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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 189
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/7/2005 11:15:30 AM | Message Detail
I thought Vercetti would be the bracket-favorite by a small margin, though I'm not surprised Kefka took it...however, it's flat-out amazing how big of a favorite he was (to me, anyways).

We've joked around and said that Frog/Donkey Kong would be the closest match one could have, what with their close matches and all...but I've begun to think Vercetti/Frog could be an alright match, especially if Frog really was as over-rated as Sephiroth/Liquid, MC/CATS, and even Riku/Frog may suggest. Would anybody actually take Vercetti over Frog though (let's give Vercetti his Hawaii shirt back for this case)?
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/7/2005 11:17:39 AM | Message Detail
Chrono Trigger/Final Fantasy fan-overlap simply HAS to be bigger than Chrono Trigger/Suikoden 2 fan-overlap. With that said, Luca being SFF'd by Magus isn't out of the question, per say, but I also think that SFF is minimal in that match if it was there.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: ExThaNemesis | Posted: 8/7/2005 11:17:45 AM | Message Detail
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=22716146

My theory on Georgy boy.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/7/2005 11:18:19 AM | Message Detail
I made an updater spreadsheet, where if you paste cn's updater table on one sheet, it generates the 15 minute updates in the classic format in the second sheet. I sent it to Mumei, since he gave me the idea to do it, but if anyone else wants it (preferably to host it) I'll send it out.
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Eh, I'm too lazy to keep up with a contest sig.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/7/2005 11:30:14 AM | Message Detail
Here's a lil' fun: I decided to check out where Zidane would rank if he finished at 23.79% on Crono (which is what Squall got on Cloud) and if he was SFF'd the same amount by Crono as Squall was by Cloud (SFF'd Squall would get 38.74% against not-SFF'd/2k3 Squall). The result has Zidane at 22.83% on Link 2k4, just above KOS-MOS...now, also keep in mind that Squall had more reason to be SFF'd than Zidane does, but also keep in mind that Crono might have increased again since last year (which, obviously, I used Crono 2k4).

So I'm gonna ask: Zidane or KOS-MOS, who wins?
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/7/2005 11:35:18 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, I'd rather see 15 minute updates again. It adds more drama to each match, plus I miss the update topics.

From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/7/2005 9:31:25 AM | Message Detail | #489
What the hell is with this vote stuffer guy? He makes the ridiculous claim of causing practically every major upset in contest history and you guys go off and believe him? Judging by his sloppy style of vote stuffing and how he even talked about it at the board I have a hard time believing he's done it before on a large scale like this. Even if he did some of you are overreacting way too much. We should change te xstats over this? What.the.hell? A few thousand votes aren't going to make any character look exceptionally stronger then they really are in the xstats. It's not like the xstats are 100% cannon, and small changes like that wouldn't make too huge of a difference in them. I don't see why anyone should believe this guy. If he bothered cheating in this, what would be stopping him from lying about previous acts to boost his ego?


You know, I was pretty upset about all of that last night, but that makes perfect sense. What bothers me are two things. One, Romero is likely not the only guy who uses proxies, and two, CJayC acted very defeated when discussing those votes from China; almost as if he couldn't prove that they were fake. That is not good.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/7/2005 11:41:13 AM | Message Detail
One, Romero is likely not the only guy who uses proxies, and two, CJayC acted very defeated when discussing those votes from China; almost as if he couldn't prove that they were fake. That is not good.

>>

<<

It's good for Kerrigan.

*runs*
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"All pretty girls are a trap, a pretty trap, and men expect them to be."
MasterMage119
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/7/2005 11:43:30 AM | Message Detail
I liked it best with the instant-updates, myself...so I naturally like five-minute updates more than the fifteen-minute ones. Stamp me spoiled, but I think it's just as intense as it is with these pauses...but I prefer the "live" feel. I'd rather watch a basketball game live than just catch up on updates of it every five-fifteen minutes, afterall.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/7/2005 11:44:41 AM | Message Detail
It's good for Kerrigan.

I've been waitin' to hear you make a Kerrigan reference to that since CJay said that, heh. =P
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Kaxon | Posted: 8/7/2005 11:50:41 AM | Message Detail
anyone who tries to claim that Zidane is getting hit by any significant amount of SFF has to admit that Luca Blight got hit by nearly the same amount of SFF against Magus.

Not really. First of all, there has to be a larger fanbase overlap between CT and FF IX, just because FF IX sold so many more copies than Suikoden II.

Second, even if you assume exactly the same amount of fanbase overlap, that doesn't tell you anything at all about which character fans of both prefer. SFF will only skew the results if fans of both characters consistenly prefer one over the other - it's quite possible that's the case with Crono/Zidane but not with Magus/Luca.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Current Score: 18/19 | Today: Crono over Zidane
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/7/2005 11:52:49 AM | Message Detail
anyone who tries to claim that Zidane is getting hit by any significant amount of SFF has to admit that Luca Blight got hit by nearly the same amount of SFF against Magus. Zidane has about as much in common with Crono as Luca does with Magus - basically just that they are both from RPGs and that Zidane and Crono were their respective game's heroes and Luca and Magus were their games respective villains.

accept it - main characters can be weaker than supporting characters.


I think Harrich beat me to responding to this.. Nowhere did I say that Zidane definitely WAS getting SFF'd. My post was directed towards those that say that Zidane shouldn't suffer from SFF during this match. There's no possible way for someone to know that. So everything is speculation... I simply said that I wouldn't speculate on it until we saw Zidane in action against someone non-Square. I never said that Zidane was at Squall's level or anything, nor did I say he should be stronger than Vivi. I was simply talking about the possibility of him being SFF'd.

And you act like there's no such thing as a Square fan. There were many people, including myself who were huge fans of anything Square released during the PS1 days. If you're saying that Luca has just as much in common with Magus as Zidane does to Crono, in terms of popularity, then you're insane.

And again, for the record, I'm not arguing for Zidane SFF. I'm just commenting on the people that think there's no possibly way there could be SFF. We thought the same thing for Kefka and Sora. There's no way we will know until Zidane gets another match.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/7/2005 11:54:43 AM | Message Detail
I don't think that Crono is SFFing Zidane. If Squall can SFF Geno, Squall will probably beat Magus as it will help prove that Old Square can't really SFF New Square even when Old Square is stronger. The reverse likely holds true, for whatever reason. Add in possible hero:villain SFF, and Magus might be done for. Oh wellz.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/7/2005 11:55:46 AM | Message Detail
Squall won't SFF Geno.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 17/19 points
Current Match Prediction: Crono vs. Zidane
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:00:17 PM | Message Detail
If anything, Squall himself is prone to being SFF'ed by stronger Square chars.

Cloud got much more SFF benefit from Squall than he did from Auron, despite Auron being a supporting char.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:00:41 PM | Message Detail
Crono is doing right about what I expected him to for today. Pretty good.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:00:50 PM | Message Detail
SFF will only skew the results if fans of both characters consistenly prefer one over the other

EXACTLY! A lot of people still don't understand the basic concept of SFF. It's not whether you're under the same company, or the same genre, or anything like that. The meat and potatoes of it is that fans of both consistently prefer one over the other.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:01:09 PM | Message Detail
If Squall SFF's Geno, it'll both be minimal and hard to decide how much; I don't think there'd be all that much, myself. Squall rSFF'ing Magus is still plenty possible though, though I figure Magus is still gonna take it with about 52%.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:01:17 PM | Message Detail
We've never seen old Square vs New Square except for two matches: FFVII/CT, where CT probably didn't get hit by any SFF, and Frog/Riku, where it's apparent that Frog/MC/LS are nowhere near where Frog's match on Snake would indicate. I don't see why old Square is suddenly at a disadvantage against new Square. As far as this supposed main character SFF, uh, Aeris/Sora.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:02:55 PM | Message Detail
I think CT was SFFd hardcore.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:03:53 PM | Message Detail
You'd pick CT over OoT?
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:04:25 PM | Message Detail
You'd pick LttP over OoT?
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:04:32 PM | Message Detail
I don't know him, but I'd never, ever do that in a thousand years.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 018/019 - Matches: 18/19 - Rank: 00149/33793 - Today: Crono - Tomorrow: Dante*
*w/ account on the line
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:05:16 PM | Message Detail
I wouldn't say Squall is prone to being SFF'd by stronger characters. He was up against ****ing Cloud! The character he is eternally compared to. Do you not see who popular FF7 is? Don't you think a lot of the people who liked FF7 went and bought FF8 as well? Cloud was the worst possible character Squall could have ever faced.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:06:42 PM | Message Detail
*how <_<;
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: The Doppleganger | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:07:16 PM | Message Detail
Why isn't Crono breaking 80? I thought he was supposedely ok with the day vote and was gonna SFF rape Zidane, not a pull a Mario/Servbot on him >_>
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:09:17 PM | Message Detail
Zidane may not be strong, but he's still a Playstation Final Fantasy lead. It's not like Crono is up against Manny Calavera.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:11:07 PM | Message Detail
Why isn't Crono breaking 80? I thought he was supposedely ok with the day vote and was gonna SFF rape Zidane, not a pull a Mario/Servbot on him >_>

Zidane's being compared to Servbot? Good lord! There ARE people that still do LIKE FFIX. v_v
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:13:02 PM | Message Detail
If anything I'm disappointed. I figured Zidane would increase all through the day. Not because he's "winning the day vote" exactly, just because it's hard to keep a character with any reason to have a fanbase squashed like that.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: The Doppleganger | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:16:55 PM | Message Detail
I suppose the Servbot comparison was kinda rash <_<
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:20:31 PM | Message Detail
Crono 76.01% 41815
Zidane 23.99% 13196
TOTAL VOTES 55011

Down goes Zidane some more.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:23:20 PM | Message Detail
So many misconceptions! Crono isn't that great with the day vote. CT as a whole is bad with the day vote, and while we've seen little of it besides Kefka (since I already mentioned CT and Cecil was unremarkable) it's fairly clear that all pre-FF7 square is just plain weak with the day vote. Don't count on anything square from the SNES era gaining during the day, it's not meant to be.
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"Love forever, love is free. Let’s turn forever you and me." - Gorillaz "Feel Good INC"
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:27:11 PM | Message Detail
But Crono is gaining with the day vote. Zidane must really suck.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 018/019 - Matches: 18/19 - Rank: 00149/33793 - Today: Crono - Tomorrow: Dante*
*w/ account on the line
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:29:07 PM | Message Detail
Oh well, turns out that Zidane really is quite weak. Well, at least he got in once. I would've liked a better draw though.

