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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 183
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:04:10 AM | Message Detail
He's strugling to get up to 600 vote lead, and its been an hour...this one will be a nailbiter. I wish it'd be like CT/LttP, but I don't think Kefka can manage what CT did in that one...Boy that match was fun. Have I said how much I miss that contest?
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:04:22 AM | Message Detail
Kefka 55.07% 3082
Tommy Vercetti 44.93% 2515
TOTAL VOTES 5597


At least something good comes out of this (for me) - if Vercetti does not comeback I will very much enjoy the fanfictions of him being burnt to a crisp.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:04:56 AM | Message Detail
BOP is here:

http://www.freewebs.com/slowflake/sc2k5.xls
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:04:58 AM | Message Detail
Tenpenny lost to Liquid Snake who went on to vastly underperform for an unknown reason against Sephiroth.

CJ lost to Ness who is going to get crushed by SFF against Mario.

Vercetti lost to Kefka who is going to get crushed by SFF against Crono.

Definitly not a good year for GTA fans.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:05:31 AM | Message Detail
Well the 600 vote lead is deceiving. He gained 300 of it in the first 15 minutes. Looks like it might take him an hour to get the next 300.
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: cyko | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:05:44 AM | Message Detail

Definitly not a good year for GTA fans.


what GTA fans? >_>

---
Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer
is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!
From: The Doppleganger | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:06:14 AM | Message Detail
I'll be blasting "Dancing Mad" if Kefka wins <_< I may despise losing my bracket points, but I'll give it up to him and Ness.
---
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:06:39 AM | Message Detail
What was the biggest vote turn around that a character has had against Kefka?
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:06:40 AM | Message Detail
I think you guys are missing his point.

It's essentially the same thing that I brought up a year ago, but I was dismissed as a mere troll.

Or maybe I really am a troll, since all I do is give people a hard time for using cliches. :(
---
.nS) quote of the week:
"I have come to the conclusion that from now on your tournament should be referred to as TSCBWGFAQSTOC for short." - Snowster
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:06:46 AM | Message Detail
I like how everyone is calling this match over.

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"It takes but a man to gaze into his own twilight and approach it with fear. It takes but a legend to approach it with open arms." - The Unheard Z
From: Crono801 | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:06:47 AM | Message Detail
Do you seriously believe Kefka is done, TRE, or are you hypothesizing?
---
Welcome to Moonside. Wecomel to Soonmide. Moonwel ot cosidme
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:07:10 AM | Message Detail
Well, not everyone... >,>

---
"It takes but a man to gaze into his own twilight and approach it with fear. It takes but a legend to approach it with open arms." - The Unheard Z
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:07:19 AM | Message Detail
Everyone should have expected this. If Kefka had the first few hours on Knuckles, he would certainly have it on Tommy. Tommy should be able to come back, sadly, unless Kefka has a strong next few hours.

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 18/18 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: BigCow | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:07:21 AM | Message Detail
To add on to BigCow's post, voting patterns are -- in general -- not at all transitive. That some of the matches here seem to line up is actually quite curious to me, and it is certainly something worth investigating. I really need to talk about it with some of my peers and get their opinion on it.

Precisely. The reason it fits fairly well in many cases is that the fans aren't as wide spread in their voting patterns as they could be I'd suspect. You do have a lot of people who clearly prefer Nintendo or Square characters, or particular ones. The manner in which people vote may be easier to generalize because "fanboys" fit into categories more easily than your average voters.

And there are probably a lot fewer dimensions along which people compare characters than political candidates or issues. It seems like a less complex case of voting in some ways, and it would be interesting to look into, considering that you have a lot of data to work with.
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The Insane A-Team: Trivia XII team
Gamefaqs Fanfic Project Archive: http://www.rose-hulman.edu/~newheims/ffproj.htm
From: Eggplant Lord | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:07:46 AM | Message Detail
There goes 600...

===
Oh. My. God.
Did the PS2's light just change color...?!
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:08:23 AM | Message Detail
I thought he had Knuckles for only an hour. o-O
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Summer Contest 2k5 - Points: 17/18
Kefka Vs. Tommy Vercetti - Bracket: Tommy V. - Vote: Tommy V.
From: BigCow | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:08:49 AM | Message Detail
Incidentally, LordofDabu, what do you study? I'm a math/computer science guy myself. The nice thing about studying all that stuff is that you realize that most any problem can be reduced mathematically or statistically somehow, and probably already has by someone who's spent enough time on it.
---
The Insane A-Team: Trivia XII team
Gamefaqs Fanfic Project Archive: http://www.rose-hulman.edu/~newheims/ffproj.htm
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:09:21 AM | Message Detail
Now he'll barely hold 600 for a while before slowly climbing to 700 in the next 45 minutes. Then stall and climb, stall and climb all yonder way til the day vote...
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:09:46 AM | Message Detail
Kefka 55% 3287
Tommy Vercetti 45% 2689
TOTAL VOTES 5976

---
Fennsiv is a dirty slut who deserves to burn in hell.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:10:14 AM | Message Detail
Kefka 54.99% 3289
Tommy Vercetti 45.01% 2692
TOTAL VOTES 5981

You took ****ing long enough, Tommy.
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:10:24 AM | Message Detail
Kefka 54.99% 3291
Tommy Vercetti 45.01% 2694
TOTAL VOTES 5985

