

Sure, Kuja and CJ bombed, but at least they weren't getting their asses blown out of the water.
And there are solid arguments backing them to do better than they did.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

"Well, when you've got idiotic nobodies saying, "Adept? More like idiot." And "Wow, you must feel pretty stupid for this to be swimming near the top of the forum," it gets on your nerves. And there happen to have been a lot of people who were actually being malicious, not just going through some fun ribbing. So... yeah."

Well, thank the heavens they know not of the CSaD and chill, man.

"Too bad he isn't going to break 80%"

What if Kerrigan is winning this segment of the vote and the later parts of the nigth vote favor him enough to take it? Don't ever say never.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

If Kerrigan is weaker than Ratchet, then Dante still has a chance. Don't count him out just yet.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 20/22 points
Current Match Prediction: Magus vs. Knuckles the Echidna

I can not believe people are creaming their pants about Vincent's performance against an unrecognizable PC villain who's never seen a contest before, and who's game's strength in the game contest was made through the work of spammers and vote stuffers. This proves absolutely nothing.
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http://www.cbs.com/primetime/bigbrother6/_polls/amc_poll.shtml
VOTE FOR KAYSAR!

You can fully expect every Dante fan I come across to get the same treatment when Vincent utterly destroys his poseur ass.

Can I do the same to you if Dante beats Vincent?
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.

"Can I do the same to you if Dante beats Vincent?"

Mise well, not that it'll ever happen.
---
Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

I know I'll be really happy if Tifa does better than expected on Vyse.

Me too.. =)

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka

Match 23: (3) Janus “Magus” Zeal vs. (6) Knuckles the Echidna

Past Performances

Janus “Magus” Zeal

Summer 2002
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Summer 2003
Beat Sam Fisher, 66.25% - 33.75%
Beat Ganondorf Dragmire, 50.30% - 49.70%
Lost to Link, 34.93% - 65.07%
Ranked: 9th

Summer 2004
Beat Luca Blight, 81.04% - 18.96%
Lost to Crono, 30.22% - 69.78%
Ranked: 22nd

Spring 2005
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Knuckles the Echidna

Summer 2002
Beat Akira Yuki, 80.56% - 19.44%
Lost to Solid Snake, 39.29% - 60.71%
Ranked: 15th

Summer 2003
Beat Yuna, 55.32% - 44.68%
Lost to Solid Snake, 36.87% - 63.13%
Ranked: 24th

Summer 2004
Beat Kefka Palazzo, 57.46% - 42.54%
Lost to Solid Snake, 40.46% - 59.54%
Ranked: 24th

Spring 2005
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Analysis

Well another year for Knuckles and just like all years we’ll be losing in round 2 to Solid Snake. Wait, Snake isn’t in his division, you mean he isn’t even on the same half of the bracket, well that’s great, but because of that he’s going to lose in the first round to Magus. Magus is the closest character to breaking the Elite 8 and there’s no way for Knuckles to escape a beating. He may even do worse against Magus then he did against Solid Snake.

Here we have Magus, the most likely character to make it out of this division alive, but if he does make it out of the division he’s going to get crushed by Crono like he did last year and Knuckles may be the only character to give a proper reading (Dante has DMC3 and Squall might suffer SFF). There’s also been much talk about Magus’ ranking some people think he’ll drop (mostly because of Tidus) while others think he’ll be stronger (mostly because of Crono). I think he more or less will stay the same thing.

Knuckles has versed Solid Snake three times and he’s gotten three different results and most of us can’t really explain him dropping in 2k3 then rising back up in 2k4. Knuckles is the weakest character to be in all of the summer contests and to win at least a match in all of them, but with Magus that record will now belong to Dante.

Like most characters from 20XX Knuckles can have two numbers he can either have 38% or he can let Magus double him. I think it will be the first option since that would put Knuckles close to his previous performances and if Sonic gain between the years I find it hard that Knuckles didn’t gain/fell from his number last year, but with some characters looked like they’ve dropped because 20XX I wouldn’t be surprised if Knuckles did get doubled.

