or helping mine =)
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Spring Contest 2k5 Score: 76/80 T-117th

This will absolutely not be Kefka/Knuckles. Kefka should lead at least until morning, and given that this is a weekend match, voting should be down, and since GTA does better with the casuals, Kefka should have enough to eke out a victory.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 18/18 (empty slots in brackets suck)

I see no reason for Lettuce Kefka to be weaker than FMV Kefka...there isn't any evidence of that, except that Lettuce Kefka almost lost to Pac-Man, which was two years ago. He seemed stronger the next when he faced Knuckles, and on par with his Sp2K5 level, where he lost to Diablo with his FMV picture.

Oh, and Vercetti isn't far off from Knuckles at all...Knuckles was expected to beat him with 51.5% last year. Kefka's best hope is that there was no 20XX and he increased between SC2K4 and Sp2K5, as the unadjusted stats indicate. The only thing truly going against the 20XX factor was Zero/Ryu Hayabusa, and Ryu H's picture is my blame for that. Everything else just happens to coincide with Frog's 4-pack from SC2K4 so far.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Kefka's best hope is that there was no 20XX

uh... they were both in the same division.
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.

Anyone who thinks Gordon Freeman will not get doubled by the guy who is
A) The most popular RE character among RE fans
B) The star character of the two most popular RE games by the general gaming public
C) Will get some portion of the Nintendo vote.

Ah, the Nintendo vote...that's probably the biggest advantage Leon has over Jill Valentine and the others.

Anyway, Jill Valentine does have something that Leon doesn't...she's a woman and she's hot. I really have no idea how big of an impact that has on her popularity, but it probably isn't miniscule. I think she -could- be more popular than Leon Kennedy still...i"m totally unsure about this, though.

Regardless, all those who're predict Leon to beat Gordon with less than 60% is just shooting themselves in the foot.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

uh... they were both in the same division.

If there was no 20XX factor Kefka would drop from 22.75% to 20.5%, and Vercetti would drop from 25.9% to 23.5%. You could easily say Kefka grew from 20.5% to 23% (according to Sp2K5 stats) while Vercetti didn't grow at all from his 23.5% (unadjusted 2K4 stat), or that Vercetti possibility fell.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

If this keeps up, I might actually stand a chance at being in the top five oracle predictions (Just under 65%).

===
Oh. My. God.
Did the PS2's light just change color...?!

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

I'm anxious to get the current boring match over with and get to Kefka vs. Vercetti.

After CJ's embarrassing lost to Ness, I'm starting to worry about Vercetti > Kefka.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

I was about to post the exact same thing. the offseason gets more posts than this. Sam Fisher should never be in another contest again.

I think tomorrow's match is a tossup, but I don't really care who wins. they're both midtier characters that will always get murdered in round 2.
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nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.

they're both midtier characters that will always get murdered in round 2.

Both have made it to round 3 >_>
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :

Kefka never did, and it took cannon fodder to get him to round 2... and he STILL almost failed.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 016/017 - Matches: 16/17 - Rank: 00981/33793 - Today: DK - Tomorrow: Vercetti

I was referring to the villains contest.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :

Janus: NOBODY LIKES YOU!
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Vote Ryu in Summer Contest
SHIN-SHO-RYUKEN!

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Flood Division Round 1 - Match 19 – (3)Kefka vs. (6)Tommy Vercetti

Kefka
Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy VI
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: N/A
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 52nd (16.08%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2004: 35th (19.09%) Adjusted Value: 34th (21.21%)
Seed in 2002: N/A
Seed in 2003: 12
Seed in 2004: 7
Lost in 2003 to Crono in Round 2
Lost in 2004 to Knuckles in Round 1

Kefka is back and with another seeding boost. Go clown.

Vercetti
Game/Series Known From: Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: N/A
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 27th (25.58%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2004: 26th (21.75%) Adjusted Value: 29th (24.17%)
Seed in 2002: N/A
Seed in 2003: 3
Seed in 2004: 5
Lost in 2003 to Mega Man in the Sweet 16
Lost in 2004 to Zero in Round 2

Vercetti is also back with another seed drop. Go Hawaiian shirt.

