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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 182
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/4/2005 5:31:43 PM | Message Detail
ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO CATS!
http://www.ocf.berkeley.edu/~dscotton/kaxon_vote_2005-08-04.png


*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Spring 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/27

All Time Extrapolated Standings:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/alltimexsts.htm



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251



!yawa tsoP
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/4/2005 5:32:11 PM | Message Detail
tag
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 15/17 points
Current Match Prediction: Donkey Kong vs. Sam Fisher
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/4/2005 5:32:43 PM | Message Detail
He's the leader of the bunch, you know him well!
He's finally back to kick some tail!
He's bigger, faster, and stronger, too!
He's the first member of the DK Crew!
DK! Donkey Kong! DK! Donkey Kong is here!
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/4/2005 5:35:26 PM | Message Detail
His coconut gun can fire in spurts!
If he shoots ya, it's gonna hurt!
---
The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 8/4/2005 5:36:39 PM | Message Detail
"No Boundaries" by Michael Angelo, one of the greatest things to happen to music.

http://www.angelo.com/No_Boundaries.mp3

---
2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/4/2005 5:38:19 PM | Message Detail
DK > MC

BOOK IT!
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Master Chief vs. CATS - Bracket: MC - Vote: CATS (15/16)
From: Jericoholic | Posted: 8/4/2005 5:41:38 PM | Message Detail
Already?

---
I don't have an ego.
I'm way too cool for that.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/4/2005 5:54:16 PM | Message Detail
Does anyone have the glitched poll results for 2k3 Sam Fisher vs. Magus?
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 15/17 points
Current Match Prediction: Donkey Kong vs. Sam Fisher
From: TheGreatMaster | Posted: 8/4/2005 6:05:15 PM | Message Detail
So what percentage do people think DK will get tomorrow?

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/4/2005 6:06:08 PM | Message Detail
I think DK is gonna bomb tomorrow and get only 54% in the match with the lowest vote totals thus far.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 15/17 points
Current Match Prediction: Donkey Kong vs. Sam Fisher
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/4/2005 6:10:04 PM | Message Detail
I was going to ask why this was up so early, then I saw the link. TRE > most.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/4/2005 11:27:18 PM | Message Detail
I was going to ask why this was up so early, then I saw the link. TRE > most.

Heh, I wish I could take credit for it. I was 2nd, Kaxon was the one who got the first vote.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/4/2005 11:27:59 PM | Message Detail
You never should have revealed your method.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 8/4/2005 11:30:55 PM | Message Detail
ALL YOUR TAG ARE BELONG TO THIS TOPIC
---
For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: raytan7585 | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:00:00 AM | Message Detail
Terra >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Dante

---
Score: 16/17 Now: DK vs Sam Fisher
MechaMachine Score: 16/17 Pick: DK over Sam Fisher
From: Applekidjosh | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:00:18 AM | Message Detail
Why is this division so pathetically weak compared to some of the others? The only really strong character here is Crono... and of course, he isn't even 1 seeded. This DK/Sam match especially makes me sick. Whoever wins, we lose, cause it means Master Chief gets a free win and proceeds further in the tournament than he deserves to.
---
Currently sitting pretty at #18 on the leaderboard
From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:01:40 AM | Message Detail
Master Chief can have all his fancy gadgets, nothing he has can match Donkey Kong's Coconut Gun that fires in spurts.
From: Applekidjosh | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:03:54 AM | Message Detail
"His Needler Gun can fire in spurts if he shoots ya, it's gonna hurt!"

And just wanted to put an extra post out there, since I've moved up the leaderboard again... I might as well brag while I can!
---
Currently sitting pretty at #16 on the leaderboard
From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:06:33 AM | Message Detail
It would be so hillarious if DK beat Chief, Cjay probably wanted MC to get a free trip to the sweet sixteen for once and he flops again.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:06:52 AM | Message Detail
Heh, DK should have his Coconut Gun in the match picture next round.
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:07:19 AM | Message Detail
I think DK is gonna bomb tomorrow and get only 54% in the match with the lowest vote totals thus far.

