510 lead.
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""Do you really think you can 'blow the piss out of them'? All of them?"
*is M410123*

*throws a 500 vote lead party*

Everyone is invited! Except you silly Tommy pickers, of course!

---
the-elite.net
Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/

you could easily say that it's blatantly obvious Kefka's going to win by his 55-45 lead. Diablo's was like 51.5-48.5.

Except I meant weeks before the match occured. Ridley is a garbage villain.

---
Fennsiv is a dirty slut who deserves to burn in hell.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

Kefka's not really showing signs of slowing down, at all. If it takes Tommy two hours to start decreasing the lead... well, it'll look pretty bleak by then.
---
Welcome to Moonside. Wecomel to Soonmide. Moonwel ot cosidme

From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 8/6/2005 12:46:59 AM | #048
Did you miss me, Ulti?

^_^

But I thought I...!

*Various good luck charms shatter, disintegrate, die, etc.*

Ohhh...

===
Oh. My. God.
Did the PS2's light just change color...?!

Kefka is doing much better than what I had expected.

I just have to hope that he dropped like a rock when the day vote comes, as usual.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Actually, maybe not. Kefka had a lead of nearly 250 three hours in with his match with Diablo, and ended up losing by almost 7,000.
---
Welcome to Moonside. Wecomel to Soonmide. Moonwel ot cosidme

If it takes Tommy two hours to start decreasing the lead... well, it'll look pretty bleak by then.

*does some quick math*

Let's see... starts to decrease in two hours... that gives him 22 hours to cut the lead and build one of his own. What's so bleak about that?
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

These insta updates are awful in that they're far too addicting. At least with the 15 minute ones you had time to kill. This way you just look and feel like some crazed addict maddingly refreshing again and again and again...
---
Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

Kefkas gonna get a friggin 600 lead in a minute, just you wait. This is some crazy ****. Oh well, Ness and Kefka are better than GTA peeps anyhow. Guess I'll wait till next year, again <_<
---
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.

And I call it: Tommy has lost.
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.

at least this one is living up to the hype. Vivi/Zelda was an absolute dud.
---
nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.

Kefka 55.6% 2656
Tommy Vercetti 44.4% 2121
TOTAL VOTES 4777

I like the number pattern.

>_________>

---
Fennsiv is a dirty slut who deserves to burn in hell.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

Kefka 55.58% 2661
Tommy Vercetti 44.42% 2127
TOTAL VOTES 4788

OH NOES WHERE ARE YOU GAMESPOT AGAIN

Yeah, also there was a lot more suspense with the 15 minute ones.
---
""Do you really think you can 'blow the piss out of them'? All of them?"
*is M410123*

Kefka 55.5% 2693
Tommy Vercetti 44.5% 2159
TOTAL VOTES 4852

Almost there....

---
Fennsiv is a dirty slut who deserves to burn in hell.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

These insta updates are awful in that they're far too addicting. At least with the 15 minute ones you had time to kill. This way you just look and feel like some crazed addict maddingly refreshing again and again and again...

Just use sc2k5.com's instant updater so you won't be stuck constantly refreshing. It updates every 5 minutes, and it's easy to keep track.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Well, win or lose, this clearly shows that Terra over Dante is a guarantee.
---
Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

I just have to hope that he dropped like a rock when the day vote comes, as usual.

Everyone was doing a pretty damn good job too! :(
---
.nS) quote of the week:
"I have come to the conclusion that from now on your tournament should be referred to as TSCBWGFAQSTOC for short." - Snowster

I'm not gonna wait any longer for this, in case someone else takes it.

FastFalcon, you just got QUOTE'D.

===
Oh. My. God.
Did the PS2's light just change color...?!

I'd be enjoying this so much more if I hadn't made such an awful Oracle prediction...

There's no way Vercetti's going to gain the number of votes Diablo did, since that would require a much bigger swing in percentage than it did for Diablo.
---
SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Current Score: 17/18 | Today: Vercetti over Kefka

Just use sc2k5.com's instant updater so you won't be stuck constantly refreshing. It updates every 5 minutes, and it's easy to keep track.

lol, it's too addicting to do that!!!
---
Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

Kefka 55.34% 2767
Tommy Vercetti 44.66% 2233
TOTAL VOTES 5000

GO KEFKA!!!
---
"Those people who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do." ~ Isaac Asimov

Holy crap... Vercetti's rising like a rock launched by a rock launcher of some sorts!
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Kefka 55.34% 2767
Tommy Vercetti 44.66% 2233
TOTAL VOTES 5000

---
The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters

Well, win or lose, this clearly shows that Terra over Dante is a guarantee.

You are obviously very tired and need to get off my internet and go to bed. It has not even been an hour. :-(
---
PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (207 Signs!)

Well, Vercetti doesn't need to gain nearly the number of votes Diablo did to win the match, does he?
---
Welcome to Moonside. Wecomel to Soonmide. Moonwel ot cosidme

17 Crono's in the top 50. 18 Mario's. Mario comes back on top again...
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

What all the stats people need to keep in mind is that in some cases it's impossible to establish transitive rankings for group preferences. Not just difficult, but theoretically impossible.

In other words, if Mario can beat Crono, and Crono can beat Sephiroth, it's still theoretically possible that Sephiroth could beat Mario. Given the wide ranging fans and opinions, frankly I'd be surprised if there weren't a lot of scenarios like that, where A beats B and B beats C but C still beats A.