Well…if I had to pick my Halo/Starcraft or Ridley/Diablo match for this Contest, it would have to be this one. (By that I mean most disputed and hard to call Round 1 match) On one hand, we have Kefka, who has proven several times that he is weak, and he takes on Vercetti, who is a fading GTA star. Lettuce begin analyzing, cause this match needs it bad.

First, let’s look at some Contest History on the two. They both made their debut in 2003. That glorious year when Final Fantasy characters performed like they were on some performance-enhancing substance. Kefka’s first match was against Pac-Man, and boy, we remember how that went. Kefka was given an unrecognizable Lettuce pic, and Pac-Man took advantage of that. The match ended up extremely close, with Kefka winning by only 1773 votes. Kefka then went on to get a creepy face-pic while Crono looked on in all his badassery. Needless to say, Crono gave Kefka a good ol’ SFF beat down and just missed breaking 80% on him. Kefka was a joke. Vercetti, on the other hand, had a much better year. He had received a 3-seed, and a countless amount of casuals had him winning the whole thing (same with Master Chief). Round 1 put him against Kite. No troubles there, but him barely being able to break 65% on a character like that meant he had no shot at winning. His next match was against DK in another classic match. These two went at it for the day. It finally took the evening vote for Vercetti to barely pull away for the win. Up next in Vercetti’s path was Mega Man, and that’s where it all ended for him. Vercetti got doubled there, and the casuals cried for days.

Fast-forward to 2004 now. You know, the one with the predictible bracket and one of the ugliest looking divisions we have ever seen. Yeah! Kefka and Vercetti were both in it too; Kefka with a higher seed, Vercetti a lower one. This time, they were both in the same division. Unfortunately, it was Mega’s division. Boy, do I hate that division. Kefka had to face Knuckles in Round 1. Even after his horrible performance last year, a lot of brackets still had him winning the match. Nearly 57% of the brackets had Kefka winning this match. Kefka did look impressive early on, but Knuckles caught up fast and ran with that Sega day vote. In the end, Knuckles won with over 57%. Vercetti had a slightly better year. First he had to face Max Payne. Now we all know how weak Payne is, but Vercetti made Payne actually look…..good. Vercetti failed to break 62% on Max, and then went on to face Zero in Round 2. Goodbye Vercetti. Zero won the match with ease, yet Zero also failed to break 62% on Vercetti. Of course, it’s blurry from there on out because Zero then faced Mega, who went on to face Link and messed everything up.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Donkey Kong vs. Sam Fisher - Bracket: DK - Vote: DK (16/17)

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Now let’s take a little side-story with Kefka as we go into the Spring Contest 2005. I usually wouldn’t bring up the Spring Contest in a Summer Contest analysis, but this match is special. Kefka was given a 1 seed in his division, perfectly titled the “Ruin Division”. Now, we all thought Kefka wasn’t deserving of the 1 seed, but he had such an easy path, he wouldn’t get upset until the 3rd Round. Kefka first beat Mithos, but failed to break 64% on him. Of course, this could mean that Mithos was a lot stronger than we had expected, seeing has how Lloyd and Kratos both got into the Summer Contest. They both received good seeds, but it depends on their Contest Strength. Hopefully I’ll remember to edit some of that information in when the matches pass. Next round, Kefka got his angel sprite in his match against Wesker. That helped him out and Kefka broke 70% on Wesker. He was now looking pretty good to take out Diablo, but that just wasn’t happening. Kefka lost to Diablo with about 46% of the vote. In the end, Kefka ended up with being projected to get 26.73% on Seph. Using those stats, this puts Kefka at 22.99% on 2003 Link, a 2.5% boost up from his extrapolated numbers, and a .24% boost from his Adjusted numbers. Using the 2004 Un-Adjusted stats (because so far this Contest has shown than 20XXDF is non-existant), this puts Kefka right below Tails, who is right below…*surprise surprise* Vercetti!

