Thousands (maybe more) of voters would have had to think that for it to make any difference. You're assuming that other people pay as much attention to these things as we do.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

What's the "Least Squares" thing?

I think creativename had the best explaination:

From: creativename | Posted: 7/21/2005 12:16:09 AM | Message Detail
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/21/2005 2:39:14 AM | Message Detail
Least square differences how are those numbers produced? Whats the formula.

By adjusting one year's values by some scalar that will minimize the sum of squared difference between entrants over the two years. With some exclusions, e.g. for SFF.

I'll try to give a simple example. Say you have characters Cookie Monster, Big Bird, Grover, The Count, Snuffleupagus, and Oscar in a series of polls. Say that these are the X-stats from Year 1:

Big Bird 50%
Cookie Monster 48%
The Count 42%
Oscar 39%
Snuffleupagus 39%
Grover 38%

And from Year 2:

Cookie Monster 50%
Big Bird 42%
The Count 35%
Oscar 33%
Grover 35%
Snuffleupagus 22%

Let's also say that Snuffleupagus faced Big Bird in Year 2, and suffered massive SFF due to being his best friend. So we'll ignore his values completely during our calculations.

I'll put this in Excel terms. In some Excel cell, we have some constant value; and we have another column of values: the second year's values multiplied by this scalar. What we are interested in is the squared difference between this column, and the first.

e.g., if the scalar was 1.1, the difference for Big Bird would be:

(50% - 42%*1.1)^2 = .001444

We would repeat this for all non-Snuffleupagus characters and sum it up. The objective is to minimize this sum by changing the scalar.

In this example, the scalar becomes 1.103. This results in the following Adjusted X-Stats for Year 2:

Cookie Monster 55.15%
Big Bird 46.32%
Snuffleupagus 43.01%
The Count 38.60%
Grover 38.05%
Oscar 36.40%

Snuffleupagus' Year 1 value is multiplied by the scalar here. Note that in this example, the scalar ends up being basically the same as keeping Grover constant across years.

---
www.SC2K5.com

From: creativename | Posted: 7/21/2005 12:40:05 AM | Message Detail
For anyone interested, I've made an Excel sheet with the least squares example:

http://www.sc2k5.com/Least_Squares_Example.xls
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www.SC2K5.com
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

But if you peg Sephiroth at 43% there really isn't any Ganon increase that needs to be explained.