Ok I think the board has cooled down from the Kefka/Vercetti match can we please have a close match where the winner doesn’t break 55% or something? No, well hopefully this match won’t break 70% like the others did in this division. One more thing before I finish this off. If Magus fails to break 60% on Knuckles tomorrow then I will regain confidence in Snake and he should make it to the final 4 with ease.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Janus “Magus” Zeal over Knuckles the Echidna

charmander6000’s Prediction: Magus wins, 62.14% - 37.86%

---
I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.

I know I'll be really happy if Tifa does better than expected on Vyse.

Me too.. =)

Just a question what do you think Tifa would get on Vyse anyways?
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.

Just a question what do you think Tifa would get on Vyse anyways?

At least 68%. Probably more than 70%.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 20/22 points
Current Match Prediction: Magus vs. Knuckles the Echidna

I know we don't know what Tifa is expected to get on Vyse but I hope it's somewhere in the mid 70s.. =)

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka

My analysis from the spread betting topic (spread is Magus +14):

This match is going to be quite a shock to many. Solid Snake got 60.71%, 63.13%, and 59.54% in his three matches with Knuckles in 2002-2004. Magus would have to be not too far from Solid in strength in order to get 57%.

If you extrapolate through the chain of matches Magus -> Luca Blight -> Wesker -> Kefka -> Knuckles, a very surprising result comes up. Magus got 81.04% against the fodderific Luca Blight. Wesker got 59.74% against the very same Luca Blight. Kefka then crushed Wesker with 70.37% of the vote. Finally, Knuckles beat out Kefka with 57.46%. When you do the math, you get that Knuckles would get 74.79% against Wesker and 79.70% against Luca Blight. That's pretty damn close to what Magus got.

Of course, you cannot ignore that characters change over the years. Kefka probably got a huge boost from receiving his angle pic against Wesker, so Knuckles would be expected to get less against Wesker and Luca. There's also the issue of George Romero's cheat votes for Kefka this year, which means he may have cheated in the spring, too.

Still, that should be more than enough to put Knuckles over 43%. I personally think he'll be around 45-46%. I also believe that Magus overperformed greatly in his match against Link in 2003, causing him to become very overrated.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

I also believe that Magus overperformed greatly in his match against Link in 2003, causing him to become very overrated.

...Ganondorf...
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Summer 2005 Contest - 20/22 points
Current Match Prediction: Magus vs. Knuckles the Echidna

We'll find out if Magus is overrated or not tomorrow .. I, for one, think he right where he should be..

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka

If Magus struggles tomorrow I'll be taking bets on Vincent/Crono as if there isn't a round 2 or 3.
---
Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

The thing about magus that tends to make him look weaker then he is at times is that he doesn't put up number that someone at his level should against complete fodder, but he still manages to do perfectly fine against the heavy hitters.
---
Please sign this petition for a history board:
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The thing about magus that tends to make him look weaker then he is at times is that he doesn't put up number that someone at his level should against complete fodder, but he still manages to do perfectly fine against the heavy hitters.

That's because Magus has a history of not bringing in good vote totals against fodder. The heavy hitters he has gone up against are able to bring in more votes.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 20/22 points
Current Match Prediction: Magus vs. Knuckles the Echidna

"but he still manages to do perfectly fine against the heavy hitters."

No, he did fine againt Link and failed against Crono due to SFF. That's not enough evidence. "Prove" it once and I'll listen to you, "prove" it twice and I'll believe you, prove it three times and it is fact.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

That's because Magus has a history of not bringing in good vote totals against fodder. The heavy hitters he has gone up against are able to bring in more votes.

I know, that's why people shouldn't compare magus to other people through numbers that he puts up against fodder. That's all I was pointing out.
---
Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996

I'll gladly lose my points if Vincent can beat Magus/Squall and give Crono a hell of a close fight

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka

From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/9/2005 10:08:49 PM | Message Detail | #056
Well, when you've got idiotic nobodies saying, "Adept? More like idiot." And "Wow, you must feel pretty stupid for this to be swimming near the top of the forum," it gets on your nerves. And there happen to have been a lot of people who were actually being malicious, not just going through some fun ribbing. So... yeah.

