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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 193
From: TheBattleOx | Posted: 8/9/2005 1:42:03 PM | Message Detail
From: RockMFR 5 | Posted: 8/8/2005 2:10:57 AM | Message Detail | #007
I'm sorry Ulti, but you are just plain wrong this time. Kerrigan with 80%. Easy.
~~~~~~~

Oh man that guy was wrong
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The Leader Of The Kirby Army(161 members)
~*Vote Kirby*~ Match 2 (1)Kirby vs (4)Tidus ~*Vote Kirby*~
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 8/9/2005 1:45:07 PM | Message Detail
Honestly, I thought that Kuja got saddled with a horrible match pic. I know that some people thought it looked cool, but I thought it was hideous and pretty unrecognizible.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/9/2005 1:46:33 PM | Message Detail
Vincent's inches away from 79%

Oh, and umm... idiots blah blah blah fools blah blah blah stupid blah morons blah blah. You know where it all goes.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/9/2005 1:47:46 PM | Message Detail
The hypocrisy of this topic never ceases to amaze me, though. The Vincent supporters say: "Looks like people are adjusting Kerrigan to absurdly low levels to justify Dante > Vincent". And yet, just yesterday, the same people were doing the very same thing with Terra to justify their pick.

I don't need any other match, or any match PERIOD to justify my pick of Vincent over Dante. They carry the EXACT same type of appeal. Vincent is from a MUCH more popular game. Dante originates from a system that most of Vincent's fans probably went on to buy.

I didn't NEED this match for me to be fairly confident that Vincent is more popular than Dante. You hardly EVER see me using stats and numbers to try and justify any of my picks. I never thought Terra would have any strength in this contest from the beginning. Common sense tells me that Vincent Valentine from FFVII is more popular than Dante Sparda from Devil May Cry. Dante has proven to be nothing special in this contest. Hell, RYU was able to thoroughly own him, and fighting games aren't even that big on this site.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 8/9/2005 1:47:48 PM | Message Detail
Knuckles
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/9/2005 1:48:53 PM | Message Detail
...will be doubled by Magus.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: Vortex268 | Posted: 8/9/2005 1:50:48 PM | Message Detail
Hey Ulti. I'm just wondering, what are your views on the recently-banned user named "islandschronic"?
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From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/9/2005 1:51:09 PM | Message Detail
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 8/9/2005 1:47:48 PM | Message Detail
Knuckles
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/9/2005 1:48:53 PM | Message Detail
...will be doubled by Magus.


XD
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/9/2005 1:53:37 PM | Message Detail
therealmnm, you do know Devil May Cry originated on the PS2, correct?
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/9/2005 1:54:08 PM | Message Detail
Okay then, mnm, I clearly wasn't talking to you, then. Your argument is fine, and to be honest, more convincing than anything the raw stats people will throw at me for Vincent > Dante. Because from a purely statistical perspective, Vincent doesn't have me entirely convinced yet, and I doubt he will.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: andaca | Posted: 8/9/2005 1:56:37 PM | Message Detail
I'm sorry Ulti, but you are just plain wrong this time. Kerrigan with 80%. Easy.

I want that framed and put on my wall next to a picture of the final results of this match.

For the record, if Vincent takes the contest my sig is going to permanently be converted to a shrine to the Goth King.
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Hail to the Queen of Blades.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/9/2005 1:57:53 PM | Message Detail
I still don't believe people haven't discovered it yet. It's probably the biggest reason that most people would agree that 2k3 Aeris will be stronger then Vincent.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/9/2005 1:58:08 PM | Message Detail
Random thoughts for the day.

I was looking around at some VG based boards on other sites last night, and noticed that some of them had topics discussing the GameFAQs contest. I checked on them to see what the prevailing wisdom for Vinny vs. Kerrigan was... and for the most part, every topic was full of people saying "Who's Kerrigan?" I'd estimate that about a quarter of the people in those topics knew who she was.

I immediately looked at that, and said to myself, "Alright, change of plans, Vincent wins with 72%." Guess I still overestimated Kerrigan.

Tomorrow's match will be interesting.... largely because if Magus beats Knuckles by more than 62%, that pretty much proves that Snake is not the 9th strongest character in the contest, and basically kicks him out of the Noble Nine. However, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Magus won't... that it'll be a 60-40 affair instead. We'll see.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/9/2005 1:59:43 PM | Message Detail
Still, though, I don't think we can make any assumptions as to Vincent vs. Dante yet. I mean, we know that Vincent is strong. However, Dante did better than this against Ratchet.

And I think Ratchet vs. Kerrigan would be a damned close match.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Just Some Person | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:02:06 PM | Message Detail
He keeps on increasing!

This has likely been asked multiple times already, but: is a clear quadrupling completely out of the question now?

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"Being a Hunter has to be the best job in the world! Well, next to pimp..."
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:02:24 PM | Message Detail
therealmnm, you do know Devil May Cry originated on the PS2, correct?

Dante originates from a system that most of Vincent's fans <U>probably went on to buy.</U>
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:03:10 PM | Message Detail
I own DMC, if you must know.
