so basically this is the only time DK has not disapointed heh?
---
Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

I was always under the assumption that Sephiroth overperformed against Cloud in the 2k3 Final. I never went through the steps to try to prove it, but it's something I always considered. I think ChichiriMuyo went through the process of proving it, but it went ignored for the most part.
---
Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

I fully believe that Sephy overperformed. That match took place two days after the Cloud/Link debacle.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

WVI 66.92% 24630
Sam Fisher 33.08% 12174
TOTAL VOTES 36804
---
Chun-Li > Bowser book it - lol_internet
Vote for Kirby in SC2K5!

Wow, Fisher's really cutting into DK's lead. If DK doesn't even manage a doubling, I don't think that there's really a realistic hope for DK > MC, especially given this match's low vote totals. :(

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness

From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/5/2005 8:52:37 AM | Message Detail
Someone said yesterday that Kefka at his strongest couldn't touch Vercetti at his weakest.

That someone would be a complete moron. Clown Kefka may not be able to beat Vercetti, but 2nd round villain contest Kefka would handily defeat Tommy, and you, Senator Trent, can take that to the bank.

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 18/18 (empty slots in brackets suck)

so is kefka vs vercetti gonna be worth watching?
---
Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

More worth watching than the last seven matches.

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness

From: TheGreatMaster | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:34:41 PM | Message Detail | #155
Wow, Fisher's really cutting into DK's lead.

We're on our sixth contest and people still don't understand percentages?

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

by the way what were the results for CATS/MC?
---
Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 7/23/2005 1:33:27 PM | Message Detail | #216
Sam Fisher vs Donkey Kong = Upset of the Year.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2082

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Sorry, Ulti. I forgot that you treat shorthand versions of saying "character X is doing proportionally better than previously in this match so as to decrease the percentage of the vote that character Y has" as the plague.

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness

Problem is, both Vivi and Auron seem to be underestimated by last year's stats. It's either Sephiroth SFFing both, or Cloud SFFing Sephiroth. I'm thinking it's the latter somewhat, mostly due to bracket-voting. The 2003 rendition was mostly free of it, since who the heck had Cloud getting there? While in 2004 everyone and their mother picked Cloud to win Midgar, and well, voting for Cloud instead of Sephiroth would probably be like changing four quarters for a dollar for many FF7 fanboys, so they didn't really mind protecting their bracket at Seph's expense. At least it comes across to me that way, since they're quite similar in strength, probably closer than any hero-villain combo (well, one could mention Lloyd/Mithos, but they're so far down it's hardly relevant).
---
SC2K5 status - Points: 016/017 - Matches: 16/17 - Rank: 00981/33793 - Today: DK - Tomorrow: Vercetti

so CATS got 31% on MC. a moral victory for him. that's the highest percentage he ever got in round 1 in a character battle. shame on MC
---
Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

I fully believe that Sephy overperformed. That match took place two days after the Cloud/Link debacle.

If I believed anything like that happened I'd say Mega Man overperformed against Sephiroth in 2K3. If Sephiroth overperformed against Cloud characters like Alucard's 4-pack and Crono/Mario would be dragged down even more. Mega Man, Snake, Knuckles, and Vercetti would still be dragged down...

Shocked there are still 980 perfect brackets. Figure that will be cut under 500 by the end of the tomorrow, and maybe down to single digits by the end of the first round.

I'm praying we'll be almost down to 50 by the end of Round 1 if there's no upsets...if there's any more upsets whatsoever outside of Kefka/Vercetti I'm sure the number of perfects will be in the single digits, however.

Problem is, both Vivi and Auron seem to be underestimated by last year's stats. It's either Sephiroth SFFing both, or Cloud SFFing Sephiroth.

I'm thinking more of the former. Sephiroth beat Auron by an amount that predicted Cloud would beat Sephiroth with almost exactly 56%, so it would seem that Sephiroth really was that much weaker. Also, I'm not so sure that Sephiroth even SFFed Vivi. Unadjusted DK is expected to beat Sam Fisher with 65.77% and DK seems to be headed to about that percentage.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Which reminds me, what would MC through Super CATS through Ansem through 2003 Ganondorf get on 2004 Link? I asked this yesterday, but it was when MC was in the vicinity of 66%. And I'm no good with extended chain of X-Sts calculations. So...?
---
SC2K5 status - Points: 016/017 - Matches: 16/17 - Rank: 00981/33793 - Today: DK - Tomorrow: Vercetti

Sephiroth beat Auron by an amount that predicted Cloud would beat Sephiroth with almost exactly 56%

Except there are no other reliable numbers for Auron, unless you're extrapolating him through 2004 Tails. Cloud SFFed him, remember?
---
SC2K5 status - Points: 016/017 - Matches: 16/17 - Rank: 00981/33793 - Today: DK - Tomorrow: Vercetti

From: TheGreatMaster | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:47:03 PM | Message Detail | #163
Sorry, Ulti. I forgot that you treat shorthand versions of saying "character X is doing proportionally better than previously in this match so as to decrease the percentage of the vote that character Y has" as the plague.

<3

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

I think it's reasonable that Sephiroth SFFed Auron with a similar amount to Cloud as they are both from the same game and have similar popularity...

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Slow: 26.16%, which means that Halo 2 gave him a 0.01% boost. Heh.
---
Summer Contest 2005: 16/17
Today: Donkey Kong, Tomorrow: Kefka

Oh, and that's on BL.
---
Summer Contest 2005: 16/17
Today: Donkey Kong, Tomorrow: Kefka

Is it possible that CATS just went up? I don't see anyone talking about that, but I suppose it's possible. Maybe something like an Alucard/Crono rom effect.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

You gave me 2003 Link... doesn't matter either way, since it's the only standard that's on every table.
---
SC2K5 status - Points: 016/017 - Matches: 16/17 - Rank: 00981/33793 - Today: DK - Tomorrow: Vercetti

I can't really see CATS increasing particularly much, certainly not because of emulation. While I wouldn't rule it out on an extremely small scale, the fact remains that the vast majority of his votes come from people who have never played Zero Wing.

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness

And Zero Wing isn't a particularly good game, either.
---
Summer Contest 2005: 16/17
Today: Donkey Kong, Tomorrow: Kefka

Either way, we're going through surprise after surprise here... which makes sense, since with all the SFF that was around last year it's hard to guess variations through two years. Hopefully at the end of the contest we'll have some decent X-Sts for once. Still, I'm worried about possible SFF matches screwing up stuff yet again. Ganondorf beating Auron could be a problem since he faces Samus, and then there's Samus/Mario, Mario/Ness, and also Crono/Magus, and a possible Kefka/Crono... at least it won't be as bad as last year, since many of these matches are late ones and we'll have other characters to work off with, like Knuckles, Dante or Squall in Magus' case. But why does Ness always HAVE to be in the most dubious spot for X-Sts calculations?
---
SC2K5 status - Points: 016/017 - Matches: 16/17 - Rank: 00981/33793 - Today: DK - Tomorrow: Vercetti

Donkey Kong 66.67% 27899
Sam Fisher 33.33% 13949
TOTAL VOTES 41848

Back down to a doubling.
---
That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]

it's official, Sam is the worst vote-drawer ever.

I'm just waiting for this match to be over. this is so boring.
---
nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.

This match is about 1,000 votes ahead of Lloyd/Wesker. That match ended up with 84,794 votes, so this one is looking to barely break 85K. Ouch.
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Donkey Kong vs. Sam Fisher - Bracket: DK - Vote: DK (16/17)

I think Kefka/Vercetti is gonna play out alot like Kefka/Knuckles. Kefka will have the lead early and then get buried by the day vote, thus letting Tommy win the match with a considerable margin.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 15/17 points
Current Match Prediction: Donkey Kong vs. Sam Fisher

Problem is, both Vivi and Auron seem to be underestimated by last year's stats.

How so? Auron faced an newbie and Vivi underperformed.
---
http://www.cbs.com/primetime/bigbrother6/_polls/amc_poll.shtml
VOTE FOR KAYSAR!

Auron faced Scorpion and Ness. They aren't newbies.

And today's match is doing nothing more than proving that 2003's stats are about as useful as 2002's.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

You know, if nothing else, these last two matches have made me reasonably confident that Donkey Kong should win the board vote against Master Chief.

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness

Donkey Kong should win the board vote against Master Chief.

i think we all came to that conclusion before the contest even started.
---
now playing: final fantasy 7, skies of arcadia, donkey kong country
Now reading: the bible, the summoning

The only characters that MC could get the board vote on is Cloud and Sephiroth.
---

Kefka will have the lead early and then get buried by the day vote, thus letting Tommy win the match with a considerable margin.

You wish.
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Donkey Kong vs. Sam Fisher - Bracket: DK - Vote: DK (16/17)

Is it possible that CATS just went up?

What? Since the Spring Contest?
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Finally, DK's percentage is stabilizing. It looks like he shouldn't end up below 66%. Not as great as I had hoped, but still better than many expected from him.

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness

Looks like last year's adjusted stats will have this match pegged rather accurately. Surprising.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

DK looks better here than at 70%. That's a scary place to see Dk (beating Dante, if Sam is stable).
---
"Love forever, love is free. Let’s turn forever you and me." - Gorillaz "Feel Good INC"

Donkey Kong 66% 38896
Sam Fisher 34% 20035
TOTAL VOTES 58931

---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

So...where does DK place right now on a static Fisher?
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

looks like 21.28% on 2k4 Fisher.
---
nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.

Fedor's back!

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=22675137
~~~
Deejay is as serious as they come. Beneath his sexy, stereotypical exterior beats the heart of a true angry black man. - Titan44

I was going to post in his thread "here's Link, #1 on the leaderboard" but decided not to make a war out of it.

I should have.
---
nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.

Sam Fisher with 34% here places DK at about 23.7% using last year's value for Fisher (16.12%). DK was at 23.55% last year. So last year's numbers were very surprisingly accurate here. I for one did not expect them to be, as I thought Fisher was underrated; but it looks like he's just really weak.
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

oh, that's not the same thread.

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=22673394

---
nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.

fedor is great.
---
You've won a dozen roses. - Andy Savage

Do you guys think Leon will get his RE4 pic when he faces Gordon? Because if he does, he'll destroy Gordon.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 15/17 points
Current Match Prediction: Donkey Kong vs. Sam Fisher