That's enough for me tonight. I'm off to bed.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Crono801 | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:10:25 AM | Message Detail
Kefka 55% 3303
Tommy Vercetti 45% 2703
TOTAL VOTES 6006
---
Welcome to Moonside. Wecomel to Soonmide. Moonwel ot cosidme
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:10:46 AM | Message Detail
Kefka 54.97% 3299
Tommy Vercetti 45.03% 2702
TOTAL VOTES 6001


Stall. Stall. Stall.
From: George Romero | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:11:00 AM | Message Detail
Kefka probably won't break 700...
---
""Do you really think you can 'blow the piss out of them'? All of them?"
*is M410123*
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:12:21 AM | Message Detail
I don't see what the big deal about this match is so far. We all knew that the match would be close right? And we know that Kefka has taken early leads in matches he proceeded to get blown out in (Diablo, Knuckles), right? So you should expect him to have a larger lead than he did in those matches if it is a much closer match...
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:12:44 AM | Message Detail
I'll be entering my third year of undergraduate study as a pure math major at the end of the month, and I enjoy (almost) every minute of it. :)
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.nS) quote of the week:
"I have come to the conclusion that from now on your tournament should be referred to as TSCBWGFAQSTOC for short." - Snowster
From: cyko | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:13:32 AM | Message Detail
alright, it's time for my 5 hours of sleep. if i wake up and Kefka is up by over 1000 and still gaining, then the match is over at that time. but, for now, this one is still up in the air.

*waves Kefka flag in right hand*

*waves Vercetti flag in left hand*

---
Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer
is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:13:40 AM | Message Detail
Fancy that...his lead fell under 600 again...
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:14:03 AM | Message Detail
*shoots Cyko's right hand off*

---
Fennsiv is a dirty slut who deserves to burn in hell.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:14:05 AM | Message Detail
Looks like Vercetti's going to be taking a nice little five-minute update here.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: smitelf | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:14:11 AM | Message Detail
Damn you, Kefka, you can do this!
---
Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
From: Crono801 | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:15:22 AM | Message Detail
Dare I say Vercetti is cutting into the lead a bit, or at least stalling better than he has been?
---
Welcome to Moonside. Wecomel to Soonmide. Moonwel ot cosidme
From: The Doppleganger | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:15:27 AM | Message Detail
Vercetti with a nice gain here. Damn, this match is pretty entertaining.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:16:07 AM | Message Detail
Bleh. Math... To think I actually used to ENJOY the subject growing up. I don't see what you math majors like about it. Differential Equations 1 & 2 had to be the worst classes I EVER took. They were just a necessary evil. Give me a course where math is applied anyday however.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:16:09 AM | Message Detail
Just for research purposes this is how many votes Kefka has gained per 5 minutes:

3:05 195
3:10 37
3:15 68
3:20 42
3:25 30
3:30 24
3:35 31
3:40 56
3:45 7
3:50 42
3:55 12
4:00 15
4:05 21
4:10 21
4:15 -11

So over the last 20 minutes he is averaging about 14 votes per 5 minutes.
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: George Romero | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:17:06 AM | Message Detail
Back up over 600.
---
""Do you really think you can 'blow the piss out of them'? All of them?"
*is M410123*
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:17:19 AM | Message Detail
Such an entertaining match. Shame it'll be followed by such a one sided SFF fest. Needless to say, GO CRONO!!!!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: NoCheating23 | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:17:27 AM | Message Detail
It just keeps going up and down. :p I mean the lead of course.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:17:28 AM | Message Detail
Damn you, Kefka, you can do this!

That's right! STALL AND DROP! STALL AND DROP!
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:18:08 AM | Message Detail
Tommy just needs to buy himself some time.
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: Crono801 | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:18:12 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, I've been warned to stay away from Differential Equations. I think that Calc I-III will be enough for me ^_^
---
Welcome to Moonside. Wecomel to Soonmide. Moonwel ot cosidme
From: smitelf | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:18:46 AM | Message Detail
Aw, Differential Equations aren't that bad...
---
Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:18:46 AM | Message Detail
I take Calculus IV this fall. Last Calc class ever!
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:19:51 AM | Message Detail
If the Knuckles/Kefka match is any indication, Tommy's ABSOLUTE ceiling is under 57.5%. Realistically, through Diablo/Kefka we can set Tommy's ceiling at 54%. And since Kefka's 600 vote lead is double what he ever had on Diablo, and six times what he ever had on Knuckles, I will be absolutely floored to see Tommy break 51% if he somehow wins.

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 18/18 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: George Romero | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:19:57 AM | Message Detail
I think Kefka will be screwed once the morning/day vote comes.
---
""Do you really think you can 'blow the piss out of them'? All of them?"
*is M410123*
From: Crono801 | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:20:28 AM | Message Detail
Kefka goes on another tear...
---
Welcome to Moonside. Wecomel to Soonmide. Moonwel ot cosidme
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:21:12 AM | Message Detail
Kefka gained 31 in that last update.
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: George Romero | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:21:45 AM | Message Detail
He actually gained % there.
---
""Do you really think you can 'blow the piss out of them'? All of them?"
*is M410123*
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:22:42 AM | Message Detail
Believe me its a pattern. He gains percentage one update per 30 minutes and he almost loses votes (or does) one update per 30 minutes.
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/6/2005 1:23:12 AM | Message Detail
He's going up 600 a little faster now. Almost at 650.
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
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