I'm interested to see what picture Terra gets...
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:30:37 PM | Message Detail
I don't remember what Vivi did with it, but we know Kuja sucked with the day-vote too. Granted, Master Hand was as much of a beast with the day-vote as a character of their strengths could be, but Kuja was still horrible with it.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:30:57 PM | Message Detail
He's also an overwhelming force, I imagine that all of our elite eight (you knwo who they are, and they don't include Snake these days) win the day vote to some degree, except against Knux or eachother. However it was said that there were expectations for Crono to hit 80... and he's just not that good in the day. He's the best day vote getting square character out of the pre ff-7 days, as well, so I'd be willing to bet any other CT character would be losing it to Zidane right now (assuming they had it in them to win at all).
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"Love forever, love is free. Let’s turn forever you and me." - Gorillaz "Feel Good INC"
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:32:00 PM | Message Detail
"Oh well, turns out that Zidane really is quite weak."

That's what we said about Squall in 2k2 and he didn't have the luxury of being put up against a Square character!
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"Love forever, love is free. Let’s turn forever you and me." - Gorillaz "Feel Good INC"
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:33:15 PM | Message Detail
http://www.ffinfinite.com/ff6/terra4.jpg

She needs that picture. It's her best non-sprite "official" picture out there.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:36:08 PM | Message Detail
Considering Kefka's clown pic this round that's a possible shot to use, assuming ceej is willing to clean it up (since he isn't having backgrounds this round).
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Have you ever seen a Turtle get down?
From: chaos knight | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:36:58 PM | Message Detail
So...wait. Does this mean that Zidane vs. Kefka would actually be close?
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[Player] A bunch of JP just trained me!
[GM] Well you're still here, so they obviously didn't do it right.
LBSJ
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:38:02 PM | Message Detail
Slow, you put your account on the line for tomorrow? Hope you've got a backup account, just so you can rub it in your opponent's face with two accounts when you win! :p
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Have you ever seen a Turtle get down?
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:40:23 PM | Message Detail
Slow bet his account?

I hope he's on Dante's side...

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:43:33 PM | Message Detail
Well, Squall was weaker than Knuckles in 2002, effectively making him just a middle of the road character. Thankfully, KH was around to boost him way up there.

I still don't think there's much SFF to speak of here, at least not enough that would bring Zidane up to a decent competitive level.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:54:06 PM | Message Detail
He at least beats Kefka, and that makes him only a couple % shy of Vivi 2k4
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Have you ever seen a Turtle get down?
From: Kaxon | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:54:06 PM | Message Detail
I hate negative-sum games. It'll be a shame to see either Slow or SecondBest lose their account.

That said, go Terra!
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Current Score: 18/19 | Today: Crono over Zidane
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:55:34 PM | Message Detail
He at least beats Kefka, and that makes him only a couple % shy of Vivi 2k4

That assumes Kefka wasn't SFF'd in 2003, which would make Crono stronger than 2003 Link.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:56:12 PM | Message Detail
"It'll be a shame to see either SecondBest lose their account."

It may be... I don't know SecondBest, but I do know that if you make a bet with Slow over a contest match you need to expect to lose. I've never seen Slow make a bet when he wasn't 100% sure he was winning, and obviously I've never seen him lose a bet with stakes as high as these.
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Have you ever seen a Turtle get down?
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:56:22 PM | Message Detail
Actually, it's a zero-sum game. It would be negative-sum if the loser had to suicide/close or something like that instead of giving it to the winner.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:57:44 PM | Message Detail
It also assumes SFF is proportional and indiscriminate, which I don't believe. Some characters are more prone to SFF than others, or when they're facing a particular character (Cloud is the worst possible matchup Squall could receive, for example. Sephiroth wouldn't get nearly as much SFF).

Kefka had a lot more reason to get SFF'd by Crono than Zidane does.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:00:10 PM | Message Detail
Let's face it, people said there was no reason for Kefka to be SFF'd by Crono two years ago and I was one of the few that believed he was... guess who was SFF'd? Just because you don't think there's enough overlap doesn't mean there isn't, and I would not at all be surprised to see Zidane being SFF'd to an equal degree of what Kefka faced. Really, I can't say for sure that you were here then in 2k3 but if you were you'd have enough history to go by to realize that you can't make assumptions on this until/unless Zidane faces someone else. Period.
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Have you ever seen a Turtle get down?
From: Undeniable | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:01:41 PM | Message Detail
I just realised something, Tommy was the first 14th Seed (If you add up all the divisions and such) to win since GFNW.
~~~
Deejay is as serious as they come. Beneath his sexy, stereotypical exterior beats the heart of a true angry black man. - Titan44
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