You were saying?
---
Summer Contest 2005 - Points: 16/17
Today's Prediction: Donkey Kong - Tomorrow: Tommy Vercetti
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:07:20 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:19:42 AM | Message Detail
Why is this division so pathetically weak compared to some of the others? The only really strong character here is Crono... and of course, he isn't even 1 seeded. This DK/Sam match especially makes me sick. Whoever wins, we lose, cause it means Master Chief gets a free win and proceeds further in the tournament than he deserves to.

Indeed...the bracket would be about 20 times better if Terra and Chief were switched.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:27:53 AM | Message Detail
Heh, it took DK 25 minutes to build a 1000 vote lead. Not bad.

Watch out, Chief! The big ape's a-comin'!
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: The Doppleganger | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:29:19 AM | Message Detail
*Is still awaiting that logical explanation of Bowser over Snake from Ulti >_>*
---
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:30:51 AM | Message Detail
From: The Doppleganger | Posted: 8/5/2005 3:22:07 AM | Message Detail | #485
Give me a logical reason for Bowser over Snake, Ulti. Seriously, lets hear it. A good solid explanation.


Name the last time a Metal Gear Solid character was impressive in one of these contests. 2002 Snake or 2003 Snake are pretty much the only choices, and 2003 Snake was the 1 seed in the weakest division in 2003 yet never came close to Mega Man.

Anyway, adjusted Snake scores 47.4% on Spring 2005 Bowser. Unadjusted scores 42.74%. That's a lot of ground for Snake to make up given everyone else in the series doing nothing in these contest, and he's never faced an elite Nintendo character (unless you count Mega Man as getting most of his votes from Nintendo fans).

*expects the standard "Spring 2005 stats are worthless" response*

Meh, that's your own problem. Anyone who thinks that an entire contest is worthless just because it will make them feel better about some of their picks can dig their own hole all they want.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:31:30 AM | Message Detail
Doppleganger: It's called a Spring Contest. Get one.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:32:02 AM | Message Detail
Name the last time a Metal Gear Solid character was impressive in one of these contests.

Liquid Snake. SC2k4.
---
The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:32:07 AM | Message Detail
Go Nemesis!
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:32:09 AM | Message Detail
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/5/2005 3:31:30 AM | Message Detail | #027
Doppleganger: It's called a Spring Contest. Get one.


You picked Snake to beat Bowser. Personally, he'll be lucky to beat Zelda.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: The Doppleganger | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:32:20 AM | Message Detail
Spring Contest isn't good enough <_< *Sees you were in the top 10 and won the Guru Contest* Hmm... >_>
*Reads Ulti's stuff*
---
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:33:06 AM | Message Detail
I still don't see Snake having too much trouble with Zelda.
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:33:41 AM | Message Detail
Liquid Snake. SC2k4.

True, and then he turned around and bombed against Sephiroth. And then Frog bombed against Riku. And then Master Chief bombed against CATS. That entire trio was proven to be horribly overrated from the beginning.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:34:42 AM | Message Detail
Name the last time a Metal Gear Solid character was impressive in one of these contests.

Snake/Tanner...

*runs*
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:35:04 AM | Message Detail
...That was still the last time >_>

Actually, I take that back.

Snake/Tanner. Then it kinda went downhill.
---
The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:35:30 AM | Message Detail
Why not?
---
Summer Contest 2005 - Points: 16/17
Today's Prediction: Donkey Kong - Tomorrow: Tommy Vercetti
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:35:38 AM | Message Detail
You picked Snake to beat Bowser. Personally, he'll be lucky to beat Zelda.

Yes, but I don't deny that Bowser has legitimately increased; my eyes aren't blind to logic, even if it may refute a few of my own choices. Remember, I've long thought that Nintendo was due for an increase (well before the contest started). However, I just decided to roll the dice with Snake. Call it fanboyism or what have you, but I still believe he has what it takes to make the Final Four.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:37:11 AM | Message Detail
Characters from stealth/shooters type games have gone downhill since 2003.

Look at Snake, Jill Valentine, Wesker, and Mr. Fisher himself right now, making DK look stronger than Magus.
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: creativename | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:37:36 AM | Message Detail
Holy smokes. DK dominating here.

Looks like I was wrong. DK vs. Master Chief might be a match after all.

At least we now see that Samus didn't really overperform on him last year. And if we want to get into speculation, this would support the "Magus and Frog have more static/loyal fanbases than other people" theory. The problem with that is that this clearly doesn't apply to Crono; one could speculate that this is because of the "similar name as the game" thing...