So, right now the match is predicted to play out in a 51-49% affair. If Kefka can keep up his trend and receive another boost, it might just put him over Vercetti. He only needs another small boost according to the stats, and Kefka’s been getting plenty of Contest experience since his horrible debut in 2003. Vercetti also took a drop in 2004. Luckily for him, San Andreas might give him a much-needed boost, but I doubt it. It’s kinda like saying Geno would get a boost from another Super Mario game, or Link would get a boost from Soul Calibur 3. Vercetti wasn’t in San Andreas at all, so that might hurt his Contest appearance. To make things worse for him, Carl, the star of SA made it in, and bombed against Ness. Carl might be less recognizable than Vercetti, but that’s still not good to have on his resume. Ness is right above an un-adjusted Kefka, but remember, Kefka has boosted since then.

A final thing to look at is the Contest so far. Most of this was written long before the Contest started, so I’ve just updated some things. So far in this Contest, we’ve seen higher vote totals for the big 2 companies, Nintendo and Square. Matches with those two companies break 100K, but matches like Lloyd/Wesker can’t break 85K. This is another good sign for Kefka, as he is Square born and raised. Also, I said before, CJ bombed against Ness, but if Vercetti is stronger than CJ, then it makes no difference. It’s still interesting to point out. In the match picture, Kefka received a further back shot of his pic against Diablo, while Vercetti didn’t get the Hawaiian shirt. Can Vercetti still perform up to par without the Hawaiian shirt?

So yeah, I’m going for the upset. I’m taking Kefka over Vercetti. Combine another Kefka rise with a another Vercetti drop and it could happen. FF6 was once the second biggest FF on the site, and now it is getting some more exposure with Kefka, and now Terra making the Contest. Vice City is a huge game, but FF6 is bigger here (check the Game Contest stats for proof). Now I was on the wrong end of both Halo/Starcraft and Ridley/Diablo, but this time I went with the upset pick, so I hope it pays off now!

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Kefka will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Kefka: 51% - Vercetti: 49%

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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Donkey Kong vs. Sam Fisher - Bracket: DK - Vote: DK (16/17)

Ulti’s Analysis

This is the only match in the entire division that will actually be exciting, if for no other reason than the fact that the board has hyped this match to high heaven. CJ's bombing against Ness has probably caused many a Vercetti fan to lose their faith in his chances, too.

Personally, I think Vercetti will win with relative ease. The big argument for Kefka is that despite Vercetti being stronger in the stats, the GTA fans would abandon Vercetti for CJ come this contest. I don't know about anyone else, but that's about the most ridiculous theory I've heard in awhile. It's on par with saying that Cloud and Squall will be forgotten by their fans once Final Fantasy 12 comes out. Give me a break.

Besides, go look at Ness/CJ for a minute. Those GTA fans sure did back up their new hero, eh? Of course, here's where all of the "But Kefka did so well in the villain contest!1!!" crap comes into play.

First of all, he was in three matches. He performed like crap in the first, was given a horribly unfair picture advantage in the second, and got his ass kicked by Diablo after taking a 300 vote lead to start the poll in a match in which he was the overwhelming favorite to win. Secondly, if you take Kefka's Spring 2005 number and plug it into the 2004 stats, he goes up by a whopping 0.24%.

Massive increase, that. Kefka will probably take the early vote and give the board a four hour boner, then Vercetti will proceed to do what Diablo did. Kefka may do well because of bracket voting, but look at what that did for him against Diablo. Squadoosh.

Prediction: Vercetti with 55.65%



Soul’s Analysis

All joking aside, this is probably the toughest match in the first round, in my opinion. Out of the entire bracket, I only had to change two matches, this one being one of them (Other one being Vincent > Dante).

Both competitors have been in the contest before. Both competitors have been somewhat of a disappointment in the past. Tommy Vercetti always had the edge over Kefka though. In 2003, Vercetti finished 27 places higher then Kefka. In 2004, with GTA: Vice City wearing off, Vercetti finished only 5 spaces ahead of Kefka. Of course, those who only look at the stats will choose Vercetti easily.

Guess again. There's a number of factors that can take place in this match.

1. Will CJ be stronger then Vercetti? If this is true, then Vercetti must have fallen way off the radar.
2. What picture will Kefka get? If he doesn't get his lettuce picture, Vercetti could be in grave danger.
3. Was Kefka's performance in the Spring contest a fluke? With the Spring Results being disregarded so far, there is nothing to show that Kefka has gained.