And Bowser...well, him being that strong just makes sense to me. Outside of his loss to Cloud pretty much every performance he's had has been impressive. Even his performance against Mario wasn't as bad with SFF as people were thinking it would be.
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Er, I was responding to Lopen. Sorry.
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Someone save that, TRE is brilliant.
~~~
Deejay is as serious as they come. Beneath his sexy, stereotypical exterior beats the heart of a true angry black man. - Titan44

Someone save that, TRE is brilliant.

*points to creativename*
He wrote it, not I.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Even if Ganon only increased by a percent or two, that's still more than enough for him to beat Auron with ease.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Anyone with a bracket will probably check out the leaderboard once in a while and see that. It has nothing to do with this board, I would've done the same thing otherwise. Considering there were 25000ish brackets, only a small fraction of the ones that were looking would have to change their votes.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

True, and then he turned around and bombed against Sephiroth. And then Frog bombed against Riku. And then Master Chief bombed against CATS. That entire trio was proven to be horribly overrated from the beginning.

Liquid Snake bombed against Sephiroth. Riku is new, and Master Chief didn't do that awful using Spring Cats, did he? Either way, we don't know about Frog until Samus, and we won't know about Chief till next round or the one after.

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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

Just because something can happen doesn't mean it will happen. It is possible that Sephiroth got a lot of anti-votes for being such a contest favorite, but there is no evidence that it actually happened.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Master Chief didn't do that awful using Spring Cats, did he?

He did around his 2k3 levels almost exactly.
---
Summer Contest 2005 - Points: 16/17
Today's Prediction: Donkey Kong - Tomorrow: Tommy Vercetti

I think it happened to a degree, but in a poll of 100,000 votes, a lot of people will have had to vote that way for it to make any type of noticeable difference.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

About what I said... So far, there hasn't been any direct evidence that such a scenario isn't the case. I'm only being honest: I don't think anything could happen later on to change my mind. I'm not saying that I'm correct, but I wouldn't want anyone to argue with me, since it would just be wasted. It's just a way I interpret the stats, and I couldn't expect anyone else to see it that way, no matter how far from the truth it is...

===
Oh. My. God.
Did the PS2's light just change color...?!

Ganondorf and Bowser "boosting" for no particular reason, and in sync, is evidence enough for me to believe that it happened.
---
Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

So, Sam Fisher, a friggin' secret agent with gadgets, gizmos, weapons, and three million sellers is supposed to lose to an APE WITH A TIE?! HELL NO!

Actually, his games haven't sold nearly that well, at least not on any given console. SC Xbox sold 1.5 Million, SC PS2 sold 900,000, and the rest aren't above 500k on any given console. Maybe they're big in Europe, but not so much in America.

Ganondorf and Bowser "boosting" for no particular reason, and in sync, is evidence enough for me to believe that it happened.

Bowser's boost was four times as big as Ganon's. I'd hardly call that in sync.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Ganondorf and Bowser "boosting" for no particular reason, and in sync, is evidence enough for me to believe that it happened.

That doesn't prove anything. Sephiroth could have fallen for any number of reasons. While your is certainly one of them, there's no evidence that it was the main reason.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

It could be any combination of factors. My problem is with people trying to argue that Bowser and Ganondorf doing better on Sephiroth was their own doing (and that their strength should increase in this contest accordingly), rather than Sephiroth's.
---
Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

Question.

How does Liquid Snake's least squares value compare with Master Chief's value based on a "regular" (i.e. not Sp2k5) Cats?
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The world is toroidal

How does Liquid Snake's least squares value compare with Master Chief's value based on a "regular" (i.e. not Sp2k5) Cats?

Master Chief would be roughly 1%BL higher.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

This... is a drubbing.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 17/17 (empty slots in brackets suck)

Shocked there are still 980 perfect brackets. Figure that will be cut under 500 by the end of the tomorrow, and maybe down to single digits by the end of the first round. I, however, shall be losing my perfect tomorrow, and given Clown Kefka is going up against gun-wielding Vercetti, me thinks I would have lost it even if my Kefka pick was there instead of my empty.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 18/18 (empty slots in brackets suck)

Cats>Sam Fisher, just you guys wait :D
---

I do think Master Chief will have the edge if only because Donkey Kong sucks at attracting votes, as shown by this match's low vote totals. Even if they were dead even in the stats, MC would still have the edge just because more people care enough to vote for him than those who'd vote for DK.

Of course, I haven't bothered to check and compare totals of DK matches with totals of other matches around them.
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Vote Kaysar!
http://www.cbs.com/primetime/bigbrother6/_polls/amc_poll.shtml

So Twilight Princess does not come out until Nov 1? Advent Children ships Sept 13? Meh, I still think this information will have no effect on this contest. Cloud probably makes it closer, but Link pulls it out.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 18/18 (empty slots in brackets suck)

For the hell of it, I'm posting the five matches with the lowest vote totals for each year.

Summer 2002

Max Payne VS Dirk the Daring: 50816
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=959

Pac-Man VS Kyo Kusanagi: 51889
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=980

Bomberman VS Kane: 52419
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=960

Donkey Kong VS Bub: 52618
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=943

Duke Nukem VS Iori Yagami: 52874
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=945

Summer 2003

Gordon Freeman VS Max Payne: 91278
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=945

Magus VS Sam Fisher: 91464
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1308

Yoshi VS Conker: 92418
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1316

Pac-Man VS Kefka: 93583
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1323

Luigi VS Ratchet: 94649
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1310

Spring 2004

Final Fantasy Tactics Advance VS Final Fantasy X: 65218
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1647

Final Fantasy Tactics Advance VS Fire Emblem: 65875
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1629

Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker VS Metroid Prime: 66844
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1646

Pong VS Tetris: 67679
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1636

Grand Theft Auto: Vice City VS Super Smash Bros Melee: 69169
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1648

Summer 2004

Vyse VS Laharl: 68808
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1735

Ryu Hayabusa VS Jill Valentine: 70413
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1747

Magus VS Luca Blight: 70495
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1722

Ness VS Jak: 72863
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1738

Dante VS Ratchet: 74039
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1745

Spring 2005

Luca Blight VS Wesker: 61194
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1998

Vergil VS Ghaleon: 63895
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1994

Revolver Ocelot VS Dr. Wily: 65478
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2006

Albedo VS M. Bison: 67601
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1999

Ansem VS CATS: 67790
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2002
---
Vote Kaysar!
http://www.cbs.com/primetime/bigbrother6/_polls/amc_poll.shtml

LOL pwnage. I don't think even an adjusted DK was expected to get so much. Cloud/Seph SFF, book it. Still doesn't explain how Magus did so miserable.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 016/017 - Matches: 16/17 - Rank: 00981/33793 - Today: DK - Tomorrow: Vercetti

Still doesn't explain how Magus did so miserable.

Well, that match had the second-lowest vote total in 2003, not to mention Magus also has another low-vote total match against Luca. Of course, neither opponent are really stellar vote getters, as Sam Fisher is so eloquently showing us this match.

It's also interesting how low Ryu/Jill was.
---
Vote Kaysar!
http://www.cbs.com/primetime/bigbrother6/_polls/amc_poll.shtml

Ow, DK's been bleeding in the last 15 minutes. Fisher getting the day vote against a household figure? Makes no sense, either.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 016/017 - Matches: 16/17 - Rank: 00981/33793 - Today: DK - Tomorrow: Vercetti

anyone feel that in tomorrow's match it will be a question of who bombs worst? both have bombed or chocked already
---
Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

Someone said yesterday that Kefka at his strongest couldn't touch Vercetti at his weakest.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 016/017 - Matches: 16/17 - Rank: 00981/33793 - Today: DK - Tomorrow: Vercetti

DMC2 sold less than 500,000 copies. It boosted Dante from 25.02% to 28.23%. Its reception was far worse than that of FFX-2, which has sold 1.4 million copies so far. I don't see why a Dante-style boost is so impossible for Yuna to attain.

Good enough of an arguement, especially since we're talkin' about FF here. I, like Leonhart, thought DMC2 hit the 1,000,000 mark...but it it didn't break 1,400,000 sames like FFX-2 did, then it doesn't really matter and that still stands.


Thirdly, for those of you who were talking about MC giving Sonic a very close match *coughHarrichAndHeroicMariocough*, well, yeah.

Heh, I'll take my licks...but to be fair, I did change my stance on MC around the time of the Villain Contest. I still thought he could take Squall though, heh, and I would think him and Vincent are on the same level still. Time'll tell on that (though it doesn't look all that bright)...but 'til then, yeah, Sonic-level's just a pipe-dream.


But this spells really bad news for Frog against Samus next round if they're overrated by THIS much.

Frod doesn't do bad matches. 52-48, Samus. =P

Seriously though, yeah, Frog's gonna get knocked the hell out.


Well, if there's ever an argument where a horribly disgusting picture can hurt you, then Frog can certainly make a good case if they're overrated by this much. Still, that can't be ALL attributed to the picture. That's a ridiculously large overperformance just due to a bad pic.

While I do believe match pictures can make an important difference (though rarely does it), I'll agree with this; that's a MONSTROUS over-performance.


see what Haste2's saying. He's doing "obvious extrapolation". It's something you can easily do without even having knowledge of the X-Stats. But it's more basic in the sense that you can do it just by looking at three polls or something, rather than pyramiding up to Link like the stats currently do.

That's what I used to do, too...and still do when necessary. That's from the old-school, yo.


Heh, DK should have his Coconut Gun in the match picture next round.

I like MC and he will probably get my vote...but if DK gets a pic with his coconut gun, I'm votin' for the ape.


Behold the power of Good Charollete in Donkey Konga 2.

He he he.


Apparently, Fisher operates differently from every other character in that he goes DOWN every time he gets a new game...

Which brings me to my next point: 2007, Sam Fisher/Serious Sam face off in an epic battle of the Sam's. Be there.


Actually, DK has never had a close first round match.

Duck Hunt. Respect the Nintendo Zapper.

Yes, I know you were meaning in the character contest...but when there's a game in the Game Contest called Donkey Kong, hey, throw that in the mix too, heh.


Someone said yesterday that Kefka at his strongest couldn't touch Vercetti at his weakest.

Wasn't Angel-Kefka supposedly stronger than Dante? 'Cuz Dante's stronger than Vercetti if that's the case, thus making that arguement void.



As for today's match...go, you damned monkey, go! Here's to hoping DK can keep Fisher under what he got against Magus, heh.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

*tagged*
---
VOTE: BOWSER in the Summer Contest

I'd laugh if DK ends up with more on Fisher than MC ended up with on CATS. That would be hilarious.
---
Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

DK fell right around where I predicted him to fall by morning. Still, very impressive for the ape! MC vs. DK got a bit more interesting now.

As for tommorrow...well, you all just wait and see.
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Donkey Kong vs. Sam Fisher - Bracket: DK - Vote: DK (16/17)

do you guys think dk will keep up this pase throughout the day? I was 100 percent sure he would beat sam fisher, but i never expected this much of an ass kicking.
---
now playing: final fantasy 7, skies of arcadia, donkey kong country
Now reading: the bible, the summoning

At the worst, he'll fall to 65-66%, he could also get the day vote, but I still wouldn't expect him to break 69%

So yeah, Fisher just sucks that much.
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Donkey Kong vs. Sam Fisher - Bracket: DK - Vote: DK (16/17)

Nice performance by Donkey Kong. The next round is looking pretty interesting, I would say.

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

That's it, if Snuffleupagus is ever not used to explain or prove methods of doing things in the future, it'll be someone's balls.

---
Fennsiv is a dirty slut who deserves to burn in hell.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

What's the current outlook on Chief/Kong?

Incidentally, I couldn't imagine CATS getting 18% on Samus...
---
SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu

http://www.i-mockery.com/minimocks/bigbird/default.php

For any Snuffleupagus fans. He wasn't ever one of my favorites, heh, but I still found this kinda funny.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

LOL pwnage. I don't think even an adjusted DK was expected to get so much. Cloud/Seph SFF, book it. Still doesn't explain how Magus did so miserable.

Uh, Vivi?
---
Summer Contest 2005: 15/16
Today: Master Chief, Tomorrow: Donkey Kong

By the way, when Luigi beats Tifa, you can all go **** yourselves. ;.;

---
Fennsiv is a dirty slut who deserves to burn in hell.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

Luigi's gettin' my vote, but I have no problem with Tifa beating Luigi considering both my preference and my bracket.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Off to work now...but would anybody actually take Bub over Sam Fisher?
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Once Snake bombs against Zelda and/or Bowser, we can drag him down with Frog, Master Chief and Liquid Snake as well.
---
There's always someone better.

From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/5/2005 11:40:31 AM | #141
LOL pwnage. I don't think even an adjusted DK was expected to get so much. Cloud/Seph SFF, book it. Still doesn't explain how Magus did so miserable.

Uh, Vivi?

Uh, Auron?
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SC2K5 status - Points: 016/017 - Matches: 16/17 - Rank: 00981/33793 - Today: DK - Tomorrow: Vercetti

If there was Cloud/Seph SFF it would affect both Vivi and Auron, not just one of them. Of course, today's result still doesn't mesh with Zelda/Vivi much, but, given the Spring contest, I think it's highly unlikely that Cloud SFF'd Seph.
---
Summer Contest 2005: 15/16
Today: Master Chief, Tomorrow: Donkey Kong

Donkey Kong 67% 23554
Sam Fisher 33% 11599
TOTAL VOTES 35153

What a sexy refresh!
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Donkey Kong vs. Sam Fisher - Bracket: DK - Vote: DK (16/17)

Hey Guy, check your gmail.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Err....

Never mind, wrong e-mail address.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus