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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 192
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:35:47 AM | Message Detail
If Kerrigan is strongest in the night, I'd hate to see what the day vote brings. ^_-
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/
From: Rodri316 | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:37:06 AM | Message Detail
I don't think the poll results will be affected substantially by the night vote this time around.
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Summer 2005 Contest -- Current Score: 20/21
Today's Prediction -- Sarah Kerrigan vs. Vincent Valentine
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:37:11 AM | Message Detail
"The only way for Dante to beat Vincent if we don't count the possble DMC3 boost is if Ryo Hazuki could get around 43% on Kerrigan."

Actually, for Dante to win comfortably Kerrigan would have to be equal to Ryo as pre-DMC3 Dante takes 76.64% on Ryo and should Vincent stay level he takes 77~% on Kerrigan. Not much breathing room there, even if you do call Kerrigan = Ryo.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: Rodri316 | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:37:19 AM | Message Detail
Well, by the day vote.
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Summer 2005 Contest -- Current Score: 20/21
Today's Prediction -- Sarah Kerrigan vs. Vincent Valentine
From: Mumei | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:38:17 AM | Message Detail
Chichi, after this:

(04:08:39) ChichiriMuyo: but I have RE4
(04:09:05) Heroic Mario: Then you know that Ada is the reason that product was made!
(04:09:14) ChichiriMuyo: what?
(04:09:18) ChichiriMuyo: you tihnk I'd play it?
(04:09:20) ChichiriMuyo: gawd no
(04:09:23) Heroic Mario: GASP.
(04:09:26) ChichiriMuyo: It was for my mom
(04:09:30) ChichiriMuyo: she likes RE
(04:09:38) ChichiriMuyo: and yes...
(04:09:40) ChichiriMuyo: she is the ****
(04:09:49) Heroic Mario: Well, that's why it didn't come with it.
(04:09:51) ChichiriMuyo: she's old school zelda pimpin' too


I can't help but find that post amusing.

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>_>
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:38:51 AM | Message Detail
Considering Cloud and Seph, winning the day vote isn't out of the question for Vincent here... though I expect it to end about where it is now.

Of course, I wouldn't be displeased at all to see him end at 80%.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:40:05 AM | Message Detail
When Dante blows the hell out of Terra, it's because Terra's absolute trash, on the level of Ultros. When Vincent blows the hell out of Kerrigan, it's all Vincent.

I love this topic.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:40:14 AM | Message Detail
Also, are you stats guys putting it mainly down to Kerrigan being weak, or Vincent being strong?
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:40:16 AM | Message Detail
Sarah Kerrigan 22.91% 2526
Vincent Valentine 77.09% 8498
TOTAL VOTES 11024

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:41:30 AM | Message Detail
It's late and I worked a full "day" (and by day I mean late-afternoon 'til earlyish morning-like times (post midnight) so I'm not sure what you found amusing. Oh, and my mom is the ****.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: Mumei | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:42:53 AM | Message Detail
I was actually referring to an earlier post. But it's a moot point. And let's add "jackass" to the list, too.

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>_>
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:44:41 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:45:28 AM | Message Detail
******* *******, *******, and *******... seems nearly complete.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: TheCruelAngel | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:45:39 AM | Message Detail
Sarah Kerrigan 22.87% 2568
Vincent Valentine 77.13% 8659
TOTAL VOTES 11227

And now, I'm going to bed.

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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:47:29 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and btw, can you imagine if Kerrigan has a Kefka/CATS-like voting pattern? I can, and it feels so good.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:52:09 AM | Message Detail
I so want Vincent to break 80%. >_>

Also, if Vincent is as strong, or stronger than Aeris, Magus should look out, as some odd SSF could easily put him behind.
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:55:13 AM | Message Detail
Or any sign of Magus being overrated at all. I regret abandoning one of my (if very most) favorite characters when I should have had him going the distance (to Crono).
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: creativename | Posted: 8/9/2005 2:58:31 AM | Message Detail
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/9/2005 5:40:05 AM | Message Detail | #457
When Dante blows the hell out of Terra, it's because Terra's absolute trash, on the level of Ultros. When Vincent blows the hell out of Kerrigan, it's all Vincent.

I love this topic.


If you honestly think Dante will beat Vincent, at this point we can say that you're pretty much just wrong.

Don't set yourself up for that fall. It's inevitable.
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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/9/2005 3:02:46 AM | Message Detail
"Don't set yourself up for that fall. It's inevitable."

Speaking of, how many have Vincent losing before Magus in the Bop? I know in the Guru contest alone 16 have him losing to Kerrigan... so I know it's not going to be pretty (for them).
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: creativename | Posted: 8/9/2005 3:04:26 AM | Message Detail
In this post in the Oracle topic, I discuss how overestimated Kerrigan was:

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/detail.php?board=8&topic=22671735&message=247521600

In gross terms (of Oracle percentage expectations), Kerrigan is probably going to be the 3rd most overestimated entrant ever. Next to Luigi (vs. Squall) and Metroid Prime (vs. Half-Life 2).

In relative terms—which, really, are more relevant—she's 4th, next to Tanner, Ganon (vs. Link), and Adventure (vs. LoZ). Though two of those were expected to be jokes anyway, and Ganon is sort of a special case.

All of this says that which we already know: Kerrigan is a flop of monumental proportions.
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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/9/2005 3:05:45 AM | Message Detail
BTW, if Vincent tops 60% next round expect to see me on the news. You'll know it's me because it'll say "crazy man from Tucson Arizona attempts cross-country streaking".
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/9/2005 3:07:27 AM | Message Detail
Heh heh. How delightfully overconfident. I'd admittedly call Vincent the slight favorite right now if he keeps 77%+, but there's no certainty... Kerrigan's floor value can in theory be very low. Not to mention that Terra actually... *gasp*... might not be the Super Fodder that this topic was making her out to be.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/9/2005 3:09:14 AM | Message Detail
Heh, if I was still paying attention to the Oracle topic, I'd have bumped Vincent well up (not nearly this high, but 70%ish probably... I think I had him at like 60% before). But I've dug myself a hole too deep to get out of anyway.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: creativename | Posted: 8/9/2005 3:09:26 AM | Message Detail
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/9/2005 6:02:46 AM | Message Detail | #469
Speaking of, how many have Vincent losing before Magus in the Bop? I know in the Guru contest alone 16 have him losing to Kerrigan... so I know it's not going to be pretty (for them).


Looks like 70 out of 152 people.

51 have Dante winning the four-pack, 15 have Kerrigan, and 4 have Terra.


From: Lopen | Posted: 8/9/2005 6:07:27 AM | Message Detail | #472
Heh heh. How delightfully overconfident.


You do realize the irony here is that we are not the overconfident ones? :)
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From: creativename | Posted: 8/9/2005 3:11:21 AM | Message Detail
And in the BOP 28 out of 152 had Vincent losing to Kerrigan.
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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/9/2005 3:14:40 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/9/2005 3:15:27 AM | Message Detail
I fail to see how "I'm still not convinced Vincent is the decisive favorite" is more overconfident than "Dante has no chance at all". But whatever... if it pays off, it'll be all the sweeter.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/9/2005 3:18:46 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/9/2005 3:24:05 AM | Message Detail
And, Btw, if Kerrigan = Lara Croft 2k4 (hardly a high-water mark) then Vincent = Squall 2k4. DMC 2 sold much more than DMC 3 and increased Dante by 12.83% from 2k2 to 2k3. For Dante to be raised to squall's 2k4 level from his own 2k4 mark he needs to increase by more than 16% on significantly lower sales and not significantly higher review scores.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: creativename | Posted: 8/9/2005 3:24:35 AM | Message Detail
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/9/2005 6:15:27 AM | Message Detail | #477
I fail to see how "I'm still not convinced Vincent is the decisive favorite" is more overconfident than "Dante has no chance at all".


Because even though you think Vincent is the slight favorite, that still implies more confidence in Dante than is warranted. And that overconfidence in Dante is greater than the overconfidence you say we have in Vincent.

But whatever... if it pays off, it'll be all the sweeter.

There is almost no chance of it paying off, as most of us already know. You're backing yourself into a corner, really.


As much of a chump as I said Kerrigan would be, for Dante to beat Vincent she'd have to be at at something like Ratchet/Sly Cooper/JC Denton level. That is extremely unlikely. It takes a lot (of weakness) to be at that level; not just anybody can do it.
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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/9/2005 3:33:51 AM | Message Detail
Just for curiosity's sake, here's a list of chracters that lose to Ryo Hazuki 2k4 but beat Guybrush Threepwood 2k4

Abe 12.74%
Sly Cooper 12.39%
JC Denton 12.28%
Ulala 11.79%
Gordon Freeman 11.31% (2k2)
Goemon 11.29%
Pikachu 10.99% (2k3, double SFF)
Luca Blight 10.97% (Sp2k5)
Tom Nook 10.82%
Giygas 10.80%
Ratchet 10.78% (2k4)
Akira Yuki 10.76%
Gabe Logan 10.66%

For Dante to beat Vincent without any boost from DMC3 Kerrigan would have to be in that range of characters.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/9/2005 3:44:28 AM | Message Detail
And Vincent's % continues to increase. I fear that the only people moving out of my way for contest dominance are board members. This may be one of the few instances of non-noble nine members (assuming Vincent isn't of that level, hah!) to have over 90% bracket support by the looks of it.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: andaca | Posted: 8/9/2005 3:48:27 AM | Message Detail
*Wakes up, sees poll*

Hm. Me = Owned.

I'm gonna sit over her e in the corner with Danta and cry. I am now not only regreting changing my picks of Vincent over Dante to Kerrigan over Dante, but I'm regreting not putting Vincent over Magus as well.
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Hail to the Queen of Blades.
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/9/2005 3:48:51 AM | Message Detail
The implication that Dante didn't get any boost from Devil May Cry 3 is nearly as ridiculous as Kerrigan < Ryo Hazuki, though. Terra = Ultros is just absurd. Terra = Crash doesn't sound much better to me, but it's something I'll accept.

That puts Dante at 33% (I do think he was screwed by his picture last year, so this increase isn't quite as ridiculous as it looks) on 2k3 Link. Now, for Vincent to feasibly lose to Dante at this point, Kerrigan falls into this range of characters.

52 Laharl 15.28% 14.25% Midgar 9 15 14.79%
53 Lara Croft 14.91% 13.91% Chaos 15 13 14.43%
54 Gordon Freeman 14.37% 13.40% Chaos 10 14 13.91%
55 Terry Bogard 13.79% 12.86% Chaos 16 15 13.35%
56 Luca 13.25% 12.35% Hyrule 11 12 12.82%
57 Earthworm Jim 13.14% 12.25% 20XX 16 15 12.72%
58 CATS 13.05% 12.17% Hyrule 16 13 12.63%

Still a bit low, but I could see Kerrigan possibly losing to most of these characters. Especially with her crappy picture, which I do think has weakened her.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/9/2005 3:52:07 AM | Message Detail
And, at current:

If Kerrigan = Lara Croft then Vincent is directly inbetween Zero and Snake in the 2k4 stats.
If Kerrigan = Laharl then Vincent is 3/4 of a % lower than Magus
If Kerrigan = Pac-Man then Vincent falls directly between Sonic and Magus in the 2k4 stats.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/9/2005 3:54:04 AM | Message Detail
You have DMC3 giving Dante a 20% boost?!?!
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 8/9/2005 4:02:23 AM | Message Detail
Where's the garbage man? There's a lot of trash in this topic that needs collecting.

Kirby, Dante and now Vincent have tripled older characters that were expected to put up a fight. We know that Kirby and Dante are around the strength of Knuckles (It's been proven in 3 contests).

And Vincent records a similar vote aganist an over-hyped character and people are getting carried away. Vincent = Knuckles. Don't get carried away, he's the least popular FF7 character (except Cait Sith) on everywhere but this topic. If Magus can defeat Knuckles, he can defeat Vincent.

Stop getting carried away on this fodders performance and concentrate on Knuckles victory tommorrow.

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Smurf , the cream of Knuckles Fanboyism
Now Playing: Tales of Symphonia (again), Burnout 3 (still), Loz:Minish Cap
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/9/2005 4:04:52 AM | Message Detail
If you think Vincent is weaker than Yuffie you need your head checked.
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 8/9/2005 4:06:52 AM | Message Detail
It's quite easy to play through FF7 without even knowing that Vincent existed. And even if you did take him along, he's a forgetable character who does little to stand out.

Tifa however could be a massive force in this contest. IMO Tifa could score more on Sonic then Megaman. But we'll see..

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Smurf , the cream of Knuckles Fanboyism
Now Playing: Tales of Symphonia (again), Burnout 3 (still), Loz:Minish Cap
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/9/2005 4:09:14 AM | Message Detail
It's the simplest questions in life that you forget to ask yourself... like "who is dumb enough to think Ulala would put up a good fight on Kerrigan".

That's worse than saying DMC3 will have more of an effect on Dante than KH had on any character that appeared in it despite being a speck in comparison.

I'm going to bed. I expect sensible people to be around when I arise.
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Now Link, fill up your hearts
So you can shoot your sword with power
From: jonthomson | Posted: 8/9/2005 4:23:54 AM | Message Detail
Ouch.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: Dark115 | Posted: 8/9/2005 4:41:33 AM | Message Detail
Holy crap Vincent, he's gonna beat Magus if this keeps up and Now I'm worried about Crono
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Currently Playing: Metal Gear Solid 2 (PS2), Final Fantasy VIII (PS1), Mega Man X4 (PS1)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/9/2005 5:04:24 AM | Message Detail
It needs to be said.

CLOSE IT!

Okay, now that that one's out of the way. Ouch. Poor, poor Kerrigan. Saddens me to see her get this kind of treatment. I was never exactly bursting with confidence by having Vincent over Dante, but now I'm not really confident in Magus over Vincent. I just changed four quarters for a dollar here, except that it's a potential four-point loss instead of two.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 020/021 - Matches: 20/21 - Rank: 00137/33793 - Today: Vincent - Tomorrow: Magus
From: transience | Posted: 8/9/2005 5:19:56 AM | Message Detail
wow. reading these comments, you'd think people thought Kerrigan was actually going to be strong. this match was never really debated, sans MM's topic. it was always Vincent/Squall/Magus. throw in a medusa-esque picture and Kerrigan was bound to get destroyed. I'd say Dante's killing of Terra was more impressive/unexpected than this.

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nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/9/2005 6:23:01 AM | Message Detail
he's the least popular FF7 character (except Cait Sith) on everywhere but this topic

I see you know squat about FF7's fanbase.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Saiyan X | Posted: 8/9/2005 6:24:59 AM | Message Detail
Is Kerrigan total fodder then? Should we start worrying about Crono?
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Needless to say, the sexual implications were intentional.
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/9/2005 6:26:23 AM | Message Detail
I wouldn't worry at all about crono until we see what vincent does to dante.
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From: Saiyan X | Posted: 8/9/2005 6:28:01 AM | Message Detail
Vincent needs to get 65% on Dante to start worrying about Crono right?
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Needless to say, the sexual implications were intentional.
From: Saiyan X | Posted: 8/9/2005 6:28:24 AM | Message Detail
If that's the case, perhaps I feel a bit better about my bracket...
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Needless to say, the sexual implications were intentional.
From: assman20 | Posted: 8/9/2005 6:28:36 AM | Message Detail
VV > joo
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