As you can tell, this match is not so easy. The main thing here will be Kefka's picture. I know most people tend to think that pictures do not matter, and I agree with them, for the most part. There are only 2 competitors where the pictures has made an impact: Snake against Frog, and Kefka against anybody. The proof is that he broke 70% against Wesker in SpC2K5 when he had his angel picture.

Basically, if Kefka gets his angel picture, he has a great shot at "upsetting" Vercetti. If not, then Vercetti has to hope that he didn't lose enough popularity through the years. Basically, this is the first coin flip matches in the bracket, and definitely not the last.

My prediction: Vercetti wins with 50.56% of the vote. As said with Lloyd, congratulations to the winner, you move on to face Crono next round!

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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Donkey Kong vs. Sam Fisher - Bracket: DK - Vote: DK (16/17)

Outback’s Analysis

Two jobbers. And yet, we still have the potential for the greatest match in the contest as of yet. Kefka looked strong in the Spring Contest, but those numbers are unreliable. Tommy is no strong competitor either, but he still has had semi-solid showings in the last couple of contests. His strength really is only in question because of CJ's bomb job against Ness. Really, everything points to TV winning. For example:

Kefka 42.54% 35220
Knuckles the Echidna 57.46% 47578
TOTAL VOTES 82798

Knuckles is a midcarder at best, and Kefka struggled to get more than 40 percent.

Tommy Vercetti 38.16% 30775
Zero 61.84% 49875
TOTAL VOTES 80650

Meanwhile, Tommy did a mere 4% worse against Zero, a MUCH stronger opponent then Knuckles. Tommy will win in a close one, but will carry the lead throughout the day, similar to Tidus v. Shadow of last year.

Tommy Vercetti with 51.11%



Inviso’s Analysis

According to Slowflake’s contest stats…this match is supposed to be the closest match of the first round, and is one of the two closest matches of the entire contest. Kefka has been quite weak so far. In 2003, he barely beat Pac Man, before he was completely obliterated by Crono. In 2004, he was beaten soundly by Knuckles. And last spring, he actually won two matches, one against Mithos, a cult RPG character that he failed to double, and another against Albert Wesker, who ended up being one of the lowest characters in the contest, after barely beating a cult character of his own. And after that, Kefka was sent home by Diablo. Tommy hasn’t exactly been that strong either. In 2003, he failed to double a .Hack character before struggling with DONKEY KONG, and then was beaten soundly by Megaman. In 2004, he failed to double Max Payne, and then was beaten by Zero. So now, these two weaklings face off. Now…Kefka can win only if Pac Man is strong than Donkey Kong, and Tommy can win only if Donkey Kong is stronger than Pac Man. It’s gonna be close.

My Bracket: Tommy Vercetti
My Vote: Kefka Palazzo
My Prediction: Tommy Vercetti with 51.23%



Tnote’s Analysis

On paper, the best match of the first round. However, I have a theory regarding Vercetti, which in a nutshell is that he will decrease in contest strength each year. The basis for this belief stems from the fact that GTA is constantly cranking out new games in the series, and as each successive game comes along, its fanbase will care just a bit less about previous titles. Now we have already seen that this does not mean the fanbase will like the characters in the new games, but I just believe that Vercetti, while one of my favorite characters ever (mainly do to the voicing talents of the best actor in Hollywood), is not memorable enough to maintain his peak popularity do to the high saturation of GTA in the market. Additionally, he will be getting no favors from the San Andreas scandal that has broken in the past week, which may mar what otherwise could have been a classic.

Kefka will most likely be getting his lettuce clown picture, which is probably only outdone by Meta-Cecil that got tripled by Kirby. I fail to see why CjayC does not let us submit pictures, but that is neither here nor there. What we do know is that Angel Kefka is significantly stronger than Lettuce Kefka, unless of course you want to believe that Mithos>Lloyd. Kefka wins, but it will neither be exciting nor impressive.

