Heh, I love this articulate, thoroughly researched, downright crushing use of logic and recent statistical evidence. I'm so intrigued, in fact, that I can't help but try your brilliant method myself:

So, Sam Fisher, a friggin' secret agent with gadgets, gizmos, weapons, and three million sellers is supposed to lose to an APE WITH A TIE?! HELL NO!

Oooh, throwing sarcastic sophisticated wit at me eh? Excuse me for being a little too tied for such words at ya know, 3:43 A.M my friend -_-

The point is, you can spin statistics anyway you wish them. You can't deny that.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.

What in the world? DK is actually going up now.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Ahhh...its not the hour after the match starts if we don't have the fanbases debating each other every time...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

Some of you witty, arrogant ones at these boards really astound me sometimes. Heh heh, oh well, whatever makes you feel good.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.

The point is, you can spin statistics anyway you wish them. You can't deny that.

I can't, but in the same sense, you can't deny there is statistical evidence hinting at Bowser at least challenging Snake, if not beating him outright.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Behold the power of Good Charollete in Donkey Konga 2.

Explain this Ulti. Why oh why did Bowser and Ganondorf both do better against Sephiroth than they should have, in a similar fashion (Bowser did better than Mario... come on, man). Certainly it couldn't be because they were facing a weaker Sephiroth. No, that would be too simple. Obviously Bowser and Ganondorf both increased proportionally.

I don't think they're worthless at all, as long as you accept that the Sephiroth there was not the same Sephiroth we all know and love here.

Yes, I agree, Sephiroth did drop, but what gets me is that Bowser and Ganondorf were almost identical in that contest. I'm banking Bowser being around Ganondorf's level, even if we only have 2k3 data on him...
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Summer Contest 2005 - Points: 16/17
Today's Prediction: Donkey Kong - Tomorrow: Tommy Vercetti

DK will take the day vote, correct?
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

The current percentages are quite shocking to me, especially considering how stupid DK looks.
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LordOfDabu.nS)
To be defeated by us is an honor.

Maybe Sam Fisher dropped in popularity again? He might be like a "Lara Croft", but more extreme. (I'm not saying I believe it, just that it's a possibility)

Well, with Sam Fisher at his lowest ('04 creativename's stats) and DK at his highest ('03 stats), DK was expected to win with 68.19%. Hm...

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Behold the power of Good Charollete in Donkey Konga 2.

This close to water all over the monitor.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

I can't, but in the same sense, you can't deny there is statistical evidence hinting at Bowser at least challenging Snake, if not beating him outright.

Challenging? Certainly. Beating him? Its all a matter of time. No need to insult my intelligence though, thats just mean.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.

DK should take the day vote, but considering how awful Sam has been in the early goings in all of his matches, he might take it by default.
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

It's all down to the Bongos.

Don't you remember the frightened Luigi picture against Pac-Man, and how well Luigi did? That was awful. :P Or, at least that's what most claimed...I personally liked that picture, though.

http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/displayimage.php?album=2&pos=3

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I say we worry about Bowser if/when that time comes. Snake still has to get through Zelda, and there's at least some statistical evidence to suggest that he might be the underdog.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?

Maybe Sam Fisher dropped in popularity again?

Apparently, Fisher operates differently from every other character in that he goes DOWN every time he gets a new game...
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

No need to insult my intelligence though, thats just mean.

Sorry if you took that the wrong way. Just good natured ribbing, and by no means a personal shot.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

2k3 is the only accurate reading we've gotten on DK, since he got SFF'd by Mario in '02 and he suffered through Vivi last year. This performance shouldn't be that shocking.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?

I don't think DK can take the day vote. He's just too high right now. Then again Fisher might have him outside of doubling range by the morning. I wouldn't be that surprised.

Fisher's got a pretty horrible night vote though. Remember when he needed the day to take out Gordon Freeman?
---
Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

We'll just have to wait and see. Round 2 is looking to answer a good deal of questions we have...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

Remember when he needed the day to take out Gordon Freeman?

PC-related things tend to do better at night.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters

I'll wait and see tomorrow when I wake up. DK should still have the doubling tomorrow, and hopefully still be high 60s.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Sorry if you took that the wrong way. Just good natured ribbing, and by no means a personal shot.

*Thumbs up* Its all good :P
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.

From my understanding, Link is usually used as the base for the extrapolated standings in all the summer contests. Who is used as the base for the Spring contest then? If it's Sephiroth, isn't he infamous for having inconsistent performances?
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TOOMMMAAATOOOO SAAAAUUUUCCCCEEEE!
(he seems pumped....perhaps?)