You have 64 characters in this contest. Let's say you establish a transitive ranking in regard to all of them, or a list of how strong they all are into each other. And you say that any character on that list beats any character below it. For your rankings to be correct you'd have to have the relations between 2016 characters correct AND guarantee that none of those rankings fit into the category of non-transitivity, where A beats B, B beats C, and C beats A.

That's pretty much impossible to guarantee, and given that you're basing 2016 relative rankings on the strength of 63 rankings established in the contest, you can only empirically test about 3% of those rankings assuming nothing changes from year to year. The rest is just extrapolated. Extrapolation is useful, but it can most certainly be false. When talking about the opinions of a group you're not talking about an individual entity which prefers a group of characters in some order, or even two large group of fanbases who prefer two different sets of characters, but a hundred thousand people who visit gamefaqs casually and vote on the strength of the characters they like.

Stats are useful, but imperfect. And frankly you have to trust your intuition on some matches if you hope to get ahead of the crowd.
---
The Insane A-Team: Trivia XII team
Gamefaqs Fanfic Project Archive: http://www.rose-hulman.edu/~newheims/ffproj.htm

Holy crap... Vercetti's rising like a rock launched by a rock launcher of some sorts!

You're not supposed to aim that at the ground. ;.;

---
Fennsiv is a dirty slut who deserves to burn in hell.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

Hmmm...Every 10 or 15 minutes, Kefka seems to stall. I've gotta wonder how long it'll be before he ceases to gain like mad afterwards.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

What was the BOP for this?
---
""Do you really think you can 'blow the piss out of them'? All of them?"
*is M410123*

a lot of people think the stats topic does nothing but look at stats and pick whoever has the highest number. we're not that robotic, you know.

this seems to come up daily lately.
---
nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.

After his initial 300 vote lead in the first 15 minutes, Kefka got only 260 more votes in the next 45.

What is the general point of no return as far as comebacks concern?
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.

Vercetti - 92
Kefka - 60
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

From: George Romero | Posted: 8/6/2005 12:58:52 AM | #082
What was the BOP for this?

From the version I have, it's 65-55.

===
Oh. My. God.
Did the PS2's light just change color...?!

You know, this reminds me of LttP VS FF6, where FF6 started off with a lead, and only managed to build it up slowly during the night, before LttP came charging back in force. God I miss that Spring Contest...

Anyway, Tommy is not the Day Vote monster that Zelda is, but GTA still has an advantage when it comes to the day vote against FF6, so who knows if the same scenario plays out...
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

Kefka is doomed.

---
"It takes but a man to gaze into his own twilight and approach it with fear. It takes but a legend to approach it with open arms." - The Unheard Z

I remember when it was 2000, but that has been breached a few times. Once you past 3000, well...that's sort of it.
---
Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

I don't believe anyone's ever won after being down by 3000 votes, though larger lead shifts have occured (Duck Hunt, Bastard Hand, etc.)
---
The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters

I'm not saying you're robots. I'm just saying that political scientists and serious statisticians struggle with many of the same problems you're talking about here in trying to rank characters relative to each other and figure out who would win, and there's no way to be absolutely certain of it essentially. And in some cases whoever wins the contest simply depends on which order the matches were held in. I enjoy discussing stats and stuff like that myself, you just can't be arrogant about it.
---
The Insane A-Team: Trivia XII team
Gamefaqs Fanfic Project Archive: http://www.rose-hulman.edu/~newheims/ffproj.htm

BOP:
Tommy Vercetti 92 60.53%
Kefka Palazzo 60

Gurus were 5% MORE sure of Tommy. Whoops!

---
the-elite.net
Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/

What is the general point of no return as far as comebacks concern?

The largest successful comeback was MC's 2400 vote comeback against Frog, and that was actually a 3000 vote swing as he built a 600 vote lead before collapsing.

Still, generally once it gets over 2000, comeback hopes are very unlikely.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

To add on to BigCow's post, voting patterns are -- in general -- not at all transitive. That some of the matches here seem to line up is actually quite curious to me, and it is certainly something worth investigating. I really need to talk about it with some of my peers and get their opinion on it.
---
.nS) quote of the week:
"I have come to the conclusion that from now on your tournament should be referred to as TSCBWGFAQSTOC for short." - Snowster

So at the pace Kefka is now going he have to gain like this for another 6 hours.
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.

So at the pace Kefka is now going he have to gain like this for another 6 hours.

At this pace...A LOT more than 6 hours...
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

What's the link to the BOP?

And, I thought Starcraft vs. Halo was the biggest comeback, but it looks like I'm mistaken.
---
Welcome to Moonside. Wecomel to Soonmide. Moonwel ot cosidme

Kefka is really slowing down now.
---
""Do you really think you can 'blow the piss out of them'? All of them?"
*is M410123*

At the 1 hour mark, this match has 5379 votes.

Ness/CJ - 5122
Sora/Agent 47 - 5235
Tidus/KoAC - 5510
MC/CATS - 5359
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Bigcow: I haven't seen anyone today (or at all, really) say "but... but... TV is higher in the stats! how can this be!" most of us that took TV took him because we thought he'd win in a match against Kefka. I still think he's got a great shot.

and now Ngamer's just rubbing it in. :)


---
nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.