Pick: Kefka with 52.83%
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Donkey Kong vs. Sam Fisher - Bracket: DK - Vote: DK (16/17)

Vlado’s Analysis

This is it. The Flood division's real showdown. It comes in Round 1 and is between two characters that are absolutely sure to get crushed in the next round. But, it can ruin a good number of brackets. At first, I had Kefka winning in my bracket, but I then remembered how he made me lose my spot on the leaderboard on the spring, where I picked him to beat Diablo simply out of hope that he'd prove he wasn't that weak, after clearly knowing Diablo was the favourite... Well, that pick didn't pay off. The board also favours Vercetti and, at the end, I decided to change. I'll be veru happy to lose a point here, though.

Carl Johnson flopped really badly against Ness. The terrible picture and his name being fully written on the poll, instead of just using his initials, influenced the match a lot. If it wasn't for those, he would have probably won. But yeah, the only point me and most of the board lost so far came from that match. So... What does that tell us of Vercetti's chances? They're smaller now? Not really, I'd say. Obviously, the GTA fans prefer Vercetti and that's quite normal. The GameFAQs visitors prefer a sophisticated Italian gangster like him over the ghetto representative that is CJ. I think Tommy will inevitably have dropped a little since last year, but that'll likely still leave him over Kefka's level.

Kefka got stronger in the spring contest. Heck, had his angel picture been used against Diablo, I'm sure we would have also seen him in the Final Four, a place he well deserves. He crushed Wesker so badly with it that we now have another stats paradox - Mithos is stronger than Lloyd. Kefka's popularity has been increasing with every next appearance in the contest. He's a lot like Crono here, except he's much weaker to begin with. Right now, I think he will be very close to Vercetti's level, but I still think that it won't be enough and he will, sadly, lose this match.

Predicted percentage: Tommy Vercetti with 51.75%

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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Donkey Kong vs. Sam Fisher - Bracket: DK - Vote: DK (16/17)

I was talking about in a normal contest, not getting matched up against DK in round 2. TV is hardly top 16 material.

and as for the Villain contest...... yeah.
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nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.

The villain contest should never count when keeping tabs of things like this, even if you buy the X-Sts. Matches won in a massively weaker bracket? Meaningless.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 016/017 - Matches: 16/17 - Rank: 00981/33793 - Today: DK - Tomorrow: Vercetti

People keep saying that Tommy is showing that he has maintained his strength because he made it in through nominations.

But they need to understand that he's been a 3 and a 5 seed in the past. This year, he's really an 11th seed (at best—in a 4 division bracket, there would be at least 40 characters seeded ahead of him). That much of a drop in seeding might indicate lack of nomination support, and this would support the idea that Tommy has dropped in strength.

Or it could be that CJ cannibalized his nominations. But still, the idea that Tommy didn't drop just because he made it back in doesn't really hold that well.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/5/2005 10:13:31 PM | Message Detail | #273
The villain contest should never count when keeping tabs of things like this, even if you buy the X-Sts. Matches won in a massively weaker bracket? Meaningless.

And what would be the reasoning behind that?

If you believe that, you have to believe matches in weaker divisions in a regular bracket mean less too. Which relates to the "fodder is unpredictable" idea, however we only care about those non-fodder characters like Kefka who made it into this contest too. So that doesn't apply.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Personally, I take the villain contest results with a grain of salt. Bowser stronger than Mario? Mithos stronger than Lloyd? You're making my brain hurt.

As for Vercetti getting weaker due to the release of San Andreas, well...it's possible, I guess. A bit of a longshot, but it's possible. After all, Vice City isn't getting any younger.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

the reasoning is simple: I made the comment talking about the summer contest, where there are at least 25 characters stronger than Kefka, maybe 30 or more. the Villain contest only had about eight characters that would make the summer bracket. it has nothing to do with the stats for the Villain contest being wonky or anything like that.
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nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.

What is Sp2k5 Kefka expected to get on Link?

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"It takes but a man to gaze into his own twilight and approach it with fear. It takes but a legend to approach it with open arms." - The Unheard Z

22.99%. stats on the Villain contest vs. Link are on sc2k5.
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nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.

The villain contest doesn't really imply that Boswer is stronger than Mario.