Jeez. I should have never given Fisher the benefit of the doubt in the Oracle Challenge. Ah well, rather than cheer on Sam due to my poor prediction, I'd rather cheer on DK. I want his second round match to garner some discussion, at least.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Man, the vote totals in this match suck so far.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

I wish that Ceej would add a chart with how many people picked each character as their champ in the stats page, and not just who the Top 50 have. It would give a good idea to the mindset of most bracket makers...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

Creativename claims that the stats are more or less accurate due to "stability" or whatever in the least squares regression for Sp2K5 extrapolated stats. CATS/Master Chief seems to indicate they might be accurate, as well. That's about all the evidence there is right now.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Well, since DK broke his streak of only having close matches...

Frog is going to break 40% on Samus next round and become definitively the most enigmatic character in the contest, while making Riku >>> Sora in the stats. Book it.
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Welcome to Moonside. Wecomel to Soonmide. Moonwel ot cosidme

Donkey Kong 70% 3075
Sam Fisher 30% 1318
TOTAL VOTES 4393
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Sephriroth is inconsistent, but I've been using creative's Least Squares thing in my arguments.

Bowser's best performance was against Sephiroth, and that could very well be because Bowser was not only the only Mario rep in the contest...

No offense, but this is without a doubt the single dumbest argument against the villain contest that there is. I don't know why people keep bringing it up.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Well, since DK broke his streak of only having close matches...

Actually, DK has never had a close first round match. He broke 60 on Bub and Vyse, and only got 43% on Vivi last year. It's his second round matches that are close.

DUN DUN DUN!
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Oh. Well, then, let me rephrase that.

Frog is going to break 40% on Samus next round and become definitively the most enigmatic character in the contest, while making Riku >>> Sora in the stats. Book it.
---
Welcome to Moonside. Wecomel to Soonmide. Moonwel ot cosidme

What's the "Least Squares" thing?


~RPGGamer~

...and DK dips under 70% after holding it for an hour.
---
The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters

Probably, oh well, whatever >_>
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.

Master Chief bombing against CATS really makes me think that Frog is going to get his ass handed to him hard next round.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

After 1 hour, this match has 4508 votes.

Lloyd/Wesker - 5101
Samus/Yuri - 4934
Kirby/Cecil - 5071
MC/CATS - 5359

In other words, low vote totals ahoy!
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Eww, 4500?

Looks like my assumption of this match being on par with flies screwing in terms of excitement was correct.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Well, it's a match featuring characters most people consider to be bland. It's no surprise the totals are low.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

No Ulti, you see, Frog always has nearly the same number of people vote for him every match. That's why every single one of his matches have been close than 48/52. This is obviously the truth.

However, Samus is a little stronger than any of his previous opponents, so maybe she does better than 52%... no way she'll break 60% though. In all likelyhood, it'll be much closer than that.
---
Welcome to Moonside. Wecomel to Soonmide. Moonwel ot cosidme

However, Samus is a little stronger than any of his previous opponents

*gives you the award for Understatement of the Contest*
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

I still think having the matches being labeled "Villains Contest" helped mainstream non-RPG villains while not affecting RPG characters like Sephiroth due to his fans liking him as such instead of just as a villain. >_>

I don't know if anything could happen this contest to change my mind, either...

===
Oh. My. God.
Did the PS2's light just change color...?!

At least I won something.
---
Welcome to Moonside. Wecomel to Soonmide. Moonwel ot cosidme

I don't know if anything could happen this contest to change my mind, either...

Not even the characters living up to their numbers?
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

For some reason, I don't see Frog quite getting mauled next round. Yes, Liquid failed us. Yes, Master Chief failed us. But for the life of me, I can't imagine taking Diablo over Frog. Frog being below 25% against Base Link just doesn't ring right with me.
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Hail to the Queen of Blades.

I don't know if anything could happen this contest to change my mind, either...

Common sense, maybe?

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/5/2005 3:57:23 AM | Message Detail | #079
Creativename claims that the stats are more or less accurate due to "stability" or whatever in the least squares regression for Sp2K5 extrapolated stats. CATS/Master Chief seems to indicate they might be accurate, as well. That's about all the evidence there is right now.

Actually I never intended to imply that the Villain Contest stats were more reliable due to the regression being stable. I was just commenting on how I found that stability surprising; I was expecting all sorts of wackiness.

Though I, for one, trust the Spring stats as much as any others we've seen. (and I suppose the stability would indeed bolster this position) Certainly in the case of CATS I trusted them, and I also believe they give a more reasonable placing of Bowser than what we've seen. Given Bowser's impressive track record, that strength level seems more logical than his ranking in 2K3.

And Ganon's LSE strength was not very different from his 2K3 strength (only about a point higher).

Diablo and Ocelot might shed more light on this, but I personally don't expect them to be all that different in strength during this contest from their previous placements.
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

I've only got one argument I use for the Ganondorf/Bowser increases. And that is as follows:

"Sephiroth" occupied 49/50 of the top 50 entrants. So, in the later rounds, a small %age of the voters who would have voted Sephiroth thought to themselves "wow, that's kinda lame that this contest is that predictable, let's shake this up".

And so they did. It makes perfect sense to me. It's the way I thought, certainly I can't be unique.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!