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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 188
From: Link Jr | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:56:50 AM | Message Detail
Kefka



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Commander of The Link Army
Blades will bleed... Shields will shatter... and Link shall WIN... AGAIN!
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:00:31 AM | Message Detail
So, who's more likely to get the day vote here? Crono isn't that well known with the day vote, but remembering Kuja/MH, FF9 doesn't seem to do that good either...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Applekidjosh | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:01:52 AM | Message Detail
Is it common for this many brackets on the top 50 to have crazy contest champs? We still have a Kerrigan, a Gordon Freeman, Squall, Sonic, Master Chief x4!!, and a Dante. And there are less than 150 perfects left. Seems odd, I guess.
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Currently sitting pretty at #4 on the leaderboard
From: The Doppleganger | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:02:05 AM | Message Detail
Crono will get the day vote. I have faith he'll break 80 on Zidane by then.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.
From: The Doppleganger | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:02:53 AM | Message Detail
And we probably got more casual bracket makers and favorite bracket makers this year, I'll wager.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.
From: Crono801 | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:03:58 AM | Message Detail
I'd take Zidane.

And Zidane's looking to get raped by the day vote.
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Welcome to Moonside. Wecomel to Soonmide. Moonwel ot cosidme
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:16:51 AM | Message Detail
Wonder if Zidane will avoid a tripling at this rate...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:18:36 AM | Message Detail
Chrono Trigger is very weak with the day vote in general. Zidane can gain. He may not avoid the tripling, but a quadrupling looks out of the question at this point.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: whatev | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:28:53 AM | Message Detail
I agree with whoever said that the top 50's picks for champ are really quite weirdly scattergun. Don't know if such diversity has been seen before.

Mario - 22
Crono - 8
Master Chief - 4
Samus - 3
Ganondorf - 2
Dante - 2
Zelda - 2
Zero - 1
Sarah Kerrigan - 1
Magus - 1
Mega Man - 1
Squall Leonhart - 1
Sonic the Hedgehog - 1
Gordon Freeman - 1
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The world is toroidal
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:29:38 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:30:16 AM | Message Detail
When you think about the fact that most of the close matches were decided by one person, it really puts into question how valid our stats are. FFT beats MGS without Romero. Link beats Cloud in 2003 without Romero. Crono beats Mario twice without Romero. Mario beats Crono in 2004 without Romero.

And on a related note, assuming Romero isn't lying, Mario is vastly underestimated by the 2004 stats and will win this entire contest.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:30:53 AM | Message Detail
Chichiri, this isn't exactly a win to be happy about.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: whatev | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:31:50 AM | Message Detail
I thought he said that Crono would have won in 2k4 anyway. The margin was probably too big for it to have been totally influenced by him.
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The world is toroidal
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:32:29 AM | Message Detail
And on a related note, assuming Romero isn't lying, Mario is vastly underestimated by the 2004 stats and will win this entire contest.

Omg, I would be in tears, I have him winning out of biasm. >_>;;
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Summer Contest 2k5 - Points: 17/18
Kefka Vs. Tommy Vercetti - Bracket: Tommy V. - Vote: Tommy V.
From: Nikki777 | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:32:44 AM | Message Detail
Will you shut up abour Romero?

He's a poser, he's done nothing. He's another Gav style troll. He takes credit for things he hasn't nor can't do. Gawd, you get sucked in so easily by any random troll.

Freak results are caused by spamming. Nobody could cast 200 votes for Tommy in a 5 minute period, get a grip.

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Nikki
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:32:50 AM | Message Detail
Jill/Ryu H, Frog/Liquid, Frog/Chief, Donkey Kong/Duck Hunt, Ct/LTTP, all three Mario/Cronos......

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:33:22 AM | Message Detail
He also said that Cloud would have won in 2k3 without him, anyway. It would just have been closer, and Link would just have been much higher in the stats.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:33:24 AM | Message Detail
Actually, Gavi is a genius.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:34:07 AM | Message Detail
Romero's that M4 guy isen't he? He's a big fanboy of FFVII and Halo.
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:34:37 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, Ulti you seem to breaking down into pieces on the scene...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:35:46 AM | Message Detail
Eh, it's just disappointing that one guy has possibly been the sole deciding factor in every close match.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Nikki777 | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:35:50 AM | Message Detail
A genius?

I don't consider some 17 year old kid who bull***** about getting "cease + desist" notices, a "genius".

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Nikki
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:37:00 AM | Message Detail
If we happen to have another contest, I am so gonna consider who would get vote rallied..
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Summer Contest 2k5 - Points: 17/18
Crono Vs. Zidane - Bracket: Crono - Vote: Crono
From: R3d_XII | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:39:22 AM | Message Detail
Shin Steve is right! His wang is conspicuously, small.

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I, Nanaki have returned.
From: Crono801 | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:39:35 AM | Message Detail
I just tried to refresh the x-stats page.

I've been looking at poll results far, far too much in the past 24 hours.
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Welcome to Moonside. Wecomel to Soonmide. Moonwel ot cosidme
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:40:32 AM | Message Detail
XD @ Crono.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:40:39 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and can someone link me to the ceej topic, I gotta see it myself.
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"Love forever, love is free. Let’s turn forever you and me." - Gorillaz "Feel Good INC"
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:42:03 AM | Message Detail
There were two stickies. Ceej deleted them both.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:42:40 AM | Message Detail
Vote adjustment due to stuffing.
From: CJayC | Posted: 8/7/2005 12:49:27 AM | Message Detail | #001
Kefka has lost 1800 votes due to flagrant vote stuffing. The clear majority of the stuffed votes appear to have come from user "George Romero" (who even hinted that he was doing it in his posts here, and has since been banned, although it appears he had no valid entry in the contest). While there are probably many more than 1800 votes stuffed exclusively in favor of Kefka, that's approximately how many I can confirm were done by this group, and it's more than enough to set the balance right.

While there is, of course "vote stuffing" for both characters, this is a clear case where a few people have gone through extraordinary lengths to alter the vote, spending hour after hour stuffing votes. There was no vote stuffing to this order of magnitude for Tommy, so the vote totals have been adjusted accordingly, and new measures are being put in place to prevent this from happening again.

As a reminder, this is covered explicitly in the rules, and again, I have absolutely no stake in whoever actually wins in each day's bracket (not counting my own entry for fun, which, of course, I picked Kefka for).



A few extra notes on the adjustment.
From: CJayC | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:13:12 AM | Message Detail | #001
In case you're wondering how bad the cheating was for Kefka, here's a sample:

http://img205.imageshack.us/my.php?image=votes4fz.png

The yellow is Kefka votes, the blue is Tommy. The number (vertical) is how many votes out of each group of 1000 (horizontal) came from a IP range from a particular ISP. Based on the user logs, this was clearly perpetrated by a single person or at most a small group of people, and as such, cannot be allowed.

As I mentioned in the first post, this situation is explicitly covered by the rules: "we reserve the right intervene in the daily tally when there is a clear evidence of mass voting fraud". If that chart isn't clear evidence, well, then nothing's going to convince you. If you want to get angry at anyone, get angry at the people who caused it.


~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:44:42 AM | Message Detail
"Chichiri, this isn't exactly a win to be happy about."

Better than cheating for it. I know Kefka is treated like a god around here by many people, but to me he's not that high on my priority list. Hell, this match gave me enough time to think about it and Kefka is barely ahead of Vercetti in a favorites list. I actually did like VC and Vercetti, even if I hate some of the things that GTA stands for (mysogny, wanton violence). Kefka's not utter scum (I'm not HM, after all), but I'm damn well convinced he's ranked as highly as he should be. So there, I didn't cheat and I got the point I deserved, and all I have to do is listen to countless people cry about how they were robbed for a day or two to get it.
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"Love forever, love is free. Let’s turn forever you and me." - Gorillaz "Feel Good INC"
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:45:44 AM | Message Detail
I say this with 100% seriousness. I would rather see only registered users vote and see 50000 votes per match than to ever see this happen again. At least the former would be the honest opinion of GameFAQs, which is what this contest was originally about in the first place. If people want to vote, make them get an account first.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Tarrot | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:50:14 AM | Message Detail
If Romero doesn't cast the 1800 votes lost, and if there wasn't that massive influx of votes from Asia at the very end for whatever reason, Kefka still wins I would venture. If Kefka's known to be down earlier, there would be more vote rallying, evening them up. Plus Kefka still loses due to the pic factor. Seriously, no one can deny that being portrayed as a joker with white makeup helps you in those who vote based on picture.
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:50:19 AM | Message Detail
Hmm..that could change some levels around pretty easily as most of our votes come from non-registered users.
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Summer Contest 2k5 - Points: 17/18
Crono Vs. Zidane - Bracket: Crono - Vote: Crono
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:51:49 AM | Message Detail
I don't mind the way things are. Ceej is on the look out all the time, and I odn't believe this guy did everything he said he did. There's no way I could have called cheating with a straight face at any point in this match, even if I told NewLib about 3-4 on Aim that it didn't feel right what Kefka was doing. This would have gone unnoticed by us but ceej picked up on it easy enough. The guy is a liar, plain and simple, and I doubt there's any need ot call into question the validity of past results.
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"Love forever, love is free. Let’s turn forever you and me." - Gorillaz "Feel Good INC"
From: Crono801 | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:52:02 AM | Message Detail
Yeah. It'd make the next contest more interesting, I'd wager.
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Welcome to Moonside. Wecomel to Soonmide. Moonwel ot cosidme
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:53:28 AM | Message Detail
I don't buy the guy either. I mean, he knows how serious the stats people are about this, he got all of them on their toes, and is now just playing along with it and messing with everyone's heads.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/7/2005 1:55:50 AM | Message Detail
And, cn was speaking very sensibly when he posted this:

"A couple thousand votes doesn't matter too much for the x-stats, given their margin of error. I don't think anyone would worry about an adjustment here."

Even if soem of those matches were off by a slight bit it's not like we take them literally anyway. Yes, it's a shame that a few times the more deserving character might lose, but that's too far in the past to fix. Everything else, not a problem.

Then again, the guy's a liar.
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"Love forever, love is free. Let’s turn forever you and me." - Gorillaz "Feel Good INC"
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/7/2005 2:01:39 AM | Message Detail
Well, anyway, Romero aside, Zidane appears to be pushing for 23% as of late. I wonder if he'll be able to take the day vote and avoid that tripling...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Crono801 | Posted: 8/7/2005 2:03:32 AM | Message Detail
Crono's been gaining roughly 120 votes per update. I expect that to be much worse when morning hits.
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Welcome to Moonside. Wecomel to Soonmide. Moonwel ot cosidme
From: Kaxon | Posted: 8/7/2005 2:03:55 AM | Message Detail
When you think about the fact that most of the close matches were decided by one person, it really puts into question how valid our stats are. FFT beats MGS without Romero. Link beats Cloud in 2003 without Romero. Crono beats Mario twice without Romero. Mario beats Crono in 2004 without Romero.

There's no way the guy can take credit for all that. He got caught when he stuffed 1800 votes for Kefka. There's just no way in hell he got away with stuffing 5000 votes to change the outcome of Link/Cloud, or 6000 in Crono/Mario 3. Most likely he just said those things to make himself seem cool.

Plus, don't forget that CJayC has looked at voting patterns by IP group before, like in SC/WW. I feel pretty confident he would have caught this guy before if he had cheated on the same scale he did today.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Current Score: 18/19 | Today: Crono over Zidane
From: transience | Posted: 8/7/2005 2:04:16 AM | Message Detail
I don't know why you guys are up in arms about this cheating thing.

1.) there's the possibility of cheating happening in every match, especially the close ones. it's not like ol' Georgie is the only one. we've known this for years, haven't we?

2.) if I was caught doing such a thing, I'd claim that I fixed matches as well, including ones I didn't. hell, if I'm screwed, I might as well take everyone down with me.

it's a popularity contest, and things like this happen in popularity contests. it's not that big of a deal and we'll forget about it soon enough. I wouldn't call every close match into question just because one person was caught - otherwise, we'd be calling every future match into question as well.

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nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.
From: Crono801 | Posted: 8/7/2005 2:06:19 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and since Leonhart doesn't appear to be around:

At 02:00...

Crono/Zidane - 9290

Kefka/Vercetti - 8535
Ryu/Rikku - 8984
Ganondorf/Yuna - 9070
Ness/CJ - 8330

Oh wow. On pace for some good totals.
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Welcome to Moonside. Wecomel to Soonmide. Moonwel ot cosidme
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/7/2005 2:07:20 AM | Message Detail
Better than Ganon/Yuna at this rate? ...DAMN!!!
GO! CRONO!!!!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 8/7/2005 2:07:39 AM | Message Detail
When you think about the fact that most of the close matches were decided by one person, it really puts into question how valid our stats are. FFT beats MGS without Romero. Link beats Cloud in 2003 without Romero. Crono beats Mario twice without Romero. Mario beats Crono in 2004 without Romero.

I doubt Romero had any major influence in many of these matches.

- FFT > MGS is the most likely one, but he must have had a reason for saying MGS would have won without him.

- Link lost to Cloud in 2003 by 5000 votes. Kefka was found out with around 1800 votes: someone would have noticed something in Link Vs. Cloud if there were more than 6000 cheat votes for Cloud.

- Crono would not have won in 2002, because he himself would have lost by over 2500 votes were all his cheat votes deleted, and all Mario's votes intact. Nobody noticed massive cheating on Mario, which would probably mean that his stuffing would be nowhere near as large as Kefka's 1800.

- 2003 is also questionable, because in the X-Stats Mario seemed to have remained pretty constant, which means we must have gotten something about him pegged right. He would not have been theo nly person cheating, and I think that it was not his fault and his fault alone that Mario won, but a number of factors. Either way, neither character would have won by more than 300, regardless of Mr. Romero's involvement.

- He himself admitted that Crono would have won without his help in 2004.

It only would effect us in close matches which we have appeared to have judged wrongly in the x-stats. People like Frog, Liquid and Magus not performing like they're supposed to can be attributed to getting no cheat votes in unimportant matches.

However, I think that normally, whatever cheat votes he made were negligible, because it took a fairly small total of 1800 votes to get him noticed now.

I think you're giving him far too much credit here, and you're worrying yourself silly over nothing.

There, there Ulti. Everything'll be alright. :)
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness
From: teesa | Posted: 8/7/2005 2:07:43 AM | Message Detail
Romero did 1800+ votes because he wanted to get caught and screw things up for those who picked Kefka.
I am sad the way things were ultimately handled, especially since this is more than a poll--it is a contest with prizes.
I would rather registered users be the only ones to vote.
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VOTE FOR TERRA, SUMMER 2005 CONTEST!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/7/2005 2:08:33 AM | Message Detail
This is beautiful. I love seeing Crono smash anyone like this. I think it's unfair to Zidane and that we won't have a damn clue where he actually stands, but I do love seeign Crono murder people.
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"Love forever, love is free. Let’s turn forever you and me." - Gorillaz "Feel Good INC"
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 8/7/2005 2:11:21 AM | Message Detail
Zidane isn't doing too badly, actually. Better than Kefka, at any rate.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/7/2005 2:11:45 AM | Message Detail
I like seeing Crono murder in this too. I'd more like it if he were quadrupling though, if only to reassure my having Crono as champ...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Crono801 | Posted: 8/7/2005 2:15:33 AM | Message Detail
How's this for rearranging the bracket?:

Swap Pac-Man and Zidane.
Swap Geno and Wesker.
Swap Alucard and Laharl.
Swap Laharl and Knuckles.

Then, we get Knuckles/Kratos instead of wasting him on Magus, Laharl, Pac-Man, and Wesker all stay fodder, Geno might have a shot at Lloyd, and we get the wonderful fourpack that is Yoshi/Alucard/Ocelot/Zidane.

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Welcome to Moonside. Wecomel to Soonmide. Moonwel ot cosidme
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 8/7/2005 2:16:27 AM | Message Detail
Can someone give me a quick run though of the events of yesterday as I was sleeping. >_<

It's hard to find things under all the "OMG CJAYC!!!11".
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
http://www.geocities.com/lettucekefka/
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