But that has nothing to do with the Stats topic, so why are you taking us off-topic? I don't want to sound mean-spirited, but I hope you understand why people around here would get somewhat peeved by this.


Back on subject:
How much do people think Magus is going to give up after the first 15 minutes; and after the day vote starts?

I'm thinking he'll be around 70% real early, and maybe stabilize around the low 60's. Then drop 2-4 points during the day; and regain a half a point or so during the second night vote.
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Me too, me too. I wouldn't be disapointed to see Vincent at my initial prediction from 2 years ago.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

But that has nothing to do with the Stats topic, so why are you taking us off-topic? I don't want to sound mean-spirited, but I hope you understand why people around here would get somewhat peeved by this.

It was to explain why seeing people who are supposed to be smart and, ya know, friends act like that would piss me off. I'm getting enough of it from stupid people.
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119

Chichiri.. Do you like FFVII.. If yes, who's your fav character?

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka

Magus is gonna start off like a beast gathering almost 70% of the vote. Then, he'll collapse to about 60% during the day vote and then regain 1% during the second night vote.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 20/22 points
Current Match Prediction: Magus vs. Knuckles the Echidna

No, he did fine againt Link and failed against Crono due to SFF. That's not enough evidence. "Prove" it once and I'll listen to you, "prove" it twice and I'll believe you, prove it three times and it is fact.

He also did well against gannon, who is indeed what I'd clasify as a "heavy hitter" even if he isn't quite strong enough to take on the elite eight. He's up there though. Other then that we can't say anything about magus last year except what he did against alucard since the absolute pwning he got at the hands of crono (quite obviously caused by sff) stopped us from gathering any more data on him.
---
Please sign this petition for a history board:
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Oh...and regarding the Red XIII vs. Master Chief thing, I think that proves my point. Too many people said Red XIII has no shot against Master Chief. When, at worst, he'd have a decent shot.

People just underestimate FF7 too much, and think that others are overestimating it. And don't see the historical pattern of the people supposedly overestimating FF7 being right time after time.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Magus is gonna start off like a beast gathering almost 70% of the vote. Then, he'll collapse to about 60% during the day vote and then regain 1% during the second night vote.

I actually expect Magus to do better than 61%
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Summer Contest 2k5 - Points: 19/21
Kerrigan Vs. Vincent Valentine - Bracket: Vincent Valentine - Vote: Vincent

Yes, I like FF7 (though I actually used to hate it with a passion before I was made to play it, couldn't let go of the "greatness" of past FFs) and My favorite is clearly Vincent (Seph and Aeris both rate quite highly as well).
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

If Magus is able to achieve a doubling.. That is by no means that he can beat Snake.. I agree with whoever posted that the only time you can say ______ beats ______ is by having that character beat the other character themselves when it comes down to close match..

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka

If Magus doubles Knuckles, then Squall is going down in Round 2.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 20/22 points
Current Match Prediction: Magus vs. Knuckles the Echidna

Anybody have a link to the match updates for Magus vs. Ganon?

Ngamer's thengamer.com/gamefaqs seems to be gone...
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Magus is gonna start off like a beast gathering almost 70% of the vote. Then, he'll collapse to about 60% during the day vote and then regain 1% during the second night vote.

Magus is a board favorite of course, but Knuckles is too. I don't see 70%.
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I need to put something here.

" who is indeed what I'd clasify as a "heavy hitter" even if he isn't quite strong enough to take on the elite eight."

I don't feel the evidence is sufficient for Ganon, either. It's highly believable, which is why Magus is over Vincent in my bracket (*cries*) but I'm not convinced.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

Link
Cloud
Sephiroth
Samus
Mario
Crono
Mega Man?????
Sonic?????

Do you guys have a separate name for them? I am just curious.. Since there are quite some people saying that there shouldn't be a noble nine since the last few top tiers are too close in strength..


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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka

Cloud > Vince. =p

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

We usually just call them elites.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power

"Cloud > Vince."

Only in the stats.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power