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MM are my INITIALS "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:03:58 PM | Message Detail
And I think Ratchet vs. Kerrigan would be a damned close match.

I hope you remember that SC is expected to get 37% on FF VII while none of the ratchet and clank series even made it in.

Kerrigan might be worthless fodder, but NOT to the point of struggling against Ratchet!

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:05:33 PM | Message Detail
Out of the question? No, not if Kerrigan holds a Kefka-like voting pattern. It'll be rough, but doable.

Oh, and in case anyone thought differently I am a fan of Dante and consider him underappreciated on GameFAQs... he's still getting smashed next round.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:06:54 PM | Message Detail
He keeps on increasing!

This has likely been asked multiple times already, but: is a clear quadrupling completely out of the question now?


A clear quadrupling is almost out of the question, since the winner's percentage in blow-out matches tend to stall in the last hours.

Just check out Cloud and Seph matches as references.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:11:21 PM | Message Detail
Kerrigan might be worthless fodder, but NOT to the point of struggling against Ratchet!

I'm not so sure about that. Kerrigan is weak. Really, really, weak. No one knows who she is. We all deluded ourselves into thinking Starcraft characters are well known by hanging around this board... but they're not. At least people know who Ratchet is, what with his good-selling games and the various TV commercials about them.

I can't prove anything until next round. But I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Kerrigan reach a particularly low place in the ol' X-Stats.

Also: This match makes me think that organized efforts on the part of the board to get a character in may be a bad idea. Look at what it did for the Kerrigan fans.

God. Think of what would have happened if Ceej had stuck Kerrigan up against another 4 seed, like say, Ness. It'd be like Ness vs. CJ for the board brackets, only WORSE.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:12:24 PM | Message Detail
Tomorrow's match will be interesting.... largely because if Magus beats Knuckles by more than 62%, that pretty much proves that Snake is not the 9th strongest character in the contest, and basically kicks him out of the Noble Nine. However, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Magus won't... that it'll be a 60-40 affair instead. We'll see.

That's where I disagree with most of the guys here. If the concept of a Noble Nine is still even being taken seriously (I think it's all glitz and glamor at this point), then it will only be "destroyed" or "changed" if one of the original members loses to a character from outside the Nine. Percentages won't change this, regardless of how well Magus does against Knuckles. This, of course, is why Snake is probably the character I'm most interested in this year.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: seeraamaazu | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:13:47 PM | Message Detail
Also: This match makes me think that organized efforts on the part of the board to get a character in may be a bad idea. Look at what it did for the Kerrigan fans.

Look what it did for Vincent fans.
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DEFENCE, DEFENCE
"Alas, history is nothing but a lie agreed upon" - Napoleon Bonaparte.
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:14:39 PM | Message Detail
The board didin't organize Vincent to get in the contest. Kerrigan and Terra only made it in cause of the Board 8 nomination topic. Vincent wasn't even on that.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:15:31 PM | Message Detail
I'm not sure if Vincent was even one of the winners from Leonhart's tournament...
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:15:39 PM | Message Detail
then it will only be "destroyed" or "changed" if one of the original members loses to a character from outside the Nine.

Probably. But I think what will happen when/if a Noble Nine character loses (lookin at you, Snake) is that there will be a large debate in this topic as to who deserves to take that character's spot, whether it's the one who beat them or the one who looks the best in the stats.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:16:52 PM | Message Detail
It'll be kinda like picking a new Supreme Court Justice, only not.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:17:06 PM | Message Detail
"We all deluded ourselves into thinking Starcraft characters are well known by hanging around this board... but they're not. "

And I only told you guys that for a couple years.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: Dark115 | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:21:24 PM | Message Detail
i think next year we should get some of the snubs back in like Aeris, Shadow and Liquid Snake. Liquid may have done bad in the Spring Contest but are those results reliable? Alot of numbers are messed up when compared to the Summer Stats. In any case those 3 characters have been much better than Terra and Kerrigan in a contest setting
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http://users.ign.com/collection/Dark115.
Currently Playing: God of War(PS2), Final Fantasy VIII (PS1), Mega Man X4 (PS1)
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:22:57 PM | Message Detail
Probably. But I think what will happen when/if a Noble Nine character loses (lookin at you, Snake) is that there will be a large debate in this topic as to who deserves to take that character's spot, whether it's the one who beat them or the one who looks the best in the stats.

That could be the case, but if either Snake or Sonic drop the ball this year, I'd argue for the whole Noble Nine concept to be completely discredited. Think about it: Bowser beats Snake with 50.2%. Are we to assume that Snake can never beat Bowser again and that the Mario villain is suddenly part of this elite group? I certainly wouldn't. I already believe that outside of our six or so top guys, we have a separate group of 8-10 characters all capable of challenging each other on any given day, and this contest may prove that.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Crono801 | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:25:13 PM | Message Detail
Leonhart's winners were Kerrigan, Tifa, Leon Kennedy, Lloyd Irving, and Revolver Ocelot, IIRC.