Anyway, I think Kefka tomorrow will at least keep it close. I might be wrong again, but I disagree with those that say Kefka has no shot.
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: The Doppleganger | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:38:04 AM | Message Detail
*expects the standard "Spring 2005 stats are worthless" response*

Meh, that's your own problem. Anyone who thinks that an entire contest is worthless just because it will make them feel better about some of their picks can dig their own hole all they want.


Ahh, but you also must take other things than just ONE contest into accounting, no? Think about it. Why would Snake, the main character of a very succesful series, lose to the likes of Zelda, the chick who Link must save in basically most of the Zelda Series(oooh her titles in the name, scary >_>), over SOLID SNAKE? And then you have Bowser...again, the villain of the Mario Series, another tough opponent for Snake. Close Match? Of course. Bowser having enough to beat Snake? Hell no. Bowser's best performance was against Sephiroth, and that could very well be because Bowser was not only the only Mario rep in the contest, Seph has prolly gained some anti-votes over the years as well. I'm not saying Snake has an easy road, hell no, but these next opponents are beatable. You'll see.
---
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
"Masa, everytime I talk to you, my urge for hot pockets rises. Damn you" - Linky.
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:39:02 AM | Message Detail
"Magus and Frog have more static/loyal fanbases than other people"

*looks at Magus/Crono*

...Yep.
---
The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:39:03 AM | Message Detail
DK > Magus

The stats never lie!!!

*flees*
---
ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:39:24 AM | Message Detail
Actually, this makes me wonder if Gabe Logan would be even MORE pathetic than he was in 2002...
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: creativename | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:39:46 AM | Message Detail
Actually, my own "uncorrupted" expectations are that Kefka will win tomorrow.
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:41:21 AM | Message Detail
Donkey Kong 70.59% 2400
Sam Fisher 29.41% 1000
TOTAL VOTES 3400

Fisher hits 1000.
---
The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:42:27 AM | Message Detail
*expects the standard "Spring 2005 stats are worthless" response*

Explain this Ulti. Why oh why did Bowser and Ganondorf both do better against Sephiroth than they should have, in a similar fashion (Bowser did better than Mario... come on, man). Certainly it couldn't be because they were facing a weaker Sephiroth. No, that would be too simple. Obviously Bowser and Ganondorf both increased proportionally.

I don't think they're worthless at all, as long as you accept that the Sephiroth there was not the same Sephiroth we all know and love here.
---
Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:42:31 AM | Message Detail
making DK look stronger than Magus.

2k3 is a different year, you know.

Why would Snake, the main character of a very succesful series, lose to the likes of Zelda, the chick who Link must save in basically most of the Zelda Series(oooh her titles in the name, scary >_>), over SOLID SNAKE?

...What are you trying to say?

and that could very well be because Bowser was not only the only Mario rep in the contest

Franchise voting didn't help everyone but Bowser, eh?

---
Summer Contest 2005 - Points: 16/17
Today's Prediction: Donkey Kong - Tomorrow: Tommy Vercetti
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:42:43 AM | Message Detail
Why would Snake, the main character of a very succesful series, lose to the likes of Zelda, the chick who Link must save in basically most of the Zelda Series(oooh her titles in the name, scary >_>), over SOLID SNAKE? And then you have Bowser...again, the villain of the Mario Series, another tough opponent for Snake. Close Match? Of course. Bowser having enough to beat Snake? Hell no.

Heh, I love this articulate, thoroughly researched, downright crushing use of logic and recent statistical evidence. I'm so intrigued, in fact, that I can't help but try your brilliant method myself:

So, Sam Fisher, a friggin' secret agent with gadgets, gizmos, weapons, and three million sellers is supposed to lose to an APE WITH A TIE?! HELL NO!
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:43:10 AM | Message Detail
Gotta love nice round numbers.

Still, this has got to be the ONLY time Donkey Kong has ever looked impressive. Still, he's got his work cut out to beat the Chief, regardless. He's behind him, no matter what stats you use.

I think he'll at least give MC a good fight though.
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:44:21 AM | Message Detail
2k3 is a different year, you know.

That was part of my point as to how badly characters from that genre have decreased since then. It was more in jest, but still making a point.
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
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