To make that sort of comparison, you have to do something like an LSE. The one I did implied Sephiroth going down, and Bowser is still a couple points behind Mario.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

But they need to understand that he's been a 3 and a 5 seed in the past. This year, he's really an 11th seed (at best—in a 4 division bracket, there would be at least 40 characters seeded ahead of him). That much of a drop in seeding might indicate lack of nomination support, and this would support the idea that Tommy has dropped in strength.

And CJ, the character that was supposed to get massive support, was a 5thseed. (in a 4 division bracket, that would be like a 9th seed.)
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Don't even bother reading this sig.

The villain contest should never count when keeping tabs of things like this, even if you buy the X-Sts. Matches won in a massively weaker bracket? Meaningless.

The villain contest still had decent vote totals. People obviously cared about the stronger characters. I wouldn't put much stock into someone like Wesker, but Ocelot, Diablo, Liquid, Bowser, Ganon, Kefka, and Sephiroth all had significant matches against each other. I wouldn't dare call any of those matches meaningless.

But they need to understand that he's been a 3 and a 5 seed in the past. This year, he's really an 11th seed (at best—in a 4 division bracket, there would be at least 40 characters seeded ahead of him). That much of a drop in seeding might indicate lack of nomination support, and this would support the idea that Tommy has dropped in strength.

Just because Tommy didn't get as many nominations this year, it doesn't mean that the people that voted for him before WOULDN'T vote for him. And against someone like Kefka? Please... People may not like a character as much as times goes by, but it definitely does not mean that they wouldn't vote for said character.

That being said, I just want to point out that the Tommy/Zero match went exactly like was predicted from the year before. I don't think he weakened at all, as Zero faced Mega Man, and we STILL don't know for sure whether or not he got SFFed. A Mega Man drop doesn't mean a Zero drop... So as far as I'm concerned, Tommy has shown few signs of weakening.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

The issue is not vote totals, it's the fact that 90% of the characters that could beat Kefka were kept out because of the contest theme.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 016/017 - Matches: 16/17 - Rank: 00981/33793 - Today: DK - Tomorrow: Vercetti

Just because Tommy didn't get as many nominations this year, it doesn't mean that the people that voted for him before WOULDN'T vote for him. And against someone like Kefka? Please... People may not like a character as much as times goes by, but it definitely does not mean that they wouldn't vote for said character.

Heh, I'm quoting myself... But anyways, now that I think about it, this very type of instance may be a glaring flaw of the X-stats.

Example:

- Let's say in 2k3, when Tommy Vercetti first appeared in the contest, a good number of his fans would vote him over everybody.... including Mega Man and Kefka.

- Now lets say the next year, those same fans aren't as high on Vercetti. They wouldn't vote him over the more popular characters such as Link, Mario, or Mega Man. But they would still vote for Tommy over Kefka.

So if Tommy went up against Kefka and did as expected, but then went up against Mega Man and did worse, wouldn't the X-stats show that both Tommy and Kefka must have decreased? That clearly wouldn't be the case for Kefka... only Tommy. And Tommy still would have been considered static in his match against Kefka since he didn't lose any of his votes against Kefka.

We've encountered this situation before with Tidus vs. Shadow and Tidus vs. Mega Man. It actually would be the best explanation for it. The X-stats assume that a decrease in popularity would be a decrease in across the board performance on EVERY character. But that obviously isn't the case. Am I incorrect in calling this a flaw of the X-stats that we NEVER account for?
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

This year, he's really an 11th seed

Actually, he's a 6. And yes, I'm well aware of what you meant. I also take that theory with a huge grain of salt, because it's clear that CJayC got rid of the 9-16 seeds to only allow the strongest characters he could into the bracket (minus guys like KoaC and Manny, of course).

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Adjusting DK's performance based on 2003 Fisher puts him at 23.58% on Link, which in turn puts Vivi at 27.08% on Link. Adjusting Zelda accordingly puts her at 33.48%, 0.43% above Snake.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

I think it depends on the character. TV is more likely is slide, since he's from a casual game and probably not going to be in another GTA game. (well, I assume so, since I've never played GTA.) some characters, ie Cloud, have staying power with only one game. I think FF in general will follow this pattern unless their game fades out into obscurity. (see: Cecil.) I'd be hesitant on comparing TV to Tidus just because they have totally different fanbases. I could see such a slide happening with a more casual character, such as Kratos.

this is all a guess, obviously.
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nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.