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Welcome to Moonside. Wecomel to Soonmide. Moonwel ot cosidme
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:25:51 PM | Message Detail
And of the two we've seen so far they've both bombed.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:27:52 PM | Message Detail
Kuja is a "well loved villain" from a slightly less popular game

No, he's really not, and he never was.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Buzzup | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:28:25 PM | Message Detail
Make that 3, since Ocelot bombed as well ^^

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As much as I want to put something original about the Guru Contest here, I can't, because Yoblazer owned me way too hard.
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:29:45 PM | Message Detail
i think next year we should get some of the snubs back in like Aeris, Shadow and Liquid Snake. Liquid may have done bad in the Spring Contest but are those results reliable? Alot of numbers are messed up when compared to the Summer Stats. In any case those 3 characters have been much better than Terra and Kerrigan in a contest setting

I'd like to see how strong a post-AC Aeris can be, so yeah I hope she made it in next year.

I couldn't care less about Liquid or Shadow though.

I agree though that both Kerrigan and Terra waste valuable contest spots.

But at least after this year, their supporters will stop *****ing about how well they would've done if they made it in.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:30:35 PM | Message Detail
Ocelot atleast has some strength though. Lloyd and Kerrigan just bombed period(Lloyd still can redeem himself against Zero but I doubt it).
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:31:27 PM | Message Detail
This match is a little behind Tidus/KoAC now, but should still be able to break 100,000 with ease. FFVII brings in the voters, yo.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:32:28 PM | Message Detail
Shadow has his own game coming out soon. There is no doubt in my mind he'll be returning next year, unless that game completely bombs.
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I need to put something here.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:35:43 PM | Message Detail
Sarah Kerrigan 21% 14838
Vincent Valentine 79% 55833
TOTAL VOTES 70671

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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Phediuk | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:38:07 PM | Message Detail
Vincent has reached 79%.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
From: ExquisiteSamurai | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:43:43 PM | Message Detail
2005-08-09 14:40:01 14927 56164 21.00% 79.00% 71091 41237
2005-08-09 14:35:00 14838 55833 21.00% 79.00% 70671 40995
2005-08-09 14:30:01 14766 55526 21.01% 78.99% 70292 40760
2005-08-09 14:25:00 14688 55194 21.02% 78.98% 69882 40506

Breaking 80% is impossible now.. But hopefully he'll keep his 79%

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"Life...Dreams...Hope...Where'd they come from? And where are they headed...? These things...I'm going to destroy!!" -Kefka
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:43:46 PM | Message Detail
People have said that FFVII never shows any signs of weakness...do you forget about the Spring Contest so soon? Bowser was able to make Sephiroth look weaker than Samus.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Tai | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:43:53 PM | Message Detail
Dante pickers must sit down, now. :-)
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PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (214 Signs!)
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:44:02 PM | Message Detail
This match is a little behind Tidus/KoAC now, but should still be able to break 100,000 with ease. FFVII brings in the voters, yo.

Nah, 95k easily, but shouldn't reach 100k.
Even a match involving Cloud won't break 100k if his opponent is total fodder.

Vincent has reached 79%.

Too bad, it looks like he won't reach 80%, unless the late afternoon vote heavily favors him.
This is SC's weakest hours right now, while the 2nd night vote is usually SC's strongest.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:46:03 PM | Message Detail
People have said that FFVII never shows any signs of weakness...do you forget about the Spring Contest so soon? Bowser was able to make Sephiroth look weaker than Samus.

I think it's more a case of FFVII never disappointing. In the five completed contests we've had, the only time I can remember FFVII disappointing was Mario/Cloud 2002, and that is far and away the biggest fluke match we've ever seen.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:47:45 PM | Message Detail
People have said that FFVII never shows any signs of weakness...do you forget about the Spring Contest so soon? Bowser was able to make Sephiroth look weaker than Samus.

Whoever it was, it certainly wasn't me.

FF VII has showed lots of signs of weakness:
- Cloud lost to Mario in 2k2, even though it's a result of PGC's intervention, but still...
- Cloud lost to Link in 2k4, after beating him in 2k3.
- Seph did a marvelous choke job in Sp2k5 against Bowser.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:47:55 PM | Message Detail
Even a match involving Cloud won't break 100k if his opponent is total fodder.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1313

Sorry. Had to do it. =P
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:48:24 PM | Message Detail
Jesus, 79%? Magus or Squall had better hope that Kerrigan is a Kuja-style choke job, else they have no chance.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: seeraamaazu | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:48:36 PM | Message Detail
Too bad, it looks like he won't reach 80%, unless the late afternoon vote heavily favors him.
This is SC's weakest hours right now, while the 2nd night vote is usually SC's strongest.


Though Vince pwned the 1st night vote.
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DEFENCE, DEFENCE
"Alas, history is nothing but a lie agreed upon" - Napoleon Bonaparte.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:49:32 PM | Message Detail
"Breaking 80% is impossible now.."

Not if Kerrigan is strong in the day-time like Diablo was.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
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