DK is not facing 2003 Sam Fisher.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Er...I meant 2004 Fisher.

Regardless, by the time DK finishes dropping, Zelda and Snake ought to be near equal.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

26.16% [on Link 2k3], which means that Halo 2 gave [Master Chief] a 0.01% boost.

Heh. Dayum, that's just got over-rated stamped all over that if that is the case.


Every vote he gets is a "I really really like Half-Life vote."

You forgot bracket votes and joke votes (his most important asset during the night-vote). =P


Leon = Sora? Could be possible.

Eh, COULD be...but I don't buy it. Yoshi's my ceiling for him, myself.


Im actually kind of dreading not taking the Sonic > Megaman upset.

As much as I love Mega Man, I've been dreadin' it too. I originally had Sonic > Mega Man, too...hopefully MM > Sonic will pull through though.


This won't be nearly as bad as Knuckles/Vercetti. It's not Lettuce Kefka, and Vercetti is no Knuckles.

Favoritism aside, I'd feel iffy about putting Knuckles over Vercetti. It's also not like 3D Kefka is widely more popular than Lettuce Kefka was, and Vercetti without the Hawaiian shirt may prove to be damaging too if pictures play a role for this match.


Fast-forward to 2004 now. You know, the one with the predictible bracket and one of the ugliest looking divisions we have ever seen. Yeah! Kefka and Vercetti were both in it too; Kefka with a higher seed, Vercetti a lower one.

Vercetti had a 5-seed, Kefka had a 7-seed.


The villain contest should never count when keeping tabs of things like this, even if you buy the X-Sts. Matches won in a massively weaker bracket? Meaningless.

I'm not gonna type up a large arguement right now, but I disagree with this.


I also take that theory with a huge grain of salt, because it's clear that CJayC got rid of the 9-16 seeds to only allow the strongest characters he could into the bracket

Both types of brackets hold sixty-four characters, no matter how you look at it. Had 2k4 been made with a 1-to-8-seed bracket, Tanner and CATS would still be 8-seeds, regardless of the strength.



As for today's match, I wish DK was doing better, but you can't be all that disappointed in him. I'll ask again since nobody answered earlier though: despite direct comparisons through Donkey Kong, would anybody take Bub over Sam Fisher?
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Fast-forward to 2004 now. You know, the one with the predictible bracket and one of the ugliest looking divisions we have ever seen. Yeah! Kefka and Vercetti were both in it too; Kefka with a higher seed, Vercetti a lower one.

Vercetti had a 5-seed, Kefka had a 7-seed.

I meant Vercetti had a lower seed from 2003 (3 -> 5) and Kefka had a higher one from 2003 (12 -> 7)
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Donkey Kong vs. Sam Fisher - Bracket: DK - Vote: DK (16/17)

You know who dropped from a 3 seed last year to a 6 seed (equivalent to an 11) this year?

Ryu Hayabusa. I think he did just fine.

Honestly, with the exception of the legends and icons, it's reasonable to expect seeding to drop over the years even if strength does not as people are not as overly eager to nominate them as they were when they were fresh (or they take for granted that they'll get in anyway).
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Not to mention Vercetti almost certainly took a dive in seeding due to having to split nominations with CJ.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Regardless, by the time DK finishes dropping, Zelda and Snake ought to be near equal.

Yeah, when you use older stats and extreme extrapolation <_<

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Personally, I don't think decreased seeding or increased seeding would mean someone decreased/increased all the time


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Summer Contest 2k5 - Points: 16/17
Bracket: DK - Vote: DK

Older stats as in, last year's? Obviously, since we have nothing more recent to go by.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Well yeah, but we don't know anything about DK or Sam Fisher yet. DK -> Vivi -> Zelda is a very large stretch, given that DK is the only character we have any reliable data on whatsoever.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Today's match end up being quite close to what was expected based on 2k4 X-stats.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Uh...*points to Sam Fisher*

This is pretty much how it was supposed to go, only Fisher's overperforming by a bit. Whether you want to chalk that up to DK or Sam is up to you.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno